645am OBS, Happy MLK Day, Monday, January 20th
Partly cloudy skies with dry conditions. Light to moderate NE trades filling to moderate paces towards lunch. No marine warnings.
Big Picture updated 1/19. Moderate NW. Small SSW. Small-average NE trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Dropping 13 sec NW. Surf's mostly clean early under a light side-offshore breeze, becoming more textured towards midday as sideshore winds fill in. Sunset 4-6'; Rocky Pt 3-5'; Pipe 3-5'+; Chuns 3-5'; Laniakea 3-5'; Ali'i Beach Park 2-4'. Broken clouds.West:
Dropping 13 sec NW + Dropping 13 sec SSW. Clean conditions due light to moderate offshores. Makaha is 2-3'+. Few clouds.Town:
Dropping 13 sec SSW. Surf's really clean and smooth due to a light offshore wind but inconsistent. Waikiki reefs are 1-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-occ. 2'. Partly cloudy skies.Diamond Head:
Dropping 13 sec SSW + minor trade wrap. Mostly clean conditions under a light offshore to side-offshore breeze. Surf's 1-occ. 2' at takeoff. Partly cloudy skies.Sandy's:
Dropping 13 sec SSW + Dropping NE trade wrap. Surf's fairly clean due to a breezy side-offshore wind. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'. Shorebreak is also at 1-2'. Scattered clouds.East Makapu'u:
Dropping 8 sec NE trade wind swell. Bumpy and textured conditions due to a breezy onshore wind. Surf's 1-2'+ on the shorebreak and spread out through the bay. Scattered clouds.Winds
10-20mph NE Trade
5-15mph NE Trade
Lighter later
5-7mph Variables to konas
NW 10-20+mph later
5-10mph NW
10-20mph ENE Trade
North
Primary
Dropping 13s NWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair side-offshores
NNW 6'+ midday
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Rising 20s NWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NWHaw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Nice early , Bad later
8' afternoon
Primary
Up & holding 13s NNWHaw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
poor to fair
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
West
Primary
Dropping 13s NWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair side-offshores
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Dropping 12s SSWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NWHaw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary
Dropping 12s SSWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Nice early , Bad later
Primary
Up & holding 13s NNWHaw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
Secondary
Dropping 11s SSWHaw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
poor to fair
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+
Secondary
Holding 9s SSEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
South
Primary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 12s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Dropping 12s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Dropping 11s SSWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Holding 9s SSEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
east
Primary
Dropping 8s NEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Holding 8s NEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Rising Late Evening 10s NEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
slightly bumpy
Primary
Up & holding 9s NEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Rising 15s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
North wrap
Primary
Holding 9s EHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Up & holding 13s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Fair
North wrap
Primary
Holding 9s EHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 11s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy
North wrap
Current Swells:
Monday 01/20Primary: Dropping 13s NW surf @4-6
Secondary: Dropping 8s NE surf @1-2+
Third: Dropping 13s SSW surf @1 occ 2
Marine Warnings:
Monday 01/20None
Sailing Report:
Monday 01/20Good due to moderate to locally fresh NE trades of 10-20mph+.
Diving Report:
Monday 01/20North shores: Poor due to moderate surf. West shores: Fair due to small surf. South shores: Fair-good for most zones due to small surf and offshore winds. East shores: Fair for most zones due to small surf and bumpy onshore conditions.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
Premium snn Membership
Join the Premium SNN Membership and enjoy 10 Day Forecasts, All Webcams Page, 5 Days Webcams Archives, Help Surfrider & Access Surf with your partnership.
All for just $8/month Sign Up Now! 1st Month is FREE
5,460
likes
550
followers
98
subscribers
449
followers