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Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE: Friday 9/15/17

NPAC: The Jet isn’t working much magic this 7-day outlook but chances are increasing for more regular swell, tho’ small so far. Most the 150kt energy has been zonal but this weekend we see it split about 1500 mi WNW with dips or troughs on either side.

By Monday this trough near the dateline sees the cont. Jet split set up a surface low by Sunday centered just west of the dateline.

A huge area of High pressure persists for a majority of the East Pac. This means more regular Trades unless interrupted by nearby local events/storms. This high pressure blocks the jet big time so its way up by the Eastern Aleutians and under the gulf where it dips along the west coast toward the end of next week.

Finally, a High above the Aleutians and next to the Jet help create some surface winds …due to the increased pressure between them … far NW …on the High’s SE flank. It may push down some NNW by the following week. Most the swell misses to the west. But all in all, no magic Jet this week.

#1 Recently and currently: It’s been just above average for Sept. We’ve had a GREAT work week for NNW to NNE focal reefs with superb early conditions from Variables. Surf did reach 6’. Today Friday it’s 3’ mostly. The source was a nearly stationary Low to our NNE last Monday which also helped cut the trades but trades are making a comeback today.

#2 Last: A very weak Low forms far NW this weekend and strengthens Monday to 22’ about 600 miles west of the dateline or 1800 miles NW.  It’s trying to send some 3’ NW this Wednesday at 12 sec. average. But most the energy is going SW. Sketchy (low chances) for surf over 3’.

SPAC: The JETSTREAM looks bad for typical SSW swell production the entire 7-day model run. Though there’s enough energy under and above the Taz to assist in spawning Lows for SW event around Sunday the 24th. Read below.

The North branch is dominant and lotsa blue is showing the High pressure over NZL all the way to longitudes past Tahiti. The southern branch is zonal (west to east) and weak (only 110kt).

We do see one meridional flow far SE of Tahiti which sets up a long-term South tracking spinner at the surface. It’s likely too far East from our window plus it’s moving the wrong way. But there’s slight chance for some 2’ SE surf at 13 sec around 25-26th.

#1 Recent + Today: It’s been below summer mediums… meaning small all week… with background SW to keep it surfable for the non-spoiled. Friday starts out tiny but has the buoys showing slivers of 17-19 sec on a new SW building slowly all day and night.

#2 Next: A rising long period SW swell should peak Saturday at 1-2 occ 3’. Esp on the higher tide push (2' at 2p).The storm in the Taz a week ago was broader/stronger than the preceding ones. Plus, it reached up the Taz sea for a long fetch. Due to the high winds creating long periods some focal deep water reefs.

#3 Next: This storm above tracked east right over NZL this weekend with a new fetch hugging its east coast. WW3 hints at tiny 2’ surf from the SSW support the declining SW.

#4 Last: A compact Taz Low from under Tasmania tracks mostly ENE from Friday-Sat. 15-16th. So far models say less than 1’ deep water at 15sec Sunday the 24th. Meaning occ 2’ surf into Monday if it even reaches us.

TRADE SWELL

Trades swell eased again all this past work week due to the Low that cut the trades all week (but brought all that N swell). So, windsurf has been below seasonal averages of 2’ or less surf at 8 sec along most Windward outer reefs + shore pound due to light trades, variables. Now that the ridge is lifting trades are returning. In fact, the High is becoming large & strong so trades should be fresh by Sunday. Surf will lift to 3’ and hold into Monday. A chance of weakening trades again occurs Tuesday onward due to an area of Low pressure pushing the High east midweek. We should see the wind waves ease to under 3’.

TROPICS: We have Typhoon Talim in the West hitting Japan and Norma (almost a hurricane) off the Tip of Baja in the East Pac. So far no surf is expected for Hawaii.


The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
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Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
Tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded to Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
.
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.


A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Right now we have Tropical Storm (TS) Nanmadol approximately 163 nm east-northeast of Taipei,
Taiwan, and had tracked at 14 knots over the past six hours (As of 3pm Monday 7/3. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 50 knots gusting to 65 knots. We are not expecting swell from this region.

There are 3 disturbances in the East North Pac…1st, by Mexico 625 miles south of the tip of Baja. The other 2 have 0 chance of becoming more than a depression.

Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.





NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.

All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy
Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles)
Angle: 307 deg

Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------

Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355

(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------

10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9

12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9

14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5

16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4

18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6

20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9

22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4

24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9



Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria

Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Foot faces (8' Local) 25' Foot faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Foot (7' local) 20 Foot (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Foot (4'+ local) 12 Foot (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Foot (4'+ local) 15 Foot (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.

Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)