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DUKES OCEANFEST 2017

645am OBs for Wednesday August 23 Powered by Used Surfboards Sale Saturday

Scattered-Broken clouds. overall another hot, but less humid day coming with morning light-moderate ENE trades filling to locally fresh (15-25 mph). Small craft advisory for channels east of Moloka'i. Possible co

Moderate ENE trade swell & Tiny SSE. Call 596-SURF (7am, Noon, 3 updates & 5p recap/trend)

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North Shore:

Holding trace 8 sec ENE swell wrap. Surf is 0-1' and clean w/ early light ENE trades filling to fresh. Better day for paddling, fishing, diving. Laniakea @ 0-1' (Cam brush cleared). Sunset area-Rocky Pt. 0-1', Pipe-OTW flat-lappers, Chuns is 0-1', Haleiwa 0' all under broken-cloudy skies.
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West:

Holding tiny 10 sec SSE. Makaha is smooth & glassy @ 0-occ 1' with increasing offshore trades filling in. Focusing spots 2' sets under fairly clear skies.
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Town:

Holding tiny background shoret period SE with waves hitting 1-2' mostly with lotsa waiting, weak form for Kewalos, Courts, Ala Moana, Kaisers; light-moderate offshore ENE trades filling. Threes-Pops-Queens are 0-1 occ 2' under scattered-broken clouds. Day 6 of Dukes Oceanfest: Tandem, Longboard ProAm, Access Surf!.
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Diamond Head:

Holding the tiny 10 sec SSE. Surf is 0-1-2' and inconsistent between top sets. Semi bumpy with light-moderate side-offshore filling to fresh under scattered-broken clouds.
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Sandy's:

Up a notch and holding on the 10 sec SSE & 8 sec trade swell. Surf is semi bumpy 2-3' sets from Middles to Gas Chambers. Light-moderate side-offshore trades filling. Full Point-1/2 Pt. is about 2.5' under broken clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Up & Holding 8 sec trade swell. Surf is 2-3' breaking outside out left toward middle and filling the inside sandbar. Keiki's side is small 1-2.5' with the early chop from increased moderate-fresh ENE trades under broken clouds.
UPPER CERVICAL

Weather

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 92°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 92°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 92°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph NE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 92°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph ENE

Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

Range:
5-15mph NE Trade

North

Wednesday
08/23
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding
4' 8 sec; clean, mostly cloudy
Thursday
08/24
E-NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Rising
1' 14 sec ENE
Friday
08/25
E-NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding
1' 11 sec ENE
Saturday
08/26
N-NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Rising
1.5' 9 sec
Sunday
08/27
N-NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

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West

Wednesday
08/23
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding
2' 10 sec; smooth offshore, hot, fairly clear
Thursday
08/24
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Friday
08/25
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Saturday
08/26
SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Rising Slow
1' 14sec
Sunday
08/27
SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising

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South

Wednesday
08/23
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding
2' 10 sec; clean, scattered-broken clouds
Thursday
08/24
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding

Friday
08/25
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding

Saturday
08/26
SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
1' 14 sec
Sunday
08/27
SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising Slow
1.5' 14sec
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east

Wednesday
08/23
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
4' 8 sec; typical chop, broken clouds
Thursday
08/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising
1' 14 sec
Friday
08/25
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding
1' 12 sec
Saturday
08/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Sunday
08/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

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Current Swells:

Wednesday   08/23
Primary: Rising  E-NE  2-3+' surf at 8 sec
Secondary: Holding  S-SE  1-2' surf at 10 sec
Third: Rising  SW  1' 11 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   08/23
Small craft advisory for channels round Maui and Big Is + chance of coastal flooding
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   08/23
Good for all shores with moderate to locally fresh ENE Trades filling in.
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   08/23
Good diving for North shore, good for West and good for South shores. Fair for select East shores on inside reef.

Oahu

SUNSET
Wednesday   08/23
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Trades moderate
smooth

ROCKY POINT
Wednesday   08/23
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Trades moderate-fresh
diving , paddling and fishin'
Laniakea thigh high
Pipeline
Wednesday   08/23
NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

HALEIWA
Wednesday   08/23
NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

MAKAHA
Wednesday   08/23
S-SE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades light
smooth

ALA MOANA
Wednesday   08/23
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Waikiki
Wednesday   08/23
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades moderate
good

Diamond Head
Wednesday   08/23
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Sandy Beach
Wednesday   08/23
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Makapuu
Wednesday   08/23
E-NE
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Wednesday   08/23
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Honolua
Wednesday   08/23
NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
diving , paddling and fishin'
sailin'
Kihei
Wednesday   08/23
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
good

Hana
Wednesday   08/23
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Wednesday   08/23
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Wednesday   08/23
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Majors
Wednesday   08/23
S-SE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate
fair to good

Poipu
Wednesday   08/23
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
ENE Trades moderate
fair to good

Kapaa
Wednesday   08/23
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Wednesday   08/23
E-NE
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Kohala
Wednesday   08/23
S-SE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Kona
Wednesday   08/23
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Trades moderate
smooth

Hilo
Wednesday   08/23
E-NE
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
ENE Trades moderate
bumpy

Kau
Wednesday   08/23
COMBO
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE: Update for Friday, Aug 18

NPAC: Main deal still: our persistent summer High pressure and wrapping windswell. The Jet is still very weak, disorganized with no chance of ground swell from the typical WPAC to Central Pac zones.

#1 Recently and currently: It’s been rideable this week but just off and on waist high at Laniakea etc. Tuesday got a ramp of wind swell from upstream and long-term local trades. Thursday saw thigh high and Friday see’s barely waist highs. The weekend will possibly see longer period wind swell from tropical disturbance far ESE of Big Is. But nothing over 3’ for Windward and maybe 2’ for the country.

#2 Next and long-range: As far as NW swells…nothing out 10 days as of Friday 18th.
SPAC: The JETSTREAM: still has the North branch w/t most the energy esp over the Taz. But we like the South Branch to crank and its shut down for nearly 10 days. The south branch is super weak and zonal or west to east. No ‘significant’ surf is expected for the rest of August. But we will see continued average waist to chest high with a few head high events off and on.

#1 Recent + Today: We had a 15 sec South hit the buoys at early this week. Sets saw a few 3’ but with long waits and the event veered SSE. We now have another SSE at about 14-16 secs with some 3’ sets for ‘town’. Low under Tahiti Thursday 10th popped our buoys to 17 sec earlier Thursday. This SSE filled late Thursday peaking Friday. Sandy’s is magnifying up to 4’ easy today. This will fade over the weekend. The source for the current episode was the same Low pushing up the prior South. The storm stalled SE of Tahiti last Thursday and thus the 17sec forerunner Thursday and 3’ sets Friday.

#2 Next + LongRange: We’re monitoring the Taz Sea for a possible SW next Friday-Sunday. It wont likely be over 2’. We also saw some fetch ESE of Tahiti midmonth which may add some small SE swell next Tuesday-Friday. We must wait till next weekend to see if anything ‘real’ pops up down under…. meaning there’s nothing in the 14-day outlook outside of the swells above.

TRADE SWELL
Trades swell finally bounced back to seasonal averages this week of 1-3 at 8 sec along most Windward outer reefs + shore pound. This was thanks to the High pressure’s upstream trades though this slightly longer period won’t last much beyond Wednesday. We’re now back into below averages thanks to lighter Trades into this Weekend.

TROPICS: Hurricane season began June 1st-Nov 30th.
A new storm is here:

Tropical Depression 13-E as of 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 shows deep convection associated with the disturbance located over the open eastern Pacific Ocean has become better organized early this
Morning. It’s too early for swell prediction.








The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
.
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
Tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded to Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
.
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.


A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Right now we have Tropical Storm (TS) Nanmadol approximately 163 nm east-northeast of Taipei,
Taiwan, and had tracked at 14 knots over the past six hours (As of 3pm Monday 7/3. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 50 knots gusting to 65 knots. We are not expecting swell from this region.

There are 3 disturbances in the East North Pac…1st, by Mexico 625 miles south of the tip of Baja. The other 2 have 0 chance of becoming more than a depression.

Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.





NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.

All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy
Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles)
Angle: 307 deg

Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------

Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355

(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------

10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9

12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9

14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5

16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4

18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6

20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9

22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4

24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9



Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria

Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Foot faces (8' Local) 25' Foot faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Foot (7' local) 20 Foot (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Foot (4'+ local) 12 Foot (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Foot (4'+ local) 15 Foot (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.

Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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