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PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 5 to 7 feet through Thursday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Thursday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.

Outlook

Outlook through Wednesday April 15: Surf along north facing shores will remain up through early next week as a series of medium-period, northerly swells continue to move through.
The largest of the series is expected Friday, which will drive surf heights a few feet overhead along north facing shores.
Surf along south facing shores will trend up over the upcoming weekend as a small south swell fills in.
Surf along east facing shores will remain well below April normal through the weekend, followed by some increase with returning trades next week.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves.
The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers.
Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height.
Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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About Collaborative Surf

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
04/06
3WNW1757SAME7-10SWUP
3NNW913DOWN
3E812DOWN
TUE
04/07
3WNW1446DOWNMED9-13WSWDOWN
5NW1046UPMED
2S1524UPLOW
WED
04/08
5NW1268UPLOW7-10LVSAME
2SSE1323DOWNLOW
THU
04/09
5NNW1268SAMELOW7-10LVSAME
2SSE1213SAMELOW
FRI
04/10
6NNW12610UPLOW7-10LVSAME
2SE1113SAMELOW
SAT
04/11
4NNW1147DOWNLOW9-13NNWUP
2S1434UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY.
.
.
NW exposures topping the heights.
DETAILED:.
Mid Monday on has breakers from 295-350 degrees at levels below the April average from a combination of sources.
The dominant source arriving Monday 4/6 is from the far NW Pacific.
A storm- to hurricane-force system tracked NNE from northern Japan to the Kuril Island 4/1-3.
The fast track and long travel distance limited local surf potential.
The long travel will allow a longer event locally since the swell trains can be well dispersed by wave period over the 2500 nm route to Hawaii.
NOAA NW Hawaii buoys 51001 and 51101 to mid day 4/6 showed the longest period energy of 17-22 seconds, which travels faster, peaked Sunday evening.
Energy is building mid day 4/6 in the 14-16 second band.
The PacIOOS/CDIP Waimea, Oahu buoy mid day 4/6 shows the longest period energy of 18-22 peaked in the morning from 295-310 degrees.
The 16-17 second bands are rising.
This event should peak overnight Monday night below the April average with the surf heights slowly dropping into Wednesday from 295-320 degrees.
The second source for the breakers arriving locally on Monday 4/6 is associated with the slow-moving low pressure to the immediate NNW of Hawaii.
See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion for more details and the influence on local winds and skies from this weather pattern.
The initial stages Saturday to Sunday locally 4/4-5 saw the largest breakers from the aforementioned low.
Those higher breakers were generated during the onset phase of the low pressure occlusion with gales aimed just west of Hawaii 4/1-2.
That fetch weakened into 4/3-4 with only fresh to strong breezes over a short fetch aimed at Hawaii within 300-330 degrees.
Hence the sharp drop Sunday into Monday 4/5-6.
Wait, it is not over yet.
ASCAT satellite 4/5 showed the surface winds over the aforementioned fetch aimed at Hawaii to strengthen a notch with some pockets to near gales and seas of 10-12 feet about 800 nm away.
This shorter period energy should trend up the surf from 300-330 degrees locally Tuesday into Wednesday 4/7-8 with surf heights below the April average.
The WNW to NW component of this short-period event is expected to drop Thursday 4/9 as the dominant energy swings to NNW.
Models show the nearby low lifting to the NNE 4/6-8.
A large area of near gales aimed highest west of Hawaii is predicted to set up north of 40N beyond 1200 nm.
This should trend local surf up late Thursday into Friday from 330-350 degrees to levels near the April average at the peak mid day 4/10.
It should drop steadily on Saturday 4/11.
Mid Monday on has breakers from the trade wind belt of 50-90 degrees at an east side minimum.
Low conditions are expected to continue through the period while the trade wind belt to the E to NE of Hawaii out 1000 nm remains mostly moderate or less.
Mid Monday on has breakers from 140-220 degrees at a seasonal minimum.
A slight increase is predicted for Tuesday.
A broad area of severe gales SSE of French Polynesia just north of Antarctica aimed highest seas at the Americas 3/29-31.
Angular spreading gives low odds of bringing in low swell locally.
The NOAA southern Hawaii buoys Monday 4/6 are not showing any clear indication of this source, although the overlapping long-period WNW swell is making interpretation difficult.
The local PacIOOS/CDIP southern buoys are dominated by the WNW event.
Given no clear signal of southerly swell energy in the 17-22s band at the NOAA southern buoys 4/6, odds of arriving are lower.
This event should stay well below the summer average with a peak Tuesday 4/7 from 170-180 degrees.
A low-end gale east of New Zealand formed Friday 4/3.
It had less than a day aimed at Hawaii then began aiming more towards the west well away from Hawaii 4/4-5.
Only a small event under low probability is expected locally, picking up on Saturday 4/11 from 175-195 degrees.
It should be short-lived.
, models show low surf potential from the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere with of Hawaii at a minimum 4/12-14.
Hints of more low pressure areas SW to SE of New Zealand within 4/10-17, that could see better odds for surf locally within 4/17-24.
It is too early for specifics.
In the northern hemisphere, another nearby low is modelled to track from NNW of Hawaii 4/10 to NNE of Hawaii 4/12.
This could bring another shorter-period NNW to N event for 4/12-14 to near the April average at the peak 4/13.
Windswell from the trade wind belt of 50-90 degrees is expected to remain at a minimum.
Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.
The next Collaborative Forecast will be updated Wednesday, April 8.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI.
Please send suggestions to w-hfo.
webmaster@noaa.
gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.
weather.
gov/hfo/marine

Collaborative Surf Discussion (html formatted)

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY.
.
.
NW exposures topping the heights.

DETAILED:.
Mid Monday on northern shores has breakers from 295-350 degrees at levels below the April average from a combination of sources.

The dominant source arriving Monday 4/6 is from the far NW Pacific.
A storm- to hurricane-force system tracked NNE from northern Japan to the Kuril Island 4/1-3.
The fast track and long travel distance limited local surf potential.
The long travel will allow a longer event locally since the swell trains can be well dispersed by wave period over the 2500 nm route to Hawaii.

NOAA NW Hawaii buoys 51001 and 51101 to mid day 4/6 showed the longest period energy of 17-22 seconds, which travels faster, peaked Sunday evening.
Energy is building mid day 4/6 in the 14-16 second band.

The PacIOOS/CDIP Waimea, Oahu buoy mid day 4/6 shows the longest period energy of 18-22 peaked in the morning from 295-310 degrees.
The 16-17 second bands are rising.
This event should peak overnight Monday night below the April average with the surf heights slowly dropping into Wednesday from 295-320 degrees.

The second source for the breakers arriving locally on Monday 4/6 is associated with the slow-moving low pressure to the immediate NNW of Hawaii.
See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion for more details and the influence on local winds and skies from this weather pattern.

The initial stages Saturday to Sunday locally 4/4-5 saw the largest breakers from the aforementioned low.
Those higher breakers were generated during the onset phase of the low pressure occlusion with gales aimed just west of Hawaii 4/1-2.
That fetch weakened into 4/3-4 with only fresh to strong breezes over a short fetch aimed at Hawaii within 300-330 degrees.
Hence the sharp drop Sunday into Monday 4/5-6.
Wait, it is not over yet.

ASCAT satellite 4/5 showed the surface winds over the aforementioned fetch aimed at Hawaii to strengthen a notch with some pockets to near gales and seas of 10-12 feet about 800 nm away.
This shorter period energy should trend up the surf from 300-330 degrees locally Tuesday into Wednesday 4/7-8 with surf heights below the April average.
The WNW to NW component of this short-period event is expected to drop Thursday 4/9 as the dominant energy swings to NNW.

Models show the nearby low lifting to the NNE 4/6-8.
A large area of near gales aimed highest west of Hawaii is predicted to set up north of 40N beyond 1200 nm.
This should trend local surf up late Thursday into Friday from 330-350 degrees to levels near the April average at the peak mid day 4/10.
It should drop steadily on Saturday 4/11.

Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers from the trade wind belt of 50-90 degrees at an east side minimum.
Low conditions are expected to continue through the period while the trade wind belt to the E to NE of Hawaii out 1000 nm remains mostly moderate or less.

Mid Monday on southern shores has breakers from 140-220 degrees at a seasonal minimum.
A slight increase is predicted for Tuesday.

A broad area of severe gales SSE of French Polynesia just north of Antarctica aimed highest seas at the Americas 3/29-31.
Angular spreading gives low odds of bringing in low swell locally.

The NOAA southern Hawaii buoys Monday 4/6 are not showing any clear indication of this source, although the overlapping long-period WNW swell is making interpretation difficult.
The local PacIOOS/CDIP southern buoys are dominated by the WNW event.

Given no clear signal of southerly swell energy in the 17-22s band at the NOAA southern buoys 4/6, odds of arriving are lower.
This event should stay well below the summer average with a peak Tuesday 4/7 from 170-180 degrees.

A low-end gale east of New Zealand formed Friday 4/3.
It had less than a day aimed at Hawaii then began aiming more towards the west well away from Hawaii 4/4-5.
Only a small event under low probability is expected locally, picking up on Saturday 4/11 from 175-195 degrees.
It should be short-lived.

Into the long range, models show low surf potential from the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere with south shores of Hawaii at a minimum 4/12-14.
Hints of more low pressure areas SW to SE of New Zealand within 4/10-17, that could see better odds for surf locally within 4/17-24.
It is too early for specifics.

In the northern hemisphere, another nearby low is modelled to track from NNW of Hawaii 4/10 to NNE of Hawaii 4/12.
This could bring another shorter-period NNW to N event for 4/12-14 to near the April average at the peak 4/13.

Windswell from the trade wind belt of 50-90 degrees is expected to remain at a minimum.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

The next Collaborative Forecast will be updated Wednesday, April 8.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI.
Please send suggestions to w-hfo.
webmaster@noaa.
gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.
weather.
gov/hfo/marine

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NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

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