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Pico 728 Sandys 4.11.19

645am OBS Thursday 4-25

Moderate ENE trades filling (10-20 mph) with scattered clouds Leeward and broken clouds for Windward/Mauka-Country. Small Craft Adv for Alenuihaha channel.

SNN BIG PICTURE UPDATE: Monday 4/22. Small NNW & South and a small to moderate ENE trade swell. 808-596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3 & 5 recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping 10 sec NNW- still head high or 3' at focal reefs. Surf pretty clean, too with Sunset occ hitting 3'; Pipe-OTW 0-2', Chuns up to 2', Laniakea 2-3' and Haleiwa 1-2' under broken clouds.
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West:

Down and dropping NNW and South. Makaha is up to 2' mostly on combo peaks with nice light offshores with most sets breaking inside with scalttered clouds.
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Town:

Down a hair and holding 13sec South. Surf is semi-clean 1-2' occ 2.5' per 30min with decent shape when sets come. Moderate to fresh side-off with fun, multi-turn sections from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers and Queens under partly cloudy skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Down a hair and holding 13sec South. Surf's fairly Bumpy, crumbly side-offshore, 1-2.5' or chest high & more windblown water later under scattered clouds.
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Sandy's:

Same: Holding ENE trade swell & pulses of South. Surf is 1-2.5' punchy closeouts w/a few fun drops & barrels; focused around Middle Peaks to Gas Chamber with Full+1/2 Point a bit weaker under scattered-broken clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Same: Holding 9sec ENE trade swell. Makapu'u is onshore & choppy with disorganized 2-3' sets just outside left to middle and with 2.5' max sets near Keiki side under broken clouds.
GTH INSTA 728 4.7.19

Winds

Thursday
Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Friday
Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade

Saturday
Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade

Sunday
Range:
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes
NW Flow
Monday
Range:
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes

North

Thursday
04/25

Primary

Holding 10s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Friday
04/26

Primary

Holding 8s NNW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smoother early-mushier midday

Saturday
04/27

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smoother early-mushier midday

Sunday
04/28

Primary

Rising 11s NNW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smoother early-mushier midday
Bigger Later
Monday
04/29

Primary

Rising 11s NNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smoother early-mushier midday

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West

Thursday
04/25

Primary

Holding 10s NNW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Dropping 13s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Friday
04/26

Primary

Holding 8s NNW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smoother early-mushier midday
Saturday
04/27

Primary

Rising 16s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth earlier-mushy mid-morning
Sunday
04/28

Primary

Rising 11s NNW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smoother early-mushier midday
Monday
04/29

Primary

Rising 11s NNW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+

Secondary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smoother early-mushier midday
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South

Thursday
04/25

Primary

Dropping 13s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Offshore

Friday
04/26

Primary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth earlier-mushy mid-morning

Saturday
04/27

Primary

Rising 16s S
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth earlier-mushy mid-morning

Sunday
04/28

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth earlier-mushy mid-morning

Monday
04/29

Primary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Rising Slow 15s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Smooth earlier-mushy mid-morning

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east

Thursday
04/25

Primary

Dropping 9s ENE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Holding 10s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy

Friday
04/26

Primary

Holding 9s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
lite trades
Saturday
04/27

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
lite trades
Sunday
04/28

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Variables
Monday
04/29

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
smooth

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Current Swells:

Thursday 04/25

Secondary: Holding 10s NNW surf @1-2 occ 3 Secondary: Dropping 9s ENE surf @1-2 occ 3 
Third: Dropping 13s S surf @1-2 occ + 
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Marine Warnings:

Thursday   04/25
None except Alenuihaha channel
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Sailing Report:

Thursday   04/25
Good with moderate paced ENE trades
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Diving Report:

Thursday   04/25
Fair to Good for isolated deeper North shores; good for most West shores + fair for select deeper south shores to; Fair for 'inside reefs' and poor for select 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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