Big PictureBIG PICTURE Wednesday 3/22/17
The Jet is energetic extending off Japan to just beyond the dateline (winds up to 210). She weakens this weekend but slowly extends beyond out Longitude. Also the large upper air current is overall low in latitude for this time at 25n-40n.
By Monday the 27th it’s consolidated off Japan again and by Tuesday its just out our side of the 180 dateline. A good sign for 2 weeks out.
Recently, a super fun WNW hit 6’ solid Monday with fair-good side offshore fresh trades. It faded to 4’ Tuesday but was still really fun offshores for 1st day of spring. A broad big Low with some hurricane force pockets was centered near Kamchatka last Friday; she spun almost in place (occluded) for about a day. The almost 2400 mile distance limited the surf heights due to swell decay (~50% loss per 1000 miles).
The storm that spawned the first event stalled and spun some new fetch for us March 17th just over 2000 miles off. it weakened Monday but not before generated some 5' deep water WNW @ 14 sec. it's hitting 3-5' mostly with top sets top spots reaching 6'. It's slowly fading alittle tonight into Saturday when the REAL DEAL kicks in.
A winter caliber east tracking Low is progressing off Japan Tuesday (Spring) with winds up to 50kts. We’re expecting a build late Saturday with 20+ sec forerunners, peaking Sunday at 16sec w/t LARGE WNW surf big enough to crack select outer reefs at 15’; this meets the High Surf Warning Criteria (25’ crest to trough). Most spots will wash out. Sunset will have some ballzy takers for those 12’ inbetweeners. This Wintery episode drops slowly thru the day as it laughs at spring averages. Monday should still be above advrys at 8-10’.
Last in the lineup: A decent storm following up in the wake of the above (now NE tracking) Low shows up this Sunday the 26th. This new 40kt storm is on the dateline with a very slow track and builds some 25+ seas but much of them pointing to our NE. Still it should be enough for a 6-8’+ NW Friday March 31st.
A BIG high has been spinning over NZL
The Jet down under has been zonal, too (west to east) but things are looking up as a deepening Jet under NZL is lengthening with a ENE tilt. By Friday it’s weaker with 120 kts but points NNE right up the NZL coast where we like it. The Jet does look to be ‘steering’ a couple nice Lows our way to kick off the first official run of SSW in Spring.
Recently, it’s been tiny 0-1.5’ background SSW and some West wrap to 2’ Monday. Super nice offshores tho’ it’s really small (there have been spotty 2’ sets here and there).
Up next we get a warm up around Monday the 27th with some 15 sec S-SSW. But the storm only expected to build 1.5’ of swell by the time it gets here. This means only waist/shoulder high on average into Tuesday as it fades. The fetch 1000 miles east of NZL was pointing to SE of us (off to the Americas) so it wasn’t maximized.
Up next, the main one. Wed the 27th has a low SE of NZL with a more typical NE track. It gets supported by another faster moving Low and they merge Thursday/Friday the 24th. Seas hit 28’ and some following fetch is predicted to bring 16 sec SSW surf up to 3’ Thursday 23 and peak Friday at just above 3’ or 1’ overhead at focal reefs. Even Saturday should have a few sets this size at 14sec.
Last in the lineup…. An ENE tracking Low in the same region 600+ miles SE of NZL is on the charts Monday the 27th. If all goes well, we’ll see some 3’ surf from the SSW Tuesday April 4th veering to South by Wednesday as it moves under French Polynesia.
Below average with minimal 2’ with occas NE pulses. Nothing significant is on the models yet.
So far they’re nothing forecast on Hawaii for the next week.
Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4+ local) 15 Feet (8’ local)
Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)