615am OBS, Tuesday, October 3rd
A gorgeous sunrise with a mix of scattered low and high clouds. Ultra light land breezes early becoming sea breezy towards lunch. No marine warnings.
Big Picture updated 10/1. Small NNW & East trade wind swells. Tiny SSE & SW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).

North Shore:
Dropping 12 sec NNW + Rising 18 sec NW. Conditions are clean and smooth due to ultra light breezes. Sunset 2-3'+; Rocky Pt 2-3'; Pipe 1-2'; Chuns 1-3'; Laniakea 2-3'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-3'. Partly cloudy skies.
West:
Dropping 12 sec NNW + Rising 18 sec NW + Rising Slow 16 sec SW. Surf's smooth due to calm winds. Makaha is a mixed plate of 1-2'. Mostly clear skies.
Town:
Down & Holding 12 sec SSE + Rising Slow 16 sec SW. Semi-glassy conditions due to light winds. Waikiki reefs are 1-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-1.5'. Scattered clouds.
Diamond Head:
Down & Holding 12 sec SSE + Rising Slow 16 sec SW. Smooth due to a calm wind. Surf's 1-2'+ at take-off. Partly cloudy skies.
Sandy's:
Down & Holding 12 sec SSE + Rising Slow 16 sec SW + Dropping East trade swell wrap. Clean conditions due to ultra light winds. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-3'. Shorebreak is also 1-3' with a fun sand bar. Scattered clouds.
East Makapu'u:
Dropping 8 sec East trade swell + Dropping North wrap. Really clean and smooth due to a light wind. Surf's 1-2'+ mostly spread out throughout the bay and occasionally breaking on the outside left by the rocks. Scattered clouds.Winds
5-7mph Variables
Midday sea breezes
5-7mph Variables
Midday sea breezes
5-15mph East Trade
10-20mph ENE Trade
10-20mph NE Trade
North
Primary

Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & holding 13s NWHaw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Secondary

Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & Rising 13s NNWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary

Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Good
7' later
Primary

Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Poor-fair side-shores
West
Primary

Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & holding 13s NWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
Up & holding 14s SWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & Rising 13s NNWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
Primary

Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Up & holding 16s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & holding 15s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Poor-fair side-shores
South
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising Slow 16s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smoother early-mushier midday
Primary
Up & holding 14s SWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Good early , fair later
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
divin , paddlin
Primary
Up & holding 16s SWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
2.5' later
Primary
Up & holding 15s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
east
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smooth Am-mushy Pm
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Up & holding 13s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
slightly bumpy
Primary
Up & holding 8s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy

Current Swells:
Tuesday 10/03Primary: Dropping 12s NNW surf @2-3+
Secondary: Dropping 8s E surf @1-2+
Third: Holding 12s SSE surf @1-1.5

Marine Warnings:
Tuesday 10/03No marine warnings.

Sailing Report:
Tuesday 10/03Poor due to light and variable winds.

Diving Report:
Tuesday 10/03North Shore: Fair due to small NNW surf and light and variable winds, best bet for deeper dives. West shores: Good for most zones early due to small surf and light and variable winds, and mostly clear skies. South shores: Fair to good for most zones and best for deeper dives due to small surf, light winds & partly cloudy skies. East shores: Fair to good for most zones with small surf, light and variable winds and scattered clouds.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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