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7am Monday 7/27 powered by Seaspecs

Mostly sunny AM skies with light trades; High surf advsry for all southern shores.

Biggest SSW of year fades slowly. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down some on the 8 sec NE. Sunset Pt. is smooth 0-1.5' max & Rocky Pt 0-1.5' ; Pipe 0-1/2'; Chuns 0-1' (lulls) & Laniakea 0-1.5' with good, smooth AM offshores; partly cloudy.
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West:

Down and holding SSW 3-5' but lully at Makaha. Still 6' sets occasionally at select west side reefs. Glassy early and clear.
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Town:

Down and holding on the 15 sec SSW. Surf's 3-5+ sets on average with long, fairly fat lines when they roll at Kewalo's-Bowls-Kaisers (channel reefs); fair to good light-moderate AM offshores with nice skies.
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Diamond Head:

Down and holding on the 15 sec SSW @ 4-6' at Right hands/Cliffs. Still Long powerful lines & bumpy. Mostly sunny.
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Sandy's:

Down and holding on the S-SW @ 3-5' with some heavy roll through sets & lulls, with light 5-10 winds; lotta sand washed out plus white water, wonky, ugly, heavy; from Full-Half Pt and Pipe littles; sketchy big barreling shorebreak; bright & sunny.
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East Makapu'u:

Dropping NE and trade swell at 1-2' lines mostly inside on the left and toward middle and 0-2' toward Keiki's; higher trades with choppiness & typical clouds.

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph E

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 89°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

E
5-15

E-NE
10-20

NE
10-20

E-NE
10-25

E-NE
10-25

North

Tuesday
07/28
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping

Wednesday
07/29
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Holding

Thursday
07/30
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Holding

Friday
07/31
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Holding

Saturday
08/01
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Rising Later
isolated 10 sec windswell Tropics Storm
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West

Tuesday
07/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Dropping Slowly
4' 14 sec
Wednesday
07/29
S-SW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

Thursday
07/30
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding

Friday
07/31
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
new 16 sec background SSW
Saturday
08/01
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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South

Tuesday
07/28
S-SW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Dropping
4' 14 sec
Wednesday
07/29
S-SW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Dropping

Thursday
07/30
S-SW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

Friday
07/31
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising
1' 16 sec
Saturday
08/01
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
1.5' 15 sec
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east

Tuesday
07/28
NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Wednesday
07/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Thursday
07/30
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Friday
07/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Saturday
08/01
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

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Current Swells:

Tuesday   07/28
Primary: Dropping Slowly  S-SW  3-5'
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  1-2' surf at 8 sec
Third: Dropping  NE  0-1' surf
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   07/28
High surf advisory for all southern shores likely
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   07/28
good w/ increasing trades
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   07/28
Fair w/ increasing trades

Oahu

SUNSET
Tuesday   07/28
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
East Trades light
smooth

ROCKY POINT
Tuesday   07/28
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades light
smooth

Pipeline
Tuesday   07/28
NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
East Trades light
diving , paddling and fishin'

HALEIWA
Tuesday   07/28
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
East Trades light
clean

MAKAHA
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Calm to seabreezes
smooth

ALA MOANA
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
East Trades light
good

Waikiki
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
East Trades light
smooth

Diamond Head
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
East Trades light
good

Sandy Beach
Tuesday   07/28
ENE+SSW
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
East Trades light-moderate
rough

Makapuu
Tuesday   07/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
East Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Maui

Hookipa
Tuesday   07/28
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
East Trades light
semi-clean

Honolua
Tuesday   07/28
NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
East Trades light
smooth

Kihei
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
East Trades light
smooth
bigger down the road
Hana
Tuesday   07/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades light
semi-clean

Lahaina
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
East Trades light
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Tuesday   07/28
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
East Trades light
smooth

Majors
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
East Trades light
good

Poipu
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Kapaa
Tuesday   07/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades light
slightly bumpy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Tuesday   07/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Kohala
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
East Trades light
smooth
isolated reefs SSW bigger
Kona
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Trades light
good

Kau
Tuesday   07/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Weather

Jul 18, 2015 10:00 AM HST

Synopsis
A surface high far northeast of the islands will bring trade winds to the area through midweek. The high will be replaced during the middle of the week, which will cause the winds to gradually subside. Look for winds to strengthen again during the latter part of the week. Through the week, showers will be focused over the windward areas, with some afternoon showers over leeward and interior areas when the trades weaken.

Discussion
In general good agreement between the models with the forecast for the week. High pressure far to the northeast of the islands will be replaced by a new high mid week. During that transition, trade winds will weaken, which will allow for some localized land and sea breezes. The resultant ridge remains north of the islands through the transition, but during the second half of the week, the high shifts to be more north of the islands. By the end of the week the trade wind speeds should rebound to more moderate levels.

There is good agreement with the development of a 500 mb low to the northeast of the islands overnight and move to the west. The general path brings the center of the low north of Kauai Monday night. The 500 mb temperatures over the islands with this system remain within normal for this time of year, but it is possible that this system could destabilize the atmosphere again. Earlier forecast update put the slight chance of thunderstorms into the forecast for the Kona slopes tomorrow afternoon. Have left those in place but altered the associated pops.

The global models are in good agreement with a slug of drier air moving over the islands Monday night and Tuesday, which would put some limits on the amount of shower activity. Have made some modifications to the pops through this time period. As the upper low moves west of the islands, the models show an increase in low level moisture moving towards the islands from the southeast, which could increase the shower activity. During this time mid week, winds will be lighter so the showers could form over leeward and interior areas.

More moderate trades are expected to end the week, with showers focused over the windward and mountain areas.

Aviation
Vfr conditions prevail at all taf sites and these conditions are expected to continue through tonight. There may be some local MVFR conditions over windward slopes due to low clouds and SHRA. No airmets are currently in effect.

Marine
A small craft advisory /sca/ is in effect for the typical windier locations near the Big Island and Maui county. Ascat pass last night showed 20 kts, which matched well with hi-res models like the arw and the nmm, which showed a brief uptick expected in the winds today. The SCA goes through 6 am Sunday, but the main focus will be this afternoon. The winds will drop below SCA levels then through mid week, with the next chance for SCA winds coming later in the week.

Surf along east facing shores will be near advisory levels through the next several days due to a number of swells. Current buoy reports match well with the wave watch data and the current forecast so not expecting any changes with that in the short term.

An anticipated intensifying storm system in the south Pacific just east of New Zealand in the next couple of days, will be generating a nice size swell towards Hawaii with the arrival time of Friday night. Please refer to the surf discussion /srdhfo/ discussion for more details.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory for waters around Maui including Maalaea Bay and waters south of the Big Island until 6 am HST Sunday.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture Wednesday update 7/22 through end of Month.

NPAC

Recent and current: The great summer keeps delivering. This time its the 3' NE plus a pinch WNW. Friday saw the 13 sec WNW up to chest high overlapping a 2’ NE for select spots like Laniakea.

It’s been a very active tropical season. Thus, plenty NE but this current event of 11 seconds is compliments of the large High off the west coast with a 30+kt fetch on its SE flank that moved toward us for several days; the country peaks into Thursday… Some trace ½’ 14 sec WNW may be felt during the same time but iffy. Plus a very weak Low off the Kurils may get some 1’ NW surf here Thursday but WW3 says no.

Last: Typhoon Haiola SE of Japan is being monitored for swell later next week.

SPAC:

Recent and current: Still rideable at 2' solid from the SSW and SSE. Once the records are in at the end of July it is estimated that this summer will be among the most consistent in a decade. Today we see continuing 13 sec SSW up to near chest high max for top sets top spots with nice offshore trades. 20-30kt blew about a week ago east of Tahiti and added in 2’ SE surf at 11 seconds weekend of the 18th. Yet another source south of Tahiti pushes a SSE to 2’ filling Wednesday the 22nd.

Next: The real deal is coming to finish off July esp. by Saturday the 25th. This storm phase had a one two three punch with the second and third combo delivering the knock out. The first low tracked ENE within the jet flow from SE of the Taz then up to the N. Island. Thanks to the 45kt fetch 15sec forerunners will be felt Thursday the 23rd but this first phase will only be about 3’ with long lulls Friday from the SW.

Next: Phase2: A slight downgrade but not to worry it's still going to be big. A low east of NZ Sunday the 19th produced a long wide fetch nosing to about 3000 miles from us which is 1000 closer than normal. This means less swell decay and higher surf. We get 1.5’ at 18 sec Friday with the Surf ramping late in the day and filling the first half of Saturday at 2-4' then easy 6’ Saturday midday-Sunday the 25-26th. Top spots/sets should be 7'. (no mo' 8' claim as we advised the models tend to run hot or overcall these intial readings.

Next/last: Phase3: Another Low on the west side of the first Big One tracks NE too on Monday 6/20 near Auckland on the N. Is. This one’s smaller but will add to the existing seas of the first storm which will keep us above average at almost 6' Monday-5' Wednesday the 27-29th when the surf drops to about 4’ Thursday and so on. Hey, that’s nearly a week of swell if you count the smaller book ends of these 3 Lows.

Windward: summer high pressures at 1036 mb to our NE and East Pac Tropical cyclones keep us above that 1-2+ ENE average later this weekend and the upcoming work week. TS Enrique moved west this week with a tight fetch but due to long distance we won’t see over 3’ Sat/Sunday. Hurricane Delores peaked Wed the 15th and stayed over 2500 miles off which add to the surf energy Sat/Sunday.
Next: The 4’ NE at 11 sec mentioned in the NPAC section brings up the entire windward and NE coast Tuesday-Thursday to 2-3' maybe higher. Country hits 3' solid for best refraction.
Tropics: so far….

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique Felicia
Guillermo Hilda Ignacio Jimena Kevin Linda
Marty Nora Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra
Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda









FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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