645am OBS Monday Feb. 18th
Another chilly morning with light NE winds filling 5-15 mph. Veering to the SE later. Early scattered-broken clouds. High Surf Adv. for Windward shores + Small Craft Adv. due to large open ocean swell.
SNN BIG PICTURE UPDATE: Sunday 2/17. High NE and holding moderate NW + tiny fading SW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3 & 5 recap-forecast.

North Shore:
Down & Holding 11sec NE + Holding 14sec NW. Surf is 4-6' maybe off-n higher combo peak. It's poor side onshore. Jumbled, disorganized and sectiony. Plus, brown water runoff under mostly clouds.
West:
Down & Dropping small NW and mix of NE wrap. Makaha is clean offshore 2-4' with decent shape under partly cloudy skies for Day3, the 43rd Annual Buffalo Big Board Classic all Presidents Day!
Town:
Down & dropping the tiny 11sec SW. Surf is glassy offshore 0-1' occ. 1.5' (rare 2' sets) and fair-good form. Slow, weak and inconsistent from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens-Public's 0-1.5' under scattered clouds.
Diamond Head:
Down & dropping tiny SW. Surf is clean offshore 1-2'. Decent shape but lacking energy. Slow, cruisy sections allowing for 1 maybe 2 turns under scattered clouds.
Sandy's:
Down and holding NE wrap. Surf is 3-5' with light offshores and still cranking. Good form with top sets pumping from Full Pt ; Generals into sandbars with critical drops into big ramp sections w& heavy closeouts, esp. into Chambers under partly cloudy skies.
East Makapu'u:
Down and holding (warning level but only advisories posted) 11sec NE swell reaching 5-8' way outside on big lines down the middle w/ large sections funneling into the bay + strong rip current. Heavy inside shorebreak with powerful closeout sections through Keiki's side under broken clouds.Weather
Temp
min: 70°F
max: 85°F
Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph SE
Temp
min: 68°F
max: 83°F
Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph S
Temp
min: 69°F
max: 86°F
Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph WSW
Temp
min: 69°F
max: 84°F
Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph NNE
Temp
min: 69°F
max: 84°F
Clear

Wind:
8mph NNE
5-15mph ENE Trade
5-7mph Variables
5-7mph Variables
5-10mph NE Trade
5-15+mph NE Trade
North
Primary

Haw: 3-6 occ +
Face: 5-10 occ +
Secondary

Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
poor
Disorganized; crossed up, cloudy
Primary

Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary

Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Fair to good
Variables
Primary

Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary

Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Smoother early-mushier midday
Variables
Primary

Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary

Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Smoother early-mushier midday
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
West
Primary

Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
poor
Primary

Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smoother early-mushier midday
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Smoother early-mushier midday
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
South
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Smooth early-mushy later
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
east
Primary

Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary

Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary

Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary

Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary

Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Onshore

Current Swells:
Monday 02/18Primary: Dropping 14s NW surf @3-6 occ +
Secondary: Dropping 11s NE surf @5-8
Third: Rising 15s SW surf @1 occ 2

Marine Warnings:
Monday 02/18High Surf Adv Windward shores + Small Craft Adv due to large open ocean swell. Plus tons of brown water.

Sailing Report:
Monday 02/18Fair with light ENE winds veering to variable tonight

Diving Report:
Monday 02/18Bad for any zones with Brown Water. Still Brown Water run-off. No Go: North shores and fair for deeper West shores + fair-good for select south shores; poor for 'inside reefs' and very poor 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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