IMAGE CAPTION: LOWER TRESTLES, California, USA  (Saturday, May 2, 2015): Brazilian Filipe Toledo (pictured) winning the Oakley Lowers Pro, the first World Surf League (WSL) QS10000 of the 2015 season, after defeating Jeremy Flores (FRA) in a hard-fought 35 minute Final in building 3-to-5 foot surf in San Clemente, California, USA on Saturday May 2, 2015. 

IMAGE CREDIT: © WSL / Rowland

PHOTOGRAPHER: Sean Rowland

SOCIAL MEDIA TAG: @wsl 

The images attached or accessed by link within this email ("Images") are hand-out images from the Association of Surfing Professionals LLC ("World Surf League"). All Images are royalty-free but for editorial use only. No commercial or other rights are granted to the Images in any way. The Images are provided on an "as is" basis and no warranty is provided for use of a particular purpose. Rights to an individual within an Image are not provided. Copyright to the Images is owned by World Surf League. Sale or license of the Images is prohibited. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. shane BIG makuarothman IMAGE CAPTION: LOWER TRESTLES, California, USA  (Friday, May 1, 2015):  Jack Freestone of Gold Coast, Australia (pictured) winning his Round 3 with a solid 17.54 two wave heat total (out of 20.00) to earn his place into Round 4 where he will do battle for a place in the quarterfinals at the Oakley Lowers Pro in California, USA on Friday May 1, 2015. 

IMAGE CREDIT: © WSL / Rowland
PHOTOGRAPHER: Sean Rowland
SOCIAL MEDIA TAG: @wsl 

The images attached or accessed by link within this email ("Images") are hand-out images from the Association of Surfing Professionals LLC ("World Surf League"). All Images are royalty-free but for editorial use only. No commercial or other rights are granted to the Images in any way. The Images are provided on an "as is" basis and no warranty is provided for use of a particular purpose. Rights to an individual within an Image are not provided. Copyright to the Images is owned by World Surf League. Sale or license of the Images is prohibited. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. TRACEGPS Frederico Morais of Portugal (pictured) winning his Round 1 heat with an excellent 8.63 score (out of a possible 10) to advance into Round 2 at the Oakley Lowers Pro in San Clemente, California, USA on Thursday April 30, 2015. Kolohe Andino of San Clemente California, USA (pictured) winning his Round 1 heat at the Oakley Lowers Pro on Thursday April 29, 2015. Andino posted a near perfect 9.00 (out of ten point ride) to advance into Round 2. DorianirelamdCapture zekelowers DaveKalama2015_apr22_a_01

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Obs: 7am Saturday 5/2 Powered by: The Local Motion Surf into Summer

Lighter trades this morning picking up later and gusty 10-25mph ENE trades & small craft advsrys for channels.

Mostly sunny skies with clouds hanging over the mountains. Biggest swell impacting the eastside but dropping. 3-5' S-SW arrives Wed! Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Holding small on the NNE. NW buoy 5' 9 sec with Waimea 6' 9 sec. Surf is currently 0-1.5' at Sunset Pt & Rocky Pt. while Pipe is missing at 0-1/2' ; Chuns is 0-1' maybe plus and Ali'i 0-1' Laniakea/Holtons 2' and smooth with lighter AM side offshores. Not best angle for most spots. Partly cloudy.
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West:

Holding small from the N and SSW at 0-1+' at Makaha; nice offshores and sunny
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Town:

Up and rising a little on a S-SW with 1-2' mostly with some + sets at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area with clean, moderate + side offshores and mostly sunny.
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Diamond Head:

Up and rising a little from the SSW and SSE at 1-2'+ mostly & a few chest high drops; with semi bumpy. Mostly sunny.
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Sandy's:

Dropping on the ENE trade wind swell pattern at 2-3' on the sets at Full Pt, to Half pt; all the way to Chambers. There's some hollow and some folding ones due to stiff sideshores and mostly sunny.
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East Makapu'u:

Dropping on the 9 sec North and east trade at 2-3+ from the outside left to middle mostly and some 2' on right side at Keikis and choppy with partly cloudy skies.

Weather

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 84°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 85°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 85°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 84°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph ENE

E-NE
10-25
Trades filling in midday
E-NE
10-20+

E-NE
10-20

E-NE
10-20

E-NE
10-25

North

Saturday
05/02
N-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping
smooth & Partly cloudy
Sunday
05/03
NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Monday
05/04
N-NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising
3' 11 sec
Tuesday
05/05
N-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Wednesday
05/06
N-NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

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West

Saturday
05/02
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding
partly cloudy & clean
Sunday
05/03
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Monday
05/04
N-NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising

Tuesday
05/05
N-NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Wednesday
05/06
NNW+SSW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising
SSW
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South

Saturday
05/02
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
1' 15 sec, clean & mostly sunny
Sunday
05/03
S-SE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
1' 18 sec
Monday
05/04
S-SE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Tuesday
05/05
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising Later
1.5' 18 sec
Wednesday
05/06
S-SW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Holding
4' 16 sec
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east

Saturday
05/02
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping
Choppy, partly cloudy
Sunday
05/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding

Monday
05/04
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Tuesday
05/05
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
05/06
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Untitled-1

Current Swells:

Secondary: Rising  S-SW  1-2' surf 12 sec + 1' surf @ 17 sec background SSW
Third: Dropping  N-NE  0-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   05/02
small craft advisories for island channels near Maui
Untitled-1

Sailing Report:

Saturday   05/02
good with fresh 10-25 mph ENE afternoon trades
Untitled-1

Diving Report:

Saturday   05/02
Good for west and north shores. Fair for south shores, poor out east

Oahu

SUNSET
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

ROCKY POINT
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Pipeline
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
diving , paddling and fishin'

HALEIWA
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

MAKAHA
Saturday   05/02
S+N
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

ALA MOANA
Saturday   05/02
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Waikiki
Saturday   05/02
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate
good

Diamond Head
Saturday   05/02
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Sandy Beach
Saturday   05/02
E+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Makapuu
Saturday   05/02
E+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
East Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Honolua
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
semi-clean

Kihei
Saturday   05/02
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
good
sailin'
Hana
Saturday   05/02
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Lahaina
Saturday   05/02
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Majors
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Poipu
Saturday   05/02
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Kapaa
Saturday   05/02
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Saturday   05/02
N-NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Saturday   05/02
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
East Trades light-moderate
good

Hilo
Saturday   05/02
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Kau
Saturday   05/02
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Weather

April 3, 2015 5:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Trade wind speeds will ease slightly today, especially across the smaller islands, as a surface trough moves to a position north of Kauai. An increase in showers is expected through Saturday, especially over the windward Big Island, due to an area of enhanced tropical moisture spreading up from the southeast over the eastern end of the main Hawaiian island chain. Breezy trade wind weather is forecast to return later this weekend as a surface high strengthens to the northeast of the islands. Expect a somewhat typical springtime trade wind weather pattern early next week.

Discussion
The pressure gradient southwest of a nearly stationary 1033 mb surface high centered near 37°N 142°W, or more than 1400 miles northeast of Honolulu, is maintaining locally breezy trade winds across the eastern portion of the main Hawaiian island chain early this morning. However, a surface front located about 500 miles northwest of Lihue is moving slowly toward the northeast. The lower pressure associated with this feature is causing the winds over most of the western and central sections of the island chain to gradually weaken and shift to an east southeast direction.

Aloft, a mid-tropospheric trough is evident northwest of Kauai. This feature has caused a slight destabilization of the atmosphere near Kauai. However, moisture profiles from the early morning Lihue sounding and the latest satellite derived estimates of precipitable water /pw/ showed values of only about one inch in the vicinity of the smaller islands. There were scattered to locally broken low clouds and isolated showers mainly occuring over some windward and mauka sections of the smaller islands, while broken to overcast low clouds and scattered showers were near the windward Big Island.

The Hilo sounding showed slightly higher moisture values, with a PW of about 1.2 inches. However, an area of enhanced tropical moisture is currently evident about just south of the Big Island. The forecast models indicate this area will continue to spread up from the southeast over the eastern end of the main Hawaiian island chain today and tonight. Some of this enhanced moisture may also spread up over the smaller islands from later today and tonight into the weekend.

Output from the forecast models indicate the front northwest of Kauai will weaken to a surface trough later today or tonight when it moves to a position north of Kauai. Also, the mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward. The presence of these features will continue to slacken the pressure gradient across the area, leading to weaker east to east southeast flow over most of the smaller islands today. Parts of the Big Island may continue to see locally breezy trades today, with a slight decrease in wind speeds tonight.

The increased moisture combined with a slight destabilization of the atmosphere due to the mid-level trough will likely lead to increased showers especially over the windward Big Island from today into this weekend. The models also indicate there may be a modest increase in showers over portions of the smaller Hawaiian islands at the same time. There is also the potential for snow showers over the Big Island summits tonight and early Saturday morning, due to deeper moisture and the colder temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough.

During this weekend, the surface trough, as well as the associated mid-level trough are expected to lift north northeastward away from the islands. This should allow the pressure gradient to become reestablished over the area due to the surface high far northeast of the state becoming the dominate synoptic feature once again. This will lead to an increase of trade winds over the islands from this weekend into early next week. The global forecast models also continue to indicate a slightly drier air mass may spread across the area by early next week. Therefore, expect a somewhat typical springtime trade wind weather pattern across most of the island chain early next week.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture 4/10/15 Friday

NPAC
We now have 2 more tiny pulses of WNW to NW through the middle of April until a downgraded NW fills in Wednesday peaks Thursday the 16th and drops a lot by Friday the 17th. In fact, models started with 13’ 16 seconds open ocean Tuesday the 7th and have now gone to 7.5’ 15 seconds.

The Jet stream has moved far north off Japan with an East or zonal flow below the Aleutians. The highest winds are 140 Friday. There’s a bunch of blue showing the high pressure filling most of the pacific below the jet. By this Sunday the 12th she’s broken but has some amplified trough to our NW and off the Kurils. Then Monday a pulse of 160kt winds point ESE from off the Kurils. WW3 points to a nice Low developing here for sizable NNW surf filling Wed-Thursday.

Recent/Current: it’s been small but rideable. Then, a nice surprise with some 4’ sets Wed. eve at 14 sec at Sunset/Boneyards while plenty spots hitting 3’. The source was a fast paced storm tracking east off Kamchatka last Friday the 3rd up by the West Aleutians.

Next: Just back ground 2’ NW for Sunday then a 3’ push from the NNW peaking Monday.

Next: a broad area of weak 25kt winds near the dateline track east end of this week into the weekend. Models hint at a 3’ 12 sec NW filling late Tuesday the 14th. Surf should reach at least 3’ on Tax deadline day.

Next: Another downgrade on the initial models (Tuesday) as they now show a 5 feet smaller (Friday). A Low spawns Sunday far off the Kurils crossing the dateline Monday the 13th. It grows fast as it tracks fast east. WW3 now has seas up to 25’ (vs. 40') plus further away (1800 miles) than the first output (1000 miles) to our NNW. WW3 now give open swell of 7.5’ at 16 seconds which would still refract enough for 5-7’ surf Wednesday eve on top reefs and 6-8+ Thursday the 16th dropping to 6’ Friday at 15 seconds. Like we said Tuesday, “this outlook is still in the model fantasy stage so don’t give it full confidence yet”. Thus, as does occur more in Spring, models ran hot from first readings. Still, this episode is well above seasonal averages of maybe 3-5’.
Last: There’s a Low at the dateline with an East south-easterly track Thursday the 16th. By Friday she’s to our NNW so we can expect the same angle as the last event only smaller. Ww3 guestimates 6’ 15 seconds of swell Saturday the 18th which could mean some near 8’ surf at Sunset ‘if’ the reading hold. I’m going to guess this one may be downgraded but not to quite the degree as the prior storm.

SPAC:
The Jet down under looks lame for any real ground swell production. All in all it’s been zonal thus the long periods but small swell heights.There are a couple meridional flows but weak winds thus less support for surface lows.
Then late Saturday and esp Sunday the 12th there’s a rare deep long N trough in the Jet right up the Taz a couple day creating tons of fetch and surf for Fiji and finally us. More below.

The south shores got another mediocre pulse of 2’ SSW Wednesday-Friday with smaller 2’ swell Sunday-Tuesday. Then we lay low until the 16th when we may see chest high surf filling Thursday the 16th.
A huge Taz sea storm rounds out the long range picture starting late on Sunday the 19th and should last past Wednesday with a peak of 3’ maybe 4' from the SW to start and SSW to end. There’s some support from the straight south around the 20th. Here’s the details...

Recent/Current: tiny 2’ stuff from distant sources Tuesday to the SE of NZ. Some reefs refract and shoal long periods better than others.
Adding in with the tiny SSW will be some waist/chest SSE from a spinner under Tahiti a week ago.

Next: a broader but weaker fetch set up Friday 3rd Far East of NZ from the prior Low and will keep 2’ background S to SSW surf this weekend.

Next: The prior fetch moved east and intensified for a better fetch set up since it spun in place under Tahiti last weekend. A better chance of some near 2.5’ South at peak reefs later this weekend.

Next: Thursday the 9th models a small Low 900 miles off NZ with an ENE track. We can expect some surf up to chest high with 15 seconds filling Thursday the 16th.

Next A huge powerful Low tracks right up the Taz this weekend into Monday with near 35’ seas and 10-15’ maybe 18’ surf for Fiji Thursday the 16th. We’ll get a small fraction thanks to the cheese grating S Pac Islands. The storm reforms east of NZ Monday the 13th and spins off some swell trains from the SSW. Thus, a long lasting SW veering SSW with 16 seconds with surf filling Monday the 20th to easy 3' and surf peaking at near 4’ Tuesday, Wednesday 21-22nd. Forerunners hit late Sunday the 19th building into Monday and even Tuesday.
Last: Models longing out long show a storm to the SE of NZ Friday the 17th. So add 6-7 days and we should see forerunners late Thursday the 23rd peaking Friday-Saturday at 3’ or head high with 14-15 sec.

Windward: A new strong High is NNW spawned Wednesday so Thursday we saw a short lived burst of 15-30 trades thus wind swell ramped to 3’ solid but periods will be short thus not near as high or powerful as the recent event the weekend prior.
The long haul sees smaller typical waist high chop from this weekend onward.


















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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