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JJ Dolans

1pm OBS Friday 9/21 Pwrd by JJ Dolans

Partly cloudy day with light Trades filling in to moderate. Broken clouds for Windward/ Mauka. Small Craft Adv for channels of Maui and Big Is.

Average ENE, small South +Trace West (Mangkhut) + Call 596-SURF: 7a, 12, 3 & 5p recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Up and Holding 15sec WNW (former typhoon Manghut. Surf is smooth offshore 0-1' occ soft 2' from Sunset Pt. to Rocky Pt.. Pipe zone 0-1.5'; Laniakea 0-1' , Chuns 0-1 occ near 2' sets & Ali'i Beach flat-1.5' under scattered clouds.
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West:

Up and Holding the small WNW + holding South. Makaha is glassy flat-1' occ. soft 2' per 30 min under with mostly clear skies.
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Town:

Down & Dropping 13sec South. Surf is good side off at dawn. 1-2 occ 2.5' or shoulder high sets. From Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers , Threes-Pops-Queens under scattered clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Holding South. Surf is bumpy 1-2.5' with some decent walls under scattered clouds.
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Sandy's:

Holding mix of South and small wind swell. Surf has good sandbars. 2-3' maybe occ 4' out at Middle Peaks. 20 guys out with half photogs. 3' from Full Pt to Pipelittles but washing over. Plenty tubes into Gas Chambers under scattered clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 8-10 sec E trade swell. Makapu'u fun but bumpy 1-3' and breaking just outside the left rocks and Keiki side a little smaller, 1-2.5' with broken clouds.
Surf n Sea New 728 Aug 2018

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 92°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 92°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph E

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 92°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph ESE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph S

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 92°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph SSW

Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

Range:
5-10mph SE
veering seabreezes
Range:
5-10mph South
midday seabreeze
Range:
5-10mph South
seabreeze

North

Friday
09/21

Primary

Holding 15s WNW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Offshore

Saturday
09/22

Primary

Dropping 13s WNW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Sunday
09/23

Primary

Dropping 10s WNW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores

Monday
09/24

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
smooth

Tuesday
09/25

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Offshore

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West

Friday
09/21

Primary

Holding 15s WNW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Offshore
Saturday
09/22

Primary

Rising Slow 15s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 13s WNW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
clean
Sunday
09/23

Primary

Rising Slow 16s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 10s WNW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Good
Monday
09/24

Primary

Holding 16s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Diving , Paddling
Tuesday
09/25

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0

Secondary

Rising early Afternoon 18s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Offshore
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South

Friday
09/21

Primary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent

Saturday
09/22

Primary

Rising Slow 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
clean

Sunday
09/23

Primary

Rising Slow 16s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Dropping 11s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good

Monday
09/24

Primary

Holding 16s SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Diving , Paddling

Tuesday
09/25

Primary

Rising early Afternoon 18s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 16s SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good offshores

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east

Friday
09/21

Primary

Rising 10s E
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Saturday
09/22

Primary

Holding 9s E
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Sunday
09/23

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Onshore

Monday
09/24

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Tuesday
09/25

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

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Current Swells:

Friday 09/21
Primary: Rising 10s E surf @2-3 
Secondary: Dropping 13s SSW surf @1-2 occ + 
Third: Holding 15s WNW surf @1 occ 2 
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   09/21
small craft advisory channels of Maui and Big Is
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Sailing Report:

Friday   09/21
Fair to Good early with moderate paced ENE Trades.
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Diving Report:

Friday   09/21
Improving but still remnant Isolated Dirty Water Runoff: Fair-good for isolated North and West shores. Fair-good for isolated south and fair-good for isolated 'inside reefs' and fair for most 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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