Surf Summary & News Breaks
SNN CHIEF SURFING OFFICER: GARY KEWLEY
Your Exclusive 6:45am OBZ: and the surf scene for Windy Thursday 5/24/12
Fresh to strong and gusty trades through mostly clear leeward skies...off on clear for country and even SE corner.
Country: Down but rising: we have 12" vibrations from the trade wrap this morning but we see some 1' 13 sec deep water energy which should lead to 2' NW sets later today into Friday morning only. Surface is smooth offshores with another epic day for diving. WEST: Down but rising later on the tiny 2' NW. There's also a hint of SSW at 0 occ 1' with smooth offshores. TOWN: Down but rising later on new tiny 2' SSW. Currently tho' at mostly 0-1.5' (thigh high) with occas. 2' sets tops; poor to fair overall with side-offshore winds. Diamond Head: Holding on SE wind swell+SSW at 1-3' but it's windy; & hacked up by 15-25+ trades. SANDYS: Held from ystrdy and rising more later; currently at 2-3' on sets on mix of Wind swell and hint of S with 15-30 sideshore trade winds and some barrelling. Generals showing. Lotta current. EAST: MAKAPU'U: Held and Rising more later today on Trade swell; now its at 2-4' and messy chop but there's power, size and sun.
Surf News etc
Get your entries in for the Local Motion Surf Into Summer HERE
Lets help the Kids. Mauli Ola Fundraiser.
Ftg. Natural Vibes and club DJ after party
Tickets: $25 presage at Turtle Bay Concierge, $35 at the door. Doors open 6p.
This is a fundraiser for Cystic Fibrosis research.
Surfer, the Bar. HERE
Paddle for George this Sunday from Sunset to Waimea. HERE
Surf Report
- Forecast 1-5
- Oahu
- Maui
- Kauai
- Big Island
- Swell Tracker
- Big Surf
- Weather
Winds
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Catch the why, when and where of your waves and weather once a week...
BIG SURF PICTURE 5/24/12
NPAC: The Jet actually shows some potential for gale development off Japan next week. Currently its strongest looping under the gulf and 'gone' west of the dateline.
Currently.....nothing but occas isolated 2' NE sets Wednesday. But we did have a weak Low off Japan which hit the dateline Monday as it weakens. We should see rideable 1-2' NW surf Thursday afternoon fading Friday.
Last: minor, iffy sources of NNW swell for June1. Lets wait a couple days and see how models pan out.
SPAC: The Northern Jet is dominant and the Southern Jet off NZL are zonal over the next week with no significant or near advisory level surf sources over the next 2 weeks. We're below seasonal size.
Current: lame for ground swell and quality this AM. But Lanai Buoy shows 1' 14 sec of SSW so....
Source: last Thursday 5/17 models showed a gale with captured fetch (both the low and its winds pointing up our way) way right off NZL east coast...these narrower fetches lose more energy with the 4000 miles so lets claim 1-2 maybe +' filling Thursday afternoon. Likely 2' peak.
Next: A gale Low moved east last weekend off NZL and weakened. Lets hope for 1-2 maybe 3' for the Local Motion Surf into Summer this Memorial Day weekend (Sat-Monday).
Last: A giant hurricane level Low tracks zonal (eastbound) way down there near Antarctica; swell from this source will come from the SW flank and be sideband swell of 'hopefully' 3' around the last day of May into June.
East Shores: Good size and power from local and upstream trades from the strong 1033 High to the NE..its should stay elevated to just below advsry's into the weekend before tapering off Monday or Tuesday. Then its the usual flucuations of Spring Trade hts of 2' and up to 3' from Trades and occas NE pulses.
FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE (this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
SYNOPSIS...GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE STILL STRONG AND GUSTY ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION OF A WIND ADVISORY OVER MOST OF MAUI COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS INCREASED IN THE ISLAND VICINITY
OVERNIGHT...AS A FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS REACHED THE STATE FROM THE
EAST. MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE
MOISTURE....WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING ABOUT 8 THOUSAND FEET.
AIR MASS ALSO BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...DUE TO THE PRESENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR OAHU EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD...THOUGH ITS INFLUENCE ON THE ISLAND WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THOUGH REST OF TODAY. TRADE WIND WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY...WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...DUE TO
THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SUMMITS OF HALEAKALA AS WELL AS MAUNA KEA AND
MAUNA LOA EARLY THIS MORNING. HENCE THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR THOSE SUMMITS. EXPECT THE
UPPER LOW TO BE FAR WEST ENOUGH FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE STATE TO THE WEST LATER TODAY...AIR MASS
IN THE ISLAND VICINITY WILL BECOME MORE STABLE. LATEST FORECAST
CHARTS STILL INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE REGION. AS
SUCH...DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS FRIDAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE
HIGH STAYS FAR NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. IN TURN...TRADE
WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A MORE MODERATE
LEVEL. LATEST FORECAST MODELS STILL INDICATE AIR MASS IS TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE ISLAND VICINITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER TO CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AND CHANNELS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS TODAY. WINDS MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE GALE CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH...THOUGH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES ALONG EAST FACING SHORES HAVE BUILT ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO WARRANT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS.
EXPECT ELEVATED ROUGH SURF TO PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WINDS.
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM HST TODAY FOR HALEAKALA AND THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY...AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND COASTAL
WATERS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR MAUI...MOLOKAI....
LANAI
AND REST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR REST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
