630am OBS, Thursday, December 5th
Fairly cloudy skies. Calm to light SSW mix with onshore sea breezes towards lunch. No warnings till 6pm as SCA go into effect with building NE trades.
Solid Moderate NW. Small South dropping. Tiny NE. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Down and dropping 12 sec NW. Light SSW Konas working well for country for now. Sunset 4-6'+; Rocky Pt 3-5'+; Pipe 3-4'+; Chuns 3-5'; Laniakea 3-5'; Ali'i Beach Park 2-4' (Congrats Zoe and Josh!). Broken clouds.West:
Down and dropping 12 sec NW. Light moderate SSW Konas + down and dropping 13 sec South. Surf's terrible side onshore Konas. Makaha is a mixed plate of 2-3 occ 4'.... broken clouds.Town:
Down and dropping 13 sec South. Surf's terrible side onshore Konas. Waikiki reefs are 1-2'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 2'. Broken clouds.Diamond Head:
Down and dropping South. victory at sea. Surf's 2.5' average now. Broken clouds.Sandy's:
Down and dropping South. Complete slop chop due to SSW winds. Full Pt/Half Pt are 2.5'. Shorebreak is also 2.5'. Broken clouds.East Makapu'u:
Down and Dropping 8 sec NE. Nice, smooth light offshores. Surf's 0-1-barely 2' on the shorebreak and spread out across the bay. Broken clouds.Winds
5-15mph SSW Kona
tonight, fresh NE trades
10-25mph NE Trade
5-10mph ESE
10-20mph ENE Trade
10-20mph ENE Trade
North
Primary
Holding 12s NWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
7' late
Primary
Up & dropping 12s NNWHaw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Secondary
Rising Nightime 17s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Poor-fair side-shores
NE trades return
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NNWHaw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
8' midday
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Rising late Afternoon 16s NWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
slightly bumpy
Primary
Up & holding 12s NWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Poor-fair side-shores
West
Primary
Holding 12s NWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Dropping 13s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary
Up & dropping 12s NNWHaw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+
Secondary
Up & Rising 18s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Poor-fair side-shores
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NNWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Up & dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Up & Rising 17s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
slightly bumpy
Primary
Up & holding 12s NWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Poor-fair side-shores
South
Primary
Dropping 13s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Rising Later 19s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
slightly bumpy
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
3' later
Primary
Up & dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Rising 19s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & Rising 17s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Good
3' later
Primary
Dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
east
Primary
Holding 8s NEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Rising Nightime 6s NNEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
divin , paddlin
Primary
Up & holding 7s NEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & dropping 12s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Choppy
North wrap
Primary
Dropping 6s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & Rising 15s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair early , Better Later
North wrap
Primary
Dropping 12s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
North wrap
Primary
Rising 5s NEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Holding 7s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Choppy
Current Swells:
Thursday 12/05Primary: Holding 12s NW surf @4-6
Secondary: Dropping 13s S surf @1-2 occ +
Third: Holding 8s NE surf @0-1.5
Marine Warnings:
Thursday 12/05None for now but SCA go up tonight as fresh NE ramp thru Friday
Sailing Report:
Thursday 12/05Poor due to light SSW Kona winds filling to 5-15mph then mixing with seabreezes nearing lunch into the afternoon.
Diving Report:
Thursday 12/05North shores: Poor due to moderate/high NW surf and Fresh NE trades (deep dives only, best bet). West shores: Poor to Fair due to moderate surf and fresh NE trades filling (deep dives best bet). South shores: Fair to good due to moderate to fresh NE trades (deep dives best bet). East shores: Fair for top zones but fresh NE trades causing chop plus windswell building.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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