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645am OBs Friday 2/5 btyb the 2016 Turtle Bay Resort Women's SUP Pro

Clear and gorgeous dawn with ultra lite East Trades veering to variables with midday-afternoon seabreezes.

BIG PICTURE Updated Friday. Tiny NW with micro background trade and South swells. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Way down and dropping on the 13 sec NW. Sunset Pt is 2-3' & Pipe is 1-2' super clean; Chuns is up to 3' Haleiwa maybe 3' and all spots are smooth, glassy to light offshores; clear.
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West:

Down and dropping on the NW with Surf hitting 0-2' on the inside at Makaha with smooth, glassy conditions with onshore seabreezes filling 10am onward; clear.
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Town:

Holding a tiny background South at Ala Moana, Kewalos 0-1.5' mostly and tiny for Queens/Canoes are 0-1' with smooth glass early then to lite offshore & late morn seabreezes; clear.
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Diamond Head:

Holding from trace backgrounds swells at 0-1.5' mostly, maybe occ 2' and smooth early but onshore later at Right hands/Cliffs/Lite House with clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Holding small North wrap, East and trace South at 0-2' for Full Pt-Half and barely 2' into middles to Chambers; fairly smooth early to bumpy with increasing seabreezes and clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding at Makapu'u with Trade and North wrap and trace trade swell at 0-1-2' & smooth and clear.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 88°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph SW

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph NW

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
65°F
max: 79°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph NNE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 82°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph ENE

Range:
5-15mph NW
Increasing 15-30mph nite
Range:
10-20+mph N-NE
shifting NE
Range:
5-15+mph NE
veering variable
Range:
5-10mph W-NW
Fickle winds
Range:
5-15mph N
front; shifting winds?

North

Saturday
02/06
NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
4' 10 sec
Sunday
02/07
N-NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20
Rising
12' 12 sec short period, nearby Low
Monday
02/08
N-NW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
Dropping
14' 12 sec
Tuesday
02/09
N-NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
Holding
10' 12 sec
Wednesday
02/10
NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Rising
6' 18 sec 2pm to 16' 20 sec 8pm: 30' surf
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West

Saturday
02/06
NW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Dropping

Sunday
02/07
NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
Rising

Monday
02/08
NW
Haw: 8-10
Face: 12-18
Dropping

Tuesday
02/09
NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Dropping

Wednesday
02/10
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Dropping

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South

Saturday
02/06
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
1' 14 sec
Sunday
02/07
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
.5' 16 sec
Monday
02/08
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
1' 15 sec
Tuesday
02/09
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding
1.5' 14 sec
Wednesday
02/10
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping
1.5' 14 sec
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east

Saturday
02/06
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
02/07
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Monday
02/08
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
02/09
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
02/10
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Saturday   02/06
Primary: Dropping  NW  5-7' surf at 14 sec
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  2' surf at 7 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   02/06
None
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   02/06
Poor-Fair with NW winds light
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Diving Report:

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

Big Picture

Friday 2/5/16

NPAC:
The El Nino jetstream is still large and in charge coming off Japan from 25-40 N lat (normally sitting 600-900 miles up). There are still Pockets of 200+ kts as the consolidated large upper air currents 30,000’ up go from off Japan beyond longitudes of Hawaii over this 7 day forecast period. It’s been supporting the growth of solid surface Lows and steering them close to us for back to back classic big swell for ages. Over this weekend the jet takes a new shape with an NE tilt up from Japan to a Dip down right toward Hawaii by Sunday 2/7 leading to a frontal passage and wind pattern change. The jet stays strong and low for more potential for warning levels well into the month and even for what could be another one of the biggest NW swells of the season.

Recent and current: This past week has been Cranking. The latest NW peaked near 15’ Tuesday afternoon; it’s 6-10’ Wednesday and it’s just 3’ Friday. Monday’s 17 sec WNW came from an occluded Low last Friday and nosed to about 900 off Saturday. It veered NW and with 15 sec Tuesday fading off but not before the next one came. The next storm Sunday tracked fast ENE Monday as it crossed the dateline just 1200 miles away. The winds had some pockets of hurricane force 65kts and up to 24’ seas only 1000 miles out. The outer reefs cracked for the VPP contest in the afternoon as the new energy pulsed. The episode peaked at 10-15’ from the more NNW. Much of the swell was off to our NE. Call 596-SURF, 638-RUSH, 922-BONG

Next: The next fetch pops up to our late Friday and it’s smaller than first model output. It’s a compact Low centered just 1200 miles to our N and racing ENE Saturday out of our window for a still sizeable, short interval NNW-N. Model ran hot as expected (esp on nearby Lows). WW3 downgraded to 8’ 11 sec swells equaling solid 6-10’ NNW for midday Sunday the 7th. Winds won’t be good at all. This will be storm surf thanks to a frontal passage and NW to N clockwise shifting winds.

Next: there’s a low to the NW of the preceding low tracking SE towards us this weekend with a partially captured fetch pulsing a new 12 sec NNW to 8-12’ Monday.

Next: Possible Small pulse of NW later Friday to 4’ from tiny east moving gale that reached the dateline Tuesday. Not showing much so far so not good chances.

Last but certainly not least: Models backed down on the GIANT NW slated for Wed-Friday. The real deal begins formation nearing the dateline this Sunday and intensifying with 40-50’ seas by Monday as it now tracks more East at first then ESE (earlier runs had a better captured fetch). By Tuesday ‘current’ model have this BIG storm broadening and nosing to within 900 miles thru Wednesday as the storm weakens and tracks out of our window Thursday. Original models fantasy had 20+’ swells at 18-20sec; now it’s peaking at 17’ at 16-18 sec but it will still be another BIG Wednesday. 12’ 20 sec at 2pm will mean solid 20’ in the afternoon 2/10 peaking at night. But the fetch was long so it will be a slow decline Thursday with Surf that could hit 30’ (45-50’ faces) at Peahi and 25’ (40’ faces) at Waimea with readings like this. The margin of error is 3-5’ at this time. We’re keeping an eye on it like Eddie Would Go.

SPAC:
The Jet down under is actually conducive to some SSW swell development. The Flow is ENE all week and almost N pointing by week’s end. The southern branch goes zonal by Friday. It really weakens after that with little to no surface low potential.

Recent and current: It’s been tiny with mostly NW wrap trying to occas. give what’s been missing. Trace background thigh high surf is all we’ve had with a few exceptional 2’ sets.

Next: A low moves ENE within the Jet flow mentioned Tues 2/2-Thurs as it veers east out of our window. So we can only expect 2’ maybe 2.5’ surf from the SSW-S around Tuesday-Thursday at 14 seconds.

Next: a fairly big Low comes out from under NZL Friday the 5th and doesn’t have much of an extended fetch so we’ll only see 1’ of SSW swell at 16 seconds Friday the 12th or 2’ surf.

Long Range: That’s about it for now. Occasional lows moving within the off and on zonal jet through the period.


Windward: Tiny trade swells under 2’ with N wrap over riding all other sources.

Tropics: Nothing.



Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4+ local) 15 Feet (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)


Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

Hurricanes/T-Storms so far….

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores Enrique Felicia
Guillermo Hilda Ignacio Jimena Kevin Linda
Marty Nora Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra
Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda

Surfer's Wall Photos

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