SURF N SEA BLOW OUT 728 11.16-1.31.22

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Cholos 728×90 Generic

645am OBS Tuesday Nov 30th

Gloomy with scattered showers. E trades increasing to moderate-fresh paces midday. Small Craft Adv. for Pailolo Channel - Maui - Big Island channels.

SNN Big Picture updated 11/29 3pm. Small NNW. Small-mod trade swell and traces of southerly energy. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon & 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Dropping 12 sec NNW. Surf's fair to good with breezy side-offshore winds early, stronger winds later but remaining side-offshore. Sunset 2-3' and Rocky Pt 2-3'; Pipe 1-3' jumbled up; Chuns-Jockos 1-2' occ 3'; Laniakea 1-3'; Haleiwa 1-2'+ under mostly cloudy skies and increasing showers.
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West:

Dropping 12 sec NNW. Makaha is a clean 1-2' with stiff offshores early this morning. Trades increase to 10-25mph this afternoon. Partly cloudy skies.
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Town:

Holding just traces of southerly energy. Lite-moderate ENE trades this morning and fairly smooth. Surf is mostly flat for Waikiki reefs and most zones aren't rideable. Top spots: Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are flat-1' off and on. Broken clouds w/ showers.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Holding just traces of southerly energy + trade wrap. Light-moderate ENE trades making for lumpy and bumpy waters, becoming super bumpy later. Surf's 0-1.5' (flat-knee-waist high) at takeoff, under broken clouds and showers.
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Sandy's:

Holding trade swell wrap. Surf has fairly food texture this morning but becoming tattered later. Full Pt-Half Pt is 1-3' with a chance of a +'; Shorebreak's peaky at mostly 1-2' occ 3'. Partly cloudy w/ passing showers.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 8 sec NE trade swell. Surf's lumpy, bumpy, and mushy under moderate onshores. Surf's 2-3' occ +' breaking on the outside left; Keiki's 1-3' under mostly cloudy skies w/ showers.
Surf n Sea 728×90 generic 1/22/21

Winds

Tuesday
Range:
10-25mph East Trade
dropping
Wednesday
Range:
10-20mph East Trade

Thursday
Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade
Shifting W midday
Friday
Range:
15-30mph North

Saturday
Range:
10-20mph NW

North

Tuesday
11/30

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Wednesday
12/01

Primary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Rising Midday 13s NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Good
4' later
Thursday
12/02

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Dropping 11s NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Nice early , Bad later

Friday
12/03

Primary

Rising Fast 12s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Poor onshore
7' later
Saturday
12/04

Primary

Up & Rising 12s NNW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14

Secondary

Rising Midday 14s NNW
Haw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+
Poor onshore
18' later
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West

Tuesday
11/30

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Holding 8s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Wednesday
12/01

Primary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Rising Slow 16s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good
Thursday
12/02

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Holding 15s S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Nice early , Bad later
Friday
12/03

Primary

Rising Fast 12s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Holding 14s S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Poor onshore
Saturday
12/04

Primary

Up & Rising 12s NNW
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+

Secondary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Poor onshore
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South

Tuesday
11/30

Primary

Holding 8s SSE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Wednesday
12/01

Primary

Rising Slow 16s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Thursday
12/02

Primary

Holding 15s S
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Friday
12/03

Primary

Holding 14s S
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

Rising 16s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good

Saturday
12/04

Primary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

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east

Tuesday
11/30

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Lumpy-Bumpy

Wednesday
12/01

Primary

Dropping 8s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Thursday
12/02

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Poor early , Better Later

Friday
12/03

Primary

Dropping 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Rising Later 12s N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Poor-fair side-shores
N wrap
Saturday
12/04

Primary

Dropping 8s ENE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Up & Rising 12s N
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Fair early , Better Later
4'+ late
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Current Swells:

Tuesday 11/30
Primary: Holding 8s NE surf @2-3 occ + 
Secondary: Dropping 12s NNW surf @2-3 
Third: Holding 8s SSE surf @0-1 
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   11/30
SCA for Pailolo Channel - Maui - Big Island channels
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   11/30
Good with E trades filling into moderate-fresh paces
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   11/30
North Shore: Fair due to small NW swell, best bet deeper dive zones; West: good with dropping surf; good-excellent for deeper dives; South shores: good w/ near-flat surf; even better for deeper dives. East shores: poor for most Windward inside reefs w/ higher surf and moderate-fresh onshores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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