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Exclusive Obs: special 7am update for Saturday powered by the Vans World Cup

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Another nice day on the way with sunshine and lite to moderate ENE Trades filling 10-20mph by ~10am. The Target Women's Pro at Honolua Bay holding period starts today! Vans Triple Crown's 2nd Jewel The Vans World Cup at Sunset starts Monday 11/24 on a 5-8+' NW but w/a frontal passage & brisk Northerly winds.

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North Shore:

Down and Holding all day from the recent reinforcing 13 sec WNW mixing with the old NNW with lully sets still of 2-3' at Sunset. Rocky pt. is fair at 2-3'. Pipe and Ali'i are fair 1-2+' all with light offshores and clear.
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West:

Down and Holding a WNW+NNW @ 0-1 occ 2' at Makaha with good, clean light offshores and clear.
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Town:

Down and Holding tiny 13 second SSW pushing up some 0-1 occ 2' waves/20 minutes. This Taz swell peaked a few days ago at only 1' of swell. It's good, clean lite-moderate offshores at Ala Moana-Kaisers & the Beach Park; Queens 0-1.5' and clean. Clear.
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Diamond Head:

Holding some SSE wind and occas SSW swell of 0-1-2' poor to fair side shore crumbly bump. Mostly clear.
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Sandy's:

Holding on mostly ENE windswell & tiny SSW swell with bumpy windy 1-2 occ 2.5' . From Full Pt, is biggest and 1/2 point and some peaks into Gas Chambers but still close to shore; partly clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and Holding on ENE trade swell with E trades 10-20 onshore chop @ 1-3' from the outside left to the middle; ; mostly cloudy for windward/mauka.

Weather

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 84°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 84°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph SSE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 80°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph N

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 79°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 80°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

North

Saturday
11/22
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
3' 13 sec; good offshore; clear
Sunday
11/23
NW
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
Rising
8' 15 sec 2pm
Monday
11/24
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Holding
8' 14-12 sec
Tuesday
11/25
NW
Haw: 5-7 occ +
Face: 8-12 occ +
Holding

Wednesday
11/26
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
7' 11 sec
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West

Saturday
11/22
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding
fairly smooth, clear
Sunday
11/23
NW
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+
Rising

Monday
11/24
NW
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+
Holding

Tuesday
11/25
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Holding

Wednesday
11/26
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

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South

Saturday
11/22
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding
1.5' 14 sec; fair sideoffshore; clear
Sunday
11/23
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping
.5' 14 sec
Monday
11/24
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
0.7' 14 sec
Tuesday
11/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
1' 14 sec
Wednesday
11/26
SE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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east

Saturday
11/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding
cloudy, bumpy
Sunday
11/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Monday
11/24
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Tuesday
11/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

Wednesday
11/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

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Current Swells:

Saturday   11/22
Primary: Holding  NW  2-3'
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  1-2+'
Third: Holding  S-SW  1 occ 2'
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   11/22
None
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   11/22
good with 10-20 mph E trades
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Diving Report:

Saturday   11/22
Good for south and west, fair/good for deeper North shore dives and fair for east dives

Oahu

SUNSET
Saturday   11/22
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
East Trades light-moderate
good

ROCKY POINT
Saturday   11/22
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Pipeline
Saturday   11/22
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
East Trades light-moderate
good

HALEIWA
Saturday   11/22
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
East Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

MAKAHA
Saturday   11/22
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Trades light-moderate
smooth

ALA MOANA
Saturday   11/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
East Trades light-moderate
fair

Waikiki
Saturday   11/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
East Trades light-moderate
smooth

Diamond Head
Saturday   11/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
East Trades moderate
bumpy

Sandy Beach
Saturday   11/22
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
East Trades light-moderate
fair

Makapuu
Saturday   11/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
East Trades moderate
choppy
fun

Maui

Hookipa
Saturday   11/22
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate
slightly bumpy

Honolua
Saturday   11/22
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate
fairly clean

Kihei
Saturday   11/22
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
sailin' and kitin'

Hana
Saturday   11/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Saturday   11/22
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Saturday   11/22
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
East Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Majors
Saturday   11/22
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Poipu
Saturday   11/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
East Trades moderate
fair to good

Kapaa
Saturday   11/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
East Trades moderate
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Saturday   11/22
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate
choppy

Kohala
Saturday   11/22
N
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Saturday   11/22
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate
smooth

Hilo
Saturday   11/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Kau
Saturday   11/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Weather

Nov 22, 2014 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Moderate trade winds will diminish today. Showers will be limited mainly to windward slopes, especially over the Big Island. A front will bring modest rain and stronger, northerly winds to most of the state from Sunday night into Tuesday. The winds then will weaken and become northeasterly again as the cool and dry air mass moistens gradually into Friday.

Discussion
Observations around the main Hawaiian islands reported winds gradually becoming more southeasterly, but still remaining strong enough to require extending the small craft advisory in places around the Big Island. Aloft, the ridge languishing across the state from west to east thinned out between shallow troughing to south, and a deepening long-wave trough to the north. A jet stream associated with the trough to the south brought cirrus layers from the ITCZ as far north as Maui county, and cloud cover was increased accordingly. However, the mid-level ridge remained strong enough to limit the inversion to near its usual height.

Lower cloud cover consisted mainly of generally stable clouds. Various measures of precipitable water depicted a relatively dry air mass upwind of most of the state, excepting only south slopes of the Big Island. Rain gauges reported little accumulation through the night. On the other hand, radar detected enough shower activity over the water so that the current pop grids for later today nonetheless appeared plausible given the predicted breakdown of the ridge aloft.

Guidance still largely agreed that the deepening long-wave trough aloft to the north will start to displace the mid-level ridge toward the east, finally supporting the approach at the surface of the front currently crossing 30°N near 170°W. As the surface ridge retreats to the southeast ahead of the front, the trade winds will diminish and become increasingly southeasterly.

The front itself should reach Kauai by Sunday night, but solution consensus predicted the supporting mid-level trough to focus mainly to the east of the state. Thus, most development along the front should remain northeast of the islands, leaving only a fairly shallow boundary to move down the state from Sunday night into Tuesday. Some rain will accompany the front, mainly over the smaller islands. The Big Island more likely will experience a less organized increase in showers from the frontal remnants moving ashore along northeast slopes on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Moderate to strong northerly winds in the cooler and drier air mass behind the front may be more significant than the front itself.

From Wednesday into the latter half of the week, the subtropical ridge will reestablish itself north of the state gradually, returning local winds to a more familiar northeasterly direction, though wind speeds will drop off significantly until the ridge shifts far enough north. The cool and dry air mass will modify in place, allowing windward showers to increase again with time.

Marine
Although wind direction around Maui and Hawaii counties became more southeasterly, speeds did not diminish as quickly as expected earlier, except in the Pailolo channel and Maalaea Bay, where Maui blocked the wind flow. Thus, the small craft advisory was extended through the day today for the Alenuihaha channel and waters south through west of the Big Island. Wind speeds should start to diminish this evening, but will strengthen again behind the front early next week, likely reaching the threshold for an advisory again.

A series of northwest swells will arrive during the next several days. The largest surf is expected between Sunday and Tuesday, when heights may exceed advisory levels at times. Trade winds will continue to produce short-period choppy surf along east-facing shores.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.








Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

11/18/14 Tuesday
NPAC
The Jet Stream wind current 30,000’ up has a zonal trough off Japan that also tracks quickly east all week. This steers storms fast from west to east as the Jet extends all the way to the west coast. By Saturday there’s a split in the Jet near the dateline with more energy staring off Japan again as the Jet drops in latitude. So we should be looking a little better for the long haul.
Recent- Currently: We have a peaking 8-10’ NNW this afternoon with brisk side shore NE trades. This swell comes from 2 fetches. One was up near the Aleutians last Thur-Friday and though the winds were stronger the Low was more distant than the 2nd source which really kicked up the surf due to close proximity of under 1000 miles and 20’ seas Saturday. It’ll drop fast Tuesday as close-shorter period events often do.
Next: A couple of storms close together race east in the zonal Jet this past weekend. Most the swell is off to our NE but we’ll still get some 2-4+ NW waves Wed. @ 14 seconds.

Next: Storm #2 spawned Sunday with up to 20’ seas but stayed further away. Watch for 3-5+’ NW surf Thursday.

Next: A storm forms near the date racing east building by Thursday to our North. We miss most its power but WW3 projects 7’ swell @ 15 sec Sunday which would refract/shoal on country reefs up 8’ minimum. I believe it’s being overcalled. So go with 50/50 for now.

Next: Friday another fast moving Low pressure area is 1500 miles to our N but the area of storminess is broad. We should see energy added to the prior episode holding waves in the 5-8’ range Monday.

Next: Another Low producing 20’ seas forms west of the dateline this weekend and with a much better SE track moving our way Sat-Sunday. If all goes well it could keep the surf 6-8’ with 14 seconds Tuesday.

Last: yet another eastbound Low is nearing and crossing the dateline Monday the 24th. WW3 hints of 6’ 15 seconds Friday which seems delayed by a day or two. Long range forecasts are subject to greater changes.


SPAC:
The Jet : We’re still getting semi lucky with background swells well past mid Nov. Currently, the winds are broken with no potential for sea surface winds. But by Wed. we get a bend NNE tho’ it hugs NZL’s west coast before heading right over the Islands. We go quite for about 3-4 days. Then day 7 we get a bit of troughing on the East coast of NZL. So what we see happening are plenty 2’ swells from the SW to SSW when it could be flat to one.

Recent-current: tiny tiny the past several days but buoys popped Monday with 1’ 15 seconds on the Taz fetch from last Tuesday the 11th. Surf picked up Monday and will be very inconsistently 2’ for top zones into Thursday. Fiji cranked on this storm but for us there’s too many obstacles in the way (Fiji, Samoa and hey, even NZL).

Next: Another Taz Low Tuesday the 18th slams into NZL and it’s not likely more than thigh surf @ 15 sec will be felt locally Thursday the 25th.

Last: Friday the 21st shows a Low moving East under the southern Tip of NZL. This is so far out its tough to claim but we’ll go ahead with a 2’ SSW Saturday the 29th.

Windward side: Recently we’ve had Small back ground 1-2’ East swell with some 2’ N mixing in from recent country swells. Surf will ramping up Wednesday thanks to the High NNE of us strengthening for a day with winds up to 30mph. Surf should hit 2-3’ and subside into this weekend. The Jet drops this weekend allowing storms to get closer and cut trades down and therefore windswell will be at a minimum.

Tropics: No activity in the Tropics.






FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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