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Waves, Winds, Weather by Cholos Happy Hour 715am Sunday

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Heavy thick clouds & rain all day. Winds are moderate to fresh to strong ENE trades. New NW way up and SE swell dropped. Every advsry + brown water.

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North Shore:

Up and rising on the 17 second NW and sets easy 6-8' Sunset and Pipe and 5-7' at Chuns & Ali'i. Peak reaches near 10'.
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West:

Makaha is up and rising with sloppy 4-6' NW and seeing the 3' SE swell mix with funky gusty trades.
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Town:

Ala Moana & Beach Park are down from yesterday and dropping on the short period SE Ana swell at 2-3 occ higher'... ugly, disorganized.
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Diamond Head:

Down and dropping from the SE Ana swell at a poor side onshore crumbly 2-3' occas 4' over head on sets and peak drops.
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Sandy's:

Down and dropping on the SE on Ana swell with poor bumpy gusty side shores E trades: Sandy's is serving up 2-3' and higher.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and Holding on a North and holding the choppy gusty onshore East swell at 2-3' maybe higher breakin' mostly inside and on the Keiki's side.

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph E

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 86°F

Mostly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph E

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph E

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

North

Monday
10/20
N-NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
Holding
hurricane Ana leaves, light E trades
Tuesday
10/21
N
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping

Wednesday
10/22
N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
+ 2' west at 9 sec
Thursday
10/23
N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping
+ 3' west
Friday
10/24
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
14 secconds
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West

Monday
10/20
N-NW
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Dropping
+ 3' SE
Tuesday
10/21
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Wednesday
10/22
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
+ Tiny West
Thursday
10/23
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising
+ Tiny West
Friday
10/24
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

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South

Monday
10/20
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising
1' 16 sec SSW
Tuesday
10/21
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Wednesday
10/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising Evening
new 1' 15 sec South
Thursday
10/23
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Friday
10/24
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

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east

Monday
10/20
E
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising
Hurricane Ana leaves to the North
Tuesday
10/21
N-NE
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Rising

Wednesday
10/22
NE
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Holding

Thursday
10/23
N-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Friday
10/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

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Current Swells:

Monday   10/20
Primary: Dropping  NW  5-8'
Secondary: Dropping  SE  1-3'
Third: Holding  E-NE  1-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   10/20
possible Floods, T Storms, Hi Surf for NW, brown water etc
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Sailing Report:

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Diving Report:

Monday   10/20
poor with lite trades and left overs from ANA.

Oahu

Sandy Beach
Monday   10/20
S-SE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
rainy, stormy

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Oct 17, 2014 5:30 AM HST

Update
Included latest information on location and intensity of tropical storm Ana.
Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Tropical storm watch for Big Island.

Flash flood watch from noon today through Sunday afternoon for Big Island.

Tropical storm warning for Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.

Tropical storm watch for Maui county leeward waters, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island windward waters.

Synopsis
Tropical storm Ana will approach the islands today. The impacts of Ana will begin over the Big Island this afternoon with increasing winds, seas and showers, then spreading across the rest of the island chain later tonight through Sunday. Stay well informed with the latest forecast and bulletins from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

Discussion
An upper level ridge just to the NE of the main Hawaiian islands and sfc high pressure centered far NE of the aloha state will help in keeping a weak to moderate trade wind regime across the island chain today. Latest mimic/model moisture analyses data still depicts a swath of drier air over the W half of the island chain, but increasing moisture ahead of approaching tropical storm Ana will gradually push from S to N across the island chain during the weekend.

Latest tropical storm Ana bulletin shows the center of the storm located at 15.7°N 154.2°W, or about 280 miles SSE of Hilo, moving WNW at 14 mph. If Ana remains close to the current forecast track, it will bring increasing shower coverage, potential for heavy rain and chance of thunderstorms starting over the Big Island later today, then gradually spreading across the rest of the island chain later tonight and through Sun.

As Ana moves closer to the islands, pressure gradients should become tighter between the cyclone and the high pressure ridges to the NE. This synoptic setup should bring stronger winds from the E, especially across Oahu and Kauai around the Sat and Sat night timeframe. Also, it is very important to keep in mind that any small shift in the track and position of Ana could drastically change the final outcome of the situation.

People in Hawaii should remain well informed with the latest bulletins and forecasts which are available at www.weather.gov/hawaii under headers WTPA25 PHFO and TCMCP5. Public advisories under headers WTPA35 PHFO and TCPCP5, and discussions under headers WTPA45 PHFO and TCDCP5.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Big Island and the southern coastal waters surrounding Maui county. A flash flood watch is also in effect for the Big Island starting this afternoon and continuing through Sun. Both these watches could be expanded to include more islands/coastal zones later today as the scenario with Ana unfolds. You can follow all the latest updates regarding changes to the watch/warning configuration by looking at the tropical storm Ana local statement also available at www.weather.gov/hawaii.

Once the threat of Ana is over and the cyclone finally moves NW of the islands by Mon, expect general flow across the area to turn from the s/se for much of next week. But with plenty of uncertainty about the possible final outcome of Ana, confidence remains fairly low regarding the forecast solution for the long range, especially over the W half of the island chain. Stay tuned.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail today with periods of MVFR conditions possible in passing showers. The outer bands of clouds and showers associated with Ana are already moving into the Big Island and Maui and should reach Oahu and Kauai sometime this evening. Airmet for mtn obsc currently in effect for windward Big Island and eastern Maui may need to be extended to E and NE exposures of remaining islands this evening.

Marine
Tropical storm Ana will begin affecting the southern coastal waters of the Big Island today, bringing an increase in E flow, showers and chance of thunderstorms.

The large swell from Ana will begin reaching the Big Island today, and build through tonight. Seas up to 25 feet are expected later today as Ana reaches the closest point to the Big Island. Expect the greatest swell heights across the southeast Big Island zone. Everyone should monitor the latest forecasts from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for information on Ana.

Otherwise only small to moderate swells are expected to affect west and north facing shores. A larger northwest swell is then expected over the weekend.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

BIG SURF PICTURE
10/14/14 Tuesday

Saturday update. Building surf from the SE Cat1 hurricane Ana. Hit the Big Is by Friday night and will bring huge stormy East and 5-8' (possibly higher' local scale) SE swell to Big Is with up to 35 and higher kt gusts but the exact speed, swell size and angle will be veering have to be refined.

NPAC
The Jet stream has a deep long looping trough from off the Kurils up near the Aleutians and a dip SE near the east Aleutians. There are plenty broad weak flows off to our NE to the west coast. The Jet straightens out and breaks up by Friday with a deep trough dip SE near the central Aleutians and esp by Saturday winds increase to 160kts carrying a large Low our way for a big NNW Sunday. All in all more energy is flowing up there 30,000 feet.
Recent- Currently: We’ve been on the decline since out fat 8-12’ NW came last Fri-Sunday. It was 3’ Tuesday with even some south winds and clouds to give some atmosphere.
Next: We get some sideband NNE swell Wednesday from a Low in the Gulf and it’s fetch to the west last weekend into Tuesday but most it’s energy is off to the east. Surf should reach 2-3’ Wednesday with just 9 seconds and only for Laniakea and Kammies etc.
Next: The above low strengthened Monday-Tuesday with a long fetch again near the east Aleutians sending most its swell to Cali. The 25-35kts still should produce some sideband swell with 9 seconds and surf hts reaching easy 4’ maybe 5’ Thursday for those isolated spots.
Next: A complex Low spins up near the dateline Sunday-Monday and tracks NE as it goes away Tuesday night. Not much fetch from this source but still, we could get some 2-3’ WNW mixing with the N above.
Next: Former Typhoon Vong Fong which started toward the PI last Tuesday the 7th moved slowly NW into Taiwan and terrorizing the region through the weekend. It ran right over Japan and became a gender bender (warm core low to cold core). It then got absorbed into the mid level Jet stream trough today and begins a track leading to large surf. Wed-Thursday the 45kt and 35’ seas track ESE from up near the Aleutians hitting the dateline Thursday and passes to our N as it broadens. The fetch got close to only 1200 mile away by the weekend. (less distance means less decay of ocean swell means bigger surf). Long period forerunners hit late Saturday 3’ 20 sec from the first phase of the storm. The swells will rise to near 10’ with shorter but still healthy 15 seconds Sunday noonish. This should equate to 8-12’ NW surf Sunday midday to evening with a slight drop to 6-10’ Monday as it veers NNW to N and fades.
Last: We go into some down time from NW sources until a Kamchatka Low quickly tracks E-ESE Sunday-Tuesday crossing the dateline Monday up near the central Aleutians. By Tuesday we’ve had enough fetch to lend short 11 second support to the dropping prior swell Wednesday afternoon to 4-6’ from the NNW.

SPAC:
The Jet down under is broken, weak and zonal most of the 7 days forecast; a sign of the times as we head into Austral summer. Things will be quieting down and only exceptions will change the outlook.
Recent-current: We’ve been at slightly above summer averages so at least that’s good news. We’ve seen some 14 second SSW surf reaching solid 3’ today fading some Wednesday. It came from a gale Low east of NZL a week ago. Note south swells often take longer to build and last longer due to distance traveled. Longer periods stretch out as they move faster than the swells ‘average’ periods. Thus long periods get here 1st but are inconsistent. By the same token on the back end of the event, the shorter 13 seconds will be smaller but more consistent in the later stages.
Next: A weak low spins off far off NZL last Friday-Sat.. We ‘might’ see some background 2’ South this weekend.
Last: Long shot of SSW popping the buoy with 16 seconds late Monday the 20th reaching 2.5’ 15 sec Wednesday 22nd and if lucky this would mean some 2-3’ SSW waves to ride for a couple days. Long range outlooks are blurry.
Windward side: tiny 2’ back ground Trade swell until Friday when TS Simon and higher trades lift the surf to 1-3’ all weekend. Minor variations all next week.
Tropics: See the above discussion for former Super Typhoon Vong Fong which brings some isolated 2’ West surf Wed-Friday. And helps bring some Big NNW surf this weekend as a transformed extra tropical Low.

FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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