Cholos 728×90 Generic

PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

NOTE: Please check with local authorities regarding beach closures.
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Sunday.
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through tonight, and 1 to 3 feet Sunday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Sunday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday.

Outlook

Outlook through Saturday July 11: Expect a mix of small background swells from the south-southeast and south-southwest through Tuesday.
A new longer period south-southwest swell arriving Wednesday may produce a slight bump in surf along south facing shores by mid-week.
The weak trades will keep small surf along east facing shores into early next week.
As the trade winds strengthen, expect choppy surf to increase along east facing shores from late Tuesday through the end of next week.
Surf along north facing shores will remain nearly flat, except for episodes of tiny surf due to easterly trade wind wrap and small pulses of northwest swell energy.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves.
The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers.
Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height.
Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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Houston

About Collaborative Surf

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
07/01
5ENE613SAME12-18ENEUP
2S1335DOWN
1SSW1835UP
THU
07/02
5ENE834UPLOW10-15ENEDOWN
3S1568UPLOW
FRI
07/03
4ENE834SAMELOW9-13EDOWN
2S1335DOWNLOW
1SSE1835UPLOW
SAT
07/04
4ENE713DOWNLOW9-13ESAME
2S1234SAMELOW
1SSE1634SAMELOW
SUN
07/05
4ENE612SAMELOW9-13ESAME
2SSE1334DOWNLOW
MON
07/06
4ENE612SAMELOW10-15EUP
3SE913SAMELOW
1SW1524UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY.
.
.
Active spell of south swell to hold a few more days though well less than the recent event.
DETAILED:.
Mid Wednesday on has summer conditions.
Minimal surf should hold on Thursday.
Summer conditions should hold through the period with tiny to small breakers for a few select NE exposures as described below.
Mid Wednesday on has breakers from 70-90 degrees at levels below the trade wind swell average.
Heights are predicted to increase on Thursday.
See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion for synoptic details driving the trend and uncertainties of trade winds over Oahu this period As common for summer, the center of the seasonally semi-permanent, NE Pacific, surface high pressure cell is near the annual northernmost position near 45N centered near 145W.
Fresh to strong breezes with pockets to near gales aimed at Hawaii held 6/27-30 on the California side of 145W north of 30N stretching northeastward over 800 nm.
An upper level trough over that fetch is weakening the surface winds 7/1, marking the end of this source.
Wind swell put on the conveyor belt 6/27-30 are heading to Hawaii.
The onset has reached the PacIOOS/CDIP Hilo buoy 7/1.
This energy is expected to fill in to Oahu late 7/1.
Breaker heights should climb near to a notch under the trade wind swell average from 40-70 degrees 7/2-3.
It should drop 7/4 to an east side minimum by 7/5-6.
Mid Wednesday on has breakers from 175-190 degrees at levels near the summer average during the arrival of active envelops, though within flat to background for most of the time.
This is the tail end of the recent above average event and the onset of a new event.
Heights are expected to increase on Thursday.
The third in a series of low pressure systems originating S to SE of New Zealand tracked ENE starting 6/23.
Middle gales set up a long fetch aimed just east of Hawaii into 6/25 as the low center settled S to SE of French Polynesia.
The fetch had better aim at Hawaii 6/24-25, though the winds had decreased to marginal gales.
The signal registered at the PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy 6/27-28 was weak.
It was not the caliber of the recent event which registered much higher when it passed the buoy last week.
This gives guidance to place higher confidence in wave model output for Oahu that shows this event lower than the recent event, with only near 2 deep water swell predicted for 7/2-3.
The model tends to bias low, and this forecast prefers to err towards the high side; hence, the numbers in the table above go a notch above the local wave model output.
The NOAA southern buoys 7/1 are noticing some rustling in the bushes for this new event in the 17-21 second wave period band, but the deer is not yet in the headlights.
From the energy already detected, odds are high that southerly exposures will be near to a notch above average on Thursday.
The PacIOOS/CDIP southern-exposure, near-shore buoys off Oahu and Lanai do show the onset stage in the 18-22s band midday 7/1.
Fine tuning to the surf forecast numbers can be made if necessary as the swell trains roll under the NOAA southern buoys late 7/1 into 7/2.
The event should be filled in by Thursday dawn from 175-190 degrees.
It should peak late Thursday, then drop to near average by Friday.
This event should linger within background to near average on 7/4 from 170-190 degrees.
A storm-force, compact, low pressure system SE of French Polynesia 6/26-27 aimed high seas to 40 feet at the Americas.
Angular spreading could bring in low, long-period swell from 155-170 degrees within 7/3-5 making for below-average breakers for more SE-exposures.
Strong trades over and north of the Tuamotu Islands should add below-average, short-period breakers starting 7/5 holding a few days from 140-160 degrees on SE-exposures.
A marginal gale in the Tasman Sea 6/26-30 reached into the subtropics.
It should add background level surf locally starting 7/5 and holding into 7/7 out of 210 degrees.
, the Tasman low is moving east 7/1.
Models show a compact gale east of New Zealand with a narrow fetch nosing to about 3000 nm away by Friday AM with seas within 20-25 feet.
This distance brings in forerunners locally from 190-200 degrees 7/8.
It should peak within 7/9-10 near to a notch above average then fade back to background for the weekend of 7/11.
No surf beyond tiny is expected from WNW to NNE 7/8-10.
East side is modelled to trend up 7/8-10 potentially above average into the weekend of 7/11.
Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.
The next Collaborative Forecast will be updated Monday, July 6.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI.
Please send suggestions to w-hfo.
webmaster@noaa.
gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.
weather.
gov/hfo/marine

Collaborative Surf Discussion (html formatted)

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY.
.
.
Active spell of south swell to hold a few more days though well less than the recent event.

DETAILED:.
Mid Wednesday on northern shores has summer conditions.
Minimal surf should hold on Thursday.

Summer conditions should hold through the period with tiny to small breakers for a few select NE exposures as described below.

Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers from 70-90 degrees at levels below the trade wind swell average.
Heights are predicted to increase on Thursday.

See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion for synoptic details driving the trend and uncertainties of trade winds over Oahu this period

As common for summer, the center of the seasonally semi-permanent, NE Pacific, surface high pressure cell is near the annual northernmost position near 45N centered near 145W.
Fresh to strong breezes with pockets to near gales aimed at Hawaii held 6/27-30 on the California side of 145W north of 30N stretching northeastward over 800 nm.
An upper level trough over that fetch is weakening the surface winds 7/1, marking the end of this source.
Wind swell put on the conveyor belt 6/27-30 are heading to Hawaii.
The onset has reached the PacIOOS/CDIP Hilo buoy 7/1.
This energy is expected to fill in to Oahu late 7/1.
Breaker heights should climb near to a notch under the trade wind swell average from 40-70 degrees 7/2-3.
It should drop 7/4 to an east side minimum by 7/5-6.

Mid Wednesday on southern shores has breakers from 175-190 degrees at levels near the summer average during the arrival of active envelops, though within flat to background for most of the time.
This is the tail end of the recent above average event and the onset of a new event.
Heights are expected to increase on Thursday.

The third in a series of low pressure systems originating S to SE of New Zealand tracked ENE starting 6/23.
Middle gales set up a long fetch aimed just east of Hawaii into 6/25 as the low center settled S to SE of French Polynesia.
The fetch had better aim at Hawaii 6/24-25, though the winds had decreased to marginal gales.
The signal registered at the PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy 6/27-28 was weak.
It was not the caliber of the recent event which registered much higher when it passed the buoy last week.
This gives guidance to place higher confidence in wave model output for Oahu that shows this event lower than the recent event, with only near 2 deep water swell predicted for 7/2-3.
The model tends to bias low, and this forecast prefers to err towards the high side; hence, the numbers in the table above go a notch above the local wave model output.

The NOAA southern buoys 7/1 are noticing some rustling in the bushes for this new event in the 17-21 second wave period band, but the deer is not yet in the headlights.
From the energy already detected, odds are high that southerly exposures will be near to a notch above average on Thursday.
The PacIOOS/CDIP southern-exposure, near-shore buoys off Oahu and Lanai do show the onset stage in the 18-22s band midday 7/1.
Fine tuning to the surf forecast numbers can be made if necessary as the swell trains roll under the NOAA southern buoys late 7/1 into 7/2.

The event should be filled in by Thursday dawn from 175-190 degrees.
It should peak late Thursday, then drop to near average by Friday.
This event should linger within background to near average on 7/4 from 170-190 degrees.

A storm-force, compact, low pressure system SE of French Polynesia 6/26-27 aimed high seas to 40 feet at the Americas.
Angular spreading could bring in low, long-period swell from 155-170 degrees within 7/3-5 making for below-average breakers for more SE-exposures.

Strong trades over and north of the Tuamotu Islands should add below-average, short-period breakers starting 7/5 holding a few days from 140-160 degrees on SE-exposures.

A marginal gale in the Tasman Sea 6/26-30 reached into the subtropics.
It should add background level surf locally starting 7/5 and holding into 7/7 out of 210 degrees.

Into the long range, the Tasman low is moving east 7/1.
Models show a compact gale east of New Zealand with a narrow fetch nosing to about 3000 nm away by Friday AM with seas within 20-25 feet.
This distance brings in forerunners locally from 190-200 degrees 7/8.
It should peak within 7/9-10 near to a notch above average then fade back to background for the weekend of 7/11.

No surf beyond tiny is expected from WNW to NNE 7/8-10.

East side is modelled to trend up 7/8-10 potentially above average into the weekend of 7/11.

Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.

The next Collaborative Forecast will be updated Monday, July 6.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI.
Please send suggestions to w-hfo.
webmaster@noaa.
gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.
weather.
gov/hfo/marine

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NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

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