Pat Caldwell

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along south facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet tonight, building to 5 to 7 feet on Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet tonight, building to 3 to 5 feet on Friday. Locally higher sets will continue to affect areas exposed to the south swell. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Friday. Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Friday.

Outlook

Outlook through Thursday June 29: A southeast swell, in combination with a new above average south swell arriving tonight, will result in near or just below advisory level surf along south facing shores on Friday. A northeast swell arriving late in the weekend, may result in advisory level surf along east facing shores early next week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST DATE	SWL HGT	DMNT DIR	DMNT PD	H 1/3	H 1/10	HGT TEND	PROB	WIND SPD	WIND DIR	SPD TEND
1PM 06/21	2	N	9	2	3	DOWN		11-16	E	SAME
	5	E	8	2	4	SAME
	3	SE	15	5	7	UP
	4	SSW	15	6	10	SAME
THU 06/22	2	N	8	1	2	DOWN	LOW	11-16	E	SAME
	4	E	8	2	4	SAME	LOW
	3	SE	14	5	8	SAME	MED
	3	SSW	13	5	7	DOWN	LOW
FRI 06/23	2	N	8	1	2	SAME	LOW	11-16	E	SAME
	4	E	8	2	4	SAME	LOW
	3	SE	13	4	6	DOWN	LOW
	3	S	16	6	8	UP	LOW
	2	SSW	12	2	4	DOWN	LOW
SAT 06/24	2	N	12	2	4	UP	LOW	11-16	E	SAME
	4	E	8	2	4	SAME	LOW
	3	SE	12	4	6	DOWN	LOW
	3	S	14	5	8	DOWN	LOW
SUN 06/25	3	N	10	4	6	SAME	LOW	11-16	E	SAME
	2	NE	13	3	5	UP	LOW
	4	E	8	2	4	SAME	LOW
	2	S	13	3	5	DOWN	LOW
MON 06/26	2	N	9	2	4	DOWN	LOW	11-16	ESE	SAME
	5	NE	12	6	10	UP	LOW
	2	S	12	2	4	SAME	LOW
	1	SSW	20	2	4	UP	LOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGT	OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR	DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PD	DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3	SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10	AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TEND	HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB	PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD	OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR	WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND	WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Active surf pattern from around the compass for start of summer. Detailed: Mid Wednesday on has tiny to small breakers from 340-020 degrees. Lingering low breakers are possible into Thursday. Weak low pressure systems in the mid latitudes of the north Pacific have brought surf up above the summer nil this week. Similar above average surf is expected this period. A low pressure near 40°N, 160°W is gaining strength 6/21. It is modelled to race NE with a frustrated fetch, meaning the seas aimed at Hawaii are opposite in direction to the low pressure track. This limits surf potential. It could make for a small event, picking up late Saturday, peaking Sunday.and fading out Monday from 350-010 degrees. Strong high pressure west of oregon and low pressure from land- induced heating near the California coast is modelled to set up strong to near gale winds 6/22-24. It should bring up above average surf for ne-exposures starting mid Sunday, growing above average by Monday centered from 50 degrees. Mid Wednesday on has breakers below the trade windswell average from 70-90 degrees. Similar conditions are expected for Thursday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for aspects of the local trades and weather. Trades over and immediately E to ENE of Hawaii are modelled within moderate levels. Some areas of fresh breezes east of 150°W are adding some 7-9 second wave period energy. Surf should remain about the same through the period from 70-90 degrees. Aforementioned NE swell should bring breakers above average starting Sunday night into Monday. Mid Wednesday on has breakers above the summer average from overlapping sources within SE to SW. Heights are expected to trend down Thursday yet remain above average. A new event is due late Thursday. The mix of swell direction from within SW to SE should continue through the period with an active austral winter mid latitude pattern from longitudes of Tasmania eastward to chile 6/12-19. A storm-force system with seas to 40 feet east of New Zealand 6/13-14 was the source for the above average surf that filled in 6/19 and is peaking 6/20 from 190-200 degrees. The southern Hawaii NOAA buoys show dominant wave energy has spread within 14-17 seconds. The wider spread allows more consistency to the larger sets. The estimate of deep water swell height at the southern buoys is 5-6 feet. The new pacioos Pearl Harbor entrance buoys shows swell height closer to 2 feet. This low value is likely associated with the shallow location of 35 m. The recent Barbers Point buoy was in 300 m. The additional travel of the swell over the mamala bay shelf results in a frictional loss of swell size as measured at Pearl Harbor. The swell direction at Pearl Harbor is also influenced by the sea floor shape and proximity to the deep water channel, which biases the direction toward 165 degrees. The New Zealand swell is expected to slowly trend down on Thursday. Surf should remain above average with the mix of swell sources. A long-lived severe gale S to SE of Easter Island 6/12-16 aimed swell at Hawaii from 130-150 degrees. This event picked up locally 6/19 and is filled in on 6/20. A weaker low pressure SW of Easter Island 6/14-16 is expected to contribute to the SE to SSE swell, keeping average to above average surf from 130-150 degrees into the weekend. Shadowing by the Big Island partially reduces surf for the south shore of Oahu with greater influence eastward. The New Zealand low pressure regained strength 6/15-16 near 50s, 160°W. Gales to severe gales grew seas to 25 feet over a wide fetch covering the 175-190 degree band. It slowly weakened to marginal gales 6/17-18 as it moved slowly east. This new source should fill in late Thursday, peak late Friday above average, and drop over the weekend. Heights should fall to near average levels by Saturday afternoon, and continue a slow decline into Monday. Into the long range, the weak low pressure has lingered 6/19-21 near 50s, 150°W and should keep shorter-period breakers from near 180 degrees 6/27-29 at levels below average. A hurricane-force system raced east near 65°S from SW of Tasmania to SE of New Zealand 6/18-19. Seas grew over 35 feet aimed at the Americas. Angular spreading could bring low, long-period swell locally from 180-220 degrees to keep surf potential to near the summer average within 6/27-29. In the northern hemisphere, the NE swell should slowly trend down 6/27-28, dropping below the trade windswell average by 6/29. Trades are modelled to increase 6/28-30, trending windswell back up from 70-90 degrees. Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, June 23. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.