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Bamp EPMF

645am Obs Saturday 5/27 Powered by The Cholos Salsa Dance Party Sunday Night!

Beautiful morning with early calm to light NE trades shifting to sea-breezes by mid-day. Mostly clear Leeward and broken clouds for Windward/ Mauka. High surf advisory for South facing shores.

Moderate SSW, micro NNW & background trade swell. Call 596-SURF (7am, Noon, 3 updates & 5p recap/trend)

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the tiny 8 sec NNW. Surf is 1-2.5 and inconsistent with short, peaky rides for top reefs. Sunset pt. 1-2' smooth, Rocky Pt. 1-2', Pipe-OTW 0-1.5', Chuns 1-2' sectiony, Laniakea 1-2'+ (best bet), Ali'i barely 2'; clean with calm trades and mostly clear.
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West:

Up and holding on the 15 sec SSW. Down & dropping on the tiny NW energy. Makaha is 2-3' with larger sets for focusing reef sections. Smooth with light offshore shifting to sea-breezes by mid-morning and mostly clear.
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Town:

Up & holding on the 15 sec SSW. Surf is 3-5' occ.+' and slightly lully with slow, rolling sets showing good shape and decent energy once they hit the line-up. Extreme high tides (King Tides) continue +2.4' @ 5.55pm. Calm to light NE offshores and super clean from Bowls to Rock Piles to Kaisers, Threes-Pops-Queens 2-3' occ. 4' and mostly clear with sea-breezes hitting mid-day.
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Diamond Head:

Up and holding on the moderate SSW. Surf is 3-5' occ. 6' with solid energy. Top sets showing long walls and clean faces. King Tides continue to affect surf throughout the day. Early light NE trades with sea-breezes toward mid-day and passing clouds.
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Sandy's:

Up and holding the 15 sec SSW and background trade swell. Surf is 3-4' occ. 5' and good conditions with top sets detonating on the inside sandbar. Light NE side-offshore trades early shifting to mushy seabreezes by mid-morning. Hollow tubes to be found from Full Point into Gas Chambers with scattered clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Down & holding 8 sec trade & NE swell. Surf is 1-2'+ and slightly bumpy. Top sets showing good form with some fun tube sections still for all parts of the bay. Calm-light onshore and broken clouds.
Surf n Sea SUP race Pacifico

Weather

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph E

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 90°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph E

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 90°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 89°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph ENE

Range:
5-10mph Variables
slight trade flow to onshore seabrz toward midday
Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade
veering variable to midday seabrz
Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade
veering variable to midday seabrz
Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade
veering variable to midday seabrz
Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

North

Saturday
05/27
N-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Dropping
4' 8 sec; fairly clean, clear
Sunday
05/28
NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising Afternoon

Monday
05/29
NE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Rising

Tuesday
05/30
NW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising
2' 12sec afternoon
Wednesday
05/31
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping
5' 12s
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West

Saturday
05/27
S-SW
Haw: 3-4
Face: 5-7
Holding
Smooth, clear
Sunday
05/28
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping Slow
isolated
Monday
05/29
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Dropping

Tuesday
05/30
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising
new small NW later
Wednesday
05/31
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding
NW + SSW
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South

Saturday
05/27
S-SW
Haw: 3-5 occ 6
Face: 5-8 occ 10
Holding
3' 15 sec; clean, clear
Sunday
05/28
S-SW
Haw: 3-4 occ +
Face: 5-7 occ +
Dropping Slow
King Tides. 3' 14 sec
Monday
05/29
S-SW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping Slow
2.5' 14 sec
Tuesday
05/30
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising Slow
1' 15sec background
Wednesday
05/31
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising Slow
1' 15sec
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east

Saturday
05/27
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Holding
4' 7 sec; semi-bump, clouds
Sunday
05/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
NNE
Monday
05/29
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
NNE
Tuesday
05/30
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
NNE
Wednesday
05/31
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

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Current Swells:

Saturday   05/27
Primary: Holding  S-SW  Peaking today 4-6' surf at 15 sec
Secondary: Dropping  ENE+NNE  1-2' surf @ 8 sec
Third: Dropping  N-NW  0-2' surf at 7 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   05/27
ABOVE High Surf Adv for all South shores and Advsy for adjacent shores (SE & W)
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   05/27
Poor to fair with super light ENE Trades filling to light but veering to variables/seabrz later
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Diving Report:

Saturday   05/27
King Tides. Good for North; fair (South swell) for deeper west; poor (SSW swell) for south early, good for isolated east shores (esp inside the reefs)

Oahu

SUNSET
Saturday   05/27
N-NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

ROCKY POINT
Saturday   05/27
N-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Pipeline
Saturday   05/27
N-NW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Calm to trades
smooth am...mushy pm

HALEIWA
Saturday   05/27
N-NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Calm to seabreezes
diving , paddling and fishin'

MAKAHA
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm
Bigger at focal reefs; onshore by 10am
ALA MOANA
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 3-5 occ 6
Face: 5-8 occ 10
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Waikiki
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Diamond Head
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 3-5 occ 6
Face: 5-8 occ 10
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Sandy Beach
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 3-5 occ +
Face: 5-9 occ +
Calm to seabreezes
good

Makapuu
Saturday   05/27
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to trades
smooth

Maui

Hookipa
Saturday   05/27
N-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Trades very light
good

Honolua
Saturday   05/27
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades very light
good
1' NNE and SSW. Bigger @ other isolated reefs
Kihei
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Calm to seabreezes
smooth
further down the road
Hana
Saturday   05/27
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to trades
good

Lahaina
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm
isolated higher sets

Kauai

Hanalei
Saturday   05/27
N
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Majors
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Poipu
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Kapaa
Saturday   05/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Saturday   05/27
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Calm to trades
good

Kohala
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Calm to seabreezes
good
only select reefs
Kona
Saturday   05/27
S-SW
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Hilo
Saturday   05/27
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Calm to seabreezes
good

Kau
Saturday   05/27
COMBO
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Calm to trades
smooth

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE Update Monday 5/15/17
NPAC:

#1 Recent: Surf’s was unreal overall early May. Then it's been back to 'normal' with mostly NE windswell this past weekend & today. Still, we can expect a springlike NW this week.

#2 Next: This weekend a weak slow tracking Low moved E to ESE from the west Aleutians just reaching the dateline 1200 miles NW as winds weaken over Thursday-Monday. Buoys should show it after dark Wednesday the 17th & by Thursday we should have some 2-3’ surf (head high) at 11sec. It’ll be almost 3’ on Friday, disappearing from there.

#4, Last: We see some complex semi occluding low pressure to our NW on our side of the dateline Friday the 19th. We could see some short 10 sec period surf from the NW reach 2’ maybe 3’ sometime later Sunday into Monday the 21-22nd.

SPAC

The Jet has recently been sorta quiet and weak. Yet, overall it has been fattened up and empowered off & on as we ‘Fall toward Winter’ down under. It’s been a decent run of SSW to SSE swells. We’ve already had a handful this spring and there’s at least 6 more coming in May. This Thursday 5/18 the Jet improves with a NE flow to the SE and up the coast of NZL in a broad large arc up over a high far east of NZL. Plenty energy overall. Right now it’s HEADS UP for thee biggest SSW we’ve seen in awhile(read below). Many thanks to this Jet pattern improvement later this week.

#1 Recent: Plenty small but fun kine surf from the S-SSW has been regularly sweeping into the southern exposures all month. The recent one was 14sec and solid 2-3’ sets at best breaks with brisk side-off ENE trades and scattered clouds. Plenty crowds this last wkend. The creator was a low south of Tahiti on Cinco de Mayo. The South should peaked thru Sunday at 3’ solid.

#2 Next: There’s another broader S-SSW than the last one (South) at 15 secs so a little more power but a portion of this is ‘sideband’ swell limiting ‘the hit’ (=plenty fetch pointing to Americas). It’s filling by early Tuesday up to 3’ or head high and this one will veer South to SSE and hold thru Wednesday. Trades will have backed off for cleaner surf.

#3 Next: A tropical Low named Donna morphed into a cold core low (extra tropical) off the East coast of North NZL last Saturday the 13th only 3200 miles off. Due to the fact it’s nearly 1000 miles nearer than may SSW producers, we could and should see some 3+’ SSW surf at 16 sec filling Friday the 19th peaking through Saturday 20th.

#4 NEXT: Slight downgrade from Saturday 5/13. But confidence is building that a BIG one is possible. By Friday the 19th there’s a big Low just off the SE coast of NZL. It has up to 38'seas. The NNE track is good but it does start close to the coast into Saturday w/a semi captured fetch where it weakens quickly with up to 30' seas. WW3 is on Monday claims 1' 20 sec forerunners Thursday morning (intial trend was going from 2-3' at 20s). Deep water swell will reach 2’ 18sec late Thursday building all nite. Friday morning 5/26 should get 3+'swell @ 18s creating occas 6' sets at top spots and increase in size & regularity that afternoon. It'll start off slow with lulls due to long travel distance. The super long period will focus, refract, shoal these fat & fast open ocean swells into way above advsry level surf (just 8'faces) for top reefs Friday-Sunday... at least(Warnings are 8’ Hawaiian or 15’ faces. Models hinted this last Saturday & it will near it at this point of the chart forecasts). The surf will be crankin' 5-7’ (12'faces) at dawn Saturday the 27th with buoys at 4+' @ 16. The episode will very slowing fade from there with some 4-6' Sunday, 3-5 Monday. (Again, as we always NOTE: Monday is still model fantasy; we want you to have a ‘heads up’. We'll know better & better this Wednesday/Thursday and especially Fri/Saturday (17-20th).

#5 NEXT: Sunday's models show a fast backup storm in the same area SE of NZL by Sunday May 21st. It's weaker but tracking NNE with a partially captured fetch & still substantial seas up to 30'. The Low weakens Monday with 28' seas. So, the end result for Hawaii suggests 3+' deep water at 15sec Monday nite the 29th with Tuesday dawn showing surf solid 3-5'. This one-two punch will keep us way overhead 6 days straight.

#6 LAST: Models fantasize yet another Low further ESE of NZL by Tuesday 5/23 for a possible 3-5' SSW on the last day of May. We'll go with 50/50 for now.

Trade swells

Trades have been back for a while & quite strong & gusty. Thus, the uptick in advsry surf of solid 4+' Saturday-Monday. Of course, it’s more chopped & chunky. That strong 1035mb high is staying ‘round thru Monday but it's slowly easing as it drifts east. The long upstream fetch allowed the wind-swell (trades) to bump up to 9-10sec, enough for an extra 1-2’ higher surf from greater shoaling, refraction & diffraction (read below). We'll get back to our typical 7-8sec trade swell of 2’ or 2.5’ or waist to chest this Thursday onward.

Shoaling is the effect by which surface waves entering shallower water change in wave height (or grow) due to speed change (or slow down). Wave length is reduced when going from deeper to shallower. The ‘energy flux’ must remain constant (nature’s liquid law) so the reduction in wave group (transport) speed is compensated by an increase in wave height (and thus wave energy density). Yeah, I know…waves are complex AND amazing.
Refraction is the change in direction of waves that occurs when waves travel from one medium to another or depth change. Refraction is always accompanied by a wavelength & speed change. Diffraction is the bending & spreading of waves around obstacles (‘reefs’ and openings).

The Tropics
So far nothing on the forecast for Hawaii for the next week. Last week Wednesday the 10th ‘Adrian’ weakened but not after becoming the earliest tropical storm on record in the East Pac! The official start of East Pac Hurricane season in May 15th.





NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.

All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy
Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles)
Angle: 307 deg

Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------

Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355

(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------

10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9

12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9

14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5

16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4

18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6

20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9

22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4

24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9



Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria

Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Foot faces (8' Local) 25' Foot faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Foot (7' local) 20 Foot (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Foot (4'+ local) 12 Foot (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Foot (4'+ local) 15 Foot (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.

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