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Exclusive Obs: 7am update for Monday 12/22 powered by Cholos Homestyle

12-20' NW swell with victory at sea conditions due to gusty NE winds from front. Surf 'round the compass. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

Hi Surf Warnings for all NW shores & small craft advsys due to large open ocean swells and high NE winds.

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North Shore:

Up and rising on the 17 second WNW; it's 12-18+' at Sunset and Pipe and out of control, no takers. Waimea and outer reefs no good. Poor weather and waves.
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West:

Up and rising on the Big WNW swell at Makaha with 8-12' and higher sets with stiff offshores and good; partly clear.
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Town:

Up and rising on WNW wrap and holding on a 13 second with surf at 2-3' at Bowls, Kaisers, Beach Park, Queens; partly clear.
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Diamond Head:

Up and Rising WNW wrap and the 2-3' SSW swell with good smooth waves and partly clear.
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Sandy's:

Holding on a mix of West, East trade wind plus SSE; with fairly clean 2-3+' to Gas Chambers. It's 1-2+' at Full Pt,, 1/2 point too; fairly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and rising on a NE trade wind swell at a bumpy 2-3+' more sets on the outside later from the left to middle and smaller 3' on the far right side with decent sandbars; fairly cloudy.

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 80°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NNE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 78°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph NNE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 81°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 83°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph NW

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 83°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph N

North

Monday
12/22
W-NW
Haw: 12-18+
Face: 18-30+
Holding
10-12' 17 sec; choppy sideshore, cloudy
Tuesday
12/23
NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
Dropping Slowly
10' 14 sec
Wednesday
12/24
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Dropping

Thursday
12/25
NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping

Friday
12/26
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising Later
3.5' 14 sec
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West

Monday
12/22
W-NW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
Dropping
stiff offshore, cloudy
Tuesday
12/23
NW
Haw: 8-10
Face: 12-18
Dropping

Wednesday
12/24
NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
Dropping

Thursday
12/25
NW SSW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping

Friday
12/26
NW SSW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising

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South

Monday
12/22
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping
2' 14 sec; WNW wrap
Tuesday
12/23
S
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
+ NW wrap
Wednesday
12/24
S
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Thursday
12/25
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
1' 14 sec
Friday
12/26
S-SE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding
1' 12 sec
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east

Monday
12/22
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising
+ NW wrap; choppy, cloudy
Tuesday
12/23
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding
NW wrap
Wednesday
12/24
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Thursday
12/25
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Friday
12/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

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Current Swells:

Monday   12/22
Primary: Holding  W-NW  12-20' waves (12' swell, 17 sec)
Secondary: Rising  NE  2-3+'
Third: Dropping  S-SW  1-3'
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   12/22
Hi Surf Warnings, Small Craft Advsy for large open ocean swell
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Sailing Report:

Monday   12/22
Fair to Good except weather; NE trades picking up 15-30mph
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Diving Report:

Monday   12/22
Fair to Good for South and for isolated deep East; poor for W and N + adjacent shores with LARGE WNW

Oahu

SUNSET
Monday   12/22
W-NW
Haw: 12-20
Face: 18-35
NE Trades moderate-strong
CLOSED OUT
Poor:Waimea and Outer Reefs Only
ROCKY POINT
Monday   12/22
W-NW
Haw: 12-20
Face: 18-35
NE Trades moderate-strong
CLOSED OUT

Pipeline
Monday   12/22
W-NW
Haw: 12-20
Face: 18-35
NE Trades fresh-strong
CLOSED OUT

HALEIWA
Monday   12/22
W-NW
Haw: 10-15+
Face: 15-25+
NE Trades moderate-strong
CLOSED OUT

MAKAHA
Monday   12/22
W-NW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
NE Trades fresh
fair to good

ALA MOANA
Monday   12/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades fresh-strong
good
3' SSW and 3' WNW
Waikiki
Monday   12/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good
3' SSW and 4' WNW
Diamond Head
Monday   12/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good
3' SSW and 3' WNW
Sandy Beach
Monday   12/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Makapuu
Monday   12/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Winds Funky
fair to good

Maui

Hookipa
Monday   12/22
NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sloppy and choppy
Peahi 15-25'
Honolua
Monday   12/22
NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
NE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good
Bigger later
Kihei
Monday   12/22
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Hana
Monday   12/22
E-NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Lahaina
Monday   12/22
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Monday   12/22
W-NW
Haw: 10-15+
Face: 15-25+
NE Trades moderate-strong
poor

Majors
Monday   12/22
W-NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
NE Trades moderate-strong
poor to fair

Poipu
Monday   12/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Kapaa
Monday   12/22
NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-strong
rainy, stormy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Monday   12/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Kohala
Monday   12/22
W
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kona
Monday   12/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light-moderate
smooth
SSW+WNW
Hilo
Monday   12/22
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Kau
Monday   12/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Weather

Dec 22, 2014 3:40 AM HST

Synopsis
A weakening cold front boundary will move across Oahu and stall near Maui today. Showers will affect most of the smaller islands with slight chances of thunderstorms through this afternoon. Best chances for rain remain over mountain and windward areas, with localized heavy downpours possible. Then the arrival of an upper level trough will combine with the formation of a sfc low near the Big Island to bring potential for periods of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms. A flash flood watch will be in effect from tonight through Wednesday. For the second half of the week, the forecast will depend on the final outcome of the aforementioned low near the Big Island.

Discussion
There has been a significant change in forecast philosophy for the next 48 hours as the global models have shifted to a more aggressive weather scenario.

At 330 am HST, data from the doppler radars around Hawaii showed lines of showers with localized downpours moving across Kauai and the Kauai channel waters, where a weak cold front is now located. A band of clouds marking the leading edge of the front can be observed on latest satellite IR imagery. Showers are also developing along the windward and north coastline of Oahu. Although the overall movement of the cold front boundary is towards the SE, individual cloud elements inside the frontal cloud band are streaming from NE to SW across Kauai county, the Kauai channel and Oahu.

An upper level trough is also nearing the aloha state from the NW. Shower coverage will continue to steadily increase today as the frontal boundary pushes through the W half of the island chain. Model solutions bring the decaying boundary through Oahu, and stalling it near Maui around noon, producing widespread showers over Kauai, Oahu and Maui along with slight chances of thunderstorms. Rainfall accumulations should remain moderate today, although localized heavy downpours can not be ruled out.

For tonight and into Tue, there has been a dramatic shift in the global models. Both GFS and ECMWF have reached a remarkable agreement in a short period of time, with the latest solutions depicting the development of a sfc trough/low structure over the islands. This feature will be supported by the upper trough, which seems to push its axis right along the island chain in the most recent model runs. This new synoptic setup will tap into the abundant tropical moisture far S of the islands and bring a much more vertically saturated profile across the aloha state than previously anticipated. The current model depiction of the low resembles a Kona low forming just to the WNW of the Big Island. Needless to say, with this new development, the whole forecast has been modified to reflect a much more wetter and aggressive scenario for the next 48 hours as the moisture S of the islands is advected across the state by the low. Widespread showers, periods of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms will bring potential for flash flooding, starting tonight. Highest chances of rain reside over mountain and windward areas. A flash flood watch will be in effect starting tonight and continuing through Wednesday afternoon for all the islands.

In addition, temps around 500 mb will drop to around -12 to -16 celsius and deeper moisture will move over the Big Island, with snow very likely over the Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea summits tonight and again on Tue night. Snow accumulations of around 2 inches are possible, even higher with thunderstorms. A winter storm watch has been has been issued for the Big Island summits starting this evening and continuing through Wed.

Winds will be mostly variable through Mon morning, then becoming stronger and veering to the N and NW today over the W edge of the island chain behind the fropa. However, it has become rather difficult determining the final outcome for the winds over the E half of the aloha state as the overall location, structure and intensity of the advertised low/trough complex on Tue and beyond remain highly uncertain at this time. For now, will keep a blend of model solutions with weaker SE winds around the Big Island and Maui frequently shifting direction through the next couple of days.

The uncertainty in the forecast models extends into the second half of the week, for which the previous forecast trend has been for the most part kept in place with NE winds and a drying trend gradually returning across the area. Surely the long range forecast will be adjusted, depending on the final outcome of the aforementioned low/trough complex. Stay tuned.

Aviation
Clouds and showers associated with a weakening and stalling cold front are affecting Kauai and to a lesser extent Oahu, where airmet sierra is posted for mountain obscuration. Airmet tango is posted for low level turb over Kauai, due to gusty N winds that will continue at least into tonight. Widespread MVFR vis/cig in SHRA can be expected in association with the frontal cloud band, with the possibility of IFR vis/cig in areas of heavier showers. Vfr conditions will prevail over Maui and the Big Island into tonight, with the frontal cloud band expected to be relatively slow in its southeastward progression across the island chain. Later today into Tuesday however, a developing low aloft will bring the statewide possibility of thunderstorms and their associated aviation hazards, including icing, turbulence, wind shear and IFR conditions.

Marine
A large northwest swell is keeping warning level surf over north and west facing shores of the smaller islands and west facing shores of the Big Island until 6 am HST Tuesday. This swell will also generate small craft advisory conditions over most coastal waters due to hazardous seas.

Strong north to northeast winds are expected to move over the area starting later today over the northern waters. But it is not clear if small craft advisory conditions will be experienced again beyond Tuesday morning. Therefore, the small craft advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 am HST Tuesday and reissued later on if conditions warrant it.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Flash flood watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon for all Hawaii islands.

High surf warning until 6 am HST Tuesday for Niihau, Kauai windward, Kauai leeward, Waianae coast, Oahu north shore, Oahu Koolau, olomana, Molokai, Maui windward west, Maui central valley, windward Haleakala, Kona, Kohala.

Winter storm watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon for Big Island summits.

Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,.






Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

12/21/14 Sunday
NPAC
The Wintery Jet Stream wind currents 30,000’ up is positioned for ongoing big winter gale support, thus our big swells. Jet level Winds off Japan see some 200kt winds but breaks up before the dateline with a big split just west of us. The Jet comes together to our N and all the way to the West coast bring Massive surf to Mavericks etc. By Tuesday the Jets breaks up some and garners a N to S tilt pointing right at us. By Thursday Christmas Day our Jet is cleaner and organized again straight off Japan to the dateline at 30-35N lat. Winds build to near 200kts as the Jet moves its deepest trough further East past the dateline and then dips again with it’s nose touching Hawaii. Sunday-Momday her winds back down to 170kts tho’ elongated and consolidated to Longitudes of Hawaii.

Currently, The water’s stirring and rising with long 20 sec period WNW swells over ride recent swells, creeping into the lines ups and surfers nerves. The size rise delay is from the 285-295 angle shadow of Ni’ihau and Kauai. Still surf is only 3-5+ at 11am with NW buoy at 8’ 17sec and Waimea 2.5’ 20s. Expect some 10’ sets in 4 hours. 15’ by evening. 20’ tonight.
The source is twofold. 1st, a powerful Low off Japan last Tuesday marches east with a very westerly fetch getting to the dateline only 1200 away Friday. This is what we see today. 2nd, this major swell (biggest of the season by far) is followed by a massive low gyre filling the NPAC Friday tracked east slowly with a wide fetch from 310-320 nearing to within 1000 miles. This portion wont have shadowing thus Monday should still see 20’ surf as it declines to 15+ Tuesday.
Next: models show a NNE swell rising Monday-Wednesday peaking 9’ 8 sec with surf getting to 3-5’ for select reefs.
Next: A wintery storm spawns near the Kurils Tuesday with gales remaining 2000 miles off due to a block in the Jet Tuesday-Thursday. WW3 hints of some 4’ 16 sec forerunners Friday the the 26th. And a peak of 8’ 15 sec swell Saturday the 27th refracting reefs seeing 8-10’ NW surf and a slow drop Sunday onward. This model output is likely running hot.

Next: We go into a quite period relatively speaking the end of 2014 and start of 2015. But, long rangers see 10’ surf on Saturday the 3rd of January. Keep you posted.



SPAC
The Jet: down under it’s not looking good for surface gale development. One Jet trough is tilting to the Ice shelf with a loop up but no storm spawns within this week. After this the Jet shuts down seeing winds go zonal and even drop to 100 kts.

Recent-current: We have our 2nd summer like SSW hitting head high Saturday for an early Christmas present. The cause was a 45kt gale SE of NZ Dec 12-14 which shot most its swell SE of us. This event will peak Sunday and fade forever Monday on. Dec was a winner for Town.

Last: Maybe tiny back ground swell Friday the 2nd of Jan from a Low tracking SE near Tahiti this toward the end of week. 1’ 11 sec stuff which leads to thigh high, get wet sessions.

Windward side: Surfs been average with lotsa 2-3’ days and plenty ‘wrap’ days. This week we get above average with some 4’ NNE swell and a front-shearline creating some cold brisk 30mph NE winds Monday-Tuesday. Surf to last into Wed tho’ winds drop a little. We get all back to normal end of this week.
Tropics: No storms for Hawaii swell.







FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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