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Exclusive Obs: 7am update Tuesday Jan 27, 2015 powered by Hanks Tax 853-1170.

Wamer, lighter ENE trades today at 5-15 mph and a dropping NW plus a new WNW. Town down. Front hits Kauai Thursday morning with South Konas filling.

None for Tuesday. Advsry level WNW Wed-Thursday.
Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the more NNW now at 2-3+ at Sunset and 2-3' sets Pipe with clean offshores. Rising later on the New WNW as NW buoy is 4' 19 sec as of midnight, Waimea is 1' 22 sec. forerunners. Expect 5-7' later afternoon. Clear.
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West:

Down and dropping on NW now at 1-2' sets at Makaha all inside now with smooth lite offshores. New WNW filling to 3-5' late afternoon. Clear.
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Town:

Down and holding on the generic background S-SSW at 0-1 barely occas 2 with nice offshores at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area at 0-1.5'. Clear.
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Diamond Head:

Down and holding on the background South at 0-1-2' with decently smooth side offshores. Mostly clear (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Holding on a combo swell with N and S at 0-1-2' right near shore and out at the Points with light E NE sideoffshores and fair. Party clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Down a notch and Holding on an East and N swell at 1-2' maybe a slightly higher sets off and on and light E- NE trades & semi bumpy. Semi Cloudy.

Weather

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph SSE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 84°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph WSW

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 82°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph NW

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph NE

E-NE
5-15

Light/Var
5-10
to seabreeze
Light/Var
5-10
southerly flow later
Light/Var
5-15
southerly Kona flow
NE
5-15

North

Tuesday
01/27
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising
4' 19 sec; 5-7' surf afternoon
Wednesday
01/28
W-NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Rising
9' 15 sec
Thursday
01/29
W-NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Dropping
9' 14 sec
Friday
01/30
W-NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Dropping
7' 12 sec
Saturday
01/31
NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
Rising Early
11' 15 sec; some near 15' 2nd reefs
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West

Tuesday
01/27
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
Clear, clean offshores; 3-5' afternoon
Wednesday
01/28
W-NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Holding

Thursday
01/29
W-NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Dropping

Friday
01/30
W-NW
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Dropping

Saturday
01/31
NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Rising Early

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South

Tuesday
01/27
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
2' later; clean, clear
Wednesday
01/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Thursday
01/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Friday
01/30
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Saturday
01/31
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

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east

Tuesday
01/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Wednesday
01/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
01/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Friday
01/30
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Saturday
01/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Tuesday   01/27
Primary: Dropping  NW  2-3+
Secondary: Rising  W-NW  5-7' around 5pm
Third: Holding  E-NE  0-1-2+'
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   01/27
None
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   01/27
Fair to Good with 5-15 mph ENE trades
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   01/27
good for South and West dives. Fair for East. Fair for North Shores. WNW rising making poor diving by afternoon.

Oahu

SUNSET
Tuesday   01/27
N-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades light-moderate
fair to good
5-7' ~~5pm
ROCKY POINT
Tuesday   01/27
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Pipeline
Tuesday   01/27
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades light-moderate
fair to good
lulls
HALEIWA
Tuesday   01/27
N-NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

MAKAHA
Tuesday   01/27
WNW+NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades light
good

ALA MOANA
Tuesday   01/27
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
semi-clean

Waikiki
Tuesday   01/27
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
smooth

Diamond Head
Tuesday   01/27
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Sandy Beach
Tuesday   01/27
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
fair

Makapuu
Tuesday   01/27
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades light-moderate
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Tuesday   01/27
N-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate
bumpy

Honolua
Tuesday   01/27
N-NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
smooth
clean inside Bay
Kihei
Tuesday   01/27
W
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate
fairly clean

Hana
Tuesday   01/27
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate
choppy

Lahaina
Tuesday   01/27
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades light
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Tuesday   01/27
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades light-moderate
good
3-5' later
Majors
Tuesday   01/27
WNW+NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Poipu
Tuesday   01/27
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
semi-clean

Kapaa
Tuesday   01/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades light-moderate
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Tuesday   01/27
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Kohala
Tuesday   01/27
W
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Tuesday   01/27
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades light
smooth

Hilo
Tuesday   01/27
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Kau
Tuesday   01/27
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate
bumpy

Weather

Jan 27, 2015 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis...A front 480 miles northwest of Kauai is moving southeast at 15 mph.
Light trade winds will become more southerly as a weak front approaches the state through Wednesday. From Thursday into Friday, this front will spread light rain and weak northwest winds across the state. Light trade winds will return, and conditions will dry, slowly over the weekend. A stronger front may approach the islands early next week.

Discussion
Wind speeds dropped off rather quickly overnight around the state, but cloud motions upwind suggested that the trade winds might pick up a little by this afternoon, though remaining below the criteria for a small craft advisory. The longer trend should move toward even lighter winds through mid-week.

Aloft, broad ridging prevailed over the state, crushing the inversion down to below its usual height. The air mass remained quite dry, but stable stratocumuli persisting upwind moved ashore locally along windward slopes. These stable clouds produced little rain, limited almost exclusively to windward slopes.

Guidance predicted only gradual change today and tonight, but by Wednesday winds will turn southerly ahead of a feeble front approaching from the northwest. This feature should advance southeast across the state from Thursday into Friday. Consensus predicted little water vapor to accompany the front, and the broad mid-level trough expanding southeast over the islands at the same time will provide most of its support to the north of the islands. Thus, relatively little rain will accompany the front, and northwest winds behind it should be fairly light as well. Light trade winds will recover gradually over the weekend, but lingering moisture will continue to support showers, perhaps producing more rain than the front itself.

By Monday, most solutions predicted a second, stronger front to approach from the northwest, turning winds southerly again ahead of it. Guidance disagreed somewhat about how much support this feature will receive from aloft, but generally portrayed much more abundant water vapor accompanying it than the first front. More recent guidance also agreed better in predicting this second front to move southeast down the archipelago starting Monday night.

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail across the state today. Windward sections of all islands may see isolated MVFR ceilings at times through the day, and Lanai could see periods of MVFR cigs this afternoon.

Airmet tango for low level turbulence remains in effect to the south through west of higher terrain on Maui and the Big Island. Models suggest that trade wind flow will continue to weaken today, and this airmet will probably be dropped sometime this morning.

Airmet sierra for mountain obscuration has been dropped, with ceilings running generally above 4000 feet across windward areas.

Marine
Wind speeds over the coastal waters diminished substantially overnight, and so the small craft advisory has been cancelled.

The next incoming northwest swell likely will produce advisory-level surf heights along north- and west-facing shores from tonight through Thursday. Another large northwest swell is expected to arrive Friday, and then continue through Sunday. In addition to the surf, these swells threatened to build seas to above the threshold for a small craft advisory.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.








Small craft advisory through 600 pm Thursday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay.
Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

NPAC: 1/27/15
The Jet stream hovers 30-40N latitude (600-1200 miles north of us) and has a decent consolidation from 170E to 150W longitude or 1800 miles West of Hawaii to 600 miles East of us. By Thursday the Jet breaks up with a split off to our West with flows of the trough pointing our way… thus, the front/weather and Konas. By the weekend this feature lifts and NE trades return as the Jet once again begins to extend off Japan and reaching longitudes of Hawaii by Tuesday. This leads to higher chances of storm formation and closer proximity to Hawaii for more wintery WNW-NW surf.

Currently, Surf went fro 2-4’ to 4-6’ and juicy between 7am and 10am. We have a rising WNW building to 10’ by Wednesday from an East bound hurricane force Low last Friday off N. Japan (Hokkaido). The fetch was in the 300-320 band and lifted seas to 25’ tho’ nearly 2000 miles away. It hit the buoys with 20 second forerunners after midnight with the Bay seeing 22 sec. We expect the WNW to take over the recent event with 5-7+’ by the evening session and peak Wednesday at 8-10’ solid at spots like Sunset and Pipe.

Next: the storm weakened as it neared the 180 dateline Sunday the 25th crossing it Monday. Since this portion was closer by 600-800 miles to us we will see significant heights Wed. afternoon maybe over 10’ tho’ with shorter 15 seconds.

Next: A low comes down off the Aleutians on our side of the dateline Thursday-Saturday and hover its fetch for a long lasting NNW swell of 8-12’ for top reefs. It could feather on the 2nd reefs.

Next: by this weekend a large gyre sets up in the Gulf with Lows spinning within for a series of NNW-N swells. The first fetch moves down Sunday and veers East. Surf at 5-7’ from the NNW to N fills late morning Tuesday the 3rd with 14 seconds.

Last: early next week a gyre spins up off Japan with 2 Lows spawning within for a 4-6+ W-WNW swell Friday-Saturday the 6 and 7th of Feb. Shadowing will occur on this up to 295 from Ni’ihau and Kauai.
We may also see some 6’ NNW surf from a nearby source later Saturday the 7th and well keep an eye on this long ranger.

SPAC:
The zonal or west to east flowing Jet in far down off the Ross Ice shelf and tho’ Lows move along its track they’re too distant with fetches too short for anymore than background pulses of 14 seconds. Tho’ we see an equator bound flow Friday 1/30 the Low has marginal winds thus seas are too small to make more than 1’ in Hawaii after 5000 miles. There are a couple Lows early next week from Samoa but they track SE away from us and thus no surf is expected.
One low possibility comes Feb 4th as a storm comes up into NZ but it needs to move farther east if we’re to see surf. We’ll keep an eye out as models can change.

Windward:
Tiny 2’ trade swells into early Feb thanks to all the storm activity in the NPAC weakening and pushing Highs East. We have off and on small NE swell post all these frontal passages.









FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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