645am OBS, Tuesday May 7th
Another beautiful morning with clouds favoring Windward and Mauka as moderate to fresh ENE trades fill in toward lunch, then trending down into the week. Small Craft Adv for east half of the state.
Dropping small NNW. Small SSW. Solid East trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Dropping 13 sec NNW + tiny trade wrap. Semi-bumpy early, improving slightly by mid-morning. Sunset 1-3'; Rocky Pt 1-2' occ. 3'; Pipe 1-2' occ. 2.5'; Chuns 1-2' occ. 3'; Laniakea 1-3'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'. Mostly clear skies.West:
Dropping 13 sec NNW + small SSW. Clean under lite to moderate ENE trades, holding all day. Makaha is 1-2' maybe a plus set on the mixed plate. Mostly clear skies.Town:
Holding 15 sec SSW with long lulls. Surf's mostly clean offshores from the ENE trades. Waikiki reefs are 1-2'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2' occ. 2.5. Mostly clear skies.Diamond Head:
Holding 15 sec SSW with long lulls + ENE trade wrap. Bumpy from the moderate to fresh ENE trades. Surf's 1-2' occ 3' at takeoff on the combo peaks. Scattered clouds.Sandy's:
Holding 15 sec SSW with long lulls +average Trade swell. Surf over the reefs more torn up than the shorebreak from the fresh trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-3' and bumpy. Shorebreak is better at 1-3' on the combo peaks, especially at Middles to Chambers under scattered clouds.East Makapu'u:
Down and dropping 7 sec ENE trade swell. Bumpy and mushy due to fresh trades. Surf's 2-3' and focused on the outside left near the rocks and middle. Shore break looking ok and smaller on the right side. Broken clouds.Winds
10-25mph ENE Trade
10-20mph ENE Trade
5-15mph ENE Trade
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes
rain and isol. T storms
5-10mph ENE Trades very light
plenty rain and isol. T storms
North
Primary
Dropping 12s NWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Holding 8s NEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Primary
Dropping 11s NWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Holding 8s NEHaw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Fair
Primary
Dropping 9s NWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Dropping 7s NEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Dropping 9s NWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Holding 7s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Rising 11s NNWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Holding 7s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair
West
Primary
Dropping 12s NWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair
Primary
Dropping 11s NWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Up & Rising 21s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SSWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Dropping 9s NWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good offshores
Primary
Up & holding 17s SSWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
Dropping 9s NWHaw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Good
Primary
Dropping Slow 15s SSWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
Rising 11s NNWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
South
Primary
Dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Rising Later 23s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 21s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Dropping 13s SHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair early , Better Later
isolated 3' later
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SSWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Dropping 13s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores
5' later
Primary
Up & holding 17s SSWHaw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Dropping Slow 15s SSWHaw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
east
Primary
Dropping 8s ENEHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Holding 8s ENEHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Dropping 7s ENEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Typical
Primary
Holding 5s ENEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Typical
Primary
Holding 5s ENEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Typical
Current Swells:
Tuesday 05/07Primary: Dropping 8s ENE surf @2-3
Marine Warnings:
Tuesday 05/07Small Craft Advisory for Maui to Big Island
Sailing Report:
Tuesday 05/07Good with ENE trades filling in at 10-25mph.
Diving Report:
Tuesday 05/07North shores: Poor-fair due to NNW swell and fresh side-offshores filling. Better for deeper dives; West shores: Good for most zones due to small NNW/SSW swell and moderate offshores; better for deeper dives. South shores: Fair overall for due to small surf and moderate trades but better for deeper dives. East shores: Poor due to solid surf and fresh onshores.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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