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Exclusive Obs: 7am update Friday Jan 30, 2015 powered by Hanks Tax 853-1170.

Cloudy with light North winds. Post Front passage and dissipating.

High Surf Advsry in advance of a new NW which is rising later & will peak at 12+ Saturday.
Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the 13 sec NW: NW buoy is 10' 11 sec. on the new NW. Waimea is 4' 13 sec. Sunset is 2-4' and Pipe is 2-3' and everywhere is onshore N winds and lame; cloudy.
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West:

Down and dropping on the NW at 1-2+' mostly and smooth offshore; cloudy.
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Town:

Down and Holding tiny on the generic background S at 0-1.5' with glassy to offshore N winds at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area at 0-1.5'. Cloudy.
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Diamond Head:

Down and Holding on the background South at 0-1.5' with smooth offshores; cloudy (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Down and Holding on a combo swell with N and S at 0-1.5' right near shore and out at the Points with light N winds and smooth. Cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on an East and N swell at a smooth 0-1-2' sets off and on and bumpy onshores. Cloudy.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
3mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 83°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph NE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 82°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 83°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph SSE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph WSW

NE
10-20

NE
5-15
veering variable
SW
5-10
New front and Konas again
W
5-10
veering round compass
NW
5-7

North

Saturday
01/31
NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
Rising Early
11' 14 sec; some near 15' 2nd reefs
Sunday
02/01
NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Dropping
11' 14 sec
Monday
02/02
NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Dropping
8' 12 sec
Tuesday
02/03
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising Later
6' 14 sec 8pm
Wednesday
02/04
N-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping

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West

Saturday
01/31
NW
Haw: 8-10
Face: 12-18
Rising Early

Sunday
02/01
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Dropping

Monday
02/02
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping

Tuesday
02/03
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising Later

Wednesday
02/04
N-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Dropping

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South

Saturday
01/31
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Sunday
02/01
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Monday
02/02
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Tuesday
02/03
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Wednesday
02/04
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

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east

Saturday
01/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
02/01
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Monday
02/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
02/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
02/04
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Saturday   01/31
Primary: Rising  NW  8-12+
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  0-2'
Third: Holding  S  0-1.5'
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   01/31
High surf advsry for NW Shores through
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   01/31
Good with NE trades 10-20
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Diving Report:

Saturday   01/31
Great for South and poor for North and West and fair for East

Oahu

SUNSET
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+
NE Trades moderate
poor to fair

ROCKY POINT
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20
NE Trades moderate
CLOSED OUT

Pipeline
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20
NE Trades moderate
poor to fair

HALEIWA
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
NE Trades moderate
poor to fair

MAKAHA
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
NE Trades light-moderate
good

ALA MOANA
Saturday   01/31
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
good

Waikiki
Saturday   01/31
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
smooth

Sandy Beach
Saturday   01/31
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate
good

Makapuu
Saturday   01/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades moderate
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 6-8 occ 10
Face: 10-15 occ 18
NE Trades moderate
bumpy

Honolua
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
NE Trades moderate
fair to good

Kihei
Saturday   01/31
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades moderate
slightly bumpy

Hana
Saturday   01/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades moderate
choppy

Lahaina
Saturday   01/31
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades light
good

Kauai

Big Island

Weather


Jan 30, 2015 8:30 PM HST

Synopsis
Low clouds and isolated showers associated with the remnants of a former frontal system linger over parts of the island chain tonight. Trade winds are expected to return to the aloha state later this weekend as a surface ridge builds north of the area. The trades will continue into early next week, with low clouds and showers mainly over windward and mauka areas. Starting Tuesday, the circulation around a broad surface low north of the islands will bring an extended period of gusty westerly winds and wet weather to the state. These unsettled weather conditions may continue through the end of next week.

Discussion
The tail end of a weakening north northeast to south southwest oriented frontal system is evident in satellite imagery just northeast of the Big Island. As a result, there are lingering low clouds and isolated showers over parts of the state, especially in the vicinity of the windward and southeastern Big Island. Radar reflectivity data appears to indicate the few showers that are falling are relatively light.

In addition to the former front, a weak surface ridge is nosing into the islands from the west northwest. The close proximity of these synoptic features is keeping winds across the islands light and variable tonight. In the upper levels above the state, water vapor imagery and the afternoon balloon soundings from Hilo and Lihue indicate the flow aloft is nearly zonal. The soundings also show relatively stable atmospheric conditions remain across the region.

The forecast models indicate the surface front will continue to dissipate northeast of the Big Island. They also show a surface ridge will build north of the area Saturday. As this occurs, the pressure gradient will increase across the islands, which will bring weak trades later this weekend. Relatively dry air will also be over the islands, and the trades will carry some low clouds and light showers mainly into windward and mauka sections of the islands.

The forecast guidance shows the brief period of trades will continue into early next week. However, the forecast becomes challenging after Monday. By Tuesday, another front will push down across the islands from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF models differ on the exact placement of the parent surface low associated with this front. However, both agree that westerly surface winds will dominate our weather by early Tuesday after the front passes through. Both models also indicate cloudy and wet weather will develop, especially over the smaller islands. The GFS model brings another well-defined front across the islands Wednesday night and Friday, while the ECMWF model has less-defined features moving near or north of the islands. Both models appear to show the wet weather continuing through the end of next week. However, the GFS shows an extended period of unusually strong westerly winds across the state as the broad surface low spins far north of the area. The ECMWF model shows somewhat weaker westerly winds, so we will need to monitor the future changes in the model output before we can be certain that they have converged on a realistic solution.

With some uncertainty remaining in the model solutions, the current forecast is a blend of the models. However, during time periods with significant differences in the guidance, the forecast has been trended towards the GFS solution. Further refinements will be needed as additional model runs are examined.

Finally, assuming there is an extended period of westerly winds, this wind direction is very unusual in the islands for more than a day or two. Note that winds from the west may produce local accelerations and strong gusts due to downsloping on the downwind sides of higher terrain, such as the east and northeast facing slopes of the Waianae and Koolau mountain ranges on Oahu. Should these unusually gusty conditions occur over a period of days, there may be potential for some structures and vegetation to be adversely impacted. Localized power outages are also a possibility, especially if the winds are accompanied by heavy rain. Anybody living in these potentially vulnerable locations should monitor future forecast updates for the potential of severe or damaging local wind effects.

Aviation
We expect predominantly VFR conditions at the terminals tonight. Lingering intermittent MVFR conditions are possible along windward slopes as low clouds cling to the mountains and extend offshore to the northeast. No airmets are currently in effect and none are anticipated at this time.

Marine
The current northwest swell continues to produce elevated surf along most north and some west facing shores of the smaller Hawaiian islands early this evening. The most recent observations from national data buoy center buoy number 51101 located northwest of Kauai indicates the swell height is 12 to 13 feet with a period of 12 to 13 seconds. Closer to the islands, the Waimea buoy readings were 8 to 9 feet with a period of 12 to 13 seconds. A slightly larger reinforcing north northwest swell is expected to reach buoy 51101 shortly after midnight HST Saturday morning. This larger swell will reach the smaller Hawaiian islands during the day Saturday, which will maintain elevated surf into the weekend. Note that if the swell is as large as expected, west facing shores of Oahu and Molokai may need to be added to the high surf advisory on Saturday. This north northwest swell will gradually fade by late Sunday.

In addition to high surf across parts of the state, the elevated swell has increased seas across portions of the Hawaiian coastal waters to the small craft advisory /sca/ threshold through Saturday night. This has required the issuance of a SCA for elevated seas for the waters surrounding Kauai, the Oahu windward waters, the Kaiwi Channel and the Maui county windward waters. Note that winds are currently forecast to remain below the SCA criteria through early next week.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 am HST Sunday for north and west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai, and for north facing shores of Oahu, Molokai and Maui.

Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Sunday for the waters surrounding Kauai, the Oahu windward waters, the Kaiwi Channel and the Maui county windward waters.





Small craft advisory through 600 pm Thursday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay.
Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

NPAC: 1/27/15
The Jet stream hovers 30-40N latitude (600-1200 miles north of us) and has a decent consolidation from 170E to 150W longitude or 1800 miles West of Hawaii to 600 miles East of us. By Thursday the Jet breaks up with a split off to our West with flows of the trough pointing our way… thus, the front/weather and Konas. By the weekend this feature lifts and NE trades return as the Jet once again begins to extend off Japan and reaching longitudes of Hawaii by Tuesday. This leads to higher chances of storm formation and closer proximity to Hawaii for more wintery WNW-NW surf.

Currently, Surf went fro 2-4’ to 4-6’ and juicy between 7am and 10am. We have a rising WNW building to 10’ by Wednesday from an East bound hurricane force Low last Friday off N. Japan (Hokkaido). The fetch was in the 300-320 band and lifted seas to 25’ tho’ nearly 2000 miles away. It hit the buoys with 20 second forerunners after midnight with the Bay seeing 22 sec. We expect the WNW to take over the recent event with 5-7+’ by the evening session and peak Wednesday at 8-10’ solid at spots like Sunset and Pipe.

Next: the storm weakened as it neared the 180 dateline Sunday the 25th crossing it Monday. Since this portion was closer by 600-800 miles to us we will see significant heights Wed. afternoon maybe over 10’ tho’ with shorter 15 seconds.

Next: A low comes down off the Aleutians on our side of the dateline Thursday-Saturday and hover its fetch for a long lasting NNW swell of 8-12’ for top reefs. It could feather on the 2nd reefs.

Next: by this weekend a large gyre sets up in the Gulf with Lows spinning within for a series of NNW-N swells. The first fetch moves down Sunday and veers East. Surf at 5-7’ from the NNW to N fills late morning Tuesday the 3rd with 14 seconds.

Last: early next week a gyre spins up off Japan with 2 Lows spawning within for a 4-6+ W-WNW swell Friday-Saturday the 6 and 7th of Feb. Shadowing will occur on this up to 295 from Ni’ihau and Kauai.
We may also see some 6’ NNW surf from a nearby source later Saturday the 7th and well keep an eye on this long ranger.

SPAC:
The zonal or west to east flowing Jet in far down off the Ross Ice shelf and tho’ Lows move along its track they’re too distant with fetches too short for anymore than background pulses of 14 seconds. Tho’ we see an equator bound flow Friday 1/30 the Low has marginal winds thus seas are too small to make more than 1’ in Hawaii after 5000 miles. There are a couple Lows early next week from Samoa but they track SE away from us and thus no surf is expected.
One low possibility comes Feb 4th as a storm comes up into NZ but it needs to move farther east if we’re to see surf. We’ll keep an eye out as models can change.

Windward:
Tiny 2’ trade swells into early Feb thanks to all the storm activity in the NPAC weakening and pushing Highs East. We have off and on small NE swell post all these frontal passages.









FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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