705am OBS, Saturday Sept 7th
BIG Picture updated Saturday. Sunny morning with lite ENE trades filling in at moderate moderate paces by lunch. No advisories.
Small North eases. Small Trade swell and North wrap. New Small SW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Dropping 10 sec North. Clean conditions with biggest sets at focal reefs. Lite-moderate side-offshore ENE trades filling. Sunset 1-2 occ. 3'+. Rocky Pt 1-3'; Pipe mostly flat-1.5'; Chuns 1-2' occ. 3'; Laniakea 1-3' occ. +; Ali'i Beach Park 1-occ. 2'. Scattered clouds.West:
Dropping 10 sec North + Rising 20 sec SSW + fading 15 sec SSW. Makaha is breaking at 1-2+'. Smooth and glassy early with moderate offshores filling by lunch. Scattered clouds.Town:
Dropping 12 sec SSE + Rising 20 sec SSW + fading 15 sec SSW. Clean due to lite side-offshore trades. Waikiki reefs are tiny 1-occ. 2' on the SSW. Kaisers-Rockpiles-Ala Moana-Kewalos are 1-2' maybe 2.5 or chest high. Scattered clouds.Diamond Head:
Dropping 12 sec SSE + Rising 20 sec SSW + fading 15 sec SSW. Semi-clean due to lite side-offshore trades. Surf's 1-2' and a chance of 2.5' or chest high drops. Scattered clouds.Sandy's:
Dropping 12 sec SSE + Rising 20 sec SSW + fading 15 sec SSW + some small N wrap. Semi-clean early due to lite side-shore trades. Full Pt.-Half Pt 1-2' occ. 3' over the reefs and slightly bumpy. Shore break is mostly 1-2 maybe a 2.5' combo peak from the lite E trades and nice sandbars. Scattered clouds.East Makapu'u:
Holding 8 sec ENE trade swell at and North wrap. Surf's 1-2' occ. soft 3' on the North wrap, focusing on Keikis thanks to the North wrap. Scattered-broken clouds.Winds
10-20+mph ENE Trade
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes
sea breezes nearing midday
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes
sea breezes nearing midday
10-20mph ENE Trade
10-25mph ENE Trade
North
Primary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
focal reefs
Primary
Dropping 8s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Rising early Evening 9s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth earlier-mushy mid-morning
Primary
Up & holding 10s NHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smoother early-mushier midday
focal reefs
Primary
Dropping 7s NHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Rising Later 13s NHaw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Good early , fair later
focal reefs
Primary
Dropping 8s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Rising 16s NNEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore
focal reefs
West
Primary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Up & holding 18s SWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair
Primary
Holding 16s SWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 8s NHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Up & holding 10s NHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Dropping Slow 15s SWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Smoother early-mushier midday
Primary
Dropping 7s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Dropping 14s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good early , fair later
Primary
Dropping 8s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
South
Primary
Up & holding 18s SWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 10s SSEHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
Primary
Holding 16s SWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 10s SSEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping Slow 15s SWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 9s SSEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 14s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 9s SEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising Later 21s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
east
Primary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Holding 8s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Mushy
Primary
Dropping 7s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Rising 9s NHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
blown out
Primary
Holding 8s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & Rising 8s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Tattered
Primary
Holding 8s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & holding 9s NHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
sloppy-choppy
Primary
Rising 9s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Choppy
Current Swells:
Sunday 09/08Secondary: Dropping 9s N surf @1-2 Secondary: Dropping 9s N surf @1-2
Third: Up & holding 18s SW surf @1-2
Marine Warnings:
Sunday 09/08Trend: none
Sailing Report:
Sunday 09/08Trend: Good with light to moderate ENE Trades filling in.
Diving Report:
Sunday 09/08Trend: North shores: Fair due to small North swell surges, best for deeper dives with nice weather, lite-to moderate offshore ENE Trades filling in near lunch; West shores: good for most zones (excellent for deeper dives) tiny North swell and lite ENE trades and clear skies. South shores: Good for most spots early with small surf and lite-moderate trades and mostly clear. East shores: Fair overall due to small average surf from the Trades and N wrap and moderate onshores and scattered-broken clouds.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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