SURF N SEA 728 BLOWOUT

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SURF BOARD FACTORY STEP UP NOV.22 DEC 2019

NOON UPDATE: Obs Saturday Jan 25th

Light to moderate ENE Trades. Above HSW for north shores of all islands, Advisory for West shores of BI; SCA all waters due to large open ocean swell.

X-LARGE NW BUILDING throughout the day, small ENE wind swell and tiny trace of SW and tiny west wrap later for town. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon & 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Up and Rising BIG 18sec NW. Most spots closing out already! 12-18' later, w/ isolated 20'. Sunset to Pipe are washed up and out, 2nd-3rd reefing. Chun's-Laniakea-Ali'i 10-15+'. Cloudy w/ occ. showers. Exercise caution, rips, LOTS of water moving around.
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West:

Up and Rising NW. Makaha is 6-10' now, expected 8-12' this afternoon. Clean offshores and lite-mod. trades under mostly cloudy skies.
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Town:

Down and holding tiny SW and isolated WNW wrap traces expected esp later. Kewalos to Courts and Bowls to Kaisers all super clean at 0-1.5' with maybe a weak occ 2' under cloudy skies. Isolated 2+' wrap expected tonight and tomorrow AM.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Down and holding small SW and tiny isolated WNW wrap. 1 to barely 2' and trades back with sideshore chop. Down from yesterday; possibly another west wrap episode tonight/tomorrow. Rain showers here and there.

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Sandy's:

Holding tiny 8sec ENE Trade wind swell. Sandy's is 1-2' breaking Full Pt to Pipe Littles, and shorebreak with bumpy sideshores under cloudy skies.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding tiny ENE trade swell, maybe some NW wrap in the late afternoon/tomorrow. Surf's 1-2' with moderate chop. and occl. showers.
BISHOP MUSEUM SURF EXHIBIT

Winds

Saturday
Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

Sunday
Range:
10-20+mph East Trade

Monday
Range:
5-15mph ESE

Tuesday
Range:
5-10mph SW Kona

Wednesday
Range:
5-10mph N to NE

North

Saturday
01/25

Primary

Rising 18s NW
Haw: 12-18+
Face: 18-30+

Secondary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Fair side-offshores
Closed out
Sunday
01/26

Primary

Dropping 16s NW
Haw: 10-15+
Face: 15-25+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Monday
01/27

Primary

Dropping 14s NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Tuesday
01/28

Primary

Dropping 14s NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Wednesday
01/29

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

Rising Midday 14s NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20
Good offshores

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West

Saturday
01/25

Primary

Rising 18s NW
Haw: 10-15+
Face: 15-25+

Secondary

Dropping 12s WSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair side-offshores
Sunday
01/26

Primary

Dropping 16s NW
Haw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+

Secondary

Rising Slow 16s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Monday
01/27

Primary

Dropping 14s NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18

Secondary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Tuesday
01/28

Primary

Dropping 14s NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Wednesday
01/29

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good offshores
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South

Saturday
01/25

Primary

Dropping 12s WSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Rising Late Evening 18s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair-Good side-offshore

Sunday
01/26

Primary

Rising Slow 16s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Monday
01/27

Primary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Tuesday
01/28

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Wednesday
01/29

Primary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

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east

Saturday
01/25

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Sunday
01/26

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Monday
01/27

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Tuesday
01/28

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Rough

Wednesday
01/29

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

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Current Swells:

Saturday 01/25
Primary: Rising 18s NW surf @12-18+ 
Secondary: Dropping 12s WSW surf @1 occ 2 
Third: Holding 8s ENE surf @1-2 
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   01/25
Small Craft Advisory due to winds and large swells. For North and West shores: ABOVE High Surf Warning
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   01/25
Good again with lite to moderate NE Trades all weekend. Large swells.
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Diving Report:

Saturday   01/25
NO GO. Code Red. Poor esp dangerous thru the weekend due to XXL NW swell for North and West. South good for select prime zones with small surf. East is fair to good and improving for inside reefs and same for select outside reefs.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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