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Seaspecs 728 Buy2 get1 Aug 2018 B

645am OBS Wednesday Nov 14th

Cloudy semi rainy morning with calm light E to SE winds veering variable to onshore seabreezes toward noon. High Surf Advisories for NW shores.

SNN BIG PICTURE Monday 11/12/18 + latest El Nino Update! Up on Moderate-high NNW + tiny ENE trade swell + a tiny SW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, 12, 3 & 5p recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Way up & Holding 14sec NNW. Surf is Double-Triple overhead with good lite offshores. Sunset Beach about 5-8' with poor to fair shape. Pipe-OTW zone 3-6'; Laniakea 5-7' ooc.+, Ali'i Beach 3-5' under clouds, haze, and rain (Hawaiian Pro Top 96 8am).
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West:

Way up & Holding 14sec NNW + trace of tiny SW. Makaha is 2-4 with some 5' sets with good form and smooth with clam to lite offshores early (nut onshore seabreezes late morning) under cloudy skies.
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Town:

Holding 14sec SW. Surf is solid waist high or 2' but with long waits. Water's smooth but mushy seabreezes toward noon from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers, Threes-Pops-Queens-Publics 0-2' or mostly thigh-waist high sets under cloudy skies.
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Diamond Head:

Holding a small SW. Surf is semi-smooth but overall weak at 0-1 occ 2' with light side shores under cloudy skies.
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Sandy's:

Up & Holding the North wrap + a tiny Trade + SW mix. Surf is semi-smooth at 1-3' from Full Pt. with some slammers in the shorebreak under clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and Holding N wrap + the tiny 8sec East trade swell. Makapu'u is 2-3' occ higher & smooth overall from the Middle to Keiki's...solid 3' but closing out under broken clouds.
Surf n Sea Blow Out Nov-Jan19

Weather

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
3mph WSW

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 87°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
13mph NNE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 87°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
18mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 86°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
23mph NE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph NE

Range:
5-10mph Variables

Range:
5-15mph NE Trade
Increasing
Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

North

Wednesday
11/14

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14

Secondary

Dropping 9s NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Good

Thursday
11/15

Primary

Holding 12s NNW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

Dropping 9s NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good

Friday
11/16

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8

Secondary

Dropping 10s N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Fair to good

Saturday
11/17

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Dropping 10s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore

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West

Wednesday
11/14

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+

Secondary

Rising 16s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good
Thursday
11/15

Primary

Holding 12s NNW
Haw: 2-5
Face: 3-8

Secondary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Friday
11/16

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Rising 14s SSE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair to good
Saturday
11/17

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Holding 13s SSE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair-Good side-offshore
Sunday
11/18

Primary

Dropping 10s NNW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3

Secondary

Holding 12s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
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South

Wednesday
11/14

Primary

Rising 16s SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 11s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good

Thursday
11/15

Primary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Friday
11/16

Primary

Rising 14s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Dropping 15s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good

Saturday
11/17

Primary

Holding 13s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Dropping 14s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Holding 12s SSE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

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east

Wednesday
11/14

Primary

Holding 13s N
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +

Secondary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good

Thursday
11/15

Primary

Holding 11s N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Onshore

Friday
11/16

Primary

Holding 10s N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Rising 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Choppy

Saturday
11/17

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

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Current Swells:

Wednesday 11/14
Primary: Rising 14s NNW surf @5-8 
Secondary: Holding 13s N surf @2-3 occ + 
Third: Rising 16s SW surf @1-2 
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   11/14
High Surf Adv for NW shores + isolated Brown Water Adv
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   11/14
Poor with calm to light ENE trades veering to Variable then seabreezes
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   11/14
Improving but still Isolated remnant Brown water all shores. Poor for North shores and fair for select deeper West shores + good for select south shore zones; fair for select 'inside reefs' and poor for most 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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