Big Picture

 SNN BIG PICTURE: Wednesday 6.24.20

NPAC 

JET-STREAM: Our large-scale upper-level Wind River has been above average for the end of June. There’s been enough wind and meridional (longitudinal flows) to keep things rolling down at the ocean surface well into June.

Recent-Current:  Just micro NE wrap at select reefs but today sees a bump of tiny NW (2’ if lucky later Wednesday). There have been soft Lows tracking east from Japan since last weekend…seas only 18’ tho’ with minor gales.

Next: One low in the above combo will do much better for us by Friday.  It rebuilds off the Kurils Sunday and spawns off a SE tracking Low the 21^{st through} the 22^nd about 1500miles NW of us Sunday. By Tuesday the system touches the dateline. Seas are only 20’ but the track is good for a captured fetch and decent proximity to the Islands. The weak Low lasts surprisingly long and begins to move East and broaden on our side of the dateline Wednesday as it then dies. The long journey will result in 2 back to back bumps from the same system. Watch for some 1-2’ NW surf at 12sec Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as it fades most the day. The second bump comes from the near proximity of the final stages of it’s East then ESE Track nosing to within 900 miles away. WW3 wants to give up some 2.5’ maybe isolated 3’ sets at dawn Friday the 26th ramping to  2-3+’ surf at 13sec by midday and plenty 3’ sets at 11sec Saturday. A good late June run.

Next: A Low under 1500 miles NNW forms Friday the 26^th. It’s small and weak and it has a bad NNE track toward the East Aleutians. Tuesday the 30^th might see a thigh-high NNW set with 9 sec. Not sure why we’re mentioning it. 😊

Last: Some longer 10 sec period NE to ENE swell should hit solid 3’ for windward reefs and beaches by Thursday, July 2^nd from a Low off California spinning off some fetch. It won’t last long. The NS’s focal spots will see 2’ average.

SPAC:

The Jet Stream has plenty of energy with both the N and South branches seeing some slivers of 170kt. The Jet’s Energy and ‘meridional’ curves (N to S or latitudinal bends vs West to East or zonal flows) have continued. This means more SSW to Souths to come for the rest of June and into early July! It’s been a very good Summer so far.

Recent-Current: Today we see 2.5’ or shoulder high sets on the slowly declining South which has lasted for 5 days! (it peaked at isolated 5’). Trade have been the average. Oh, there’s also a 16 sec SW swell that may reach 2’ Thursday-Friday. The straight South swell will fade thru Friday and then Saturday we take off again with the onset of an advisory SSW! The peak will be Sunday-Monday.

Next: A solid run of SSW. A large low has some 45kt winds SE of New Z and seas 30’; this first one has a zonal flow but enough fetch on it’s west flank to produce some long periods and overhead surf. Then, it’s followed up by an even bigger, better NE tracking storm with over 38’ seas Sunday the 21^st. With projected 3′ even 4’ swell at 16-18 sec, we could get to see some 3-5’ (even isolated 6′ plus at the swell magnets) Sunday-Monday the 28-29th!

Last: A nice decent sized Low with 20-30’ seas tracks ENE from the off the SE side of New Zealand today (24^th). By Thursday it weakens and veering more easterly but luckily the early stages will deliver some 2-3’ plus SSW filling in Wednesday the 1^st and lasting through Friday (the onset phases take up to 24 hours due to the 4-5000 distance traveled).

Windward: The ENE surf’s been below average (2’ for days), but all in all, over the past several weeks it’s been average 1-3’; all thanks to our local and upstream Trades doing their summer thing. There will the typical fluctuations over the coming 10 days with the exception of a NE to ENE swell from a Low off California early July. We’ll keep you posted here and on the SNN 5-10-day forecast. (10 day forecast for premium membership is just 5 bucks a month, including multi Cam views). Mahalo for any support!

The EAST Pac Tropics:  came alive recently with Tropical Depression 3-E which is about 1500 miles to our ESE and is moving west at 7mph with 35mph winds (Wed Am). We may get some small ESE swell early July but it’s too early for specifics or confidence.

The West Pac Tropics: None for the upcoming week.

Long-range views are seldom 20/20. Prep for some adjustments.

GO HERE FOR DEEPER EL NINO DETAILS

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Surf Climatology HERE

NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories (first number) & Warnings (second number).

All surf height observations & forecasts are for full ‘face’ surf height, or ‘trough to the crest’ of the wave.

North-Facing Shores 15 Feet and 25 Feet

West-Facing Shores – Remaining Islands 12 Feet and 20 Feet

West-Facing Shores – Big Island 8 Feet and 12 Feet

South-Facing Shores -(Advisory) 8 Feet and (warning) 15 Feet

East-Facing Shores – 8 Feet and 15 Feet

Get the latest Central Pac Hawaii HERE

For the SNN Buoys ‘per shore’ displayed   HERE

Note: Spectral density graph in the SNN Buoy Page HERE can show ‘slivers’ of forerunners that initial text readings of new swells which often do not ‘show’ till later on written/text buoy updates. Also, note the vertical graph is not ‘wave height’ rather its a measure of wave energy in hertz (frequency or cycles/sec) for the whole ‘band’ (the distribution of power/period in the total wave energy field/spectrum).

Links: Get the latest on the Eastern North Pac GO HERE 

For more on the West Pac Typhoons GO HERE

Common Terms:  Split Jetstream

Blocking ridge

Short-wave tough