Big Picture
SNN BIG PICTURE: Sunday 1/13/18.
NPAC
JETSTREAM: It’s a nice continuation of a Wintery Jetstream (winds real decent: 160-190kts, long and consolidated off Japan with occasional troughs (about one per week).
Currently, it noses east beyond our Latitude before shifting ENE into the Gulf as it weakens and disperses. A break in the Jet drifts east from about Tuesday-Friday, consolidating and elongating once again off Japan; a good signal that things should continue as they’ve been.
We’ve had an average large to XL every 10-15 days with a few significant breaks in between.
Jetstream: River of wind above 30,000ft flowing west to east circling earth. It has major impacts on climate, weather, and airmass (Lows and Highs) which help form and steer storms that bring our waves.
Recent-Current: We’re on the decline from a solid 12-18’ occ 20’ NW which had good conditions thanks to light trades mixing with seabreezes.
The source was from Wednesday the 9thwhen an eastbound Low right off Japan grew; The Low pressure bombed or dropped and intensified quickly. Thursday morning up to Hurricane force winds created 40-50’ seas; It weakening and lifting NE Friday into the weekend. This was one reason why we had a downgrade and several hour delay. Models originally fantasized a peak swell of 18’ at 20 sec late Saturday into the night of the 12th with surf peaking 15-25’ even isolated 30’ in the afternoon. We still had respectable 20’ sets here and there. Today, Sunday still had outer reefs, Waimea 12-18’ (a few early).
Next: The good news is this Beef Cake Low has 2 siblings on its heels. The first Low pulses Saturday with some 25-35’ seas near the dateline with it’s 2nd Low Sunday both with an east track and a short life span. Still, thanks to proximity and decent seas Models claim a push of 10-12+’ NW surf at 16 sec with some higher sets outside reefs late Tuesday and WNW of 8-12′ Wednesday (forerunners to be 18 sec hitting Tuesday morning). Surf will still be pumping up to 6-10’ Thursday early. Winds will be interesting with light southerly flows and some higher SSW winds later Thursday due to a front; smaller shorter period NW storm surf with cool N winds Friday are coming, post the frontal passage.
Next: We go quiet for a few days on the surf production line from Tuesday-Friday. Some soft Lows pop up off the Kurils and some storminess shows up to our NE but nothing worth writing home about until Saturday the 19th. This is when a compact Low pops toward the dateline as it builds crossing east over to our side with some 30-35’ seas about 1000 miles to our NW. It intensifies creating up to 45’ seas Sunday but the track is fast to the NE. Currently, WW3 fantasizes a 15 sec NW building all day Monday with south winds…we begin the AM with 4-7’ into a mid-afternoon peak of 6-10’ at focal reefs. This episode is expected to drop 8’ Tuesday the 22nd when trades return.
Last: The second phase of the storm, when it began to deepen and track NE Sunday-Monday, garnered a respectable fetch on it’s SW flank. Models suggest a back to back building Tuesday afternoon with some 16sec surf hitting 5 or 6’ and building all night. Wed. the 23rd should see some solid 8-10’ surf at 14 sec.
Longshot: WW3 fantasize a broad big Low on the charts Tuesday-Thursday tracking fast eastward to our side of the dateline. There’s another on its heels about the same size and track. If this all plays it’ll be quite a run warning level surf. As of today, models peg it at 15’ 20 sec swell midday Thursday which is likely running hot hot hot. But a heads up is appropriate. The general trend is ‘cranking’.
January keeps up its fine reputation.
SPAC:
The Jetstream continues with ‘above average’ meridional flows for this time of year. Its mostly weak up to 140kts which means weak winds/energy transferred at the surface. We do see more brief periods up to 140kts this weekemd with some NE bound flow…it’s all gone today Sunday13. The Jet is very weak and zonal thru Friday the 18th. Then we get some good energy in the Taz but it’s a bit far out in the forecast to claim.
Recent/current: Back ground SW this past week with 2’ sets but long lulls. Winds have been and are super light. Plenty glass in the dawn patrols.
West wrap Sunday was nil to very minor with 2′ occ 2.5′ peaking into some spots. At least the cloud build up kept winds down. Super nice . Some areas further WSW did catch some 3’ maybe plus.
Next: Sunday-Tuesday a Low deep in the Taz tracked East with some 30-35’ seas mostly out of our window. It got to the SE of New Z early last work week the 7-8th with some 30’ seas. We hope for some 18sec forerunners Monday but we can’t hope for much height…1/2 a foot. By Tuesday the swells should be built to 1’ at 16 sec from about 205. Lets go with waist high SSW from Tuesday-Wednesday. By Thursday it will be smaller and gone by Friday.
Next: A marginal gale to the SE of New Z Friday the 11th might bring us up to 2’ over the weekend. It’ll grow slow Saturday with 15 sec forerunners and reach 2’ or waist high Sunday fading fast Monday.
Jan 7th. ‘El Niño Watch’ in affect.
This is the Latest ENSO Alert System Status: The same as it was in Dec.
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.
* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific.
El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance)
