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HIC 728 OCT 1 2020 OPENING DEALS

645am OBS Monday 10/19/20

Light winds this morning picking up out of the South at 10 to 15mph. Showers early, sun later on. No advisories.

Small NW continues to drop as NE builds. Tiny SSW and East. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon & 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Down and Dropping 10 sec NW. Sunset Pt 2-4',. Rocky Pt 2-3'+. Pipe 2-3'; Chuns to Laniakea 2-3'. Haleiwa 1-2'+. Most spots are Glassy right now. South/onshores likely later. Partly cloudy.
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West:

Down and Dropping 10 sec NW + Dropping 13 sec S. Makaha is 1-3' with residual lump on the surface from yesterday. More mush to come by 10am when winds pick up. Mostly clear skies.
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Town:

Dropping 13 sec S. Surf is weak and wobbly with too much tide right now. Ala Moana to Kaisers are 1- 2'. Waikiki reefs 0-1.5'. South winds likely to increase by mid to late morning-afternoon. Partly cloudy skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Dropping 13 sec S. Surf is 1-2' occ. peaky 3'. Lumpy already plus seabreezes later. Partly cloudy skies.
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Sandy's:

Dropping 13 sec S + tiny 7sec East. Full Pt to 1/2 Pt to Pipe Littles are looking fun with slight lump and breaking at 2-3'. Tides a bit high right now. Shorebreak's also 2-3'. Light side-onshores. Partly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Slowly Dropping 10 sec NNW + Rising 13 sec NE + Holding 7sec East. Surf's 1-2' with occ. 3' sets outside by the rocks. Long period lines coming in with glassy conditions/light offshore winds for now, becoming side-offshore later. Partly cloudy with showers.
Cholos 728 Take Out 728 3/26  …8/27 ON

Winds

Tuesday
Range:
5-10mph South
Becoming variable afternoon
Wednesday
Range:
5-15mph East Trade

Thursday
Range:
5-10mph Variables

Friday
Range:
5-10mph Variables

Saturday
Range:
5-10mph Variables
Dependent on cold front proximity

North

Tuesday
10/20

Primary

Dropping 9s NNW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Rising 12s NE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good

Wednesday
10/21

Primary

Up & holding 10s NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Holding 8s NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good

Thursday
10/22

Primary

Dropping 9s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 8s NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Friday
10/23

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Saturday
10/24

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

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West

Tuesday
10/20

Primary

Dropping 9s NNW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good
Wednesday
10/21

Primary

Up & holding 10s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Rising Slow 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Thursday
10/22

Primary

Up & holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 9s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Friday
10/23

Primary

Dropping Slow 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Saturday
10/24

Primary

Holding 13s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
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South

Tuesday
10/20

Primary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Rising 16s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
poor to fair

Wednesday
10/21

Primary

Rising Slow 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Dropping 11s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good

Thursday
10/22

Primary

Up & holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Friday
10/23

Primary

Dropping Slow 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Saturday
10/24

Primary

Holding 13s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

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east

Tuesday
10/20

Primary

Up & holding 12s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

Dropping 9s N
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
Cleanest early
Wednesday
10/21

Primary

Dropping 10s NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Thursday
10/22

Primary

Dropping 9s NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy

Friday
10/23

Primary

Dropping 8s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 8s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Typical

Saturday
10/24

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Rising 14s NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
slightly bumpy

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Current Swells:

Tuesday 10/20


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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   10/20
None
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   10/20
Poor as light south winds move in along with isolated seabreezes late AM.
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   10/20
Fair to good for deeper prime North shore zones; better deeper waters as new NNW arrives. Good for most West shores esp. good deeper waters; good for most deeper South shore zones esp; good for most inside reefs and good for most outside reefs along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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