SNN BIG PICTURE: Thursday 5/13/21
Quick Weather–
Gorgeous, just typical windward-mauka cloud build up. High pressure 1300 miles NNE of us maintains moderate to fresh NE Trades through Monday. Small Craft Adv tagging along for channels: Moloka’i to Big Island waters.
Surf Outlook –
North & West Shores:
From this week out 2 weeks we may have 4 tiny to moderate WNW-NNW events! This is a good thing for May. Today it’s down 0-1.5’ but rare left-over sets near 2’ are still to be found. Another Small NW might pops Friday.
So, we just had some 2’ maybe 2.5’ NNW surf Tuesday-Wednesday from a tiny east bound low off the Kurils last Saturday-Monday…this one’s down to 1.5’ now. The next micro 11sec NW reinforcement ‘may’ come Friday at a weak 2’. It’s likely to be thigh high max. Mixed modeling.
Next up we see a better shot of 13 sec NNW start to arrive late Sunday and peak Monday at 2-3’+. Source: a gale storm showed up late season up near the central to western Aleutians today Thursday. The fetch, tho’ about 1500 miles away and short lived was fairly broad so that’s why we’re calling for some just overhead sets at focal reefs. It’ll be 3’ or less Tuesday.
Next in line is a WNW! A relatively solid Low moves east off Japan this weekend with some 45kts. Strongest winds will be Saturday with Sunday seeing just max gales when she reached the dateline. Let’s go with 2-3+’ WNW sets Wednesday the 19th as the swell fills in all morning and peaks the second half of the day. 3’ surf should linger into Thursday.
Long range shows mixed output for a couple small NNW events the weekend of the 22nd with more for that work week Monday the 24th. Let’s wait and watch.
South Shores:
The Jet is and has been strong with mostly zonal flows but there’s been enough meridional loops to keep Low pressures pumping up SSW swells for weeks. Nothing at advisory levels but still good consistency and overlapping swell.
One such Low with 30-35’ seas was on the charts last Wednesday in the prime zone SE of New Z. it’s track was ENE and could have been better but we still are seeing long period, long lines of just overhead sets today Thursday into Friday. There was a complex area of Low pressure behind the main storm which will add swell thanks to the already agitated seas. So, this one will last a few days.
There was a final push from an NNE bound 40kt low that had a captured fetch Friday-Saturday then the storm intensified with 55kts Sunday to our South. Some of this energy passes SE of us. Still expect long lasting head high or solid 3′ South to finish off the series into Sunday fading Monday onward.
Next, Monday the 10th there were a couple large storms with some 55kts just under New Z to further SE but their tracks were zonal meaning west to east…this limits the fetch length and thus swell growth. Back ground 2’ SSW surf is expected; it will overlap and be below the surf from the prior Lows but with longer periods.
More very zonal fetches set up Wednesday the 12th and storms are steered along within it. So, surf for us will go into a relative quite period from Wednesday the 19th-Wed. the 26th. There are some complex Low pressures SE of New Z by the 18th…that’s a little too far out for claiming storms of this size and caliber.
East Shores:
Fun average choppy 3’ wind swell for days and days for Makapu’u -and all east to NE-SE exposures- thanks to long lasting fresh NE tilted Trades. They may ease up Monday the 17th and smaller surf will follow. May looks like it’s moderate to fresh 15-25mph Trade average will continue for a couple weeks.
Surf Climatology HERE
