Surf Summary & News Breaks sponsored by the VANS Triple Crown of Surfing
Your exclusive SNN Observations for Saturday 12/7/13
Few clouds with a light E-SE'erly flow. New N-NW swell filling in.
NORTH: New N-NW swell filling in throughout the day, waves are currently in the 4-6' range, and picking up to 6-8' later. Smooth & clean conditions in the am thanks to the light SE breeze. West: Makaha Up on the new N-NW, and 2-4+; glassy & smooth early; later its variable bumpiness. Town Side: Ala Moana, Kaisers, Kewalos are holding 0-1' on a 11 sec S; clear, smooth, calm. Diamond Head: Holding at 0-1' with lite am bumpiness and onshores later. SANDYS: Holding on the East swell and pinch of S at 1-2' occ + with good smooth conditions & just a light breeze. Waves from Half Point to the shorepound and good sand bars. East: Makapu'u: Holding on the E swell at 1-2'+ on the left; nice lines.
The Pipe Masters starts Sunday Dec 8-20 for the World Title Throw Down, Show Down! The forecast say GO on day one of the holding period with a 6-8' NNW at 14 seconds. Go HERE
Call the official SNN hotline 808-596-SURF daily to get status (on, off or standby).
Details on the Vans Triple Crown. GO HERE
Go HERE for the full VTC schedule.
Congrats to Zeke Lau - Winner of the Vans World Cup of Surfing at Sunset Beach!
Congratulations to Michel Bourez - winner of the Reef Hawaiian Pro at Ali'i Beach.
Quote of the week: "Surfing was the key to his life" Kaipo on Buttons
THE LATEST IN DEPTH VIDEO PRESENTATION OF HAWAII'S WAVES,WINDS & WEATHER FROM SURF NEWS NETWORK & SPONSORED BY HAWAIIAN SOUTH SHORE
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Dec 07, 2013 4:00 AM HST
Winds will veer out of the southeast today, leading to another round of sea breezes with afternoon clouds and interior showers. Deep moisture will move up from the south late tonight and will affect mainly the Big Island Sunday and Monday. The rest of the state can expect a dominant land and sea breeze pattern producing afternoon clouds and showers, though there will be a chance of passing showers moving up from the south at any time. Expect increasing humidity and volcanic haze statewide. Trade winds will rebuild Tuesday and Wednesday.
DiscussionModerate trades in place now will rapidly veer out of the southeast today as a strong front moving well northwest of the state pushes a surface ridge down toward the islands. Modest windward shower activity this morning will give way to a convective pattern this afternoon as sea breezes develop. Expect afternoon clouds and a chance of showers for interior and mauka areas. Midlevel ridging will continue to produce stable conditions over the smaller islands with some weakening over and south of the Big Island. The overnight soundings show this trend already underway with the inversion up near 9000 ft at Hilo. As a result, there could be a few heavier showers on the Big Island slopes this afternoon.
An increase in clouds and showers is expected mainly over the Big Island on Sunday and Monday. An upper level low currently centered 800 miles south of Oahu is enhancing showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ about 375 miles south of the Big Island. The combination an amplifying ridge at the surface and aloft along 140°W and deep troughing northwest of the state will cause deep moisture to be drawn northward over the eastern end of the island chain as early as late tonight. Midlevel ridging will be eroded with 500 mb temps dropping as low as -9C, probably not cold and unstable enough for heavy showers and thunderstorms. The Big Island can expect layered clouds with showers focused on southeast slopes.
Across the western end of the state, expect gentle south to southeast winds to bring spotty showers, increased humidity, and volcanic haze up from the south. Daytime sea breezes will also produce afternoon clouds and a chance of showers over interior and mauka sections.
Trade winds will make a return on Tuesday as the front to the north weakens and lifts out and the layered moisture near the Big Island dissipates. A following high passing about 800 miles north of the islands will drive the return of the trades, and building ridging aloft will produce increasingly stable conditions. Thus, a return to a typical windward and mauka shower pattern is expected.
In the long range, the latest runs of the GFS and and ECMWF are backing off on predictions of a return to southeasterly flow on Thursday. The current forecast still calls for the southeasterly winds to redevelop, but we have trended back to trade winds by Friday.
BIG SURF PICTURE Thursday 12/5/13
NPAC Same scene the last couple weeks. The Jet Stream gets elongated off Japan with a NNE tilt to the dateline. It dips toward us from the dateline all the way to our North leading to the drop in trades and SE winds, a front, the NW swell etc...The Low has pushed the High to the east and its now centered between us and the west coast. The jet keeps up its extension off Japan with off and on deepening over the next 5 days. then it dissapates hinting of a break in swells from Dec 10th. however, another dip is scheduled for Thursday 12/12 leading to weather, N swells and another disrruption of Trades.
Wind and weather: A front approaching from the northwest this evening will weaken to a shear line near the Kauai Channel on Friday. High pressure will develop northwest of Kauai late Sunday as the remnants of the shear line move away to the north.Winds veered to the southeast and variables with more of the same seabreezy pattern through early next week. Details HERE.
Currently: NW waves are pumping and peaking today with perfect SE offshores and ranging 5-7'. The source was a 45-55kt ESE bound Low last Sunday-Monday. But the fetch was short lived limiting size and period.
Next: a new Low popped near the dateline Monday with 25-35kts about 1000 miles away Wednesday. We should get a 4-6' NW push Friday afternoon.
Next: An upgrade on this Low as it strenthens to storm force Wed-thur and moved NNE then stalling friday. Watch for a rise Saturday midday to 6-10' from a more NNW angle. The fetch is long since the system occluded, plus the fetch got to within 900 miles. So we expect solid 8-10 maybe 12' NNW to peak Sunday and only alittle less Monday. A decent chance of a pulse to almost 6-8' tuesday from the same long Lows final fetch.
Next: A weak low near the central Aleutians tracks South sunday Monday and should bring us up to 2-4' thursday the 12th.
Last: Not a great outlook for fat WNW's for Pipe until last days but.... A compact Low spawns near the dateline Wed 12/11 and by Thursday tracks South with 25' seas and a final ESE track coming to only 300 miles away. We could see a N Friday in the high range but not all model concur. so lets wait and see.
Last Last: slight chance of a 10' WNW on 12/19 Thursday. But we must get closer.
The Jet actually took a nice NNE track up toward HI Monday the 25th and supported a Low to follow the same track. The 15 second SSW from this source will only reach 2' and maybe near 3' filling Tuesday and peaking Wednesday on the 4th of December. See below.
Current: SSW of waist high or barely 2'. The tiny background 2' SSW fills Tuesday Dec 3 from a gale Low tracking NE 2 Monday-Tuesday ago. No big deal but it does keep town rideable in Dec.
LAst: long range model fantasy hint of a better 15 second SSW swell filling Monday the 9th. It could get solid 2-3' for 2 days. A Low comes up ENE off the NZL east coast monday Dec 2nd. This is an 'out of season' swell we'd be happy with even during the Summer. Lets wait and see if models and actual winds confirm this Monday.
East Shores: pure upstream trade swell. The Storms passing close to HI are disrupting the usual ongoing trade regime. But the High to the NE is still producing from a distance waves up to 2-3'. This eases hereon.
Tropical: No storms. Thnk God.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|