Big Picture

BIG PICTURE Sunday 11.27.16


The Jet has been more north than normal for this time; ridging in the central NPAC basin with some storms spawning either side has lead to lower than average NW events. That changes early this week. Most the High pressure is off to the NE and thus the long term strong trades. This pattern is also weakening. The Jet lowers off Japan into Monday with a new boomer storm birthed within (read below).There’s one more to follow in the 7 day period but not as significant. From Tuesday on the jet stretches out beyond our latitude with a NNE tilt into the gulf. A split in the jet occurs Friday to our NW but luckily a deeper troughed Jet shapes up off Japan again. By Sunday the Jet is super weak for a couple days hinting of a short break in swell production after the Dec 7-9th episode (below).

Today it’s tiny 2’ maybe plus thanks to the fun NNW swells like last Friday; super strong but very east Trades helped conditions better than you’d expect. We go into a rather small NW till things heat up big time Friday Dec 2.

#1 A small 15 sec NW reinforcement comes in tonight Sunday for some 4’ surf by midday Monday then declining Tuesday onward. The Thursday source was strong is distant near Kamchatka and thus the small waves with longer periods.

#2 A Big NW pops the buoys to 22 sec around 2pm this Thursday the 1st and the surf should see a change for the evening session to 4’ or less. It rises all night with a peak Friday morning at 8-12’ with just below warning level sets to feather select outer reefs. With the 16-18 sec it’s going to be fat, fast and juicy for the Vans World Cup. Surf should still be cranking near 6-10’ Saturday as it fades slowly from there. The LARGE source pushes off the Kuril Is Monday 11/28 as seas ramp up to 45’ thanks to the 45-55kt winds. The track is east but the storm is broad enough and the fetch gets to the dateline 1200 miles away.

#3 By Friday a large storm tries to come off Japan/Kurils but much of the Low stays land bound. A decent fetch with now weaker winds points our way by Saturday the 3rd. But the large Gyre centered in the Bering Sea still manages a wide fetch of gales toward the dateline Monday the 5th. I think models are running hot on this as they’re calling for 10’ swell at 14 sec Thursday Dec 8th. We need more time to see how the storm plays out. Either way an adv. NW is coming and will certainly get heats out at Pipe day 1 of the holding period.

The Jet has been semi decent for the season the last week or two but now it is weak and broken. So, there’s little chance of swell generation in the next 7 days with one current low on the charts hugging NZL (below).
Recently, we’ve had tiny back ground Taz swells or SW angles mixing with SE Trade wrap. It’s been pretty bad but rideable. Today, Sunday we saw another pulse of 16 sec SW getting us up to chest high but the very East Trades has made it chunky side shores. But the lines are fairly long and thick.
#1 The above Taz source (from last last weekend) tracked east over the south Island of NZL getting to just off the east coast Monday the 21st Thus, we should get more typical SSW energy Monday the 28th thru Wednesday the 30th. Watch for some 1-2.5’(waist-chest) maybe 3’ at top spots/sets as buoys should read 1.5’ swell at 15 sec.
#2 Another low just SE of NZL rolls ENE Tuesday-Thursday adding to the prior event and keeping surf in the same zone of up to shoulder high into Friday.
#3 A Taz Storm spawns Thursday the 24th into Saturday. WW3 says 1’ 15 sec Dec 1st only. This would mean 2’ surf. Not bad for December.
#4 This #3 storm above is expected to just breach the east coast of NZL Monday the 27th Add a week and presto: more of the same small waist to chest SSW at 15 sec around Monday Dec 4th declining from Thursday.

Trade Swell
It’s been solid 4’ all week with some higher sets off and on the last week and it’s going to fade through the workweek. This is due to the High N to NE tracking east. But prior the upstream trades have been up to 800 miles long and thus the longer 9-10 sec windswell. Still we expect lingering above normal trade swell until Wednesday the 30th.

The Tropics
So far they’re nothing forecasted on Hawaii for the next week or so.

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4+ local) 15 Feet (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

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