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Waves, Winds, Weather 7am today by Freaky Halloween Friday @ Surfer, the Bar

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A nice day on the way esp for leeward with light-moderate-fresh NE trades filling 10-25. NNE and SSW fade. HIC Pro is OFF.

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North Shore:

Down on the 10 second NNE but reinforcing on a new 14 second N at 3-5+ for Laniakea, 3-5' at Sunset, 3-5' at Rocky's area and smaller 2-4' at Chuns & Pipe & Ali'i Beach Park. Poor to fair with morning sickness and side offshore NE winds increasing. Fairly cloudy.
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West:

Down but rising later on the 3' North and down/dropping on the 2' SSW, so it's 1-2 occ barely 3' at Makaha with a glassy dawn to offshore NE trades and clear.
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Town:

Down and dropping on the 13 sec S-SSW at 1-2' average or waist high at Ala Moana-Kaisers & the Beach Park with smooth offshores and clear.
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Diamond Head:

Down and dropping on the 13 second SSW with some SSE making sets at 1-2' with semi bumpy, fair side offshore NE trades; partly clear.
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Sandy's:

Down on the south, up on the North with 2-3' sets + mix of 2+' trade swell, focusing at Gas Chambers with fair to good side-offshore NE 10-20 trades. Partly clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and holding on a North wrap & trade swells with moderate 10-20 onshore NE trades at 2-4' on the outside left to the middle and across the bay to Keiki's. Mostly cloudy.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

North

Friday
10/31
COMBO
Haw: 3-5 occ +
Face: 5-9 occ +
Holding
cloudy, funky, new 14 North + 9 sec NNE
Saturday
11/01
COMBO
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
Dropping
4' 11 sec N + 7' 8 sec NNE
Sunday
11/02
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping
5' 11 sec + 5' 12 sec NNE
Monday
11/03
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Rising Later
2.5' 13 sec NW
Tuesday
11/04
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising
3' 11 second
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West

Friday
10/31
N SSW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising Later
clear, clean
Saturday
11/01
N SSW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
clear, clean
Sunday
11/02
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Monday
11/03
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Tuesday
11/04
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

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South

Friday
10/31
S
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Saturday
11/01
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
1.5' 14 sec
Sunday
11/02
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping
2' 12 sec
Monday
11/03
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
1' 15 sec
Tuesday
11/04
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising Later
1' 18 sec
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east

Friday
10/31
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
9' 9 sec
Saturday
11/01
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Sunday
11/02
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping

Monday
11/03
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Tuesday
11/04
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Friday   10/31
Primary: Rising  NNW+NNE  3-5+
Secondary: Holding  ENE+NNE  2-4'
Third: Dropping  S-SW  1-2' (swell 1.5' 14 sec)
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   10/31
small craft adv for all waters; high surf advsry for East shores
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Sailing Report:

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Diving Report:

Friday   10/31
Fair to good for deeper south and west; poor for N and East.

Oahu

SUNSET
Friday   10/31
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

ROCKY POINT
Friday   10/31
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

Pipeline
Friday   10/31
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

HALEIWA
Friday   10/31
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

MAKAHA
Friday   10/31
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate
good

ALA MOANA
Friday   10/31
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Waikiki
Friday   10/31
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Diamond Head
Friday   10/31
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

Sandy Beach
Friday   10/31
S+N
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Makapuu
Friday   10/31
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Maui

Hookipa
Friday   10/31
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Honolua
Friday   10/31
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kihei
Friday   10/31
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
sailin' and kitin'

Hana
Friday   10/31
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
East Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Friday   10/31
S+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Trades light-moderate
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Friday   10/31
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Majors
Friday   10/31
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Poipu
Friday   10/31
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
East Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kapaa
Friday   10/31
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Friday   10/31
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Friday   10/31
NNW+NNE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kona
Friday   10/31
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Trades light-moderate
smooth

Hilo
Friday   10/31
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kau
Friday   10/31
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Weather

Oct 31, 2014 3:44 AM HST

Synopsis
Moisture from a dissipating front along with breezy trade winds will produce frequent showers today and tonight, especially across windward areas. Trade winds will gradually decrease during the weekend and into early next week. Showers will remain likely over windward areas, spilling into some leeward areas at times.

Discussion
Fast moving showers have continued to affect mainly windward sections of the state overnight. These showers have remained mostly low topped and of light to moderate intensity, which combined with the rapid motion has prevented any excessive rainfall amounts. Surface analysis depicts a dissipating front across the western end of the state, with a 1031 mb high centered about 1100 miles north of Honolulu. Fresh to strong trades prevail over the region to the south of this high. Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level low cutting off just south of the state, with some cumulonimbus developing during the last few hours over the offshore waters northeast of Maui, and within the region of favorable diffluence to the northeast of the upper low. Mimic-tpw imagery shows a narrow ribbon of enhanced moisture along the dissipating front lying across Kauai and Oahu. The 12Z soundings were quite moist and moderately unstable in the lower levels up to around 700 mb, but were very dry above.

For today, would expect frequent showers to continue across windward areas, with some of the showers spilling over into leeward sections of the smaller islands due to the brisk trade wind flow. It appears that the significantly dry airmass aloft will probably prevent deep convection from developing over the state, although heavier showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible over the coastal and offshore waters to the northeast and east of Maui.

Trades will gradually weaken during the weekend as the surface high shifts northeast of the state and another cold front moves eastward north of 30°N. Lingering moisture from the nearby dissipated front and the proximity of the mid/upper level trough should keep showers active across windward areas, especially at night, with scattered showers continuing to spill into some leeward areas.

During the first half of next week, another strong surface high pushing eastward across the dateline will force the next frontal boundary slowly southeastward toward the state. Low level winds will veer slightly to the east-southeast in response, with some degree of enhanced moisture possibly being drawn up from the deep tropics over our area. Model consensus then dissipates the front just north of the state by next Thursday, as the surface high moves well north of the area. Trades should increase once again, with a typical windward shower pattern continuing.

Aviation
Moderate to locally strong trades across the islands early this morning will prevail at least through tonight. Thus the airmet for low level turb will continue. Much of the low clouds from a dissipating cold front are now staying along the north and northeast edge of the coastal waters. In fact, a few convection have developed along this line at this time, with CB tops fl350. Expect these activities to be limited to the aforementioned coastal waters areas, though low clouds from the band will spread to the islands at times, and providing some passing showers. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the sites, but then passing low clouds may lead to brief MVFR conditions, especially along windward and mountain areas. Early morning Lihue and Hilo soundings revealed drier conditions at the upper levels. Therefore the mention of light icing will be dropped at the next update.

Marine
A combination of north swell and trade driven wind waves continues to produce elevated surf on north and east facing shores. Another reinforcing north swell will arrive today, then slowly diminish through the weekend. A high surf advisory remains in effect through 6 am Saturday for east facing shores. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through Monday, with a slight bump Tuesday as a new long period swell arrives. Another small northwest swell will arrive Tuesday as well.

The overnight ascat pass missed most of the Hawaiian coastal waters, but interpolation from available data along with land based observations indicate that winds around 25 knots are likely continuing across many areas. A small craft advisory /sca/ remains posted through 6 am Saturday for most coastal areas due to the strong winds and large seas. Winds and seas should subside in some areas by Saturday, but SCA winds will likely continue across the typically windy areas around Maui county and the Big Island. The advisory has been extended for those zones through Saturday night.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 am HST Saturday for east facing shores of Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui and Big Island.

Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.

Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Saturday for Kauai northwest waters, Kauai windward waters, Kauai leeward waters, Kauai channel, Oahu windward waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui county windward waters.
All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

BIG SURF PICTURE
10/31/14 Friday
NPAC
The Jet stream is not put together optimally for WNW-NW ground swell. It’s rather weak with the highest winds to our North and a new High tracking in from the distant WNW. Over the weekend most the troughing is in the East Pac and the jets broken to bits in the West Pac. Early this upcoming week 11/3-5 there’s scattered areas of troughs and higher winds but the big highs keep blocking. Still there’s some flow pointing down from the central Aleutians esp into Wednesday. Then finally by Thursday the Jet organizes off the Kuril Islands with some 180kt east flow. And Friday sees some 200kts as the Jet lowers to 40degrees lat and spills some trough on top of the Island for some interesting weather, winds and waves next weekend. But at this point no Lows form within the better jet 7 days out.
Recent- Currently: Tons of windy NNW-NNE surf up to over 6’ has been had even the HIC grabbed some contestable surf Thursday at easy 6’ maybe 7’ but again the form and winds left lots to be desired. The origin was an east bound Low tracking from our N into the Gulf east Sunday-Tuesday. Tuesday saw some more fetch pushing down from the east Aleutians sending most its power to our east but we had plenty sideband swell with 11-14 seconds. The large high to our North has been increasing the pressure gradient with the Low in the gulf and adding it’s own winds from the ENE keeping winds swell above average into Monday.
Next: As of Friday, the fetches are far north and zonal along the Aleutians with 2 highs dominating the scene and keeping trades up.
Next: A fetch pointing ESE from the Kurils Thursday-Friday may push out some small 14 sec NW-NNW surf filling Monday evening and get to 3-5’ by Tuesday morning and drop fast Wednesday to 2-3’.
Next: A low tries to get out beyond the Kurils Monday-Tuesday buts mostly stays in the sea of Okhotsk. By Wednesday she manages to move east into the Pacific blue off Kamchatka. A small but fun 14 second NW’r of 3-5’ might fill late Friday the 8th and hold Sunday before backing down lots Monday.
Last: Plenty of generic complex east track lows are far to our NW to N next weekend. The closer fetch could bring in some 3-5’ NW surf Tuesday the 11th. But, not much confidence yet for this one.
SPAC:
The Jet down under has 2 branches with the weakest one above NZL and the southern branch the strongest. Friday show a slight tilts NE allowing us to keep riding well into winter…in town. One small flow occurs from Friday. Then it goes real quite.
Recent-current: Above seasonals. It’s 1-2’ surf with 13 seconds of energy and clean good fun with ENE trades. She came by a fetch to the SE of NZL a Tues-Wed the 15th nosing to the top of NZL and allowed us more town fun from the SSW that filled Wed the 29th peaking 2.5’ or chest high. Not bad when u look at the calendar.
Next: Yet another fetch of 20-30kts flows up the east coast tracking east Oct 27-28th. On Sunday Nov 2nd we could see more waist maybe chest high sets for 2 days from the SSW-S with 14 seconds.
Next: We actually got a powerful 55kt Taz sea Low Tuesday the 28th which could ramp us to 3’ later Tuesday into Wednesday and even Thursday with 18 sec forerunners. This will add to the South bringing us more summer time fun in winter.
NExt: A Low is far off NZL today the 31st. We could see 14 sec background South surf up to lower chest high Friday nite into Saturday the 8th.
Last: more back ground 1’ 15 sec ‘swell’ could pop the buoys Monday the 10th from the Low to the SE of NZL this weekend; short and sorta sweet.
There’s also another Taz Sea Low Sunday-Monday but it tracks east. Gotta give this a low chance.
Windward side: Solid 4’ NNE surf plus 3’ Trade swell into the weekend and more for next week due to the strong Highs to our NW and NE.

Tropics: There’s a storm tracking N from off the PI with increasing winds up to 45kts hitting Japan’s coast by Thursday 11/6. She weakens a lot as she recurves eastward Friday. This coming week we also see a storm off Baja tracing N right into Cabo as she disappears by Wednesday, thank God. We wont see any surf from these sources other than possible trace energy.


FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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