UPDATED 10am OBS, Tuesday, December 3rd
A gorgeous morning with mostly clear skies. Calm to light offshore land breezes giving way to a mix of light South flow and onshore sea breezes towards lunch. High Surf Advisory at noon for North and West shores of Niihau-Molokai and North shores of Maui.
Big Picture updated 12/1. Moderate+ NW building. Unseasonably sizeable SSW. Tiny NE. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Up and Rising 17 sec NW + Up & Rising 12 sec NW. Really smooth, glassy conditions due to a slight offshore land breeze. Watch for 5-7' poss. 8' sets before dusk. For now, Sunset 4-6'+; Rocky Pt 3-5'+; Pipe 3-5'+; Chuns 3-5'; Laniakea 3-5'; Ali'i Beach Park 3-4'.+ Finals Day On for HIC Haleiwa Pro. Few to scattered clouds.West:
Up and Rising 17 sec NW + Up & Rising 12 sec NW + Up & Holding 16 sec SSW. Surf's fair but lite onshore sea breezes are starting to mush things out esp by noon. Makaha is a mixed plate of 2-4'.... Watch for 3-5' sets before dark. Mostly clear skies.Town:
Up & Holding 16 sec SSW. Much better than yesterday morning with glassy conditions early and looking really good due to light offshore land breezes. Waikiki reefs are 2-3' occ. +; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 2-3 occ 4'. Few clouds.Diamond Head:
Up & Holding 16 sec SSW. Fair to good but slight bump now. Mushier later. Surf's 2-4' at takeoff. Browns is 3-4' occ. 5'. Mostly clear skies.Sandy's:
Up & Holding 16 sec SSW. Slightly bumpy this morning due to light south SW winds along with seabreezes. Full Pt/Half Pt are 2-3 occ 4'. Shorebreak is also 2-3 occ 4'. Few clouds.East Makapu'u:
Dropping 9 sec NE. Nice, smooth conditions due to a light offshore wind. Surf's 1-barely 2' on the shorebreak and spread out across the bay. Few clouds.Winds
5-7mph Variables to konas
SSW flow; veering to seabreezes toward lunch
5-10mph Variables to konas
South flow: veering to seabreezes toward lunch
5-15mph SW Kona
veering NW
10-20+mph NE Trade
5-15mph East Trade
Becoming variables to sea breezes PM
North
Primary
Rising 17s NWHaw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary
Up & Rising 13s NWHaw: 3-4
Face: 5-7
Smooth early-mushy later
7'+ afternoon
Primary
Up & holding 13s NWHaw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary
Rising 12s NWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
7' later
Primary
Up & dropping 12s NNWHaw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Secondary
Rising Nightime 17s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Poor-fair side-shores
NE trades return
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NNWHaw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
8' midday
West
Primary
Rising 17s NWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
Up & holding 16s SSWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary
Up & holding 13s NWHaw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary
Dropping 14s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary
Rising 12s NWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary
Up & dropping 12s NNWHaw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+
Secondary
Up & Rising 18s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Poor-fair side-shores
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NNWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Up & dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smooth early-mushy later
South
Primary
Up & holding 16s SSWHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy
still good 11am
Primary
Dropping 14s SSWHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smoother early-mushier midday
Primary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Rising Later 19s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Smoother early-mushier midday
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
3' later
Primary
Up & dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Rising 19s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good early , fair later
east
Primary
Dropping 9s NEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary
Holding 8s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin
Primary
Holding 8s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Rising Nightime 6s NNEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
divin , paddlin
Primary
Up & holding 7s NEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & dropping 12s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Choppy
North wrap
Primary
Dropping 6s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & Rising 15s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair early , Better Later
North wrap
Current Swells:
Tuesday 12/03Primary: Rising 17s NW surf @3-5+
Secondary: Up & holding 16s SSW surf @2-4
Third: Dropping 9s NE surf @1-1.5
Marine Warnings:
Tuesday 12/03High Surf Advisory for North and West shores Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, & Molokai and North shores of Maui.
Sailing Report:
Tuesday 12/03Poor due to light and variable winds.
Diving Report:
Tuesday 12/03North shores: Poor to fair due to moderate surf and light winds. West shores: Fair due to small to moderate surf and light winds. South shores: Poor to fair due to moderate surf and light winds. East shores: Good to excellent due to tiny surf and light winds.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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