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Upper Cervical 728

11am UPdate OBS Wednesday 1-17-18 powered by HIC & Volcom Pipe Pro

Broken Clouds for Leeward & North shore, overcast for Windward/ Mauka. Moderate to strong NE trades. Above High Surf Adv for NW shores by 3pm, Gales for Maui County. Small Craft Adv all waters.

BIG NW building, moderate Trade swell rising, tiny SSW. Call 596-SURF 7a, 12p, 3p, 5pm

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North Shore:

Up & Rising 14 sec BIG NW to 10-15' late today closing out most spots. Surf is solid 6-8' now. NE trades solid sideoff 15-30+. Sunset 6-8+', Pipe to 5-8', Chuns to 5-7'; Laniakea same; Ali'i to 6' and near doubling in size today under cloudy skies.
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West:

Up & Rising 13 sec BIG NW. Makaha is 3-5' early then 6-10' later today, with good form and clean but strong offshore. NE trades moderate to strong under partly clear skies.
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Town:

Down & Dropping 12 sec South. Surf is smaller than yesterday with low energy 0-1.5' with smooth brisk offshores and poor shape, short rides for top reefs like Ala Moana to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens mostly 0-1.5' under cloudy skies.
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Diamond Head:

Holding Wind waves and trace 12 sec South. Surf is 1-2.5' and chunky, choppy & torn under cloudy skies.
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Sandy's:

Up and rising 8 sec NE trade swell + occ trace of South Surf is 1-2' occ 3' and semi-bumpy fresh NE but more chop coming with trades filling 15-30+. Poor-Fair form with short interval energy from Full+1/2 Point and 1-2+' from Middle Peaks to Chambers under mostly cloudy skies
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East Makapu'u:

Up & Rising 8 sec NE trade swell. Surf is 2-3' and choppy. 2-4' later. Top sets breaking even across the bay. Plenty closeout sections under cloudy skies.
Cholos 728×90 generic

Weather

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 86°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph E

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Range:
15-35mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade

Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

North

Thursday
01/18
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Dropping Fast
TREND: 7' 13 sec
Friday
01/19
NW+NE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Dropping
NE to 4'
Saturday
01/20
NW+NE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising Midday
3' 15 sec 2pm
Sunday
01/21
NW+NE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising
5' 12 sec NNW + 10' 10 sec NE
Monday
01/22
NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
Rising
6' 16 sec + old 4' NNW+NE
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West

Thursday
01/18
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Dropping
TREND
Friday
01/19
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising

Saturday
01/20
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding

Sunday
01/21
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising

Monday
01/22
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Rising
3' 18sec
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South

Thursday
01/18
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding
TREND:
Friday
01/19
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Rising Slow
.5' 16 sec
Saturday
01/20
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
1' 15 sec
Sunday
01/21
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
.8' 14sec
Monday
01/22
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Rising
1' 14 sec + .5, 21 sec
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east

Thursday
01/18
NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
TREND:
Friday
01/19
NE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Rising
9' 9 sec
Saturday
01/20
NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising

Sunday
01/21
NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Holding

Monday
01/22
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Holding

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Current Swells:

Thursday   01/18
Primary: Dropping  NW  TREND: 5-7' at 12 sec
Secondary: Rising  E-NE  TREND: 2-4' surf at 8 sec
Third: Holding  S-SW  TREND: 0-1 occ +' surf at 11 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Thursday   01/18
High Surf ADV for North Shores + Gales for channels near Maui/Big Is. + Small Craft Adv due to very strong trades
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Sailing Report:

Thursday   01/18
Good for experts with moderate-strong-gale NE Trades
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Diving Report:

Thursday   01/18
Poor for North shores; fair-good for deeper zones at select West shores. Poor Dives for along inside reefs of the East or Windward sides; best/good for isolated deeper South shores.

Oahu

SUNSET
Thursday   01/18
NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
NE Trades strong-gales
bumpy
TREND:
ROCKY POINT
Thursday   01/18
NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
NE Trades strong-gales
bumpy
TREND:
Pipeline
Thursday   01/18
NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
NE Trades strong-gales
bumpy
TREND:
HALEIWA
Thursday   01/18
NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
NE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good
TREND:
MAKAHA
Thursday   01/18
NW
Haw: 4-6 occ +
Face: 6-10 occ +
ENE Trades moderate-strong
good
TREND:
ALA MOANA
Thursday   01/18
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades moderate-strong
fair
TREND:
Waikiki
Thursday   01/18
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades moderate-strong
good
TREND:
Diamond Head
Thursday   01/18
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
NE Trades moderate-strong
choppy
TREND:
Sandy Beach
Thursday   01/18
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy
TREND:
Makapuu
Thursday   01/18
E-NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-strong
choppy
TREND:

Maui

Hookipa
Thursday   01/18
NW
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Trades strong-gales
choppy

Honolua
Thursday   01/18
NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Trades strong-gales
MARGINAL
TREND:
Kihei
Thursday   01/18
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades strong-gales
wind blown conditons
TREND:
Hana
Thursday   01/18
ENE+N
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades strong-gales
choppy
TREND:
Lahaina
Thursday   01/18
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good
TREND:

Kauai

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Thursday   01/18
ENE+N
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Trades strong-gales
choppy

Kohala
Thursday   01/18
NW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades strong-gales
bumpy

Kona
Thursday   01/18
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades strong-gales
fair to good

Hilo
Thursday   01/18
ENE+N
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades strong-gales
choppy

Kau
Thursday   01/18
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades strong-gales
choppy

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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