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JJ Dolans

Obs for mMonday 10/23 btyb Cholos Happy Hour 4-6p

Hazy mostly cloudy morning with calm to light South winds mixing with sea breezes towards mid-day. High Surf Adv for NW shores.

BIG PICTURE: Update 2pm Saturday 10/21. Moderate-High NW & moderate SSW. Tiny background ENE. Call 596-SURF (7am, Noon, 3 updates & 5p recap/trend)

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North Shore:

Up and holding sizable 15 sec NW. Surf is super clean offshores from the south with good form for some spots. Sunset is 6-8'+; Rocky Pt 4-7'; Pipe 4-6'; Chuns 4-6+' closing out occas.; Laniakea 4-8'+; Ali'i Beach Park 4-6' under hazy cloudy skies.
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West:

Up and holding 15 sec NW and occas 16 sec small S. Makaha is 2-4' occ 5' with bumpy onshore South winds and rainy.
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Town:

Up & holding 16 sec SSW. Surf is 1-2' occ 3' (maybe an occ. 3.5' later) & smooth early but lite onshore south winds filling from Kewalos to Courts, Ala Moana to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens mostly 1-2 occ 3' under hazy clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Up & holding 16 sec SSW. Surf is 1-2' occ.3 (chance of plus) and fairly smooth early but onshore South winds mixing seabreezes toward mid-day under hazy cloudy skies.
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Sandy's:

Up & holding new South...down & holding tiny ENE. Surf is 2-3' and bumpy with light south winds + mixing sea-breezes by mid-morning. Shore pound best bet, Fair for Full Point to 1/2 Point; Pipe littles barrels; cloudy, hazy.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and holding 8 sec ENE. Surf is 1-2'. All near shore on the inside sandbar with fast ramp sections. Light south winds for super smooth water under scattered clouds and hazy.
Used Surboards Hawaii Sale Oct 28 2017

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 91°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
13mph SSW

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 86°F

Overcast

Wind:
13mph N

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph N

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NNE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 88°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph NNE

Range:
5-10mph Calm to Konas
lite South to seabrz toward 11am
Range:
10-20+mph North
filling in
Range:
5-15mph North

Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Range:
5-15mph NE Trade

North

Monday
10/23
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Rising
7' 15 sec; South Konas; haze
Tuesday
10/24
NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Holding
6' 12 sec
Wednesday
10/25
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Rising
10' 11sec
Thursday
10/26
NW
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Dropping

Friday
10/27
NW
Haw: 12-18
Face: 18-30
Rising
8' 20 to 12' 20 sec 2pm
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West

Monday
10/23
NW SSW
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
Rising
bumpy onshore, clouds, haze
Tuesday
10/24
NW SSW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Wednesday
10/25
NW SSW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising

Thursday
10/26
NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Dropping

Friday
10/27
COMBO
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
Rising

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South

Monday
10/23
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising
3' 16 sec
Tuesday
10/24
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping Slow
3' 15 sec
Wednesday
10/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping Slow

Thursday
10/26
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping Slow

Friday
10/27
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

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east

Monday
10/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
smooth, scatter clouds, haze
Tuesday
10/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
10/25
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
10/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Friday
10/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

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Current Swells:

Monday   10/23
Primary: Rising  NW  6-8+' surf at 15 sec
Secondary: Rising  S-SW  1-3' surf at 16sec
Third: Holding  E-NE  1-2' surf at 8 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   10/23
high surf advisory for NW shores
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Sailing Report:

Monday   10/23
Poor early as calm winds with lite south flow shift to seabeezes toward midday into late afternoon.
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Diving Report:

Monday   10/23
Poor diving up North & fair for few deeper West side's top spots; fair for select South shores. Fair to good for East shores.

Oahu

SUNSET
Monday   10/23
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Kona South
clean

ROCKY POINT
Monday   10/23
NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Calm to Konas
smooth

Pipeline
Monday   10/23
NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Calm to Konas
smooth

HALEIWA
Monday   10/23
NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Kona South
smooth

MAKAHA
Monday   10/23
COMBO
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Kona South
bumpy

ALA MOANA
Monday   10/23
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Calm to Konas
smooth am...mushy pm

Waikiki
Monday   10/23
S-SW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Kona South
smooth am...mushy pm

Diamond Head
Monday   10/23
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Kona South
clean

Sandy Beach
Monday   10/23
ENE+SSE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Calm to seabreezes
fair to good

Makapuu
Monday   10/23
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Calm to light
fairly clean

Maui

Hookipa
Monday   10/23
NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Kona South
good to excellent

Honolua
Monday   10/23
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Kona South
smooth

Kihei
Monday   10/23
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Kona South
good

Hana
Monday   10/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to light
smooth

Lahaina
Monday   10/23
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Kona South
smooth am...mushy pm

Kauai

Hanalei
Monday   10/23
NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Kona South
good

Majors
Monday   10/23
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Kona South
slightly bumpy

Poipu
Monday   10/23
S-SW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Kona South
smooth am...mushy pm

Kapaa
Monday   10/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to light
smooth

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Monday   10/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Kona South
smooth

Kohala
Monday   10/23
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Kona South
smooth am...mushy pm

Kona
Monday   10/23
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Kona South
smooth am...mushy pm

Hilo
Monday   10/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Kona South
smooth

Kau
Monday   10/23
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Kona South
bumpy

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE: Friday 9/29/17
NPAC: The Jet is fairly low with up to 180kts but flowing ENE from Japan not steering storms closer to us.
There’s a big split just to our NW some dips/troughs setting up for some circulation at the surface a couple times this 7-day trend. But, extreme dips and splits can be too steep hindering gradual connections between the upper flow and surface.
From our NE to the west coast it’s a mostly zonal flow with only 140kts. More energy is needed in these upper level wind regions 30,000 ft up in the EPAC.
A large area of High pressure which has persisted for a majority of the East Pac where the Jet bumps up and over is finally giving way a little this coming week tho’ briefly.
By next week Monday the 2nd of Oct., the Jet has dissipated into summer like levels but thanks to some dipping we do get a gale spinner Oct 3rd (read below).
Luckily by Wednesday it’s reconsolidated from Japan with some 180kts and again a ENE tilt to our longitudes above the Aleutians.
There’s minor trough to our N and more ‘blue’ or high-pressure re-establishing in the EPAC.
A cut off low just to our NE by Friday, as of now, it may lead to some interesting winds, weather and some NNE sideband surf over the weekend of the 7th.
#1 Recently/currently:
We’ve had some fun NNW to NNE swell this week getting to just overhead at focal reefs. Friday it’s still 1-3’ top spots top sets but not as ‘put together’. It came from an east to ENE bound Low to our NNW starting last late Sunday as it ended in the Gulf. Fetches continued on it’s West flank into Wednesday. This is outta here by Sunday.
#2 Next: A much better NNW episode (1st one of Oct) is setting up for Monday2 Tuesday3 up to maybe 6’ or double overhead. The storm is 1200mi to our N-NNW by Saturday and it stalls (occludes: which is good as winds aren’t strong and this give winds more time). The Low weakens more and more Sunday-Monday as it’s fetch noses from 900 down to 300 miles.
Models have been so fickle on this oct 1st event but now it looks good to go. They started at 6’ then backed down 3’ then up to 5’ now back to 3’ surf maybe 4’ Sunday-Monday Oct 1st-2nd. Now, finally it’s likely to peak near double overhead for focal reefs with winds Variable.
#3 Last: Another compact low pops on the charts esp. by Monday Oct 2nd as it crosses the dateline intensifying with a nice ESE track. This is a partially captured fetch which means the fetch ‘follows’ the storm center/track, leading to increased surface wind support). It’s fading out by Wednesday to our North but not without sending down some more NNW veering N swell this Wednesday the 5th with up to 5’ surf at 12 sec. Trades are expected back by this time.
SPAC: The JETSTREAM fattens up on the first days of this 7-day model run. But the energy is still not optimally placed NE up the east coast of New Zealand. This reflects our transition into Fall and the Jet falls apart from Tuesday-Friday.
#1 Recent + Today: It’s been tiny but rideable from the generic SSE-SE ‘trade swell’ this week with averages of 2’ but with tons of waiting.
#2 Next: A 45-55kt Low built up to 30’ seas as it tracked zonally from under NZL early this work week. But this was pointing to the Americas. However, due to size and strength we may rely on some long period sideband surf from swell dispersion. So far however, WW3 predicts only 1.2’ deep water at 18-20sec initially around Wednesday the 3rd. Those long periods come from high winds and can sometimes refract/shoal swell 3-4 or even 5X’s the ‘swell or deep water’ height. If this pans out Wednesday then we could see one or two 3’ sets if lucky every hour for top spots.
#3 Next: This Big storm continues is east bound journey and by Wednesday the 27th more storm force pockets are seen. But again, their fetch is zonal to ENE and skewed toward South AMER and Baja and Cali.
Then by Thursday the fetch points & moves more NE and by Friday the damn thing is 1500 miles long but just East of the 150W longitude of French Polynesia. They’ll be pumping and so will all the aforementioned zones. Hawaii will beg for sideband swell of 3’ Sat/Sunday 7-8th. Periods will be 11 sec by this time. They’ll start at 16sec when the earlier stage of the storms winds were strong.
#4 Last: A powerful Low including a reinforcement Low on it’s heals gets up to 45’ seas projects for Oct 3rd SE of New Zealand. Again, the damn things move west to east and thus once more we must receive smaller sideband swell instead of 5’ SSW’s we’d have a NE track. At any rate, due to the sheer power WW3 does claim a full week of fun 3’ SSW surf Mon-Friday Oct 9th-13th. Better than July and August.
TRADE SWELL
Trades swell below average and will remain so at least into oct 5th. There’s a Low’s weak surface trough pushing our high east and weakening it and its ridge down near the Islands from the NW. Winds will be light enough for sea breezes thru Tuesday….so tiny clean wind swell. Good diving for Windward all weekend pending rain and cloud cover. Trade swell re-establishes from Wed or Thursday to near normal or up to 2 or 3’ with minor flux.


TROPICS: Nothing today nor for the weekend.

Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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