SURFBOARD FACTORY HAWAII FEB 2019 GENERIC LONG

PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along south facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today, lowering to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Tuesday. Surf along north facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Tuesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 3 feet or less through Tuesday.

Outlook

Outlook through Monday June 24: The current south swell will continue to decline, but will be affected by a smaller south-southwest Tuesday into Wednesday. The current northwest swell will also be on the decline, but may see a small reinforcement out of the northwest Tuesday. Surf along east facing shores will begin to increase to the summertime average early this week. A small short-period northeast swell is possible next weekend. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
05/24
3NW1135UP10-15EUP
6E835UP
3SSW1446DOWN
SAT
05/25
4NW1257UPHIGH10-15ESAME
6E946SAMEMED
3SSW1235DOWNLOW
2SSW2046UPLOW
SUN
05/26
4NW1257DOWNMED9-13ESAME
4E935DOWNLOW
4SSW1668UPLOW
MON
05/27
3NNW1135DOWNLOW9-13ESAME
4E712DOWNLOW
4SSW1568DOWNLOW
TUE
05/28
3NNW1135UPLOW9-13ESAME
4E712SAMELOW
3SSW1235DOWNLOW
2S1636UPLOW
WED
05/29
3NNW1035DOWNLOW10-15EUP
4E712SAMELOW
3S1446SAMELOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. Active surf pattern over the holiday weekend. DETAILED:. Mid Friday on has rising breakers from 300-320 degrees. Heights should trend up into Saturday. A low pressure occluded near 40N, 175W Tuesday 5/21. The pattern remained stationary into Friday 5/24. Models show this Aleutian low system to have a slow northward shift 5/25 with reinforcement short-waves spaced a few days apart feeding the upper level gyre to keep continued surface low pressure systems with winds aimed at Hawaii. This should make for a long-lived spell of NW to NNW surf locally . PacIOOS/CDIP Waimea, Oahu buoy Friday 5/24 mid day shows the new swell is filling in. The event should climb into Saturday above the May average from 300-320 degrees and hold about the same into Sunday. Heights should slowly trend down late Sunday into Monday to near the average from 300-330 degrees. The first reinforcement surface low pressure area is modelled to have strong breezes with pockets to near gales near 1200 nm away 5/25-26 to the NNW of Hawaii north of 40N south of the Aleutians. This should keep near average surf locally Tuesday into Wednesday from 315-330 degrees. Mid Friday on has rising breakers from 70-90 degrees to near the trade windswell average. Heights should trend up into Saturday from the same direction. Surface high pressure has been anchored near 40N, 140W this week. A long, wide fetch of fresh to strong trades set up within 20-25N, 140-155W. Wave Watch III predicts this upstream windswell source to peak locally on Saturday with breakers above average. The Friday morning 5/24 ASCAT showed the trades in the fetch to the east of Hawaii on a weakening trend. Models show further weakening into the weekend. Breakers from E windswell should taper down Sunday to below average by late in the day. Low breakers should be the rule for Monday into Wednesday. Mid Friday on has breakers from 180-200 degrees at levels above the seasonal average. Heights should trend down Saturday morning then trend up again in the afternoon. The New Zealand south swell source area was active 5/14-20 within 35-70S, 160E to 160W. This places the local swell out of 180-200 degrees. A sequence of fetches filled the area and have been keeping active surf this week with overlapping events. The last one is expected to be the largest locally peaking Sunday into Monday. This final source over the 180-200 degree band had a long, wide fetch 5/17-20 with severe gales growing seas to near 30 feet. Those were weaker winds relative to the Mothers Day swell source near the same area, so this event is expected to be a notch lower locally. As with the Mothers Day event, and as is most often the case from the New Zealand source region, highest aim of seas and swell were off to the SE of Hawaii. This places higher error bars on the local surf estimate. The PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy registered the rise of this event with 6 feet deep water swell at 15-17s building 5/22 and slowly dropping 5/23-24. These wave periods reflects the severe gale source. The Mothers Day source had winds to storm- force and the dominant period was longer. Wave Watch III places the onset stage for the new event locally Saturday 5/25 centered from 190 degrees. Inconsistent sets above average are possible 5/25 PM. The event should be filled in by Sunday 5/26 with a peak late in the day well above average. Slow change is expected with similar surf Monday morning followed by a downward trend into Tuesday from 180-200 degrees. Small surf from this direction should hold into Wednesday. The New Zealand source zone of 5/14-20 shifted to the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window south of French Polynesia 5/21-24. It is expected to hold over this area into 5/26, making for a series of lower events locally from 175-185 degrees, each being a notch smaller. Comparison of Wave Watch III output points of Pago Pago and Papeete show the further east dominance of the swell swath with low, long period swell at the former and large long-period swell at the latter. This near miss to the east makes for big error bars on the local surf estimate. The first one flared up as it crossed over 160W south of Hawaii 5/21-22 with gales to severe gales aimed highest SE of Hawaii. Long period onset from source centered near 180 degrees is expected within late Monday 5/27 to mid Tuesday 5/28. It should peak near to a notch above average early Wednesday. , the second flair up at 160W south of French Polynesia took place 5/23-24 with weaker winds and less northward aim of seas. This event is expected to stay on the low side of the average locally within 5/29-6/1 from 180 degrees. Hints of one more low one near background levels for 6/2-4 from the same direction. In the north Pacific, the second reinforcement to the Aleutian low is due 5/28-29 and could make for tiny to small NNW surf locally 5/31-6/1. East side is predicted to trend up 5/31-6/2. Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty. This collaborative forecast will resume on Tuesday, May 28. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.weather.gov/hfo/marine

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NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

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