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Surf n Sea 728×90 generic 2.1.23—

630am OBS, Friday, October 4th

Mostly clear morning with Light ENE trades filling to moderate paces towards lunch with a mix of afternoon sea breezes for the leeward coasts. No marine warnings.

Declining Small SSW & NNW & holding small trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Down and dropping 11 sec N to NNW. Clean, smooth light offshores. Sunset 0-1'; Rocky Pt 1-2'; Pipe 0-1/2'; Chuns 1-2'; Laniakea 1-2.5'; Ali'i Beach Park 0-1/2' under scattered clouds.
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West:

Down and dropping 14 sec SSW + 11 sec NNW. Clean under light offshores but sea breezes mixing in towards late morning. Makaha is 0-1 occ soft 2' combo peaks. Clear skies.
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Town:

Down and dropping 14 sec SSW. Clean due to light offshores. Waikiki reefs are 1-2' average; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2' maybe a few plus or chest high sets but long lulls. Scattered clouds.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Down and dropping1.5' swell @ 14 sec SSW w/a trace of wind swell. Ruffled under light side shore ENE trades. Surf's 1-2 occ 2.5' per 20 minutes and just a few clouds.
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Sandy's:

Down and dropping SSW + Holding a small trade wrap and a trace of North wrap. Ruffled side offshores. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2' occ. 2.5' combo peaks. Shorebreak is focused from Cobbles to Middle Peak at 1-2 occ 2.5' and some back wash. Scattered clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 7 sec trade wind swell + fading 11 sec North wrap. Bumpy and mushy due to light to moderate trades. Surf's 1-2' and breaking along the shore all the way to Keiki corner. Scattered clouds.
REDBULL FOAMWRECKERS SAT OCT 26 728X90

Winds

Saturday
Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade

Sunday
Range:
5-15+mph ENE Trade

Monday
Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade
ramping 20+ later
Tuesday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Wednesday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

North

Saturday
10/05

Primary

Dropping 10s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore

Sunday
10/06

Primary

Dropping 9s N
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Rising Midday 21s NNW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair-Good side-offshore
2.5' evening
Monday
10/07

Primary

Up & Rising 15s NNW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
8' afternoon
Tuesday
10/08

Primary

Dropping 13s NNW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Wednesday
10/09

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

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West

Saturday
10/05

Primary

Rising 20s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Dropping 10s N
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Sunday
10/06

Primary

Up & Rising 16s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Dropping 9s N
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent
Monday
10/07

Primary

Up & Rising 15s NNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Dropping 14s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Good
Tuesday
10/08

Primary

Dropping 13s NNW
Haw: 2-5
Face: 3-8

Secondary

Dropping 13s S
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good
Wednesday
10/09

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Holding 13s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
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South

Saturday
10/05

Primary

Rising 20s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Dropping 11s SSW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
2.5' later
Sunday
10/06

Primary

Up & Rising 16s S
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent
6' later
Monday
10/07

Primary

Dropping 14s S
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent

Tuesday
10/08

Primary

Dropping 13s S
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Wednesday
10/09

Primary

Holding 13s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Rising Later 21s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good

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east

Saturday
10/05

Primary

Rising 11s NE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

Holding 10s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Average

Sunday
10/06

Primary

Up & holding 10s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 9s N
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
slightly bumpy

Monday
10/07

Primary

Holding 10s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Up & Rising 15s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Mushy
North wrap
Tuesday
10/08

Primary

Holding 9s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 13s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy
North wrap
Wednesday
10/09

Primary

Holding 6s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 12s N
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Choppy
North wrap
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Current Swells:

Saturday 10/05


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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   10/05
Trend: None
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   10/05
Trend: Good esp. toward lunch into afternoon due to light to moderate 5-15+ mph ENE trades thru the weekend and increasing later Monday.
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Diving Report:

Saturday   10/05
Trend: North shores: Fair-good due to small NNW surf (best bet deeper dives) clean offshore trades and partly cloudy skies. West shores: Good for most zones (best on deeper dives) due to small surf with light trades and mostly clear skies. South shores: Fair to good for most prime dive zones (best bet deeper zones), light to moderate side-offshore trades, and partly cloudy skies. East shores: Fair-good overall for top zones with light onshore trades, small surf, and scattered clouds.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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