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Surf n Sea Harvest Moon Oct

9am OBS Monday Oct 22nd

Beautiful morning with mostly clear skies for Leeward and typical scattered-broken clouds for Windward/ Mauka. Light-moderate NE Trades. High surf advisory posted for South shores and small craft adv for channels east of Moloka'i.

Moderate-large SSW and small NNW ease; tiny ENE trade swell holds. Call 596-SURF: 7a, 12, 3 & 5p recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Down & dropping 9sec NNW. Surf is slightly bumpy 1-2.5' for top reefs with weak energy. Short interval sets providing peaky, 2-turn sections from Sunset to Rocky Pt 1-2' occ.+, Pipe 0-1-2' poor angle, Laniakea 1-2.5' peaky, crumbly, Chuns 0-2', Ali'i Beach 0-2' under mostly clear skies.
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West:

Down-dropping sizable SSW + micro NNW. Makaha is 2-3' occ.+ and smooth offshore trades. Nice shape with focusing reefs seeing slightly larger, more consistent sets under mostly clear skies.
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Town:

Down-Dropping 15sec SSW. Surf is 3-4' occ.5 still and clean with good form but long waits from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers, Threes-Pops-Queens-Publics 2-4' occ. 5' sets under mostly clear skies.
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Diamond Head:

Down-Dropping 15sec SSW. Surf is 3-4' occ.5 still but more bumpy side-offshore than ystrdy. Fair shape with a few challenging drops into fat crumbly whitewater sections; scattered clouds.
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Sandy's:

Down-Dropping 15sec SSW. Surf is 3-4' occ.5 and fair-good with moderate side-offshore bump, mostly large closeout sections in the shorepound. Full Pt to Middle Peaks fair; some scary ones into Gas Chambers under scattered-broken clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding the small 8sec NE trade swell with some N wrap. Makapu'u is slightly bumpy 1-2' breaking inside to Keiki's under broken clouds.
Cholos 728×90 generic

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 90°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 91°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 90°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 89°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
18mph NE

Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

North

Monday
10/22

Primary

Dropping 10s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy

Tuesday
10/23

Primary

Rising 15s NNW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Wednesday
10/24

Primary

Holding 12s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Thursday
10/25

Primary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Friday
10/26

Primary

Dropping 9s NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

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West

Monday
10/22

Primary

Dropping 15s SSW
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +

Secondary

Dropping 10s NNW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Good offshores
Tuesday
10/23

Primary

Dropping Slow 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Rising 15s NNW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Offshore
Wednesday
10/24

Primary

Holding 12s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good offshores
Thursday
10/25

Primary

Rising 16s SSW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Good
Friday
10/26

Primary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Dropping 9s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Good
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South

Monday
10/22

Primary

Dropping 15s SSW
Haw: 3-4 occ +
Face: 5-7 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Tuesday
10/23

Primary

Dropping Slow 14s SSW
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Offshore

Wednesday
10/24

Primary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

Rising Slow 18s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Good

Thursday
10/25

Primary

Rising 16s SSW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Good

Friday
10/26

Primary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10

Secondary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good

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east

Monday
10/22

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 9s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Typical

Tuesday
10/23

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Onshore

Wednesday
10/24

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy

Thursday
10/25

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

Friday
10/26

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

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Current Swells:

Monday 10/22
Primary: Dropping 15s SSW surf @3-4 occ + 
Secondary: Dropping 10s NNW surf @1-2+ 
Third: Holding 8s ENE surf @1-2 
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   10/22
High Surf Adv for all South Shores + Small Craft Adv for channel near Maui and Big Is.
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Sailing Report:

Monday   10/22
GOOD...with moderate+ NE Trades
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Diving Report:

Monday   10/22
Fair-good for select North shore zones and Fair-good for select deeper West shores. Poor for most south spots do to swell; good for 'inside reefs' and fair-good for 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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