Big Picture
SNN BIG PICTURE:
Saturday, July 17th – Saturday, July 24th
Local Weather Outlook –
Moderate-fresh-strong trades for the first half of the week with fresh paces Tuesday onward….
A seasonally steady and strong sub-tropical high to our northeast has ENE trades blowing at moderate+ paces today. In the 2nd half of the week, whatever is remaining of current tropical systems Felicia and Guillermo is forecast to influence island weather. Felicia is in the lead and is forecast to skirt south of the islands Thursday, thereby steepening the pressure gradient over the islands and accelerating the trades to strong paces beginning late Thursday and continuing through Friday. Guillermo is set to take a higher track as of now and could impact the islands directly on Saturday with a continuation of strong easterly winds and possibly some (much needed) rain.
Surf Outlook –
North and West Shores: Summertime flatness continues…
Nothing other than similar trade wind wrap is expected through the period.
Also, the current track of Guillermo would send the islands an enhancement of easterly swell, which would unlikely improve north shore surf heights.
The main point of interest in the NW Pacific this week will be the development of tropical depression nine, currently SE of Okinawa. In the best example of weather modification by some shadowy world government that I have seen in some time (sarcasm), tropical depression #9 is likely to spin up into a healthy typhoon tomorrow just south of Japan resulting in a fetch which will send a solid swell to south facing shores of the land of the rising sun next week. This swell will reach Japan before the Olympics surfing window; however, models have another low-pressure system setting up to the east of the typhoon on Wednesday and Thursday and then tracking toward central Japan Friday through Sunday, likely sending solid swells to Chiba Prefecture just in time for the start of the competition window. Go figure.
South Shores: Inconsistent, small/moderate SSW this weekend, then background 1-2’+ kine waves for the rest of the work week…
The anticipated SSW swell finally filled in last night Friday the 16th with some, albeit inconsistent, 1-2-3’ surf for south shores. The beginning of a slow, steady decline is expected tomorrow. The fetch which created the current swell lost its organization fairly quickly, although retaining a wide swath of 35+mph winds, after its peak on the 9th of the month. By the 11th, most of the remaining energy was pointed at the Americas. Therefore, expect remnants of this swell to continue into mid-week, but generally only in the 1-2’ range.
The 12th and 13th were mostly zonal in the South Pacific. It was not until the 14th that a new and promising system developed SSE of New Zealand. This system carried largely 40mph winds on the 14th and close to 50mph on the 15th as it tracked east, exiting our swell window on the 16th. Due to the rapid tracking of this system, it wasn’t a stellar wave maker, but will be enough to boost local surf back into the 1-2’ occ. 3’ range beginning Thursday and continuing Friday.
East Shores: Steady average to above average trade swell through mid-week, then possible boost from Guillermo Friday/Saturday.
As stated in the weather outlook section, moderate trades are expected to continue all week, thus sustaining the current trade swell of 2-3’+ through the period, possibly increasing slightly to 4’ mid-week. In the longer range, depending on the eventual track and lifecycle of Guillermo, east shores could see a long period boost in swell, possibly into the 3-5’+ range next weekend. More on that as it develops.
Posted: 1pm, July 17
Surf Climatology HERE
