PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 2 feet through Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be flat to 2 feet through Friday. Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet today, rising to 2 to 4 feet on Friday. Surf along north facing shores will be flat to 2 feet through Friday.

Outlook

Outlook through Thursday June 28: Surf will continue to gradually build through the weekend along east facing shores as the trades strengthen. Small surf will continue elsewhere with no significant swells anticipated through the weekend. Overlapping long-period south swells are expected next week with the first swell expected to arrive around Tuesday. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
06/20
2VRB912SAME9-13EUP
THU
06/21
4E512UPLOW11-16EUP
FRI
06/22
6E624UPLOW13-19EUP
SAT
06/23
7E735UPLOW17-21EUP
SUN
06/24
8E846UPLOW18-23ESAME
MON
06/25
8E846DOWNLOW17-21EDOWN
2SE1224UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. Building trade windswell into the weekend. DETAILED:. Mid Wednesday on has 2 feet at 9 seconds from both WNW and NE, which manifests into mostly flat conditions with tiny breakers for a few select spots. Summery conditions are expected to hold through the period. Mid Wednesday on has flat to tiny breakers from the NE. Low conditions are predicted to continue on Thursday. High pressure moving east along 40N from the Date Line is expected to trend local and upstream trades up Thursday into Saturday to a maximum on Sunday within fresh to strong. Breakers from windswell out of 60 to 90 degrees should build to near the average by Saturday and hold above average Sunday into Monday. Mid Wednesday on has a south side minimum for the last day of Spring. Well below average conditions are expected to continue for the first few days of Summer. Refraction of easterly windswell should top the heights over the weekend. A strong high pressure in the SE Pacific aimed strong SE trades at Hawaii over a large fetch 6/17-20. The direction within 110-140 degrees is mostly shadowed on Oahu by Hawaiian islands to the ESE. Small breakers are possible starting Monday for select exposures. This source should hold 6/26-30. , the week-long ridge of mid latitude high pressure last week gave way to troughing to the E to SE of New Zealand starting 6/17. This change in pattern is expected to deliver overlapping events next week. Gales behind a north-moving front due south of Hawaii within 40-60S 6/18-20 should have forerunners arriving 6/26 from 180-190 degrees. This event should peak 6/27 near to a notch above the summer average as a new event arrives. A much stronger and broader fetch of severe gale to storm-force winds south of 50S within 155-180W became better aimed equatorward late 6/19 into 6/20. Models show it slowly moving east near the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window as it weakens 6/21-22. The wide, long fetch should allow above average surf locally, with forerunners 6/27 and peaking 6/28 from 180-190 degrees. It should drop to average levels by 6/30. No surf is expected from the mid latitudes of the north Pacific 6/26-30. Trade windswell from 60-90 degrees is predicted to hold near to above average 6/26-30. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, June 22. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

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NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

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