Cholos Salsa Feb 2019

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SURFBOARD FACTORY HAWAII FEB 2019 GENERIC LONG

645am OBS Aloha Friday Feb. 15th

NIcer skies for Leeward with chilly NE winds filling to 15-25mph. High Surf Adv. for Windward exposures + Small Craft Adv. from fresh Trades.

Moderate to high NE + Micro SW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3 & 5 recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Down & Dropping 11sec NE surf. Continuing poor side onshore mess and plenty brown areas. Sunset bad 3-4', Pipe area bad 2-3' and bigger down the beach. Chuns poor form 2-3+' Laniakea 3-4' maybe plus off and on. Haleiwa 3' slop under mostly clouds.
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West:

Down & Dropping Trace of NE wrap and SW. Makaha is nice offshore at 0-2' under broken clouds.
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Town:

Down & holding Tiny 11sec SW. Surf is smooth offshore 0-1.5'mostly with the chance of occ 2' from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens-Public's 0-1.5' under broken clouds.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Down & holding SSW at 1 weak 2' but decent brisk offshore under broken clouds.
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Sandy's:

Down & Holding NE wrap. Sandy's is currently fair stiff side offshore at with some 2-4+'. Full Pt washing through; sandbars with the usual heavy drops esp focused on Chambers into closeout shorebreak under windy, cloudy-rainy skies.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and Holding Advry NE swell reaching 3-5' average outside of Makapu'u; plenty white water with run off + rip current inside focused on Keiki's side under wet clouds.
HANKS TAX 2019

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 82°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
28mph NNE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 84°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph NNW

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 83°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph SW

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 85°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
13mph SSE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 83°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph E

Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Range:
5-15+mph NE Trade

Range:
5-7mph East Trade
Veering Variable
Range:
5-7mph East Trade
Veering Variable
Range:
5-7mph East Trade

North

Friday
02/15

Primary

Dropping 11s NNE
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +

Secondary

None  
Haw: 0
Face: 0
poor
Brown Water
Saturday
02/16

Primary

Dropping 11s NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Holding 14s NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
poor to fair

Sunday
02/17

Primary

Dropping 11s NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Rising Midday 16s NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Fair to good

Monday
02/18

Primary

Rising 14s NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

Holding 11s NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Fair to good

Tuesday
02/19

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Rising 10s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Fair to good

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West

Friday
02/15

Primary

Dropping 11s NNE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Dropping 12s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
poor
Saturday
02/16

Primary

Dropping 11s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Dropping 11s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
poor to fair
Sunday
02/17

Primary

Dropping 11s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Rising Slow 14s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Monday
02/18

Primary

Rising 14s NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Holding 15s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Tuesday
02/19

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Holding 15s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
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South

Friday
02/15

Primary

Dropping 12s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Saturday
02/16

Primary

Dropping 11s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Sunday
02/17

Primary

Rising Slow 14s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Monday
02/18

Primary

Holding 15s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Tuesday
02/19

Primary

Holding 15s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Offshore

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east

Friday
02/15

Primary

Dropping 12s NE
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Poor onshore

Saturday
02/16

Primary

Holding 11s NE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Sunday
02/17

Primary

Holding 10s NE
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Monday
02/18

Primary

Dropping 11s NE
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

Holding 10s N
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
bumpy

Tuesday
02/19

Primary

Dropping 10s NE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
wind blown

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Current Swells:

Friday 02/15
Primary: Dropping 11s NNE surf @2-4 occ + 
Secondary: Dropping 12s NE surf @3-5+ 
Third: Dropping 12s SW surf @0-1.5 
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   02/15
High Surf Adv for Windward shores + Small Craft Adv due to fresh NE trades. Plus brown water.
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Sailing Report:

Friday   02/15
Some weather but Fair for most areas with moderate to fresh NE Trades filling in.
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Diving Report:

Friday   02/15
Still remnant isolated Brown Water run-off. POOR for North shores and improving for deeper West shores + fair for select south shores; poor 'inside reefs' and very poor NO GO for 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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