615am OBS, Tuesday, October 22nd
Few to scattered clouds with light East trades in the morning and afternoon sea breezes mixing in for some spots. No marine warnings.
Big Picture updated 10/20. New SSW. Small NNE. Tiny SW & NNW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Dropping 9 sec NNW + Rising 9 sec NNE. Smooth conditions early due to a very light offshore breeze. Sunset 1-1.5'; Rocky Pt 1-1.5'; Pipe flat; Chuns 0-1.5'; Laniakea 1-2'; Ali'i Beach Park flat. Scattered clouds.West:
Rising 17 sec SSW + Dropping 14 sec SW + Dropping 9 sec NNW. Clean conditions under very light offshore winds, but not much surf and sea breezes filling in towards late morning. Makaha is 0-1.5' and lapping inside the reef. Mostly clear skies.Town:
Rising 17 sec SSW + Dropping 14 sec SW. Clean conditions due to light offshore winds. Waikiki reefs are 0-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-occ. 2'. Mostly clear skies.Diamond Head:
Rising 17 sec SSW + Dropping 14 sec SW. Clean conditions under a nearly calm wind. Surf's 1-occ. 2' at takeoff. Few clouds.Sandy's:
Rising 17 sec SSW + Dropping 14 sec SW + Rising NNE wrap. Very slightly bumpy and ruffled under a light sideshore wind. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'. Shorebreak is cleaner at 1-2'. Mostly clear skies.East Makapu'u:
Rising 9 sec NNE. A little bumpy and textured due to light to moderate trades early. Surf's 1-2' and breaking along the shore across the bay. Scattered clouds.Winds
5-10mph East Trade
Sea breezes toward lunch
5-15mph East Trade
PM leeward sea breezes
5-15mph East Trade
PM leeward sea breezes
5-15mph East Trade
PM leeward sea breezes
10-20mph East Trade
North
Primary
Dropping 9s NNWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising 9s NNEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair
Primary
Rising Afternoon 9s NNEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Up & holding 10s NNEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Rising Afternoon 16s NWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
Primary
Rising 13s NEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Up & holding 15s NWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 12s NEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Dropping 12s NWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
West
Primary
Dropping 9s NNWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Secondary
Rising Slow 17s SSWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Up & holding 16s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Rising Afternoon 9s NNEHaw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair
Primary
Holding 14s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Up & holding 10s NNEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair
Primary
Rising 13s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Rising 20s SHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 12s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Up & holding 17s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
South
Primary
Rising Slow 17s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Dropping 14s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Primary
Up & holding 16s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Holding 14s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Rising 20s SHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair
2' later
Primary
Up & holding 17s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
east
Primary
Rising 9s NNEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy
Primary
Rising Afternoon 9s NNEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy
Primary
Up & holding 10s NNEHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy
Primary
Rising 10s NEHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy
5' evening
Primary
Up & dropping 12s NEHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Rising Later 6s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy
Current Swells:
Tuesday 10/22Secondary: Dropping 9s NNW surf @1-1.5
Third: Rising Slow 17s SSW surf @1-1.5
Marine Warnings:
Tuesday 10/22No marine warnings.
Sailing Report:
Tuesday 10/22Poor due to light trades.
Diving Report:
Tuesday 10/22North shores: Good for most zones, excellent for deeper dives due to small surf. West shores: Good for most zones, excellent for deeper dives due to very small surf. South shores: Good overall and esp. for deeper zones, due to tiny surf with lite winds under mostly clear skies. East shores: Good overall due to small surf and light to moderate onshore trades.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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