645am OBS, Thursday, February 13th
Hazy but fairly clear. Light dawn offshore land breezes give way to S Kona winds and onshore sea breezes toward lunch thru the afternoon. High Surf Advisory for North and West shores of Niihau-Moloka'i.
Big Picture updated 2/10. Solid WNW fading. New Small South & same East trade swells. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

North Shore:
Down and Dropping 15 sec WNW. Good lite offshore land breezes this morning with South winds mixing then poss. onshore sea breezes noonish. Sunset 5-8', Rocky Pt 4-7'; Pipe 5-7', Chuns 4-6', Laniakea 4-6'; Ali'i Beach Park 3-5' maybe plus. Few clouds.
West:
Down and Dropping 15 sec WNW. Dawn has light offshore land breezes but, turning bumpier with SSW kona winds and sea breezes later this AM thru afternoon. Makaha is 3-5' looking fun for now. Hazy skies. 48th Buffalo Big Board Surfing Classic all Pres. Day weekend!
Town:
Up and holding a new South. Clean and smooth due to a light offshore land breeze for now but a light sea breeze and SSW winds will mush things out towards midday. Waikiki reefs are 1-2'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2.5' fun shape. Mostly hazy skies.
Diamond Head:
Up and holding a new South. Clean and smooth due to a light offshore land breeze for now but a light sea breeze and SSW winds will mush things out towards midday. Surf's 1-2' occ. + or chest high. Mostly hazy skies.
Sandy's:
Up and holding a new South. Clean and smooth due to a light offshore land breeze for now but a light sea breeze and SSW winds will mush things out towards midday. Holding tiny East trade wrap. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2.5'. Shore break is 1-2.5'. Few clouds and haze.
East Makapu'u:
Holding small 9 sec East trade wind swell. Nice and clean this morning due to a slight offshore land breeze and turning offshore from SSW konas later. Surf's 1-2' on the shorebreak across the bay. Few clouds and haze.Winds
5-10mph SSW Kona
land breezes at dawn; Kona's to Seabreeze toward lunch into afternoon
5-15mph Kona South
5-10mph East Trade
5-10mph SSE
5-10mph SE
North
Primary

Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
lite SSW kona
Primary

Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary

Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
Good early , fair later
almost 15' afternoon
Primary

Haw: 8-10
Face: 12-18
Secondary

Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Good to excellent
almost 15' after
Primary

Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary

Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary

Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Good
5'+ later
West
Primary

Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Secondary
Up & Rising 14s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary

Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good early , fair later
Primary

Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good to excellent
Primary

Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Secondary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good early , fair later
Primary

Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good
South
Primary
Up & Rising 14s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary

Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary

Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Poss. West wrap
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin
east
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
smooth
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
smooth

Current Swells:
Thursday 02/13Primary: Dropping 14s WNW surf @5-8
Secondary: Up & Rising 14s S surf @1-2 occ +
Third: Holding 9s E surf @1-2

Marine Warnings:
Thursday 02/13High Surf Advisory for North and West shores of Niihau-Molokai and West facing for Big Is.

Sailing Report:
Thursday 02/13Poor due to calm to light land breezes veering to light South winds and poss. sea breezes toward lunch into the afternoon.

Diving Report:
Thursday 02/13North shores: Poor and dangerous for most spots due to Adv, WNW swell. West shores: Poor to Fair and only for select deep dives due to solid surf. Lite onshore Kona winds, late AM sea breezes mixing in. South shores: Fair due to tiny surf and lite Kona winds, but midday mush and sea breezes mixing in. East shores: Good for most spots due to small surf and lite offshore Kona winds.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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