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JJ Dolans

7am OBS Fri. 8/17 Pwrd by Dukes Oceanfest Open Ceremony Tomorrow 430p

Mostly clear morning with scattered clouds Leeward and calm to light ENE trade filling. Maui has Flood Adv but otherwise No Warnings overall.

SNN "BIG PICTURE" UPDATED Thursday Eve 8/16. Tiny ENE trade, small South, remnant NW swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, 12, 3 & 5p recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Down & dropping on a trace 10 sec NW. Excellent diving, paddling. Sunset Pt. 0-1', Kammies flat-1, Rocky Pt. 0-1 occ +'; Pipe zone 0-1'; Laniakea 0 occ.1', Chuns 0-1 occ +' & Ali'i Beach flat-1' under scattered clouds.
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West:

Down & dropping South. Makaha 0-1' behind and inside the reef. Super smooth with calm to lite trades filling under clear skies (onshore seabreezes possible midday).
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Town:

Down & dropping 15sec South. Surf is mostly 0-1-2' (few isolated occ. 2.5 (chest highs) with fair form, weak & inconsistent. Light Trades filling. Kewalos to Courts seeing sets 0-1-2'. Bowls to Kaisers 0-1-2'. Threes to Pops-Queens 0-1-2' under scattered clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Small fading South. Surf is 1-2' with fair form & fairly clean lite AM trades under scattered clouds.
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Sandy's:

Small South + trade swell mix plate. Surf is 1-2' with some near 3' sets and a few fun sandbars. Smooth early and crowded. Surf is 2' at Full Pt. Bigger in the Shorebreak to Gas Chambers; sketchy weather early.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and Holding small 8 sec trade wind swell. Makapu'u is 0-1-2' on or near shore with a light onshore chop. Keiki side mostly 0-1' and mostly cloudy skies.
Seaspecs April 2018 Matt

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
80°F
max: 94°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
80°F
max: 94°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
18mph NE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
80°F
max: 95°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
80°F
max: 92°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 92°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph NE

Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade
seabreeze mix later?
Range:
5-15+mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Range:
15-30mph ENE Trade

North

Friday
08/17

Primary

Dropping 10s NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
glassy

Saturday
08/18

Primary

Holding 8s NW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Sunday
08/19

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Monday
08/20

Primary

Rising Later 10s NNW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
fairly clean

Tuesday
08/21

Primary

Rising 10s NNW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

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West

Friday
08/17

Primary

Dropping Slow 15s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 10s NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good
Saturday
08/18

Primary

Holding 14s SSE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Holding 8s NW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Good offshores
Sunday
08/19

Primary

Holding 12s SSE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Monday
08/20

Primary

Dropping 10s SSE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

Rising Later 10s NNW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
smooth
Tuesday
08/21

Primary

Rising 10s NNW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Holding 9s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
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South

Friday
08/17

Primary

Dropping Slow 15s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Saturday
08/18

Primary

Holding 14s SSE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Sunday
08/19

Primary

Holding 12s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Monday
08/20

Primary

Dropping 10s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
smooth

Tuesday
08/21

Primary

Holding 9s SSE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Offshore

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east

Friday
08/17

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Saturday
08/18

Primary

Rising Slow 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Sunday
08/19

Primary

Rising Slow 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Monday
08/20

Primary

Rising 8s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Tuesday
08/21

Primary

Rising 8s ENE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

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Current Swells:

Friday 08/17
Primary: Dropping Slow 15s S surf @1-2 occ + 

Third: Dropping 10s NW surf @0-1.5 
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   08/17
None, but watch out for possible remnant Manowar on the East and SE sides (Sherwoods to Makapu'u to Sandys'-Hanauma)
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Sailing Report:

Friday   08/17
Fair with Light ENE Trades
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Diving Report:

Friday   08/17
Good for North shores spots & good for West-Side zones; good for most south shores. Windward side: good for inside reefs, fair-good for outside reefs.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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