SURF N SEA 728 BLOWOUT

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SURF BOARD FACTORY STEP UP NOV.22 DEC 2019

645am Obs Tuesday Jan 28th 2020

Calm to Light NE Trades veering variable then midday seabreezes. No advisories.

Small to moderate NW, small ENE wind swell, and reinforced inconsistent SSW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon & 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Down and Dropping 13sec NW. Some ruffle here and there but clean. Sunset to Pipe are about 3-5'; Chun's-Laniakea-Ali'i 3-4' maybe a plus; clear, cool and crisp dawn.
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West:

Down and Dropping NW. Makaha is 2-3'+ and clean, lite offshores veering to onshore seabreezes late AM under clear skies.
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Town:

Up and Holding a tiny 14sec SSW. Kewalos to Courts and Bowls to Kaisers all smooth at 1 occ but solid 2' under clear skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Up and Holding small SSW with sets of 1 to 2' and smooth but slight seabreezes midday under clear skies.

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Sandy's:

Holding tiny 8sec E Trade wind swell and some occ SSW. Sandy's is 1-2' from Full Pt/Half Pt with nice smooth texture from the trades under mostly clear skies.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding tiny East trade swell at 1-2' at Makapu'u with smooth water and mostly clear skies.
Cholos 728×90 Generic

Winds

Tuesday
Range:
5-10mph NE Trade

Wednesday
Range:
5-10mph Variables
SE to SW afternoon
Thursday
Range:
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes

Friday
Range:
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes

Saturday
Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

North

Tuesday
01/28

Primary

Dropping 14s NW
Haw: 3-5 occ +
Face: 5-9 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy late-morning

Wednesday
01/29

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Rising Midday 15s WNW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Smooth early-mushy late-morning
4pm
Thursday
01/30

Primary

Dropping Slow 14s WNW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy late-morning

Friday
01/31

Primary

Rising 14s NW
Haw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Isol 15' early afternoon
Saturday
02/01

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

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West

Tuesday
01/28

Primary

Dropping 14s NW
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +

Secondary

Up & holding 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth early-mushy late-morning
Wednesday
01/29

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth early-mushy late-morning
Thursday
01/30

Primary

Dropping Slow 14s WNW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+

Secondary

Dropping 10s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth early-mushy late-morning
Friday
01/31

Primary

Rising 14s NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+

Secondary

Rising 14s SSE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Good
Saturday
02/01

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18

Secondary

Holding 12s SSE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Good
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South

Tuesday
01/28

Primary

Up & holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy late-morning

Wednesday
01/29

Primary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy midday

Thursday
01/30

Primary

Dropping 10s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy midday

Friday
01/31

Primary

Rising 14s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy midday

Saturday
02/01

Primary

Holding 12s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
trades back
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east

Tuesday
01/28

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
smooth

Wednesday
01/29

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Thursday
01/30

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Friday
01/31

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Saturday
02/01

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical
Trades back
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Current Swells:

Tuesday 01/28
Primary: Dropping 14s NW surf @3-5 occ + 
Secondary: Up & holding 14s SSW surf @1-2 
Third: Holding 8s ENE surf @1-2 
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   01/28
None
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   01/28
Poor to Fair with calm to lite NE trade flow and Variables along with onshore seabreezes midday possible
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   01/28
Improving: Poor-fair for select deep North Shore dive zones with a NW swell lingering. Good for deep dives along isolated West shores. South looks good for select prime zones with small surf. East is good for inside reefs and good for select outside reefs from small surf and lite winds.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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