645am OBS, Tuesday, March 25th
Partly cloudy skies with a few windward and mauka showers. A mix of light ESE flow and offshore land breezes, then a mix of light to moderate ESE wind and onshore sea breezes towards lunch. High Surf Advisory for North and West shores of Niihau-Molokai and North shores of Maui.
Big Picture updated 3/23. Moderate to large NW. Small-tiny SW. Small East trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

North Shore:
Dropping 13 sec NW. Good, excellent offshore wind making for very well-groomed surf. Sunset 5-8'; Rocky Pt 4-6'+; Pipe 5-7'; Chuns 4-6'; Laniakea 4-6'; Ali'i Beach Park 3-5'. Scattered clouds.
West:
Dropping 13 sec NW. Clean conditions this morning under a slight offshore land breeze, mushing out later this morning as a sea breeze takes hold. Makaha is 3-4' occ. 5' and mostly breaking within the bowl. Partly cloudy skies.
Town:
Holding 13 sec SW. Smooth with glassy patches due to a very light breeze. Waikiki reefs are 1-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-1.5' maybe a rare 2'. Partly cloudy skies.
Diamond Head:
Holding 13 sec SW + Holding minor trade wind swell wrap. Mostly clean conditions due to a light breeze early. Surf's 1-occ. 2' at takeoff. Scattered clouds.
Sandy's:
Holding East trade wind swell wrap + Dropping North wrap. Surf's clean for now but watch for a sea breeze/trade wind hybrid to mush things out by midday. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'. Shorebreak is 1-2' and spread out across the beach. Partly cloudy skies.
East Makapu'u:
Holding 8 sec East trade wind swell + Dropping North wrap. Mostly smooth condition due to a very light breeze early, mushing out later in the morning. Surf's 1-2' on the shorebreak and spread throughout the bay. Scattered clouds.Winds
5-15mph ESE
midday sea breezes
5-10mph SE
midday sea breezes
5-10mph SE
midday sea breezes
5-10mph ESE
midday sea breezes
5-10mph East Trade
midday sea breezes
North
Primary

Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent
Primary

Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary
Rising Afternoon 10s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
2.5' dusk
Primary
Up & holding 12s NHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Rising Afternoon 14s NNEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Up & holding 12s NNEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
West
Primary

Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent
Primary

Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Rising Afternoon 10s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary
Up & holding 12s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Up & holding 15s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Up & Rising 19s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
South
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
2.5' later
Primary
Up & holding 15s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Rising Afternoon 21s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary
Up & Rising 19s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
east
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smoother early-mushier midday
North wrap
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smoother early-mushier midday
North wrap
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Rising Afternoon 10s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Smoother early-mushier midday
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Up & holding 12s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
slightly choppy
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
slightly choppy

Current Swells:
Tuesday 03/25Primary: Dropping 13s NW surf @5-8
Secondary: Holding 8s E surf @1 occ 2
Third: Holding 13s SW surf @1-1.5

Marine Warnings:
Tuesday 03/25Trend: None.

Sailing Report:
Tuesday 03/25Fair due to light to moderate ESE trades of 5-15mph.

Diving Report:
Tuesday 03/25North shores: Poor for most zones due to moderate to large surf and light offshore trades. West: Fair due to small to moderate surf and light winds. South: Good due to small surf and lite winds. East: Fair to good for most zones due to small surf and lite onshore trades.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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