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7am OBS Tuesday, January 31th

Scattered clouds with residual windward and mauka showers. Calm to light offshore land breezes early filling to a mix of light ESE wind and sea breezes towards lunch. Gale Warning for outer Hawaiian waters.

Big Picture updated 1/29. Small-medium NW. Out-of-season SSW-S. Small North and ENE trade swells. Traces of new NW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Dropping 14 sec NW + Rising Slow 21 sec NW + Holding 9 sec North + Holding 8 sec trade wrap. Surf's clean due to light winds. Sunset 3-5' occ. +; Rocky Pt 3-5'; Pipe 2-4'+; Chuns-Jockos 3-4'+; Laniakea 3-4'+; Ali'i Beach Park 3-4'. Mostly cloudy with passing showers.
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West:

Dropping 14 sec NW + Rising Slow 21 sec NW + Up & Rising 17 sec SSW. Surf's clean under calm-lite offshores. Makaha is a mixed plate of 1-2'+ and mostly breaking inside the reef. Mostly clear skies.
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Town:

Up & Rising 17 sec SSW. Light winds and clean conditions. Waikiki reefs are 1-2' occ. +; Top spots: Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2' occ. near 3' and inconsistent. Watch for more consistent 3' sets this afternoon. A few clouds.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Up & Rising 17 sec SSW. Slightly textured due to light sideshore winds. Surf's 2-3' solid when the sets come but inconsistent. Mostly clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Up & Rising 17 sec SSW + minor East wrap. Surf's fairly clean due to NE-tilted winds. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-3'. Shorebreak's also 1-2' occ. 3', stretching from Middles to Gas Chambers. Scattered clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 8 sec ENE trade swell + Dropping 9 sec North. Fairly clean conditions due to light winds. Surf's 1-3' and spilling on the outside left. Keiki's is slightly smaller at 1-2'+. Partly cloudy skies.
SURF N SEA BLOW OUT 11.16-1.31.23  728X90

Winds

Tuesday
Range:
5-10mph ESE

Wednesday
Range:
5-7mph Variables

Thursday
Range:
5-7mph NE Trade

Friday
Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Saturday
Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

North

Tuesday
01/31

Primary

Dropping 14s WNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Dropping 9s N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Good early , fair later
Rising slow 21s NW @ 1-3
Wednesday
02/01

Primary

Up & Rising 16s NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

Dropping 12s WNW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
5' afternoon
Thursday
02/02

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

Rising Slow 12s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good early , fair later

Friday
02/03

Primary

Holding 12s NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

Up & dropping 12s NE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair

Saturday
02/04

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Rising Later 16s NNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Fair to good

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West

Tuesday
01/31

Primary

Dropping 14s WNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Up & Rising 17s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
Wednesday
02/01

Primary

Up & Rising 16s NW
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+

Secondary

Up & holding 16s S
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
Thursday
02/02

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+

Secondary

Dropping Slow 14s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good early , fair later
Friday
02/03

Primary

Holding 12s NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Dropping 13s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Saturday
02/04

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
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South

Tuesday
01/31

Primary

Up & Rising 17s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
some wobble
Wednesday
02/01

Primary

Up & holding 16s S
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later

Thursday
02/02

Primary

Dropping Slow 14s S
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later

Friday
02/03

Primary

Dropping 13s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Saturday
02/04

Primary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

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east

Tuesday
01/31

Primary

Holding 9s ENE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

Dropping 9s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later

Wednesday
02/01

Primary

Dropping 9s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later

Thursday
02/02

Primary

Dropping 8s E
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Rising Slow 12s NE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Smooth early-mushy later

Friday
02/03

Primary

Rising 6s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Up & dropping 12s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Choppy
3' late afternoon
Saturday
02/04

Primary

Up & holding 8s NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

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Current Swells:

Tuesday 01/31
Primary: Dropping 14s WNW surf @3-5 
Secondary: Holding 9s ENE surf @2-3 
Third: Up & Rising 17s SSW surf @1-2 occ 3 
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   01/31
Gale Warning for outer Hawaiian waters (beyond 40nm).
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   01/31
Poor to fair due to light E-ESE winds of 5-10+ mph.
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   01/31
North shores: Fair due to small to moderate surf and light winds; West shores: Fair to good due to small surf and light winds. South shores: Fair for most spots with small surf and light winds. East shores: Fair for most spots with small-moderate surf and light winds.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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