BIG SURF PICTURE 

Thursday 2/9/12

NPAC: Big wednesday hit easy 20': the Winter Jet is low, consolidated and stretching well past Hawaii; The Jet dipped right on top of us this week which is creating dramatic shift in weather, waves and winds; we're back to more normalcy as our NE winds are back with clear skies; 

Currently: A special storm kicked in Sunday tracking east from near the dateline 1200 miles to our NW in the 300-320 band; the captured fetch is much closer to us than the preceding systems nosing to under 300 miles out with 30' seas monday. Models showed us 12- 20' NW on outside reefs (Peahi  hit near 25') on Wednesday; surf was be disorganized due to wide directional spectrum and onshore North winds;  Condtions to be better Thursday and esp by Friday.

Last: A pair of Lows will be out there by next Friday-Saturday. One to our N and one near the dateline; neither will lead to anything close to the last couple Lows but plan for some above advsry increase of 10' 16 seconds offshore ...or 8-12' on the reefs this Sunday-Monday 12-13th.

SPAC: it's back to tiny but at least ultra smooth. Our SSW swell of 1.5' and 15 seconds or waist to occ. chest high at Bowls earlier this week is gone. Source was minor fetch to the NE of NZL at the end of January. Nothing worth mentioning in the next 7 day forecast period.

East or Windward: Trade swell is back for long haul  and N wrap too. High pressures allowed to do their thing as storms now produce swell from the usual 1500-2000 miles away.  Read daily OB’s or call 596-SURF.

FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

For more generic marine definitions click this link  http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

WW3 OUTPUT FORECAST& BUOY QUICK LINKS

359 AM HST FRI FEB 10 2012
SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TRADE
WINDS RETURN. CLOUDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER MOST
LEEWARD LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

DISCUSSION...
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN RISING STEADILY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND...IN RESPONSE...TRADE WINDS HAVE MADE THEIR RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS INCREASED PRESSURES AND HAD
BUMPED TRADE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO NORMAL TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR FALLING OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TURN ISLAND WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...AND DECREASE WINDS OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FLOW OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO OCCUR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...MOST PROMINENTLY ON KAUAI AND OAHU. THE LAND
BREEZES WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AT NIGHT WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW CARRYING COOLER AIR TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THURSDAY...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH MODERATE TRADE
WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTING ONLY
BRIEF SHOWERS AT WINDWARD LOCALES. VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUD CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LAYER
BETWEEN 040 AND 070.

TRADES HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT...TO THE POINT THAT AIRMET TANGO...
FOR LOW LEVEL TURB BELOW 070 TO THE SW AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS...WILL
BE IN EFFECT WITH THE NEXT ROUTINE AIRMET ISSUANCE.

MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL HAS MAINTAINED ITS ENERGY OVERNIGHT
AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY. THE
NEXT LARGE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FEET OR HIGHER. THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS..

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-KONA.

Satellite Animations: (Click Here)    Wind & Cloud Cover Models: (Click Here)     Weather Terms Index: (Click Here)

SNN CHIEF SURFING OFFICER: GARY KEWLEY

Your Exclusive 6:45am OBZ: and the  surf scene for Aloha Friday 2/10/12

Lite to moderate 10-20+ E-NE trades with super clear skies and cold.

Country: Down and dropping tho' much more manageable and cleaned up; still the periods are short for this size swell.  Buoy 101 is way down from the 18.5' ft @ 15s on Wednesday to 8' @ 11-13 seconds from NW; Sunset is 5-7' for the Sunset SUP Pro & Pipe 4-6' and packed once again thanks to the clean offshores. WEST:Down and dropping on the NW at 3-5' and smooth lite offshore.  TOWN: down to 0-1.5' from the SSW at Kaisers, Bowls, Beach Park etc with super clean straight offshores; Diamond Head: Down and holding: SSW 0-1.5' sets and fairly clean; SANDYS:  Down and holding  on the N wrap 1-2' with Trade swell mixing and decent side- offshores.  EAST: MAKAPU'U held 1-3'  on same mix of N swell and windswell with onshores from the ENE at 10-20...still but cold.

Surf News:
R.I.P. Sparky
photo: September 26, 2012

ROBERT RUSSELL SCHEUFELE AKA “SPARKY”

This well loved and admired man of 77 years, from Honolulu, quietly passed at Manoa Cottage. Sparky was a well known legendary long board shaper and an honorable member of the Honolulu Long Board Surfing Association.
Visitation: 12pm, this Sunday, 2/12 Service: 1pm  Nuuanu Memorial
Casual attire. No flowers. Mahalo.