Big Picture
SNN BIG PICTURE:
Sunday, October 3rd – Saturday, October 9th
Local Weather Outlook –
Trades gradually pick up strength into mid-week before becoming strong by next weekend….
Winds – As the pressure gradient in our region tightens over the next 4-5 days trades will accelerate from the present light-moderate variety to moderate-strong levels by Wednesday. Later in the week, a trade wind surge, currently developing out of a strong subtropical high to our north, will swing into the state on Thursday and Friday, with strong trades (15-30mph) through the weekend.
Rain – A mid-level trough passing over us last night and this morning led to heavier than usual showers this morning. This trough is modeled to move east of the state by tomorrow with a more typical trade wind shower pattern forecast until late week. The trade wind surge will likely bring a threat of heavier showers for Friday and Saturday.
Surf Outlook –
North and West Shores: Underwhelming for October, but nevertheless surf stays fun size and playful most of the week…
The North Pacific is having a bit of trouble finding its early season stride. Nevertheless, a few WNW and N swells are forecast to creep in over the coming days.
On the 29th, a small low formed south of Kamchatka with a fetch of 40mph winds. This low tracked NE, fusing with a low in the Bering Sea on the 30th, while maintaining similarly paced winds. The low fizzled on the 1st. Surf from this source will arrive out of the NW tonight and build from the NNW tomorrow. Nothing stellar, but could produce some 2-3+ surf at top spots by evening tomorrow, hanging on at 1-2’ occ. 3’ most of Tuesday. A better swell is scheduled to arrive Monday night.
Tropical cyclone Mindulle raced from Guam to Japan between the 24th and the 30th, spending most of its time as a category 4 system. On the 1st, Mindulle went extratropical and recurved into the mid-latitudes, pushing out winds of 40-50mph as it tracked along the Kuril Islands and into the Bering Sea on the 2nd and 3rd. Surf from this system will begin to show Tuesday from a hard west angle, possibly reaching 2-4+ by end of day. Wednesday should maintain 2-4’ most of the day before the swell dies quickly Thursday and Friday.
Unfortunately, not much is forecast to happen in the western North Pacific from today on out 4 days, so north shore surf will be mostly consigned to mid period NE energy out of the approaching trade wind surge Friday through the weekend.
South Shores: Small southerly energy and traces of west through Wednesday, then SOLID south fills in, peaking over the weekend…
A typical late season pattern persisted in the South Pac. between the 25th and the 28th with smatterings of 40mph fetches here and there. This will ensure a slow start to the week with mostly 1-2+ surf locally through Thursday morning.
On the 29th, a solid fetch began brewing southwest of New Zealand, building into the 40+mph range on the 30th. On the 1st, the low associated with this fetch deepened SSE of NZ with regions of the large fetch strengthening to 55mph. The fetch maintained its strength on the 2nd, angling towards the Hawaiian Islands. Today, the fetch remains large, well oriented towards the islands, and nearly the same strength. It is forecast to shrink but maintain strength tomorrow, before dying out on Tuesday.
Long period forerunners of this swell may begin to show Thursday afternoon, but will really grow Thursday night, becoming 3-4’ occ. 5 on Friday. The swell peaks on Saturday around 4-6’ with some 7′ possibly even 8′ at top deep water reefs…before gradually scaling back into Monday of next week. As long as the local winds behave, this could be one of the best South swells this season.
East Shores: Typical background trade swell until the trade wind surge arrives Thursday. Moderate to large surf Friday through the weekend, but rough conditions.
Light to moderate trades are keeping the trade wind swell in the tiny to small, short period variety at present. The trade swell should increase slightly early this week as the trades pick up locally. As the trade wind surge arrives late week, the swell will pick up substantially out of the NE, possibly producing some occ. 5’ waves at select spots over the weekend. Unfortunately, local winds will be strong at this time making conditions rough and challenging.
Tropics: Nothing on the charts for this 7-day outlook.
Posted: 2pm, October 3
Surf Climatology HERE
