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Vans Triple Crown

645am OBS Thursday Nov 15th

Cloudy morning with calm to light ENE Trades filling to moderate later. No advisories.

Easing Moderate NNW + tiny ENE trade and SSW swells. Call 596-SURF: 7a, 12, 3 & 5p recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Down & Dropping 13sec NNW. Surf is head to about Double overhead with near calm winds and smooth, Sunset Beach about 4-5' with fair shape. Pipe-OTW zone 3-4'; Laniakea 4-5' ooc.+, Ali'i Beach 2-3' occ 4' under clouds.
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West:

Down & Dropping 13sec NNW + trace of tiny SW. Makaha is a glassy 2-3' with a chance of higher sets with good form and smooth; lite offshores later with trades returning under cloudy skies.
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Town:

New Holding 14sec SSW. Surf is glassy and up to waist high or 2' but with long waits. Trades filling back in later. 2' sets from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers, Threes-Pops-Queens-Publics 0-2' or mostly thigh-waist high sets under cloudy skies.
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Diamond Head:

Up & Holding a small SSW. Surf is smooth but overall weak at 0-1 occ 2'...expect light side shores later today under cloudy skies.
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Sandy's:

Down & Holding the North wrap + a tiny Trade + SSW mix. Surf is semi-smooth at 1-2.5' from Full Pt. with some slammers in the shorebreak under clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and Holding N wrap + the tiny 8sec East trade swell. Makapu'u is 2-3' & smooth overall from the Middle to Keiki's...solid 3' but closing out under clouds.
Cholos 728×90 generic

Weather

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 89°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph NE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 86°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
23mph NE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 87°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 86°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Range:
5-7mph NE Trade
Increasing trades
Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Range:
10-20+mph NE Trade

North

Thursday
11/15

Primary

Dropping Slow 13s NNW
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10

Secondary

None  
Haw: 0
Face: 0
smooth

Friday
11/16

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Good
8' sets later
Saturday
11/17

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Rising 14s N
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Fair-Good side-offshore

Monday
11/19

Primary

Rising 16s NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

Dropping 12s N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Offshore

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West

Thursday
11/15

Primary

Dropping Slow 13s NNW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

Up & holding 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
smooth
Friday
11/16

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
Saturday
11/17

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-5
Face: 3-8

Secondary

Rising 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair-Good side-offshore
Sunday
11/18

Primary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+

Secondary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair-Good side-offshore
Monday
11/19

Primary

Rising 16s NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Offshore
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South

Thursday
11/15

Primary

Up & holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
glassy

Friday
11/16

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Holding 14s SSE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good

Saturday
11/17

Primary

Rising 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Holding 12s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good

Monday
11/19

Primary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good

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east

Thursday
11/15

Primary

Holding 11s N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Onshore

Friday
11/16

Primary

Holding 10s N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Rising 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Choppy

Saturday
11/17

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Monday
11/19

Primary

Holding 8s E
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

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Current Swells:

Thursday 11/15
Primary: Dropping Slow 13s NNW surf @3-6 
Secondary: Holding 11s N surf @1-3 
Third: Up & holding 14s SSW surf @1-2 
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Marine Warnings:

Thursday   11/15
None
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Sailing Report:

Thursday   11/15
Poor with calm to light ENE trades veering to Variable then seabreezes with Trades filling later
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Diving Report:

Thursday   11/15
Improving but still Isolated remnant Brown water all shores. Poor for North shores and fair for select deeper West shores + good for select south shore zones; fair for select 'inside reefs' and poor for most 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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