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SURF N SEA BLOW OUT 728 11.21.24-1.31.25

630am OBS, Monday, January 13th

Partly cloudy skies with a couple of light, windward and mauka showers. Light to moderate ENE trades filling to moderate+ paces towards lunch. High Surf Advisory for North and West shores of Niihau-Oahu and North shores of Maui.

Big Picture updated 1/12. New, moderate-large NW filling in. Small NW-NNW. Average ENE trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Dropping 13 sec NW-NNW + Rising 19 sec NW. Mostly clean conditions with a pinch of texture from breezy side-offshore winds. Sunset 2-4'; Rocky Pt 2-3'; Pipe 2-3'+; Chuns 2-3'; Laniakea 2-3'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'+. Watch for 6-8' sets at top reefs this afternoon. Few clouds.
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West:

Dropping 13 sec NW-NNW + Rising 19 sec NW. Clean and nicely groomed surf all day due to light to moderate offshore wind. Makaha is 1-2'+ and breaking in the bowl for now. Watch for 3-5' surf this afternoon. Scattered clouds.
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Town:

Holding trace south-hemi energy. Mushy, bumpy, and mostly unrideable due to breezy onshore wind. Waikiki reefs are 0-1/2'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 0-1'. Partly cloudy skies with passing showers.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Holding trade wrap. Textured and bumpy due to breezy sideshore winds. Surf's 1-occ. 2' at takeoff. Partly cloudy skies with passing showers.
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Sandy's:

Holding ENE trade wind swell wrap. Surf's bumpy, mushy, and textured due to breezy onshore wind. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'+. Shorebreak is cleaner at 1-2'+. Scattered to broken clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 8 sec ENE trade wind swell. Typical, lumpy and bumpy conditions under a breezy onshore wind. Surf's 1-3' and breaking on the outside left by the rocks. Keikis is smaller at 1-2'+. Scattered to broken clouds.
Cholos

Winds

Monday
Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

Tuesday
Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

Wednesday
Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade
Lighter PM
Thursday
Range:
5-10mph Variables to konas

Friday
Range:
5-15mph NNE

North

Monday
01/13

Primary

Dropping 13s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Rising 19s NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
8' afternoon
Tuesday
01/14

Primary

Up & holding 14s NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Wednesday
01/15

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Thursday
01/16

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

Rising late Afternoon 24s WNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Smooth early-mushy later

Friday
01/17

Primary

Up & Rising 20s WNW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
15-18' late afternoon
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West

Monday
01/13

Primary

Dropping 13s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Holding 10s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Tuesday
01/14

Primary

Up & holding 14s NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

Holding 10s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Wednesday
01/15

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Rising 18s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
Thursday
01/16

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

Up & Rising 17s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smooth early-mushy later
Friday
01/17

Primary

Up & Rising 20s WNW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

Up & holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Good early , fair later
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South

Monday
01/13

Primary

Holding 10s SSE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Tuesday
01/14

Primary

Holding 10s SSE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Wednesday
01/15

Primary

Rising 18s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Rising Nightime 18s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair

Thursday
01/16

Primary

Up & Rising 17s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
3' later
Friday
01/17

Primary

Up & holding 15s SSW
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent

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east

Monday
01/13

Primary

Dropping Slow 8s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Chunky
minor N wrap
Tuesday
01/14

Primary

Dropping Slow 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
minor N wrap
Wednesday
01/15

Primary

Holding 9s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy
minor N wrap
Thursday
01/16

Primary

Holding 9s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
minor N wrap
Friday
01/17

Primary

Holding 9s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smoother early-mushier midday

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Current Swells:

Monday 01/13
Primary: Dropping 13s NNW surf @2-4 
Secondary: Dropping Slow 8s ENE surf @1-3 
Third: Holding 10s SSE surf @0-1 
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   01/13
High Surf Advisory for North and West shores of Niihau-Oahu and North shores of Maui.
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Sailing Report:

Monday   01/13
Good with moderate to fresh ENE trades of 10-25mph.
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Diving Report:

Monday   01/13
North shores: FAIR early but becoming POOR in the afternoon due to quickly rising surf. West shores: GOOD early due to small surf but becoming POOR-FAIR due to rising surf. South shores: GOOD for most zones due to tiny surf and side-offshore trades. East shores: POOR for most zones (FAIR for select zones) due to near-average surf and onshore chop.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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