6am OBS, Tuesday, January 14th
Partly cloudy skies with scattered windward and mauka showers. Light to moderate ENE trades filling to moderate paces towards lunch. High Surf Advisory for North and West shores of Niihau-Oahu and North shores of Maui. Small Craft Advisory for Kauai waters, Oahu-Maui windward waters, and the Kaiwi channel.
Big Picture updated 1/12. Moderate to large NW. Small ENE trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Up & Holding 14 sec NW. Much cleaner, smoother, bordering on excellent conditions with well-groomed waves this morning due to a lighter side-offshore wind. Sunset 6-8'+; Rocky Pt 5-7'; Pipe 5-7'+ and spitting; Chuns 5-7'; Laniakea 5-7'; Ali'i Beach Park 4-6'. Few clouds.West:
Up & Holding 14 sec NW. Clean and nicely groomed surf early due to a light offshore wind, turning even lighter to variables after midday. Makaha is 3-5'. Scattered clouds.Town:
Holding trace south-hemi energy. Clean conditions but minimal surf. Waikiki reefs are 0-1/2'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 0-1'. Partly cloudy skies with passing showers.Diamond Head:
Dropping trade wrap. Much lighter winds this morning making for much cleaner conditions. Surf's 1-barely occ. 2' at takeoff. Partly cloudy skies with passing showers.Sandy's:
Dropping ENE trade wind swell wrap. Surf's fairly clean due to a light sideshore wind. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'+. Shorebreak is cleaner at 1-2' occ. +. Scattered to broken clouds.East Makapu'u:
Dropping 8 sec ENE trade wind swell. Bumpy conditions under a breezy onshore wind. Surf's 1-2'+ and focused towards the left side of the bay and the middle. Keikis is smaller at 1-2'. Scattered to broken clouds.Winds
10-20mph ENE Trade
5-15+mph ENE Trade
Lighter PM
5-7mph Variables to konas
5-7mph Variables to konas
5-15+mph NE Trade
North
Primary
Up & holding 14s NWHaw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent
Primary
Dropping 12s NWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
Rising early Evening 24s WNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary
Up & Rising 19s WNWHaw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
15-18' late afternoon
Primary
Up & dropping 16s NWHaw: 10-15+
Face: 15-25+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
West
Primary
Up & holding 14s NWHaw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Secondary
Holding 10s SSEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent
Primary
Dropping 12s NWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Rising 18s SSWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good
Primary
Dropping 12s NNWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Up & Rising 17s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary
Up & Rising 19s WNWHaw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Secondary
Up & holding 15s SSWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & dropping 16s NWHaw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good early , fair later
South
Primary
Holding 10s SSEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Rising 18s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Rising Nightime 18s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair
Primary
Up & Rising 17s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
3' later
Primary
Up & holding 15s SSWHaw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good early , fair later
Primary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
east
Primary
Dropping 8s ENEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
minor N wrap
Primary
Holding 9s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy
minor N wrap
Primary
Dropping 9s ENEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 8s ENEHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smoother early-mushier midday
Primary
Dropping 7s ENEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising Later 5s NEHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
slightly choppy
Current Swells:
Tuesday 01/14Primary: Up & holding 14s NW surf @6-8+
Secondary: Dropping 8s ENE surf @1-2+
Third: Holding 10s SSE surf @0-1
Marine Warnings:
Tuesday 01/14High Surf Advisory for North and West shores of Niihau-Oahu and North shores of Maui. Small Craft Advisory for Kauai surrounding waters, Oahu & Maui windward waters, and the Kaiwi channel.
Sailing Report:
Tuesday 01/14Fair to good with moderate ENE trades of 10-20mph.
Diving Report:
Tuesday 01/14North shores: POOR due to moderate to large surf. West shores: FAIR due to moderate surf. South shores: GOOD for most zones due to tiny surf and side-offshore trades. East shores: FAIR for most zones due to small surf and onshore chop.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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