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Big Picture

SNN BIG PICTURE:

Friday 4/3/20

NPAC

JET-STREAM: A slightly unusual set up for our upper large airflow: Narrow and Weak off Japan pointing NNE up into the Bering Sea. With a cut off Jet circulating just to our NE (causing the front, it’s weather, lite S winds and NNW swell for the weekend. There’s a persistent jet settled over the Islands for the long haul. By Monday the cut off lifts and dissipates with plenty High pressuring for the central and east Pac.  By Thursday there’s some decent energy with 170kts off Japan. Let’s see if this spawns off a surface low for the weekend of the 11th. .

Recent-Current:

We’ve had a small but fun WNW from a distance source off N Japan end of March and it’s been fading the past few days…to barely occ 2’ here and there. Conditions are just perfect though with the lite SE straight offshores.

First:

We’ll be getting a nice NNW this weekend from an occluded Low about 1200 miles NNW of Kauai. We see a weakened our pressure gradient from the surface trough just NW thus the lite SE wind flow. So, it’s going to be perfect. The GFS have predicting with a 12-hour delay recently while the European weather models have been more accurate. Let’s go with an increase from the NNW late Saturday morning and rising all day peaking at 4-6’+ late in the day. The event will still be solid Sunday but easing with 3-5’+ later in the day. Lite SW Kona’s could be an issue later in the morning.

Next:

Monday the 6th will see long 18 sec period forerunners and 4’ NW surf late in the day and maybe a few 3-5’ sets Tuesday. The source is a beefy Low (some 50’ seas!) tracking NE from just off N. Japan last Thursday-Saturday.

Last:

The 1st nearby Low -above- is predicted to rebuild Sunday 900 miles NNW as it spins in place before lifting N. Much of the fetch -west flank- still seems to point a good percentage off to our West.  WW3 wants to peg this event at 3-5’ plus Wednesday-Thursday as it overlaps with the long period NW Tuesday-Wed. Winds Tuesday may be lite NW to westerlies. So, conditions sketchy…best bet is early. By Friday the 10th short period surf will be just 2-4’.

 

SPAC

The Jet’s not producing much the up coming 7-day model runs. There’s an NNE to straight North meridional flow with 180kts this Sunday into the work week but it doesn’t spawn anything significant for us. Extreme N or S tilts in the Jet tend to disallow the spinning at the surface needed to spawn Low pressures. The good news is a huge NE flow right up the Taz Sea is projected Friday the 10th. Read below.

Recent-Current:

Rare Epic surf this past work week…well above average and mostly a 14sec SSE hitting 3’ but even up to 4’ with great early AM’s…it’s also been packed with only windows of low crowds. Surf’s been mushing out too pretty early due to SE winds. This swell will be dropping over the weekend. This all came from a broad low to the SSE of Tahiti March 23-27th.

Next:

A big Low with a far under Tahiti with 45-55kts tracking East the last few days of March will get us some 15 sec S to SSE surf filling all day Monday the 6th of up to 3’ by Tuesday the 7th. Some of this is sideband swell (dispersion) with most swell sent to the Americas. \

We go quiet for quite awhile then…

Last:

Friday the 10th: A beefy Low deep under Tasmania tracks up into it. WW3 shows a solid storm for a solid SW for Fiji (8-12’ plus around the 13-16th) and a 2-3’ event for us filling Saturday the 18th and peaking -iffy- 4’ Sunday-Monday. It’s a long shot but we’re going for it.

Windward:

The ENE surf’s been average a lot over the past week 1-2’ with a few marginal 3’). Conditions are been and will cont. to be good with the lite SE flows. Watch for this to hold well into next week.

The EAST Pac Tropics:  None for the upcoming week.

The West Pac Tropics: None for the upcoming week.

Long-range views are seldom 20/20. Prep for some adjustments.

 

 

GO HERE FOR DEEPER EL NINO DETAILS

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Surf Climatology HERE

NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories (first number) & Warnings (second number).

All surf height observations & forecasts are for full ‘face’ surf height, or ‘trough to the crest’ of the wave.

North-Facing Shores 15 Feet and 25 Feet

West-Facing Shores – Remaining Islands 12 Feet and 20 Feet

West-Facing Shores – Big Island 8 Feet and 12 Feet

South-Facing Shores -(Advisory) 8 Feet and (warning) 15 Feet

East-Facing Shores – 8 Feet and 15 Feet

Get the latest Central Pac Hawaii HERE

For the SNN Buoys ‘per shore’ displayed   HERE

Note: Spectral density graph in the SNN Buoy Page HERE can show ‘slivers’ of forerunners that initial text readings of new swells which often do not ‘show’ till later on written/text buoy updates. Also, note the vertical graph is not ‘wave height’ rather its a measure of wave energy in hertz (frequency or cycles/sec) for the whole ‘band’ (the distribution of power/period in the total wave energy field/spectrum).

Links: Get the latest on the Eastern North Pac GO HERE 

For more on the West Pac Typhoons GO HERE

Common Terms:  Split Jetstream

Blocking ridge

Short-wave tough

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