PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 8 to 12 feet tonight, rising to 14 to 18 feet by Wednesday afternoon.
Surf along west facing shores will be 4 to 8 feet tonight, rising to 12 to 16 feet by Wednesday afternoon.
Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet tonight, lowering to 1 to 3 feet through Wednesday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Wednesday.

Outlook

Outlook through Tuesday February 04: The next round of a northwest swell is expected tonight into Wednesday, and will bring advisory level surf Wednesday into Thursday.
This swell will be followed by a slightly larger north-northwest swell late Friday into Saturday, bringing solid advisory level surf.
Small surf will continue along south facing shores as background swells move through this week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the week, with an increase possible over the weekend as breezy trades return.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves.
The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers.
Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height.
Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST DATE	SWL HGT	DMNT DIR	DMNT PD	H 1/3	H 1/10	HGT TEND	PROB	WIND SPD	WIND DIR	SPD TEND
1PM 01/27	7	WNW	14	12	16	DOWN		11-16	E	SAME
	5	ENE	6	1	2	SAME
TUE 01/28	6	WNW	14	10	12	SAME	MED	7-10	SE	DOWN
	3	E	9	2	4	UP	LOW
WED 01/29	9	WNW	15	15	20	UP	LOW	7-10	SE	SAME
	3	E	9	2	4	SAME	LOW
THU 01/30	8	WNW	14	14	18	SAME	LOW	4-6	VRB	SAME
	3	E	9	2	4	SAME	LOW
FRI 01/31	9	NW	13	15	20	UP	LOW	11-16	NE	UP
	3	E	9	2	4	SAME	LOW
SAT 02/01	10	NNW	13	18	22	DOWN	LOW	13-19	ENE	SAME
	5	NE	7	2	4	SAME	LOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGT	Open ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIR	Dominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PD	Dominant period in seconds
H1/3	Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10	Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TEND	Height tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB	Probability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD	Open water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIR	Wind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TEND	Wind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:.
Active winter mode.
DETAILED:.
Mid Monday on has breakers from 290-320 degrees at levels above the seasonal average.
Heights are expected to drop a notch on Tuesday.
A vast cyclonic surface wind gyre has filled the north Pacific from the Kuril Islands to north of Hawaii over the past week.
This pattern has kept most days above average with peak days near typical winter upper end.
NOAA NW Hawaii buoys 51001 and 51101 Monday morning 1/27 show the wave energy is dominant in the 12-16 second band with a slow decline.
Surf is expected to stay about the same through Monday night with a slight decrease on Tuesday 1/28 to near the average from 290-320 degrees.
The next low pressure in the series occluded on Saturday 1/25 within the parent Aleutian low filling the NW to central N Pacific.
Winds were strongest 1/25 to severe gales, with an exceptionally long, broad fetch of gales covering within 25-45N and the Kuril Islands to the Date Line.
The pattern is slowly weakening 1/27-28 with an eastward shift.
Near gales have reached to within 1000 nm of Hawaii by 1/27.
This pattern is expected to hold about the same into 1/29.
Surf is predicted to rebuild above average Tuesday night and continue to rise Wednesday from 290-320 degrees.
Heights should hold at elevated levels on Thursday.
The more WNW to NW surf generated within 1/25-29 should be long-lived in Hawaii, holding Friday into Sunday 1/31-2/2 with a slow downward trend.
More NNW surf is due to dominate by mid Friday into Saturday 1/31-2/1.
Models show the Aleutian low pressure pattern steadily moving east 1/29-31.
At the surface, a marginal gale is predicted to reach to within 1000 nm of Hawaii by early Thursday, with near gales to within 600 nm.
This should bring moderate-period swell of 11-15 seconds from 310-345 degrees up starting mid Friday keep surf above average.
The peak of this event is estimated near dawn Saturday.
Shorter-period energy of 8-12 seconds from 350-020 degrees should underlay the longer period NW to NNW swell Saturday making for less regular breaking patterns.
Mid Monday on has breakers from 60-90 degrees at levels below the trade windswell average.
A slight increase is predicted for Tuesday.
Fresh to strong trades east of 155W to the E to ENE of Hawaii out 1000 nm 1/27-30 should keep short-period surf from 60-90 degrees into the weekend.
A new trade wind event locally going into the weekend should give rise to a new windswell Saturday from 000-050 degrees.
Select northerly exposures of the east side on Saturday should be above average from the NNW to NNE event aforementioned.
Mid Monday on has small breakers from a mix of longer-period southerly swell and shorter-period W swell.
Similar surf is predicted for Tuesday.
The mid latitudes of the south Pacific had a large, slow-moving low pressure SE of French Polynesia 1/22-24.
This could keep small surf locally this week from within 160-180 degrees.
Westerly exposures of the south shore should likely hold about the same off and on this week from the cyclonic gyre in the north Pacific aforementioned.
, a break in low pressures west of the Date Line 1/29-31 should lead to below average surf within 2/2-4 as the shorter period NNW to NNE event declines.
Models show a new hurricane-force system forming this weekend west of the Date Line, that could bring long-period WNW to NW surf back to the average by 2/5.
East side is predicted to be near the average from 60-90 degrees 2/2-4.
South shore is expected to be below average 2/2-4.
Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, January 29.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI.
Please send suggestions to w-hfo.
webmaster@noaa.
gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.
weather.
gov/hfo/marine

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NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell