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7am OBs Sunday 2/8 by Hawaiian South Shore

Super clear & dry with cold 60 degress NNE winds early today. High surf advisories for N facing shores.

N-NW swell tops it today but with onshore winds making it ugly. GIANT NW swell builds fast Wednesday. Tiny south swells. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and holding on the N-NW at 10' 12sec. Sunset Pt is 6-8' occ + but crummy shape + side onshores & Pipe lefts are 6' and OTW up to 8' but wrong angle and ugly; Chuns is terrible 4-6+' and Haleiwa 5-7'
and all spots are mushy. Clear skies.
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West:

Up and holding N-NW with Surf hitting 4-6'+ on the Bowl and Middle at Makaha super smooth with offshores NNE winds; clear.
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Town:

Holding a tiny background South from Kaisers to Kewalos 0-1.5' mostly and tiny for Queens/Canoes are 0-1' with nice smooth conditions and lite offshores; clear.
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Diamond Head:

Holding from trace backgrounds swells at 0-1.5' (no 2' sets) and smooth at Right hands/Cliffs/Lite House with clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Up a hair and Holding mostly small North wrap, barely visible East and South at 1-2' for Full Pt-Half and barely 2' into middles to Chambers; smooth offshores and clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and Holding at Makapu'u with North wrap at 1-2 maybe 3' toward Keiki's and bumpy with clear skies.

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
65°F
max: 79°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 82°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
3mph ESE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 83°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 84°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 85°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph E

Range:
10-20mph N-NE
easing
Range:
5-15mph E-NE
veering variable later
Range:
5-15mph Light/Var
veering seabrz
Range:
10-20mph E-NE

Range:
5-10mph E-NE
veering variable

North

Monday
02/08
N-NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Holding
10' 12 sec; ugly, cool
Tuesday
02/09
N-NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Dropping
8' 11 sec
Wednesday
02/10
NW
Haw: 15-25
Face: 20-40
Rising
30' plus afternoon: 4' 22 sec 2a, 14' 20 sec 8a, 20' 18 sec 8p
Thursday
02/11
NW
Haw: 15-25+
Face: 20-40+
Dropping
16' 16 sec
Friday
02/12
NW
Haw: 12-18
Face: 18-30
Dropping
12' 15 sec
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West

Monday
02/08
N-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Holding
clean offshore, clear
Tuesday
02/09
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping

Wednesday
02/10
NW
Haw: 15-20+
Face: 20-35
Rising
peaking 25' afternoon
Thursday
02/11
NW
Haw: 15-20
Face: 20-35
Holding

Friday
02/12
NW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
Dropping

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South

Monday
02/08
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding
offshores
Tuesday
02/09
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
1.5' 14 sec
Wednesday
02/10
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
1.5' 14 sec + 4' WNW wrap later
Thursday
02/11
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Dropping
1.5' 12 sec + 4' WNW wrap
Friday
02/12
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
.7' 16 sec (trace ground swell); + 3' WNW wrap
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east

Monday
02/08
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding

Tuesday
02/09
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Wednesday
02/10
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising Later
isolatd NW wrap
Thursday
02/11
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
isolated 4+' N wrap
Friday
02/12
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
isolated 3+' N wrap
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Current Swells:

Monday   02/08
Primary: Holding  N-NW  6-8+ surf at 12 sec
Secondary: Holding  ENE+N  1-2+' surf at 7 sec
Third: Holding  S  1.5' surf at 9 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   02/08
High N shore surf and small craft Advsrys
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Sailing Report:

Monday   02/08
Good with cool moderate NE trades and clear
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Diving Report:

Monday   02/08
good for South; Poor for North and poor/fair for deep West dives; poor/fair for East shores

Oahu

SUNSET
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
NE Trades moderate
poor
chilly
ROCKY POINT
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
NE Trades moderate
poor

Pipeline
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
NE Trades moderate
disorganized and ugly

HALEIWA
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
NE Trades moderate
poor

MAKAHA
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
NE Trades light
smooth

ALA MOANA
Monday   02/08
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light
good

Waikiki
Monday   02/08
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
North winds
smooth

Diamond Head
Monday   02/08
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
smooth

Sandy Beach
Monday   02/08
N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
North winds
good

Makapuu
Monday   02/08
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
North winds
fair to good

Maui

Hookipa
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
NE Trades light
poor

Honolua
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades light
poor to fair

Kihei
Monday   02/08
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
North winds
good

Hana
Monday   02/08
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
NE Trades light
stormy

Lahaina
Monday   02/08
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades light
clean

Kauai

Hanalei
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
North winds
poor
onshores
Majors
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
North winds
smooth

Poipu
Monday   02/08
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
good
offshores
Kapaa
Monday   02/08
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
North winds
bumpy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Monday   02/08
N
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NNE Winds
stormy

Kohala
Monday   02/08
N-NW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
North winds
smooth

Kona
Monday   02/08
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
North winds
good

Hilo
Monday   02/08
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
North winds
choppy

Kau
Monday   02/08
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
North winds
good

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

Big Picture

Friday 2/5/16

NPAC:
The El Nino jetstream is still large and in charge coming off Japan from 25-40 N lat (normally sitting 600-900 miles up). There are still Pockets of 200+ kts as the consolidated large upper air currents 30,000’ up go from off Japan beyond longitudes of Hawaii over this 7 day forecast period. It’s been supporting the growth of solid surface Lows and steering them close to us for back to back classic big swell for ages. Over this weekend the jet takes a new shape with an NE tilt up from Japan to a Dip down right toward Hawaii by Sunday 2/7 leading to a frontal passage and wind pattern change. The jet stays strong and low for more potential for warning levels well into the month and even for what could be another one of the biggest NW swells of the season.

Recent and current: This past week has been Cranking. The latest NW peaked near 15’ Tuesday afternoon; it’s 6-10’ Wednesday and it’s just 3’ Friday. Monday’s 17 sec WNW came from an occluded Low last Friday and nosed to about 900 off Saturday. It veered NW and with 15 sec Tuesday fading off but not before the next one came. The next storm Sunday tracked fast ENE Monday as it crossed the dateline just 1200 miles away. The winds had some pockets of hurricane force 65kts and up to 24’ seas only 1000 miles out. The outer reefs cracked for the VPP contest in the afternoon as the new energy pulsed. The episode peaked at 10-15’ from the more NNW. Much of the swell was off to our NE. Call 596-SURF, 638-RUSH, 922-BONG

Next: The next fetch pops up to our late Friday and it’s smaller than first model output. It’s a compact Low centered just 1200 miles to our N and racing ENE Saturday out of our window for a still sizeable, short interval NNW-N. Model ran hot as expected (esp on nearby Lows). WW3 downgraded to 8’ 11 sec swells equaling solid 6-10’ NNW for midday Sunday the 7th. Winds won’t be good at all. This will be storm surf thanks to a frontal passage and NW to N clockwise shifting winds.

Next: there’s a low to the NW of the preceding low tracking SE towards us this weekend with a partially captured fetch pulsing a new 12 sec NNW to 8-12’ Monday.

Next: Possible Small pulse of NW later Friday to 4’ from tiny east moving gale that reached the dateline Tuesday. Not showing much so far so not good chances.

Last but certainly not least: Models backed down on the GIANT NW slated for Wed-Friday. The real deal begins formation nearing the dateline this Sunday and intensifying with 40-50’ seas by Monday as it now tracks more East at first then ESE (earlier runs had a better captured fetch). By Tuesday ‘current’ model have this BIG storm broadening and nosing to within 900 miles thru Wednesday as the storm weakens and tracks out of our window Thursday. Original models fantasy had 20+’ swells at 18-20sec; now it’s peaking at 17’ at 16-18 sec but it will still be another BIG Wednesday. 12’ 20 sec at 2pm will mean solid 20’ in the afternoon 2/10 peaking at night. But the fetch was long so it will be a slow decline Thursday with Surf that could hit 30’ (45-50’ faces) at Peahi and 25’ (40’ faces) at Waimea with readings like this. The margin of error is 3-5’ at this time. We’re keeping an eye on it like Eddie Would Go.

SPAC:
The Jet down under is actually conducive to some SSW swell development. The Flow is ENE all week and almost N pointing by week’s end. The southern branch goes zonal by Friday. It really weakens after that with little to no surface low potential.

Recent and current: It’s been tiny with mostly NW wrap trying to occas. give what’s been missing. Trace background thigh high surf is all we’ve had with a few exceptional 2’ sets.

Next: A low moves ENE within the Jet flow mentioned Tues 2/2-Thurs as it veers east out of our window. So we can only expect 2’ maybe 2.5’ surf from the SSW-S around Tuesday-Thursday at 14 seconds.

Next: a fairly big Low comes out from under NZL Friday the 5th and doesn’t have much of an extended fetch so we’ll only see 1’ of SSW swell at 16 seconds Friday the 12th or 2’ surf.

Long Range: That’s about it for now. Occasional lows moving within the off and on zonal jet through the period.


Windward: Tiny trade swells under 2’ with N wrap over riding all other sources.

Tropics: Nothing.



Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4+ local) 15 Feet (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)


Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

Hurricanes/T-Storms so far….

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores Enrique Felicia
Guillermo Hilda Ignacio Jimena Kevin Linda
Marty Nora Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra
Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda

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