Surf Summary & News Breaks
SNN CHIEF SURFING OFFICER: GARY KEWLEY
Your Exclusive 6:45am OBZ: and the surf scene for Aloha Friday 2/3/12
E to NE Trades light to moderate early with clear skies leeward and cold 65 for the warm blooded.
Country: Up and rising on the new 6-8+ NW-NNW(326); buoys are 6-8' 12-14 seconds; not the best shape at both Sunset and Pipe but smooth offshores. Pipe needs the West and sunset needs time to heal the morning sickness. WEST: Makaha up and rising with smooth 3-6' and likely bigger later with glassiness and lining up down the middle; TOWN: Holding the tiny thight high SSW angle. As of now its 0-1.5 max and smooth; we could see off and on waist high sets here and there through out the day. Diamond Head: holding SSE 0-1.5' possible occas weak 2' sets and mushy,cleaned up but cold (its still keepin the die hard dawn patrol out of water; SANDYS: holding 1-2' and pretty clean from Full Pt into Shorey on the wind and SE mix. EAST: MAKAPU'U: holding on weak tiny Trade swell at 0-1.5 right on the shore with a chance of 2' later with lite choppy onshores.
Surf News:Our thoughts and prayers are going out to Big wave charger Mel Kinney who suffered a heart attack Thursday up at Sunset. Please send yours too. Mahalo.
NORTH SHORE, Oahu - (Feb. 1st, 2012) "A hollywood script" (Dave Riddle) The final day of competition at the 2012 Volcom Pipe Pro ended in a spectacular showdown in the last 10-seconds of the 35-minute final with John Florence taking 1st place with a buzzer-beating 9.93 Backdoor barrel. His last wave, together with his earlier perfect 10-point ride, put his combined heat score at 19.93 out of a possible 20 to edge out former Pipe Pro Champion Jamie O'Brien in 2nd, Kai Barger in 3rd and Nate Yeomans in 4th.
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BIG SURF PICTURE
Thursday 2/2/12
NPAC: Same story: the Winter Jet is still set up low, consolidated and stretching past Hawaii; The Jet dips right on top of us next week which will create dramatic shift in weather, waves and winds; storms are enhanced and steered in this large upper air current; our winds and weather patterns continue to cycle between trades and lite variables/Konas; right now we're in a lite trade regime till variables this weekend then konas Monday with 18' NW swells.
Currently: Our beauty is down to 4' now. The storm responsible for this week's epic surf was huge with some hurricane force winds and 45' seas. It appear near the dateline last Friday/Sunday with an east then ENE track up into the east Aleutians thru Sunday. The Low occluded (spun in place) and grew to filling much of the WPAC; Since the storm's fetch kept pointing our way for nearly 2 days and traveled near 2000 miles to get here, it declined much slower than most swells; The Pipe Pro got in on her magic.
Next: We should see some minor 5' NW reinforcement underneath the fading WNW late Thursday-Friday; the source for this energy is from a fetch on the SW flank of the same storm above.
Next: A complex low associated with the big one reached the dateline Monday nite tracking past us Tuesday nite. This is a much smaller and fast east tracking Low with some 45kts will be leading to 8+' NNW Thursday evening peaking Friday as the angle veers more N-NNW.
Next: yet another fast tracking Low pops near the dateline Wednesday and will add some 5' N swell Saturday as well.
Next: Wednesday 2/1 a low spawns right off Japans east coast in the 290-310 band but quickly moves ENE and by Sat 2/4 its up in the 300-335band; the good news is that it builds some storm force or 50kt gales with a captured or following fetch in the 320-330 band only 1500 miles away. Seas should reach over 30' and our waves should be 10-15 maybe 18' with 16-20 seconds (thnks to the high wind speeds) on Monday 2/6. The issue for surfing will be the SW konas.
Last: yet another storm kicks in Sunday tracking east from the dateline 1200 miles to our NW in the 300-320 band; the fetch is much closer to us than the preceding systems nosing to under 600 miles out with 30' seas. Models hint at 15 maybe 18' disorganized NW around Wed. 2/8; WW3 often run hot or overcall such scenarios; a few more days to refine the call. But very likely warnings and wild conditions, unlike the preceding few swells.
SPAC: Looks like this is all we'll get for the day. Not much but there is alittle tiny 1' open ocean but long period 16 sec SSW in the waist (praying for chest high range late Thursday into Saturday from a low off the NZL east coast at the end of last week. More minor storm activity could bring the same Monday 2/6 but dont count on it.
East or Windward: Trade swell stays weak as we approach end of the week. Winds will be iffy and going variable this weekend and offshore Konas Monday thanks to another front crossing us. Overall itll be down to 2' North and tiny windswell. Read daily OB’s or call 596-SURF.
FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
For more generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
WW3 OUTPUT FORECAST& BUOY QUICK LINKS
SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TODAY...LEAVING LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WILL PUSH ON DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...BRINGING CLOUDS...MODERATELY STRONG WINDS...AND SOME
RAIN.
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS...STOPPING MORE OR LESS DIRECTLY OVER THE
ISLANDS. FOR LACK OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE TRADE
WINDS WILL CEASE. ALTHOUGH LOCAL CIRCULATIONS WILL BECOME DOMINANT
IN PLACES...RELATIVELY WEAK WINTER INSOLATION MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH
OF A SEA BREEZE. WITH SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...CLOUD FORMATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESSED.
EVEN SO...SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO MIGHT OCCUR
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON...IF ONLY GUIDANCE DID NOT PREDICT SUCH AN
EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS. IT IS TRICKY TO FORECAST CONDITIONS SO FAR
FROM CLIMATOLOGY...BUT IN THIS CASE THE PICTURE REALLY DOES LOOK
VERY DRY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...POWERFUL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL START TO ERODE THE SHELF-LIKE RIDGING OVER
THE STATE...AND A MODERATELY STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE TOWARD THE ISLANDS...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL START TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND CLOUD COVER
WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY. GUIDANCE ALSO STARTS TO
DISAGREE SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW SOON THE FRONT MAY REACH
OAHU...BUT A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH A POWERFUL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE...IS EXPECTED TO REINVIGORATE THE FRONT ENOUGH SO THAT
IT WILL PRESS ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE ARCHIPELAGO...REACHING THE
BIG ISLAND BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND SURGE OF THE FRONT MAY
BRING MODERATELY STRONG...AND NOTICEABLY COOL...NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE STATE.
THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT PREFRONTAL ACCUMULATION SIGNIFICANTLY.
RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THE FRONT HAS CONVERGED BY THAT POINT.
THE NEXT LARGE SWELL WILL HIT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A
RATHER DISORGANIZED RAW NORTHWEST SWELL AROUND MID-WEEK THAT COULD
BE EXTREMELY LARGE. CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL INCLUDE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND MIXED PERIODS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY WILL ACCOMPANY THE
LARGE SWELLS.
ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
Satellite Animations: (Click Here) Wind & Cloud Cover Models: (Click Here) Weather Terms Index: (Click Here)
SNN CHIEF SURFING OFFICER: GARY KEWLEY
Your Exclusive 6:45am OBZ: and the surf scene for Aloha Friday 2/3/12
E to NE Trades light to moderate early with clear skies leeward and cold 65 for the warm blooded.
Country: Up and rising on the new 6-8+ NW-NNW(326); buoys are 6-8' 12-14 seconds; not the best shape at both Sunset and Pipe but smooth offshores. Pipe needs the West and sunset needs time to heal the morning sickness. WEST: Makaha up and rising with smooth 3-6' and likely bigger later with glassiness and lining up down the middle; TOWN: Holding the tiny thight high SSW angle. As of now its 0-1.5 max and smooth; we could see off and on waist high sets here and there through out the day. Diamond Head: holding SSE 0-1.5' possible occas weak 2' sets and mushy,cleaned up but cold (its still keepin the die hard dawn patrol out of water; SANDYS: holding 1-2' and pretty clean from Full Pt into Shorey on the wind and SE mix. EAST: MAKAPU'U: holding on weak tiny Trade swell at 0-1.5 right on the shore with a chance of 2' later with lite choppy onshores.
Surf News:Our thoughts and prayers are going out to Big wave charger Mel Kinney who suffered a heart attack Thursday up at Sunset. Please send yours too. Mahalo.
NORTH SHORE, Oahu - (Feb. 1st, 2012) "A hollywood script" (Dave Riddle) The final day of competition at the 2012 Volcom Pipe Pro ended in a spectacular showdown in the last 10-seconds of the 35-minute final with John Florence taking 1st place with a buzzer-beating 9.93 Backdoor barrel. His last wave, together with his earlier perfect 10-point ride, put his combined heat score at 19.93 out of a possible 20 to edge out former Pipe Pro Champion Jamie O'Brien in 2nd, Kai Barger in 3rd and Nate Yeomans in 4th.
.RESULTS
