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Exclusive Obs: special 2pm update for Tuesday 11/25 powered by the Vans World Cup

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Much improved light to moderate NE winds cleaning up the waves and weather. The Target Women's Pro at Honolua Bay is cranking now with clean 3-5' sets from the NNW! The Vans Triple Crown's 2nd Jewel The Vans World Cup at Sunset is ON is challenging, bumpy 5-7' Sunset for day one!

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North Shore:

Up and holding from a 12 sec NNW with semi bumpy surf at 5-7' at Sunset and 4-6+' for Rocky pt. and Pipe and 3-6' at Chuns-Ali'i. Clearing.
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West:

Up and holding on the NNW @ a clean brisk offshore 3-5' at Makaha with clear weather.
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Town:

Down and Holding tiny 11 second SSW pushing up some semi bumpy 0-1.5' maybe a chance of barely occ 2' waves/20 minutes at Bowls, Beach Park, Queens. Good offshores. fairly cloudy.
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Diamond Head:

Down from Monday's pulse. Today it's some SSE+SSW swell of 0-1 barely 2' and good and smooth. Fairly cloudy,
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Sandy's:

Up and Holding on the N wrap and some ENE swell & tiny SSW swell with semi fair 1-2' occ 3' sets from Full Pt,, 1/2 point and a couple peaks into Gas Chambers but still breaking close to shore and slamming; Fairly cloudy,
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East Makapu'u:

Up and Holding on North and some ENE trade swell with onshore bumpiness @ 2 -3' across the bay; ; cloudy and cold early.

Weather

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 82°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 84°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 84°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 84°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
28mph ENE

North

Tuesday
11/25
N-NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Holding
8' 12 sec; sideshore; clearing
Wednesday
11/26
N-NW
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Dropping
7' 11 sec; sideoff
Thursday
11/27
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Rising
6' 14 sec NNE
Friday
11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising
6' 14 sec NNE
Saturday
11/29
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Dropping
5' 13 sec
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West

Tuesday
11/25
WNW+NNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Holding
clean offshore, clear
Wednesday
11/26
N-NW
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Dropping

Thursday
11/27
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising Later

Friday
11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising

Saturday
11/29
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping

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South

Tuesday
11/25
SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising Later
1' 14 sec; clean, semi cloudy
Wednesday
11/26
SE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Thursday
11/27
SE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
1' 14 sec
Friday
11/28
SE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Saturday
11/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

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east

Tuesday
11/25
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising
bumpy. cloudy
Wednesday
11/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Thursday
11/27
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Rising

Friday
11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Rising

Saturday
11/29
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Holding

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Current Swells:

Tuesday   11/25
Primary: Holding  WNW+NNW  5-7'
Secondary: Holding  ENE+N  2-3'
Third: Rising Later  SW+SSW  0-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   11/25
High surf for N and West and Small Craft for Channels
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   11/25
Good with 10-25mph NE trades
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   11/25
Good for south and fair-good for deeper west, poor-fair for deeper North shore dives and for east dives

Oahu

SUNSET
Tuesday   11/25
N-NW
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

ROCKY POINT
Tuesday   11/25
N-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Pipeline
Tuesday   11/25
N-NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

HALEIWA
Tuesday   11/25
N-NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

MAKAHA
Tuesday   11/25
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

ALA MOANA
Tuesday   11/25
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Waikiki
Tuesday   11/25
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Diamond Head
Tuesday   11/25
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate
good

Sandy Beach
Tuesday   11/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Makapuu
Tuesday   11/25
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Tuesday   11/25
N-NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
NE Trades fresh
bumpy

Honolua
Tuesday   11/25
N-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good to excellent

Kihei
Tuesday   11/25
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Hana
Tuesday   11/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Tuesday   11/25
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Tuesday   11/25
N-NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Majors
Tuesday   11/25
N-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Poipu
Tuesday   11/25
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Kapaa
Tuesday   11/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Tuesday   11/25
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Tuesday   11/25
N
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kona
Tuesday   11/25
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades moderate
good

Hilo
Tuesday   11/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kau
Tuesday   11/25
SSE+SSW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Weather

Nov 25, 2014 7:00 AM HST

Update
The forecast package has been updated for some adjustments to especially the windward districts of Maui county and the Big Island for today and tonight where the cloud cover and pops were increased.

Synopsis
High pressure will move north of the state today through Wednesday, bringing fresh trade winds along with cooler and drier conditions. Another stronger high pressure cell will build north of the state from Thursday into the weekend, with fresh to strong trade winds prevailing over the islands, and showers focused mainly across windward and mauka areas.

Discussion
Radar detects very little shower activity across the state, however rain gauges and surface obs show that some windward areas have continued to receive measurable rainfall during the night. This activity is very shallow and mostly not being seen by radar, as low level moisture is pushed against the island terrain by north/northeast winds. The front which passed through the islands on Monday now appears to have dissipated south of the Big Island, but considerable stratocu continues to linger across the state. At the surface, a 1021 mb high is centered about 700 miles northwest of Kauai and is building to the north of the state behind the front. Aloft, a deep mid/upper trough is lifting to the north and east along 150°W, with an upstream ridge building east of the international dateline. The 12Z soundings show low level moisture and northerly flow beneath strengthening inversions based between 6000 and 7500 feet. Pwats ranged from 1.17 inches at Hilo to a very dry 0.87 inches at Lihue. Mimic-tpw satellite imagery shows an even drier airmass spreading southward into the western and central parts of the state.

Low level flow will veer to the northeast today, as surface high pressure moves north of the state. Lingering windward shower activity should mostly end by this afternoon across the smaller islands as the airmass dries out even more and the inversion continues to lower. Slightly deeper moisture will probably linger across the windward Big Island, where isolated/scattered light showers will remain possible through the day.

A quick moving cold front passing well north of the area will cause trade winds to slacken a bit across the state tonight into Wednesday, although locally breezy conditions will still likely exist. A stronger surface high is then forecast to build slowly eastward to the north of the state between 30°N and 40°N from Wednesday night into the weekend. Breezy conditions will become more widespread over land areas during this time as fresh to strong trade winds prevail. Showers will be mainly confined to windward and mauka areas through the period, and most common during the night and early morning hours. Blended model data keeps pwats at or slightly below 1 inch through Wednesday, with a slight recovery of low level moisture thereafter. Model pwats remain near or below the 25th percentile for this time of year through the next several days, so would expect rainfall amounts to remain mostly on the light side even over windward areas. Long range models do not show any indications of another frontal passage across the main Hawaiian islands through early next week.

Aviation
Quite a bit of low clouds lingering in the island vicinity will continue to affect the area this morning, especially for north and east. There are some lower bases low clouds embedded in the cloud field. Expect VFR condition should prevail over much of the site, though windward sites may experience brief MVFR ceiling condition. Air mass is rather dry and stable so precipitation, if any, will be light.

Gusty north winds will become moderate northeast trade winds across the islands later today as a surface high pressure ridge builds north of the islands. Believe winds may not be strong enough to bring low level turb affecting imt S thru W areas of the mtns at this time, though the possibility still exists.

Marine
The overnight ascat pass missed most of the Hawaiian coastal waters, but did estimate winds near 20 knots around Kauai. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds combined with a lingering north-northwest swell will bring small craft advisory /sca/ conditions to most of the marine zones through today. This swell will subside tonight and Wednesday, but fresh to locally strong trade winds will likely maintain SCA conditions across the normally windy zones around Maui county and the Big Island. A stronger high building north of the state should increase trade winds further from Wednesday night through the end of the week, with SCA conditions forecast to spread across the kaiwi and Kauai channels as well.

Seas continue to run near 10 feet at Waimea bay buoy and 12 feet at buoy 51101, although the wave energy is spread across a broad spectrum with some short period wind waves mixed in. Wavewatch data indicates that the current north-northwest swell will remain high enough to likely maintain advisory level surf through today across north facing shores of all smaller islands, and for west facing shores of Kauai county. This swell will subside tonight into Wednesday. A new north-northeast swell is expected to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday, and combined with wind driven short-period northeast/east swell could push surf near or above advisory levels across some east facing shores. Choppy surf conditions due to strong trade winds appear likely to continue on east facing shores into the weekend.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for north and west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai and for north facing shores of Oahu Molokai and Maui.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST Wednesday for Kaiwi Channel, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Kauai northwest waters, Kauai windward waters, Kauai leeward waters, Kauai channel, Oahu windward waters, Maui county windward waters, Big Island windward waters.








Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

11/18/14 Tuesday
NPAC
The Jet Stream wind current 30,000’ up has a zonal trough off Japan that also tracks quickly east all week. This steers storms fast from west to east as the Jet extends all the way to the west coast. By Saturday there’s a split in the Jet near the dateline with more energy staring off Japan again as the Jet drops in latitude. So we should be looking a little better for the long haul.
Recent- Currently: We have a peaking 8-10’ NNW this afternoon with brisk side shore NE trades. This swell comes from 2 fetches. One was up near the Aleutians last Thur-Friday and though the winds were stronger the Low was more distant than the 2nd source which really kicked up the surf due to close proximity of under 1000 miles and 20’ seas Saturday. It’ll drop fast Tuesday as close-shorter period events often do.
Next: A couple of storms close together race east in the zonal Jet this past weekend. Most the swell is off to our NE but we’ll still get some 2-4+ NW waves Wed. @ 14 seconds.

Next: Storm #2 spawned Sunday with up to 20’ seas but stayed further away. Watch for 3-5+’ NW surf Thursday.

Next: A storm forms near the date racing east building by Thursday to our North. We miss most its power but WW3 projects 7’ swell @ 15 sec Sunday which would refract/shoal on country reefs up 8’ minimum. I believe it’s being overcalled. So go with 50/50 for now.

Next: Friday another fast moving Low pressure area is 1500 miles to our N but the area of storminess is broad. We should see energy added to the prior episode holding waves in the 5-8’ range Monday.

Next: Another Low producing 20’ seas forms west of the dateline this weekend and with a much better SE track moving our way Sat-Sunday. If all goes well it could keep the surf 6-8’ with 14 seconds Tuesday.

Last: yet another eastbound Low is nearing and crossing the dateline Monday the 24th. WW3 hints of 6’ 15 seconds Friday which seems delayed by a day or two. Long range forecasts are subject to greater changes.


SPAC:
The Jet : We’re still getting semi lucky with background swells well past mid Nov. Currently, the winds are broken with no potential for sea surface winds. But by Wed. we get a bend NNE tho’ it hugs NZL’s west coast before heading right over the Islands. We go quite for about 3-4 days. Then day 7 we get a bit of troughing on the East coast of NZL. So what we see happening are plenty 2’ swells from the SW to SSW when it could be flat to one.

Recent-current: tiny tiny the past several days but buoys popped Monday with 1’ 15 seconds on the Taz fetch from last Tuesday the 11th. Surf picked up Monday and will be very inconsistently 2’ for top zones into Thursday. Fiji cranked on this storm but for us there’s too many obstacles in the way (Fiji, Samoa and hey, even NZL).

Next: Another Taz Low Tuesday the 18th slams into NZL and it’s not likely more than thigh surf @ 15 sec will be felt locally Thursday the 25th.

Last: Friday the 21st shows a Low moving East under the southern Tip of NZL. This is so far out its tough to claim but we’ll go ahead with a 2’ SSW Saturday the 29th.

Windward side: Recently we’ve had Small back ground 1-2’ East swell with some 2’ N mixing in from recent country swells. Surf will ramping up Wednesday thanks to the High NNE of us strengthening for a day with winds up to 30mph. Surf should hit 2-3’ and subside into this weekend. The Jet drops this weekend allowing storms to get closer and cut trades down and therefore windswell will be at a minimum.

Tropics: No activity in the Tropics.






FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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