705am OBS, Saturday, October 5th
Calm morning with some high clouds and very light trades filling to moderate paces midday. Mid-day sea breezes mixing in for most coasts. No marine warnings.
Small N-NNW mix. Declining tiny SSW & new long period South. Tiny trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Down and Dropping 10 sec N-NNW. Clean and glassy early, becoming mushy by late morning. Sunset 1-2'; Rocky Pt 1-occ. 2'; Pipe 1-occ. 2'; Chuns 1-occ. 2'; Laniakea 1-2 occ. +; Ali'i Beach Park 0-1.5' under scattered clouds.West:
Down and Dropping 10 sec N-NNW + Down and dropping 11 sec SSW + new 20 sec South. Clean under light offshores but sea breezes mixing in towards late morning. Makaha is 0-1 occ soft 2' combo peaks. Scattered clouds.Town:
Down and dropping 11 sec SSW + new 20 sec South. Clean due to light offshores. Waikiki reefs are 0-1' occ. 1.5' average; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 0-1.5 very occ. soft 2' and long lulls. Scattered clouds.Diamond Head:
Down and dropping 11 sec SSW + new 20 sec South. Slightly textured under light side shore ENE trades. Surf's 1-very occ. 2' under scattered clouds.Sandy's:
Down and dropping 11 sec SSW + new 20 sec South + tiny trade wrap and a trace of North wrap. Ruffled side offshores. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2' occ. + combo peaks. Shorebreak is focused from Cobbles to Middle Peak at 1-2' and some back wash. Scattered clouds.East Makapu'u:
Up & holding 13 sec North wrap + Rising 11 sec ENE. Semi-clean early due to light trades, becoming bumpy by mid-morning. Surf's 1-1.5' occ. soft 2' and breaking along the shore all the way to Keiki corner. Scattered clouds.Winds
5-15mph ENE Trade
Afternoon Seabreezes
5-15+mph ENE Trade
Afternoon Leeward Seabreezes
10-20mph ENE Trade
ramping 20+ later
10-25mph ENE Trade
10-25mph ENE Trade
North
Primary
Dropping 10s NNWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Up & holding 13s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary
Rising 22s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Dropping 11s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
4' evening
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NNWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
6'+ afternoon
Primary
Dropping 13s NNWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary
Dropping Slow 12s NNWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
West
Primary
Dropping 10s NNWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 11s SSWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Rising 22s NNWHaw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Good
Primary
Up & Rising 15s NNWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
Up & holding 14s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping 13s NNWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
Dropping Slow 13s SHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
Primary
Dropping Slow 12s NNWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Dropping Slow 13s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
South
Primary
Dropping 11s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Rising 20s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
2.5' later
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Up & holding 14s SHaw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Dropping Slow 13s SHaw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Dropping Slow 13s SHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Rising 24s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
east
Primary
Up & holding 13s NHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Rising 11s ENEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Mushy
Primary
Up & Rising 10s ENEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Rising 22s NHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Mushy
Primary
Up & holding 10s ENEHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Up & Rising 15s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Mushy
North wrap
Primary
Dropping 9s ENEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Up & holding 14s NHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
bumpy
North wrap
Primary
Dropping 8s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 12s NHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Choppy
North wrap
Current Swells:
Saturday 10/05Primary: Dropping 10s NNW surf @1-2 occ +
Secondary: Dropping 11s SSW surf @0-1.5
Third: Up & holding 13s N surf @1 occ 2
Marine Warnings:
Saturday 10/05None
Sailing Report:
Saturday 10/05Good esp. toward lunch into afternoon due to light to moderate 5-15+ mph ENE trades and an afternoon sea breeze mix.
Diving Report:
Saturday 10/05North shores: Fair due to small N-NNW surf (best bet deeper dives) smooth AM and Mushy PM as afternoon seabreezes kick in with partly cloudy skies. West shores: Good for most zones (best on deeper dives) smooth AM and Mushy PM as afternoon seabreezes kick in with mostly clear skies. South shores: Fair to good for most prime dive zones (best bet deeper zones), light to moderate side-offshore trades, and partly cloudy skies. East shores: Fair-good overall for top zones with light onshore trades, small surf, and scattered clouds.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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