JJ Dolans

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Seaspecs 728 Buy2 get1 Aug 2018 B

645am OBS Wednesday Nov 21st

Small craft advisories for coast & channels. Scattered clouds Leeward this morning with moderate-fresh ENE trades filling to strong (15-30 mph). Mostly clouds for Windward & Mauka.

On Track for XXL Monday-Tuesday. BIG PICTURE UPDATED: Wednesday 11/21. Fading small NW. Faded tiny South & holding strong ENE trade swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, 12, 3 & 5p recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Down & Dropping 12sec North. Surf is fair to good early with slightly bumpy side-shores 2-3' sets for Sunset to Rocky Pt. Pipe-OTW zone up to 3', Laniakea 2.5', Ali'i Beach up to 2.5' under overcast to broken clouds.
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West:

Down & Dropping NW. Makaha is smooth offshore with 2' occ 2.5' sets breaking inside and fair-good under partly cloudy skies.
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Town:

A new trace of 14sec tiny SSW. Surf is pretty clean offshore but super inconsistent at 0-1.5' maybe occ 2' with decent shape and Ok rides for on inside reefs from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers, Threes-Pops-Queens-Publics 0-1.5' maybe occ. barely 2' sets/30 min under scattered clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Holding Wind wrap + occ.14sec tiny SSW mix. Surf is bumpy 1-2' with early moderate to fresh + side-off shores. Earlier the better as trades fill fresh-strong 30mph gusts by mid-morning under broken clouds.
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Sandy's:

Up and holding Windswell + holding occ SSW pulses. Surf is 1-2.5' and brisk, bumpy with side-off ENE trades from Full Pt. into Chambers with fair shape and decent sandbars for sectiony closeouts under broken clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and Holding 8sec ENE trade swell. Makapu'u is 2-3'+ & very choppy-disorganized from the outside Left to Middle to Keiki's...3' max but plenty close outs under clouds.
Surf n Sea Blow Out Nov-Jan19

Weather

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph E

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 88°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph NE

Range:
15-30mph East Trade

Range:
5-10mph East Trade
midday seabreezes
Range:
5-10mph NE Trade
switching NW afternoon
Range:
5-7mph Variables
midday seabreezes
Range:
5-7mph NE Trade
to variable to seabreezes

North

Wednesday
11/21

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

Rising 8s NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Fair side-offshores

Thursday
11/22

Primary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Dropping 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good

Friday
11/23

Primary

Holding 10s NNW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later

Saturday
11/24

Primary

Holding 10s N
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3

Secondary

Holding  
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smoother early-mushier midday

Sunday
11/25

Primary

Rising Predawn 15s NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14

Secondary

Rising Midday 18s NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Smooth early-mushy later

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West

Wednesday
11/21

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Rising 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair side-offshores
Thursday
11/22

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Good
Friday
11/23

Primary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 10s NNW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
Saturday
11/24

Primary

Holding 10s N
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Smoother early-mushier midday
Sunday
11/25

Primary

Rising Predawn 15s NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

Dropping Slow 11s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Smooth early-mushy later
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South

Wednesday
11/21

Primary

Rising 14s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Thursday
11/22

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Friday
11/23

Primary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Saturday
11/24

Primary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Sunday
11/25

Primary

Dropping Slow 11s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

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east

Wednesday
11/21

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

None 9s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Choppy

Thursday
11/22

Primary

Dropping 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Friday
11/23

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Saturday
11/24

Primary

Holding 9s E
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

Sunday
11/25

Primary

Holding 9s E
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

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Current Swells:

Wednesday 11/21
Primary: Holding 8s ENE surf @2-4 
Secondary: Dropping 12s NNW surf @2-3 
Third: Rising 14s SSW surf @1 occ 2 
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   11/21
Small Craft Adv for ALL waters due to fresh-strong trades
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   11/21
Good with early moderate ENE trades filling to fresh-strong paces 15-30mph
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   11/21
Fair for North shores zones and good for select West shores + good for select south shore zones; poor-fair for most 'inside reefs' and poor for 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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