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Exclusive Obs: 9am update Saturday Jan 24, 2015 powered by Chancem's Last Saturdays @ Surfer, the Bar

Cool brisk North winds 10-25 post frontal passage now over Molokai dissappating near the Big Is today.

High surf warning for BIG 12-15' near 18' NW swell.
Early High surf advisory for west facing shores of Maui, Lanai and Kahoolawe and for south facing shores of Oahu.
Small craft advisory due to large open ocean NW swell for all Hawaiian waters.
Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up but dropping on the WNW now at 10-15' occas near 18' at outside Sunset and 10-15+' Pipe with terrible stormy onshores (Ehukai almost no beach). All spots a no go. NW buoy went from 18' last nite to 10' now, 16 sec, The Bay buoy is still crankin 12' 17 sec. Rainy squally for now.
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West:

Up but dropping on new WNW now at 6-8' mostly with chance of 10+' at Makaha off the Point and in the Bowl with bumpy NNW winds so far but could turn as winds clock to N. Cloudy.
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Town:

Up and rising on the WSW wrap at 2-3' for many select reefs with glassy to straight offshore at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki area at 1-3'. 2- 4' later; semi cloudy.
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Diamond Head:

Up and rising on the next WSW at 2-3' and holding generic 2' South angle and glassy smooth to lite offshores. packed. 2- 4' later. Mostly cloudy. (see SNN Cam)
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Sandy's:

Up on WSW now nearing 3' off and on. Holding on a combo swell with N and S at 1-2' right near shore or on the nearby reefs with variables to N wind offshores and nice; Full and 1/2 Point better than shorepound. Cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on an East and N swell at 1-2' and lite winds now but expect choppy cold N winds. Cloudy.

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 79°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
28mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 80°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 82°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 83°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph SSW

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 84°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph SW

NE
10-25

NE
10-25

NE
5-15

E-NE
5-10
to Variable
N-NE
10-20

North

Sunday
01/25
W-NW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
Dropping

Monday
01/26
W-NW
Haw: 8-10
Face: 12-18
Dropping

Tuesday
01/27
W-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising
2' 20 sec 8am; 7' 16 sec 8pm
Wednesday
01/28
W-NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
Holding
10' 16 sec
Thursday
01/29
W-NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Dropping
9' 14 sec
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West

Sunday
01/25
W-NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Dropping

Monday
01/26
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping

Tuesday
01/27
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising

Wednesday
01/28
W-NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
Holding

Thursday
01/29
W-NW
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
Dropping

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South

Sunday
01/25
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping

Monday
01/26
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Tuesday
01/27
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Wednesday
01/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Thursday
01/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

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east

Sunday
01/25
NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Monday
01/26
NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Tuesday
01/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Wednesday
01/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
01/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Sunday   01/25
Primary: Dropping  W-NW  8-12+
Secondary: Dropping  W  wrap 1-3'
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Marine Warnings:

Sunday   01/25
Hi Surf Advry for all NW shores, small craft advsrys due to fresh NE Trades
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Sailing Report:

Sunday   01/25
Good with 10-25 mph NE trades
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Diving Report:

Sunday   01/25
air to good for deeper South. NO GO for N and W and adjacent shores. Fair for 'non exposed' select East.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Jan 22, 2015 3:30 AM HST

Synopsis
Winds over the islands will turn to the south and southwest while becoming stronger from today and through Friday, especially over Kauai and Oahu, as a front approaches the area from the northwest. This front will bring increasing showers, starting over Kauai county on Friday and spread down the island chain through the weekend. High pressure will bring a dry trade wind regime in the wake of the front on Sunday and into early next week. Large surf from a northwest swell will also continue through the weekend.

Discussion
The persistent sfc ridge that provided light winds, stable conditions and a dry airmass during the last few days will continue to migrate to the E of the island chain in response to an approaching cold front boundary from the NW. This will allow for winds across the islands to turn out of the S and SW while becoming stronger today and through Fri. The front is expected to reach the island chain Fri when wind speeds and gusts will be strongest, especially over windward slopes and the windward coastlines of the smaller islands. So far, models do not suggest that the wind speeds will reach advisory levels, but the situation will continue to be closely monitored and the forecast will be adjusted accordingly.

Showers will increase across the islands with the fropa, starting Fri over Kauai county, Oahu by Fri night, and Maui county by Sat. Best chances of rain will reside over SE facing slopes. The front should move from NW to SE, all the way down to the Big Island by Sat night. The front itself will likely be almost dissipated by then, so impacts over the Big Island will likely be minimum. Expect increasing clouds and mainly moderate showers along the front. Upper level support seems to remain well to the N of the island chain, therefore deep convection is not anticipated attm.

Winds will turn N and then NE in the wake of the fropa with very dry and stable air establishing across the area on Sun. However, some lingering moisture could affect the windward Big Island and the Hana coast of Maui, bringing lingering clouds and showers Sun and Mon. Otherwise, returning trades should bring a benign weather pattern for early next week.

Aviation
Could see some temporary MVFR cigs at PHNY through the remainder of the overnight, with more predominant MVFR cigs expected later today. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are anticipated through the taf forecast period. No airmets are in effect and none are expected today.

Marine
A very large west-northwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through the weekend. Surf will begin to gradually decrease over the next couple of days, but remain at warning levels until Friday. The westerly component of this swell will allow some of the swell to reach select areas along the south shores, for which advisories remain in effect. The Kona coast of the Big Island should also experience warning level surf from later tonight and into Thursday. The swell will remain large and keep surf elevated through the weekend. The highest tides will occur in the early morning hours allowing for increased wave run-up.

Winds will remain below the small craft advisory threshold of 25 kt for the next few days, but the large northwest swell will produce seas above the 10-foot advisory threshold. Strengthening trade winds may reach advisory criteria early next week.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm HST Friday for Oahu south shore, Lanai makai, Kahoolawe, Maui leeward west, leeward Haleakala.

High surf warning until 6 pm HST Friday for Niihau, Kauai windward, Kauai leeward, Waianae coast, Oahu north shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui windward west, windward Haleakala, Kona, Kohala.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,.








Small craft advisory through 600 pm Thursday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay.
Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

1/15/14 Thursday
NPAC
The Jet Stream’s large scale wind currents 30,000’ up continue for ongoing big winter gale support, thus our series of WNW-NW swell. Jet level Winds are consolidated and low near 30-40 degrees latitude off Japan go all the way past our longitude and extending toward the west coast. Speeds are over 200kts above us. The Jet keeps this productive line up/flow and by Wed the 14th we see 180kts just 900 miles north of us. The Jet breaks up and weakens to 150kts by Friday/Sat with a split forming west of the dateline. The models show another round of 200kts come rapidly off Japan again as the Jet moves our way for another high probability period of big consistent surf. The nose of the Jet is nearly on top of us Sunday. The week of the 19th shows the Jet from Japan to longitudes North of HI. The Jet bounces up and over a High to our NE off the west coast.

Note: The Lows bringing the NW surf have also continued to keep the High pressure far east and its associated ridge over us. This shuts off the trades leading to lite variables and south to Kona flows. This also means haze and onshore seabreezes often compromising midday to afternoon surf sessions. New High moves in from the west allowing trades to return very lightly Sunday-Monday.
Recently: Last Saturday we saw a large gyre taking up most the WPAC from Japan to past the dateline. Within the gyre were 3 spinners one of which is our side of the dateline by Sunday with some 30’ seas. This Eastbound storm was to our North by Monday but not before bring us another round of easy 10’ and reports of 12’ at Sunset Monday from the NW surf at 14 seconds.

Currently, dawn see’s 3-5’ surf and superb South offshores with another rising 13 sec NW hitting 10’ this afternoon. Winds will be fickle but it could stay good.
Source: The next spinner off the gyre spawned Tuesday 1500 miles to our West in the 290-300 band and was partially shadowed. Seas are easy 30’ and the Low has a captured fetch as she’s steered by the Jet. The system weakens Wednesday but not before pushing out some 8-10’ WNW-NW surf at 14 seconds Thursday afternoon and Friday dawn. This one will last longer due to the captured fetch. Another storm to our North next to the preceding Low should add some 6’ NNW into the mix.

Next: a broad area of storminess fills much of the West and Central Pac and by Thursday a gale forms with a short captured fetch nosing to within 800 miles to our NW. The fetch is wide and long in the 300-320 band leading to a long lasting episode of near warning levels of 25’ faces or 15’ Local Saturday peaking in the afternoon (buoys 13’ 14 seconds).

Last: Long range models show a big Low spawning off Japan this Sunday the 18th. The low intensifies as it tracks quickly east while getting seas up to 48’! This whopper reaches the dateline where it occludes (stalls and broadens) Monday in the 290-320 band (partial shadowing up to 294 degrees by Ni’ihau and Kauai). By Tuesday this massive Low is centered just 1200 miles to our NNW and its fetch nosing to within 400 miles. WW3 models "so far" say 20’ swell at 20 sec 2am Wed the 21st with a 20’ 18 sec peak at 8am. The episode won’t last at its peak more than a day due to the fast east track. This Big one’s the best chance so far for the QS Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invite as they need a full day of 15-25’ average 8-4pm. Winds will be light but fickle too ranging from SE to NW. It’ll drop to 12-20’ Thursday. Note: Peahi should hit 30’ local scale or near 45-50’ faces. Leeward shores will see plenty wrap.

SPAC
The Jet: Down under the jet is weak but shows an equatorial bound flow Thursday the 15th-Saturday. Then there’s a weak system that ‘tries’ for form within the trough on the 15th. After this the shuts down and looks more like seasonal averages of 0-1'.

Recent-current: It’s been tiny with mostly knee-thigh high waves with some spotty waist high sets. There was a tiny Low to the NE of NZ a week ago weekend which could keep it 1-2’ from the SSW around late Thursday, Friday and Saturday the 15-17th but buoys aren’t showing yet and south konas are ruining the conditions.

Next: A gale moves NE out from under the SE of NZ by Monday the 12th. This is worth a pulse of 1-2’ 15 sec SSW surf filling Monday the 19th and peaking the 20th again no higher than waist high.

Next: A Low deep in the Taz shows up this weekend and might lead to 1-2’ sets from the SW at 14 sec Sunday the 25th.

Last: We go silent till further notice.

Windward side: Weak 1’ wind swell has been the average for a long time. The numerous winter Lows have been winning out against the Highs where Trade swells arise. The current High has been pushed Eastward and weakened. So we have to depend of the new High coming in this weekend to see if we might see 2’ trade swell.

Tropics: Tropical storm Mekkhala hits the PI just as the Pope arrives.









FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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