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Exclusive Obs: 650am Friday March 5, powered by: Surfer, the Bar: Tribal Theory Tonight

Cold but clearer with moderate to strong NE'erlies. Small craft advsys.

The NS still bad, Town still clean. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down on the NW and holding on NNE (NW buoy 275 miles off) is 9' 9 sec on the NNE. Waimea 3' 12 sec on NW). Currently, it's 2-4' at Sunset, while Pipe is 1-3' (OTW, Backdoor bigger). Laniakea is 3-4' and Chuns is 2-3+'. NE trades gusty so it's poor sideshore & bumpy, crumbly; cloudy.
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West:

Down on the NW and SSW at 0-1-2' mostly. Good conditions w/ offshore NE'erlies; partly cloudy.
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Town:

Down and dropping on the 13 sec SSW plus fading on a small 12 second SSE; surf is clean at 0-1-2' (waist high max) at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area is 1-2'. Super Clean and offshore at dawn today and partly cloudy.
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Diamond Head:

Down and dropping on the SSW and a SSE at 1-2' maybe off/on 2.5' on the take offs & very decently clean offshore and mostly cloudy (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Down and Holding on the NE swell and the SSE at 1-2 maybe the occ +' out over the reefs and in the shorebreak with NE winds and clean offshore; mostly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding from E-NE trade and N angle at 2-3' occ 4' on the left to the middle with 3' surf on the right too; choppy & cloudy & cold. "strangest winter yet'.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
66°F
max: 77°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph NNE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
64°F
max: 76°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NNE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
64°F
max: 75°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NNE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
63°F
max: 76°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NNE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
65°F
max: 76°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph NNE

NE
15-25+

NE
15-25+

NE
10-20

N
5-15

North

Friday
03/06
NW+NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
3' 12 sec; poor sideshore, fairly cloudy
Saturday
03/07
NW+NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
3' 15 sec
Sunday
03/08
NNW+NNE
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising
NNW 7' 12 sec
Monday
03/09
NNW+NNE
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
Rising
NNW 11' 13 sec
Tuesday
03/10
NNW+NNE
Haw: 4-8
Face: 6-14
Dropping
8' 12 sec
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West

Friday
03/06
NW SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping
smooth offshore, clear
Saturday
03/07
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Sunday
03/08
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Rising

Monday
03/09
NNW+NNE
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising

Tuesday
03/10
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping

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South

Friday
03/06
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
brisk offshore, mostly clear
Saturday
03/07
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Sunday
03/08
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Monday
03/09
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
1' 14 sec iffy
Tuesday
03/10
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

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east

Friday
03/06
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
9' 9 sec
Saturday
03/07
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Holding

Sunday
03/08
ENE+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

Monday
03/09
ENE+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Tuesday
03/10
ENE+NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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Current Swells:

Friday   03/06
Primary: Dropping  NW+N  2-4'
Secondary: Holding  ENE+N  2-4'
Third: Dropping  SSE+SSW  1-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   03/06
Small craft advsry from gusty NE trades
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Sailing Report:

Friday   03/06
Good with 15-25+ NE'eries
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Diving Report:

Friday   03/06
Fair-Good for south and west; poor/fair for east & north shores

Oahu

SUNSET
Friday   03/06
COMBO
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor

ROCKY POINT
Friday   03/06
NW+N
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
disorganized and ugly

Pipeline
Friday   03/06
NW+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor

HALEIWA
Friday   03/06
NW+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
stormy

MAKAHA
Friday   03/06
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light-moderate
good

ALA MOANA
Friday   03/06
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good
gusty offshore
Waikiki
Friday   03/06
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good
gusty
Diamond Head
Friday   03/06
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Sandy Beach
Friday   03/06
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
NE Trades moderate-fresh
Offshore

Makapuu
Friday   03/06
ENE+N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Friday   03/06
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Honolua
Friday   03/06
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Kihei
Friday   03/06
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades moderate-fresh
slightly bumpy

Hana
Friday   03/06
ENE+N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
rough

Lahaina
Friday   03/06
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
weak

Kauai

Hanalei
Friday   03/06
NW+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy
funky
Majors
Friday   03/06
NW+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Poipu
Friday   03/06
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kapaa
Friday   03/06
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Friday   03/06
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Friday   03/06
W
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades moderate-fresh
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Friday   03/06
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
good

Hilo
Friday   03/06
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Kau
Friday   03/06
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Weather

Mar 05, 2015 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
A cool air mass with low clouds will prevail into the weekend from Niihau to Maui. Showers will be lighter than earlier in the week, and will occur mainly over windward slopes. Over the Big Island, the rain and deep clouds will diminish gradually through the weekend. Northeast winds will persist throughout. Another rain band may affect the state early next week.

Discussion
Deep cloud layers shifted southeast, exposing the main Hawaiian islands from Niihau to Maui, but remaining thick over the Big Island. Shallower stratocumulus clouds filled in rapidly behind the deep layers though, keeping more cloud cover over the smaller islands than expected earlier. Thanks to orographic forcing, these lower clouds still managed to produce locally substantial precipitation despite the relatively dry air mass now in place over the smaller islands. Pops, clouds, and related fields have been adjusted accordingly. Over the Big Island, the air mass remained relatively moist, and certainly saturated, through a large part of the atmosphere. Winds across the state were a little too northerly to be called proper trade winds, and speeds too high to be called typical.

Aloft, the cold pool associated with an extension of the broader low located well to the northeast contributed to the instability driving the weather across the state, though the trough had become less sharply defined overnight.

Although the deep cloud layers have left Maui county, some solutions portrayed a gradual decrease in precipitation and cloud cover there. One possibility may be that the cloud layers will shift north again briefly, as satellite data suggested, before fraying slowly there and over the Big Island through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with showers following this trend as well. In any case, Kauai county and Oahu will spend most of the rest of the week under the cold-air cumuli, and perhaps the showery stratocumuli.

Guidance generally predicted a pair of fronts to crash into the surface high to the north, diminishing wind speeds slowly over the state through the next 60 hours. Wind direction should remain a little to the north of climatology though.

Solutions started to drift apart by early next week. However, some models predicted a lobe of the mid-level low to sweep over the islands again, providing uplift and reducing stability. Guidance did agree that water vapor would accumulate along the boundary between the air masses again by that time. The support from aloft may enable the boundary to shift north over the state again, potentially bringing a repeat of the past few days. However, recent runs have tended to keep the boundary, and thus the heavy precipitation, south of the state.

Marine
A small craft advisory remained in effect for strong trade winds and rough seas over typically windier coastal waters around the state. Rough surf will build along east-facing shores later in the week, possibly requiring a high surf advisory. A north swell arriving Sunday may produce advisory-level surf along north-facing shores. Otherwise, surf should remain below the advisory thresholds through the week.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Saturday for Kauai northwest waters, Kauai leeward waters, Kauai channel, Kaiwi Channel, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.






Broken clouds are clouds which cover between 6/10 and 9/10 of the sky while scattered clouds is a sky condition when between 1/10 and 5/10 of clouds are covered.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture
2/28/15
NPAC
The Jet stream is not looking anything like earlier this month. In fact, there are 2 high pressure zones, one to our NE moving south and one to our NW moving SE. The later is blocking the Jet and thus the Lows are staying far way. Say good bye for now to the long pattern of big waves from nearby big storms cutting off the trades. All the way through the 7 day forecast highs dominate and even send the Jet flow above the Aleutians. The Jet trough gets deeper toward next weekend to our East which only helps in bringing weather not NW waves.
Recent/Current: The NW shores have gone from extreme WNW swells from close Lows and light konas to N swells and cold NE trades, total opposites. This weekend its 3’ side-shores and cold.
Next: A compact 35-45kt storm spawned just our side of the dateline Friday and moved SE toward HI with a captured fetch (adjacent winds ‘follow’ the Lows center aiming at its target). The nose reaches to about 800 miles to our NNW Saturday thus less open ocean swell decay time. We’ll go ahead and claim solid Advsry level 6-8’ NNW surf Monday. This episode will drop fast to 5’ Tuesday plus NE side off shores will not be optimal.
Next: A Low formed off the Kuirls Friday and is moving ENE with a broad apparent fetch in the 310-330 band. The winds don’t get under 1800 miles away so plenty swell decay will reduce this WNW to 3-5’ Wednesday-Thursday. Periods will be 13-15 seconds. Side off shores will persist.
Last: We may see a small 4’ N to NNE swell fill Sunday the 8th from a small Low to our NNE Friday. The storm builds and broadens into Sunday so we may see some extra size Monday of 4-6’ from the N at 12 seconds.

SPAC:
Not looking good for surface low enhancement until this Friday when a fat deep trough points up into the Taz. Models say ‘no swell production’ from this forecast as the Low stays too zonal and breaks up.
Recent/Current: we’ve had plenty small but fun/doable ‘background’ SSE to SSW over the past week or two; add in the West wraps and Town side has been above seasonal. Plus, the entire Leeward side likes the NE tilt to the trade pattern we’re now in.
Next: A big Low 1000 miles South of Tahiti tracked east beyond our optimal window by Tuesday the 24th. But it was a powerful storm and should send up some 18 sec forerunners Monday with slowly building inconsistent SSE surf of 3’ by late in the day peaking Tuesday-Wednesday. Some reefs like Tennis Courts and Kaisers could see some sets a foot overhead. Other SSW sucking spots will hit shoulder high.
Next: a small chance of small 2’ SSW surf at 14 seconds could fill late Thursday the 5th from a marginal east bond Low far to the SE of NZ end of Feb.
Long ranger fantasy: Tons of storminess moves east from under Australia into the Taz mid week Wednesday but the fetch is not right. WW3 is getting excited tho’ and hinting of some 18 sec forerunners around Wed the 11th with 3’ SSW surf Thur-Saturday the 12-14th. We need to get closer to claim.
Windward: The Low that started off Japan and gave us our Wester ended up near to HI and produced 20-30kt winds on her NW side allowing for some isolated 1-3’ N wind swell this past week. In addition, we had some solid 3’ East swell produced by the pressure gradient between the persistent NE High and the Trough to our ENE. All fades from Sunday from these 2 sources. However, thanks to the fresh NE trades we’ll add back some 1-3’ NE surf into Monday and ‘maybe’ even Tuesday.

















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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