615am OBS, Tuesday, October 8th
Scattered clouds with isolated windward and mauka showers. Light to moderate NE trades filling to moderate paces towards lunch with a mix of afternoon sea breezes for the leeward coasts. No marine warnings.
Big Picture updated 10/5. Moderate NNW. Fun South. Tiny ENE trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Holding 13 sec NNW. Clean conditions early due to a light side-offshore breeze but becoming more textured later with a NE tilt in the wind. Sunset 3-5'; Rocky Pt 2-4'; Pipe 2-3'+; Chuns 2-3'+; Laniakea 2-4'+; Ali'i Beach Park 2-3'+. Scattered clouds.West:
Holding 13 sec NNW + Up & Dropping 13 sec South. Clean conditions under light offshore winds but sea breezes mixing in towards late morning. Makaha is a mixed plate of 2-3' when the sets come. Mostly clear skies.Town:
Dropping 13 sec South. Clean conditions due to light offshore winds, but surf's very inconsistent. Waikiki reefs are 1-2' occ. +; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 2-3' occ. +. Partly cloudy skies.Diamond Head:
Dropping 13 sec South. A little cleaner than yesterday under light to moderate side-offshore trades with long lulls in between sets. Surf's 2-3' occ. + at takeoff. Scattered clouds.Sandy's:
Dropping 13 sec South. Some ruffle and texture in the water but not too bad due to a NE tilt in the trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 2-3'. Shorebreak is cleaner at 2-3' with treacherous backwash. Partly cloudy skies.East Makapu'u:
Holding 6 sec ENE trade wind swell + Holding North wrap. Bumpy conditions due to moderate trades. Surf's 1-2' and breaking along the shore across the bay. Scattered clouds.Winds
10-20mph NE Trade
10-20+mph NE Trade
10-20mph NE to ENE
5-15+mph ENE Trade
5-15+mph ENE Trade
North
Primary
Holding 13s NNWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair side-offshores
Primary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Holding 10s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Rising Nightime 13s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 11s NHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
3'+ later
West
Primary
Holding 13s NNWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Dropping 13s SHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Dropping 12s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair side-offshores
Primary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Dropping 12s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Holding 10s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Up & Rising 18s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 11s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & holding 15s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
South
Primary
Dropping 13s SHaw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Dropping 12s SHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 12s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Rising 20s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Dropping 11s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
3' later
Primary
Up & holding 15s SHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
east
Primary
Holding 6s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Holding 13s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
bumpy
North wrap
Primary
Holding 6s NEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 12s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy
North wrap
Primary
Dropping 6s NEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 11s NHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
bumpy
North wrap
Primary
Holding 6s ENEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Dropping 10s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
slightly choppy
North wrap
Primary
Holding 5s ENEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising Slow 11s NHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Current Swells:
Tuesday 10/08Primary: Holding 13s NNW surf @3-5
Secondary: Dropping 13s S surf @2-3 occ +
Third: Holding 6s ENE surf @1-2
Marine Warnings:
Tuesday 10/08No marine warnings.
Sailing Report:
Tuesday 10/08Good esp. toward lunch into afternoon due to moderate 10-20 mph NE trades.
Diving Report:
Tuesday 10/08North shores: Poor due to moderate surf (best bet deeper dives) with lite to moderate side-offshore trades under partly cloudy skies. West shores: Fair to good early fair later due to small to moderate surf (best bet deeper dives) with lite offshore trades and an afternoon sea breeze mix under mostly clear skies. South shores: Poor due to moderate surf (best bet deeper dives) with lite offshore trades under mostly clear skies. East shores: Fair overall due to small surf (best bet deeper dives) with moderate onshore trades all day, under partly cloudy skies.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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