Surf n Sea 728×90 generic 1/22/21

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HIC JAN 2021 1.11-

7am OBS Monday 1/25/21

Cloudy with moderate-fresh-strong E to ESE trades. High Surf Advisory for all East shores. Small Craft Advisory for all Hawaiian waters.

Big East trade swell. Dropping small NW. New slowly building SW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon & 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Down and Dropping 12 sec NW. Way down from yesterday. Top reefs/sets are inconsistent 1' overhead. Sunset 2-3' occ +', Rocky Pt. 2-3'+; Pipeline-Backdoor 2-3'+. Chuns 2-3', Jockos 2-3'+; Laniakea 1-2 occ barely 3' outside. Haleiwa 1-2 occ near 3'; Mostly cloudy and breezy but offshore.
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West:

Down and Dropping 12 sec NW and occ trace of SW. Clean with moderate-fresh offshores. Makaha is 1-2.5' ( occ chest) under broken clouds.
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Town:

Slowly rising 20 sec SW + wind wrap. Surf's fairly clean -so far- under lighter E trades today. Waikiki is 0-1.5' occ 2' and watch for 3'. Ala Moana, Kaisers, & Kewalos are 0-2' occ. near 3'' under clouds.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Slowly rising long period SW + holding trade wrap. Surf is choppy 1-3' and will be bumpy/shredded due to the strong E trades with clouds.
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Sandy's:

Up and Holding 10 sec trade swell plus some North and likely some SW to show. Surf's very bumpy with the strong E Trades. Full Pt and Half Pt. are a 2-4'; Shorebreak's coming in at 2-4' and cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and holding 10 sec E trade + some North swell. Surf's a solid but unruly 3-5', occ. 6'. Breaking way on the outside left, and washing through to the beach. Keiki's is 2-4+'; mostly cloudy.
CHOLOS NEW HOURS DEC 2020 728X90  12/9-

Winds

Monday
Range:
15-30mph ESE
FILLING IN
Tuesday
Range:
15-25+mph ESE

Wednesday
Range:
15-30mph East Trade

Thursday
Range:
15-35mph East Trade

Friday
Range:
15-30mph ENE Trade

North

Monday
01/25

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+

Secondary

Holding 10s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Fair to good

Tuesday
01/26

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Holding 10s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Fair to good

Wednesday
01/27

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 10s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good

Thursday
01/28

Primary

Holding 10s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Rising Early 20s WNW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Fair to good

Friday
01/29

Primary

Up & Rising 18s WNW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

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West

Monday
01/25

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

Up & Rising 20s SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Tuesday
01/26

Primary

Up & holding 17s SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair
Wednesday
01/27

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 15s SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Fair to good
Thursday
01/28

Primary

Holding 10s ENE
Haw: 0
Face: 0

Secondary

Dropping 14s SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Friday
01/29

Primary

Up & Rising 18s WNW
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+

Secondary

Dropping 13s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
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South

Monday
01/25

Primary

Up & Rising 20s SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Holding 10s SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair
LONG LULLS
Tuesday
01/26

Primary

Up & holding 17s SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Wednesday
01/27

Primary

Dropping 15s SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Thursday
01/28

Primary

Dropping 14s SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Friday
01/29

Primary

Dropping 13s SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

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east

Monday
01/25

Primary

Up & Rising 10s E
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10

Secondary

Rising 10s NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rough
UNRULY
Tuesday
01/26

Primary

Dropping 10s E
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Lumpy , Bumpy, Grumpy

Wednesday
01/27

Primary

Dropping 10s E
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Rough

Thursday
01/28

Primary

Dropping 10s E
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Friday
01/29

Primary

Dropping 9s ENE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

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Current Swells:

Monday 01/25
Primary: Up & Rising 10s E surf @4-6 
Secondary: Dropping 13s NW surf @2-3+ 
Third: Up & Rising 20s SW surf @1-2 occ + 
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   01/25
ABOVE High Surf Advisory threshold for East shores, Small Craft Advisory for all Hawaiian waters
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Sailing Report:

Monday   01/25
Good for experts w/ fresh-strong E to ESE trades of 15-30mph
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Diving Report:

Monday   01/25
Fair for select top deeper North and good for top deeper West shorelines. Fair-Good for South shore zones; Very Poor for most reefs along Windward shores due to strong East Trades.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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