7am OBS Saturday, September 30th
Breezy fall morning w/ mostly sunny skies expected throughout the day, along with moderate to fresh East trades holding. Small Craft Advisory for Molokai-Big Island channel and Big Island leeward & SE waters thru Sunday.
Big Picture updated 9/24. Tiny SSW-SW, small NNE, and average ENE trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).

North Shore:
Dropping 10 sec NNE + NE trade swell wrap. Surfs clean due to moderate offshores. Sunset Pt 1-occ. 2'; Rocky Pt 1-occ. 2'; Pipe 0-1'; Chuns 1- occ. 2'; Laniakea 1-2' occ. +; Ali'i Beach Park 0-1'. Partly cloudy skies.
West:
Dropping 10 sec S-SSW + Dropping 14 sec SW. Surf's clean early due to moderate offshores. Makaha is 0-1.5' w/ mostly clear skies.
Town:
Dropping 10 sec S-SSW + Dropping 14 sec SW. Mostly clean conditions due to moderate side-offshore trades. Waikiki reefs are 1-occ. 2'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are mostly 1-2' on the sets. Partly cloudy skies.
Diamond Head:
Dropping 10 sec S-SSW + Dropping 14 sec SW + dropping trade swell wrap. Bumpy with moderate-fresh East sideshores. Surf's 2-3' at take-off on combo peaks. Mostly clear skies.
Sandy's:
Dropping 10 sec S-SSW + Dropping 14 sec SW + Dropping 10 sec NNE + ENE trade swell wrap. Textured and bumpy from the moderate-fresh sideshore trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 2-3'+ and bumpy. Shorebreak is more manageable but also solid at 2-3' on the sets. A few clouds.
East Makapu'u:
Dropping 10 sec NNE + Holding 9 sec ENE trade wind swell. Choppy from moderate-fresh onshore trades. Surf's 2-3'+ and breaking on the outside left by the rocks. Keikis is 2-3' w/ the NNE. A few clouds.Winds
10-20+mph East Trade
10-20+mph East Trade
5-15+mph East Trade
5-15mph SE
10-25mph ESE
North
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping Later 8s NEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good
3'+ later
Primary
Up & dropping 14s NNWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Rising Slow 18s WNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
3' later (WNW)
Primary
Up & holding 15s WNWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
West
Primary

Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
Primary

Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Up & dropping 14s NNWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & holding 15s WNWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
South
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair side-offshores
east
Primary
Dropping Later 9s ENEHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Typical
Primary

Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Mushy
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Offshore

Current Swells:
Saturday 09/30Primary: Dropping Later 9s ENE surf @2-3+
Secondary: Dropping 10s S surf @1-2
Third: Dropping 10s NNE surf @1 occ 2

Marine Warnings:
Saturday 09/30Small Craft Advisory for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, and Big Island Leeward & SE waters.

Sailing Report:
Saturday 09/30Good w/ moderate to fresh East trades filling 10-20+ mph.

Diving Report:
Saturday 09/30North Shore: Fair w/ small NNE swell and moderate offshore trades, best bet for deeper dives. West shores: good for most zones and best for deeper dives due to tiny surf and moderate trades filling under mostly clear skies. South shores: Fair for most zones and best for deeper dives due to small surf, moderate side-offshore trades & partly cloudy skies. East shores: Poor for most zones with above average surf, moderate onshore winds and scattered-broken clouds.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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