PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 10 to 14 feet through Wednesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 6 to 10 feet through Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 4 feet through Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Wednesday.

Outlook

Outlook through Tuesday April 04: warning-level surf will be likely once again along north and west facing shores Thursday night through as late as Saturday due to another, slightly larger, west-northwest swell. This swell will slowly ease through the latter half of the weekend. Small and choppy surf will continue along east facing shores through the week due to moderate to fresh onshore winds, then begin to build over the weekend as the trades strengthen locally and upstream of the islands. A small south swell will remain possible Wednesday night through Saturday. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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GIBBS

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
03/27
8WNW141418DOWN11-16EDOWN
6E834SAME
TUE
03/28
7NW141216DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
5E834SAMELOW
WED
03/29
8NW141418UPLOW11-16ESAME
5E834SAMELOW
THU
03/30
7NNW131214DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
5E834SAMELOW
2SSW1624UPLOW
FRI
03/31
12WNW182834UPLOW11-16ESAME
5E834SAMELOW
2SSW1624SAMELOW
SAT
04/01
10NW152026DOWNLOW17-21EUP
7E735UPLOW
2SSW1524SAMELOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Wintry surf continues. Detailed: Mid Monday on has breakers above the March average from 280-325 degrees, centered near 310 degrees. Heights are expected to trend down though remain above average on Tuesday from the same direction. The jet stream holds in winter mode with a more southerly track than expected in spring and an Aleutian low favoring longitudes near the dateline. Such patterns keep surf in Hawaii above average. A hurricane-force low pressure system formed off Japan 3/21 and anchored near the dateline by 3/23. This system gave the extra- large surf from 280-320 degrees that grew rapidly 3/25 and peaked on 3/26. The NW Hawaii NOAA buoys 3/27 in the morning show a steady downward trend for the long-period energy in the 16-19 second band. The moderate periods of 13-15 seconds are holding steady. This event is expected to slowly decline Tuesday from 280-325 degrees with a new event due late Tuesday. A long-lived area of surface low pressure near the dateline within 30-55°N latitude that set up 3/23 had a reinforcement low merge from the SW in on 3/25. A long, wide fetch of gales over the 305-325 degree band overtook existing seas, which maintained wave heights above 20 feet. The head of the fetch was about 1400 nm away 3/26. The system nosed to within 1200 nm 3/27 as the winds decreased and the low center shifted north. The winds were not as extreme as the previous system, so the dominant wave periods are expected to be short-lived in the 16-17 second band, but settle soon to the 13-15 second band and hold steady. The longest wave period are due Tuesday near sundown locally from 305-320 degrees. Surf should peak above average on Wednesday from 305-325 degrees. It should remain above average Thursday as it slowly declines. A new event is due Thursday evening. A repeat pattern of the japan-to-dateline, extratropical-cyclone express is expected 3/27-29 to bring a similar round of extra- large, or surf high enough for outer reefs, later in the week. The low has formed east of Japan. At 12Z, 2017-03-27, the center of 979 mb is near 35°N, 150°E or about 2900 nm WNW of Hawaii. The system is gaining hurricane force. It is modelled to track ENE, reaching the dateline 3/29. As with the event of 3/25-27, the first 48 hours has strongest winds over the 280-305 degree band relative to Hawaii. The head of the fetch is predicted to reach about 1200 nm away by early 3/29. Long-period forerunners are due locally near sundown Thursday, with a steady rise overnight. This more westerly component swell should peak Friday 3/31 but hold into Sunday 4/2. Different from the previous event, this new system is modelled to track further east of the dateline, thus closer and bigger, as it adds wave energy to the 305-330 degree band 3/29-30. The head of the fetch of gales is predicted within 1000 nm by late 3/29. The fetch over this area is expected to be long- lived, with additional energy added from 330-360 degrees as the system weakens near the eastern Aleutians 3/30-31. Proximity to the high seas east of the dateline should make this event larger than the event locally of 3/25-27. Dominant energy centered near 310 degrees should be filled in by Friday 3/31. The directional band should be wide, from 280-330 degrees. Extra- large surf should hold Friday into Saturday as the event slowly declines. Mid Monday on has breakers from 70-100 degrees a notch below the trade windswell average. Similar surf is predicted for Tuesday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for an explanation of the local trend in trades. Surface high pressure between Hawaii and California has strongest trades well east of Hawaii near 21°N or southward. This upstream source should keep low to moderate windswell of 7-10 seconds locally through the week. The longer wave periods should keep surf about the same through the week from 70-100 degrees. The local winds are expected near the moderate bracket, which would not be sufficient to keep such surf without the remote source. Breakers from windswell out of 70-90 degrees is predicted to increase over the weekend. Mid Monday on has low energy from swell out of the southern hemisphere, and larger breakers for exposures to the north Pacific, more westerly component swell. The latter is expected to decline on Tuesday. A series of low pressures tracked SE of New Zealand 3/20-27. The earlier ones had new low pressures following too closely so the aim of high seas was more zonal, or west to east. Angular spreading should allow low, long-period swell locally less than 2 feet 3/27-29 from 180-220 degrees. Stronger lows with a following high pressure to allow more aim towards Hawaii occurred 3/23-25. Seas barely topped 20 feet, though the fetch area was wide. It should at least allow the local surf to climb to summer background levels starting 3/30 from 180-200 degrees. Into the long range, similar surf into the weekend from 180-200 degrees is likely. A stronger system but further away to the SE of New Zealand 3/26-27 tracked rapidly east. It could keep a background summer surf pattern locally 4/3-4 from 180-200 degrees. In the north Pacific, surf should remain above average into 4/2 with a downward trend below average by 4/3 from 315-360 degrees. Models show a compact gale forming near the dateline 4/1 with a NE track. It could make a NNW event near average roughly 4/4-5. Hints of a larger NW event a few days later, 4/7-8. Breakers from trade windswell are expected to reach the average by 4/2 and hold into 4/3 out of 70-90 degrees. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, March 29. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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