Surf Summary & News Breaks
SNN CHIEF SURFING OFFICER: GARY KEWLEY
Your Exclusive 6:45am OBZ: and the surf scene for Aloha Friday 1/27/12
10am update
Volcom Pipe Pro off for today. There's so much insane BIG surf coming along with Trades that Volcom has the luzury of waiting. Look for day one in macking 8-12' Pipe Saturday.
Winds way down from Thursday: lite SSE and rotating winds and midmorning seabreezes have kicked in; Mostly clear with some voggy haze. Seabreezes will be gone tonight as trade pattern returns.
Country:Down and dropping on the NW at 2-3' at 12 seconds but a rising N swell should hit 4' later with 6' 10 seconds; Sunset has solid 3' sets and maybe a few slightly higher ones; same for Pipe too; super clean lite offshores early. Volcom Pipeline Pro OFF but likely to take both Sat and Sunday (Monday and Tuesday will be closed out) WEST: NW is down and dropping too at Makaha at 1-2+' and early glass but now onshore mushiness. TOWN:Holding ystrdy's SSE windswell at a mushy onshore 1-2' mostly with some plus' left over; Same for Diamond Head: at blown down 1-2' and some 2.5' (chest). SANDYS: 1-2' with a chance of 2.5' from Full Pt into Shorey on the N and SE mix and onshore. EAST: MAKAPU'U;Down but rising later from the N and remnant Trade swell at 1-2' and clean.
Surf News: Much Mahalos to Surfer, the Bar at Turtle Bay for Wednesday evening. Timmy Curran and other young local musical talent (plus our server) were on it!
Congrads to HIC Surf on their grand opening on Maui for their 10th store! Keep on Enjoying the Ride!
Volcom Pipe Pro Off today but likely to go all weekend.
Surf Report
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BIG SURF PICTURE
Friday 1/27/12
NPAC: the Jet is set up in a winter pattern (low, consolidated and stretching past the dateline) allowing for storms to be enhanced and steered to longitudes near Hawaii; its also affecting our winds and weather patterns with a cycle between lite variables/Konas to regular Trades.
Currently: The triple over head NW with 14 seconds peaked Wednesday to advsry levels 5-8+’ NW from a severe gale that spawned our side of the dateline just 1000 miles away Sunday/Monday and tracking quickly ENE into Alaska. The intensification of the last Low leads to 4’ N swell Friday; its a gale (35-40kt) fetch created by the aforementioned low as it move into the gulf; the storm’s winds pointing our way in the 350-360 band for a day.
Next: We're on track. An upgraded severe gale Storm far off Japan spawned Wednesday 1/25 tracking east with a captured fetch (read below) Wed-Thursday; it crossed the dateline 1200 miles to the west by Thursday with some 30+' seas and will bump us up to 8-12’ solid from the NW this Saturday noon; with Trades returning Friday nite so conditions will be perfect for Volcom.
Last: 3 major Upgrades on pair of Lows appear near the dateline Friday/Sunday with an east then ENE track up into the east Aleutians thru Sunday. They merge, occlude and grow to a huge severe gale to near hurricane surface Low with 35' seas with weather filling much of the WPAC as it slowly begins east; this leads to an Xtra large 10-15 occas. 18' sets on the outer reefs with 20 sec forerunners early Monday 1/30; the angle is' WNW peaking Monday but lasting over 10-15' Tuesday since the Low stalled. Big&Beautiful finish to twenty twleve's 1st month.
There's more a few days after this and the NPAC winter wave machine works its magic.
SPAC: Dying SSE wind swell from the Kona pattern plus some SSE from an more distant source but all was ruined by the onshores most the time. There's no sources worth claiming TFN.
East or Windward: We have 3' N wrap to best exposures. Our 2 windswell and trades are outta here till Saturday when trades return. We do get some N-NNE swell of maybe 3 or 4' this week to isolated reefs. The rotating pattern between trades and Konas or Variables will continue with the nearby tracking Lows. Such winter patterns mean occas. N swells to wrap in with the off and on wind swell. Ranges should remain in the 2-4’ range. Read daily OB’s or call 596-SURF.
FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
For more generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
WW3 OUTPUT FORECAST& BUOY QUICK LINKS
SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TRADE WINDS RETURNING
TONIGHT...AND STRENGTHENING THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY GENERATED SEA
BREEZES WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND
INTERIORS...WHILE CONVERGENCE BAND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON
WINDWARD TERRAIN AS TRADES BUILD AND VOLCANIC HAZE WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
A SLOWING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST WEST OF
KAUAI...WHILE AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS GRAZING PASS THE
NORTHERN END OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST AND WE CAN EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MORE
STABILITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERSION AROUND 8000 FEET AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AXIS OVER KAUAI
AND OAHU AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE RESULTING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING SINCE THE CONVERGENCE BANDS MOVED IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
YESTERDAY...BUT ARE NOW WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO WANE AND PUSH BACK WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
TRADE WINDS BUILD BACK IN.
THE LIGHT BACKGROUND WIND FLOW WILL ENABLE SEA BREEZES TO SET UP
TODAY OVER THE ISLANDS AND COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL INTERIOR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT THIS MORNING AND MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY FOR KAUAI. HOWEVER AS THE TRADES BUILD IN
TONIGHT THE MOISTURE WILL GET BLOWN BACK WESTWARD ONTO KAUAI TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHIFT IN WINDS WILL ALSO DIRECT THE
VOLCANIC HAZE OFF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IT WILL ALSO DIRECT
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER TO THE MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND TO FRESH LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE TRADES MAY EASE SLIGHTLY AROUND TUESDAY AS NORTH PACIFIC
WESTERLIES DIP TOWARDS LATITUDES NORTH OF THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. THIS
COULD PUSH A DISSIPATING FRONT INTO THE KAUAI AREA BY THURSDAY
Satellite Animations: (Click Here) Wind & Cloud Cover Models: (Click Here) Weather Terms Index: (Click Here)
