Cholos 728×90 Generic

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Surf n Sea 728×90 generic 1/22/21

645am OBS Monday Oct 18th

Beautiful and partly cloudy this morning w/ ENE trades of 10-20+mph by noon. Small Craft Adv from Maui though Big Island waters.

Slowly fading average Trade swell. Minimal southerly energy. Tiny/small fading North . Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon & 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Down and Dropping small 9 sec North with some bump on it. Sunset Pt. and Rocky's are 1- occ. 2' Pipe/Backdoor 0-1'. Chuns 1-occ. 2'; Laniakea 1-soft 2', Haleiwa is Flat -1' under broken clouds.
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West:

Down and Dropping North and South. Makaha is mostly Flat-1' with occasional 1.5'. Nice light offshores. Best for diving, fishing, or sailing. Clear skies.
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Town:

Down and dropping 12sec SSW and a 9 sec SE wrap. Waikiki is clean w/ light offshores but just 0- occ.1.5'. Top reefs: Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-occ 1.5' maybe occ weak 2' nice conditions under clear skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Down and dropping 9 sec SE wrap + traces of SSW + minor trade wrap. Surf's 1- 2' on combo peaks. Might be a plus now and then. It's bumpy with ENE trades under mostly clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Holding 9 sec SE wrap + traces of SSW + minor trade wrap. Fair side-offshores w/ moderate ENE trades. Full Pt-Half Pt are 1-2' maybe occ. 2.5' not organized, Shore break still looking nice with sandbars, breaking 1-2' mostly on combo peaks under scattered clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Dropping 7 sec trade swell with some N getting into keiki side. Light to moderate trades continuing to chop things up. Surf's 1-2' maybe occ. 2.5' breaking occasionally on the outside left, but mostly in the shorebreak throughout the bay. Keiki corner is 1-2' with patchy cloudy skies.
Upper Cervical Hawaii 728×90

Winds

Monday
Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

Tuesday
Range:
5-15+mph NE Trade

Wednesday
Range:
5-15+mph NE Trade

Thursday
Range:
5-15+mph ENE Trade

Friday
Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

North

Monday
10/18

Primary

Dropping 9s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Rising Later 14s N
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair-Good side-offshore

Tuesday
10/19

Primary

Up & holding 12s N
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Rising Late Evening 19s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair-Good side-offshore

Wednesday
10/20

Primary

Rising 16s N
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
8' peak-isolated reefs
Thursday
10/21

Primary

Dropping 13s N
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair side-offshores

Friday
10/22

Primary

Rising 14s N
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+

Secondary

Dropping 11s N
Haw: 3-5 occ +
Face: 5-9 occ +
Fair side-offshores

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West

Monday
10/18

Primary

Holding 12s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 9s N
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores
Tuesday
10/19

Primary

Up & holding 12s N
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Holding 9s SE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
Wednesday
10/20

Primary

Rising 16s N
Haw: 2-5
Face: 3-8

Secondary

Up & Rising 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair-Good side-offshore
Thursday
10/21

Primary

Dropping 13s N
Haw: 2-5
Face: 3-8

Secondary

Holding 13s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair side-offshores
Friday
10/22

Primary

Rising 14s N
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

Rising 18s S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair side-offshores
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South

Monday
10/18

Primary

Holding 12s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 9s SSE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores

Tuesday
10/19

Primary

Holding 9s SE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Wednesday
10/20

Primary

Up & Rising 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Thursday
10/21

Primary

Holding 13s SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Friday
10/22

Primary

Rising 18s S
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Good

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east

Monday
10/18

Primary

Dropping 7s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Holding 9s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy

Tuesday
10/19

Primary

Holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Wednesday
10/20

Primary

Rising Fast 16s N
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

Thursday
10/21

Primary

Dropping 13s N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

Friday
10/22

Primary

Rising 14s NNE
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

Dropping 11s N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
FUN

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Current Swells:

Monday 10/18
Primary: Dropping 7s ENE surf @1-2+ 
Secondary: Dropping 9s N surf @1-2 
Third: Holding 12s SSW surf @1 occ 2 
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   10/18
Small Craft Adv from Maui Big island
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Sailing Report:

Monday   10/18
Good later, w/ minor open ocean swell and moderate to fresh paces filling in 10-20+ mph ENE by mid to late morning
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Diving Report:

Monday   10/18
North Shore: fair, best for deeper zone due to small-tiny N swell and some trade swell wrap; fresh side offshores filling by late am; West: good (still best for deeper dives) with tiny N and S swells and lite to moderate trades for offshores; South shores: fair-good w/ tiny leftover S swell and fresh trades filling in by late am; better for deeper dives and select prime zones. East shores: fair for most inside zones and overall poor for outside reef zones w/ fresh ENE trades.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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