BIG SURF PICTURE 

Friday 1/27/12

NPAC: the Jet is set up in a winter pattern  (low, consolidated and stretching past the dateline) allowing for storms to be enhanced and steered to longitudes near Hawaii; its also affecting our winds and weather patterns with a cycle between lite variables/Konas to regular Trades.

Currently: The triple over head NW with 14 seconds peaked Wednesday to advsry levels  5-8+’ NW from a severe gale that spawned our side of the dateline just 1000 miles away Sunday/Monday and tracking quickly ENE into Alaska. The intensification of the last Low leads to  4’  N swell Friday; its a gale (35-40kt) fetch created by the aforementioned low as it move into the gulf; the storm’s winds pointing our way in the 350-360 band for a day.

Next: We're on track. An upgraded severe gale Storm far off Japan spawned Wednesday 1/25 tracking east with a captured fetch (read below) Wed-Thursday; it crossed the dateline 1200 miles to the west by Thursday with some 30+' seas and will bump us up to 8-12’ solid with some higher sets possible from the NW this Saturday around noon; with Trades returning Friday nite so conditions will be perfect for Volcom.

Last: 3 major Upgrades on  pair of Lows appear near the dateline Friday/Sunday with an east then ENE track up into the east Aleutians thru Sunday. They merge, occlude and grow to a huge severe  gale to near hurricane surface Low with 35' seas with weather filling much of the WPAC as it slowly begins east; this leads to an Xtra large 10-15' and even occas. 18' sets on the outer reefs with 20 sec forerunners early Monday 1/30; the angle is' WNW peaking Monday but lasting over 10-15' Tuesday since the Low stalled. Big&Beautiful finish to twenty twleve's 1st month.

There's more a few days after this and the NPAC winter wave machine works its magic.

SPAC: Dying SSE wind swell from the Kona pattern plus some SSE from an more distant source but all was ruined by the onshores most the time. There's no sources worth claiming TFN.

East or Windward: We have 3' N wrap to best exposures. Our 2 windswell and trades are outta here till Saturday when trades return. We do get some N-NNE swell of maybe 3 or 4' this week to isolated reefs. The rotating pattern between trades and Konas or Variables will continue with the nearby tracking Lows. Such winter patterns mean occas. N swells to wrap in with the off and on wind swell. Ranges should remain in the 2-4’ range. Read daily OB’s or call 596-SURF.

FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

For more generic marine definitions click this link  http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

WW3 OUTPUT FORECAST& BUOY QUICK LINKS

 AS TRADE WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEY WILL BRING A FEW 
 SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY ON THE DRY 
 SIDE OF USUAL. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH 
 THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN A WEAK FRONT MAY APPROACH CLOSE 
 ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS.

 .DISCUSSION...
 THE LAST VESTIGES OF A FRONT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE 
 STATE AS SURFACE RIDGING REBUILT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS REMAINED 
 QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENED INVERSION...BUT 
 PRESSURE TRENDS ARGUED STRONGLY THAT THE CALM WOULD NOT LAST... 
 ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF MOMENTUM VISIBLE ABOVE THE INVERSION IN 
 THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAD 
 DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY...AND LAND BREEZES KEPT MOST OF WHAT 
 REMAINED OFFSHORE...BUT SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUED ALONG LINES OF 
 CONVERGENCE IN THE PREVAILING FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
 
 ALOFT...WHILE SOME WEAKNESS WAS PRESENT TO THE SOUTHEAST...A BROAD 
 RIDGE EXPANDED OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. 
 GUIDANCE AGREED QUITE WELL THAT THIS RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE 
 ISLANDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
 
 AT THE SURFACE...ONCE THE FULLY REINSTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE 
 NORTH REBUILDS THE TRADE WINDS...SOME OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL IS LIKELY 
 ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES. HOWEVER...SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND MODEL 
 PREDICTIONS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER UPWIND WERE SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW 
 CLIMATOLOGY...AND SUBSIDENCE HAD LOWERED THE INVERSION QUITE A BIT 
 TOO...SO ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH MOST 
 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHALLOW TROUGHING 
 ALOFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE 
 NORTHEAST...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST 
 AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE 
 EAST...AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE 
 ISLANDS THEMSELVES...AND MODELS PREDICT THE FRONT TO LOSE MOST OF 
 ITS STRENGTH BEFORE EVEN APPROACHING THE STATE. THUS...THE MAIN 
 PRACTICAL EFFECT MAY BE LIMITED TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE TRADES 
 LATE IN THE WEEK.
 
 &&
 
 .MARINE...
 SURF FROM A NORTHWEST SWELL COULD APPROACH HEIGHTS OF 20 FEET ON 
 KAUAI BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 
 EXPOSED PARTS OF THE STATE. A LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL MAY PRODUCE 
 WARNING-LEVEL SURF ON MONDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES.

Satellite Animations: (Click Here)    Wind & Cloud Cover Models: (Click Here)     Weather Terms Index: (Click Here)

SNN CHIEF SURFING OFFICER: GARY KEWLEY

Your Exclusive 6:45am OBZ: and the surf scene for Aloha Saturday  1/28/12

1030am Newsbreak...

Volcom Pipe Pro Off as of 1030am today due to hazardous washed out  10-12 and 15' sets on the 2nd reef. Tomorrow will be 6-10' and perfect.  Online, Oceanic 250 or face to face.

Town has dropped from its 3' peak Friday. See Kaisers and Ala Moana Cams.

Trade Winds are back; Partly clear

Country:Way up and rising on the new NW at 8-12' occ 15' outside at 18 seconds over riding the 5' N swell with 10 seconds; Sunset has solid 8-12 occ 15' sets out there and same for Pipe too; super clean offshores.  Volcom Pipeline Pro will score Sunday (Monday,Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday will be closed out or too big.  WEST: Up and still rising at Makaha at 6-8+' and early glass. TOWN:  Down a pinch but holding 1-2 occ near 3';  Same for Diamond Head:  holding and better now 1-2' and some near 3' (chest/head).  SANDYS: 1-2' with some near 3' from Full Pt into Shorey on the N and SE mix and better now.  EAST: MAKAPU'U;Up on new N and remnant Trade swell at 1-2+' and lite onshores.

Surf News: Much Mahalos to Surfer, the Bar at Turtle Bay for Wednesday evening.  Timmy Curran and other young local musical talent (plus our server) were on it!

Congrads to HIC Surf on their grand opening on Maui for their 10th store! Keep on Enjoying the Ride!