SURF N SEA BLOW OUT 2020. 728 11.30-

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HIC BLACK FRIDAY 11/25-12/2/20

640am OBS Big Wednesday 12/02/20

Crisp, clear morning with light trades filling; seabreezes for leeward shores by lunch. ABOVE High Surf Warning Kauai-Maui: BIG NW peaking today. SCA for all waters due to large open ocean swells coming: High Surf Advisory for Big Isle western shores

Big Picture updated 12/01. GIANT NW 18sec swell! Holding small ENE trade w/ NW wrap. Flat-Tiny along South but isolated NW wrap coming midday. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon & 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Way up and Peaking XXL NW with 18sec periods. Mostly Outer reefs breaking, washing though most other spots. Sunset and Pipeline washed out at 10-18+'; Waimea still coming to life -long lulls at 12-18'; 20' likely later. Outer reefs up to near 25' on the sets. Wind conditions are clean but lots of water moving! Clear skies early w/ clouds forming inland by noon.
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West:

Up & Rising large NW. Makaha is WAY up at 8-12' +. Clean conditions early but seabreezes expected to mush things up by late AM. Clear skies early w/ clouds forming inland by noon.
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Town:

Holding micro, inconsistent 13sec SSW; Isolated NW wrap expected later. Ala Moana, Kaisers, Kewalos are peaky and mostly 1-1.5 occ +'; Waikiki reefs are mostly flat - 1.5'. Super clean early but seabreezes expected by midday.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Holding micro, inconsistent 13sec SSW. Surf is Flat-1 occ +'; (knee-waist high) clean early but trades and seabreezes expected by mid morning; Clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Holding 8 sec NE trade swell wrap and occ South traces; North wrap filling. Full Pt and Half Pt. braeking 2-3'. Chambers looking treacherous but solid! Clear skies early.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 8 sec NE trade swell and 18 sec North wrap. Surf's is 2-3 occ 4' long, consistent lines across the bay, backing off on the outside, slamming at the shorebreak. Light trades and somewhat disorganized. Clear skies for now.
Cholos 728 Take Out 728 3/26  …8/27 ON

Winds

Wednesday
Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade
to seabreezes midday-afternoon
Thursday
Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade
isolated seabreezes midday-afternoon
Friday
Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Saturday
Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade
to seabreezes midday-afternoon
Sunday
Range:
5-7mph Variables to konas

North

Wednesday
12/02

Primary

Up & holding 18s NNW
Haw: 12-20
Face: 18-35

Secondary

Dropping 8s NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Good offshores
Outer Reefs isolated 25'
Thursday
12/03

Primary

Dropping Slow 15s NNW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good

Friday
12/04

Primary

Dropping Slow 12s NNW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+

Secondary

Rising late Afternoon 14s NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20
Fair to good

Saturday
12/05

Primary

New Swell 12s NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Fair to good

Sunday
12/06

Primary

Up & holding 12s NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+

Secondary

Rising Late Evening 18s NNW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Good offshores

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West

Wednesday
12/02

Primary

Up & holding 18s NNW
Haw: 10-15+
Face: 15-25+

Secondary

Holding 13s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good offshores
Thursday
12/03

Primary

Dropping Slow 15s NNW
Haw: 0
Face: 0

Secondary

Holding 11s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
Friday
12/04

Primary

Dropping Slow 12s NNW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

Rising 16s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
Saturday
12/05

Primary

New Swell 12s NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
Sunday
12/06

Primary

Up & holding 12s NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good offshores
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South

Wednesday
12/02

Primary

Holding 13s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy late-morning
small Isolated wrap later
Thursday
12/03

Primary

Holding 11s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy late-morning

Friday
12/04

Primary

Rising 16s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Saturday
12/05

Primary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin

Sunday
12/06

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

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east

Wednesday
12/02

Primary

Up & Rising 16s N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good
Isolated Reefs much bigger
Thursday
12/03

Primary

Dropping 15s N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good
Isolated Reefs bigger
Friday
12/04

Primary

Dropping 12s NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

Holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good

Saturday
12/05

Primary

Rising 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Sunday
12/06

Primary

Rising 8s ENE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Semi-Clean

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Current Swells:

Wednesday 12/02
Primary: Up & holding 18s NNW surf @12-20 
Secondary: Up & Rising 16s N surf @2-4 
Third: Holding 13s SSW surf @0-1.5 
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   12/02
WAY ABOVE HIGH SURF WARNING THRESHOLD FOR NW SHORES DUE TO XXL NW. High Surf Advisory for western Big Island. SCA for all waters do to large open ocean swells.
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   12/02
Fair as lite ENE trades begin to fill back in. Midday to afternoon seabreezes...
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   12/02
Poor for most North and West facing shores due to XXL surf; Fair-Good for less sandy South shore zones but significant stirring with tides spread; Fair for most inside reefs along Windward shores but major stirring with tides; outer shores catching NW wrap.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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