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Exclusive Obs: 7am update for Friday 12/19 powered by the Billabong Pipe Masters

Surfs up and rising with filling ENE Trades 10-20mph. XL 15-22 WNW building Sunday and lasting into Monday.

It's on! 8a-430pm. The 3rd Jewel of the Vans Triple Crown. Call the VTC Hotline 808-596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and rising on a new 14 second NW; at dawn it's 6-8' at Sunset but Pipe is just 3-5+ for now all the way to Chuns & Ali'i. Watch Pipe to hit 8' solid. Fair conditions, partly clear.
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West:

Up and rising NW swell at Makaha with 2-4' sets and 4-6'+ expected; conditions nice & smooth; mostly clear.
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Town:

Down and dropping on a remnant South; today it's fairly clean offshores 0-1.5' average (spotty weak 2' possible) at Bowls, Kaisers, Beach Park, Queens; mostly clear.
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Diamond Head:

Up and Holding SSW + SSE swell of 1-2 occ 3' sets mostly or waist high but some head high with bumpy side-offshores as moderate ENE's fill; partly cloudy.
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Sandy's:

Up and Holding on a mix of East trade wind and hints of North wrap plus tiny SSE; bumpy side-offshore 1-2+' to Gas Chambers. It's 1-2+' at Full Pt,, 1/2 point too; fairly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and Holding on a East trade wind swell and some tiny north wrap at a choppy 2-3' esp on the outside from the left to middle and smaller on the far right side with decent sandbars; cloudy.

Weather

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 88°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph E

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
3mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 83°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NNE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
66°F
max: 80°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
28mph NNE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 80°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

North

Saturday
12/20
NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising Evening
3' 20 sec forerunners 8pm
Sunday
12/21
W-NW
Haw: 15-22
Face: 20-38
Rising
12-15' 18 sec
Monday
12/22
NW
Haw: 15-20+
Face: 20-35
Holding
13' 15 sec
Tuesday
12/23
NW
Haw: 12-18+
Face: 18-30+
Dropping Slowly
13' 14 sec
Wednesday
12/24
NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Dropping

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West

Saturday
12/20
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising Later

Sunday
12/21
W-NW
Haw: 12-18
Face: 18-30
Rising

Monday
12/22
W-NW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
Dropping

Tuesday
12/23
NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20
Dropping

Wednesday
12/24
NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
Dropping

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South

Saturday
12/20
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
New 2' 16 sec
Sunday
12/21
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
2' 15 sec later; WNW wrap later
Monday
12/22
S-SW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
2' 14 sec; WNW wrap
Tuesday
12/23
S
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping
+ NW wrap
Wednesday
12/24
S
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

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east

Saturday
12/20
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Sunday
12/21
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
NW wrap
Monday
12/22
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
NW wrap
Tuesday
12/23
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding
NW wrap
Wednesday
12/24
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

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Current Swells:

Saturday   12/20
Primary: Dropping  NW  4-6'
Secondary: Dropping  E-NE  1-2+
Third: Rising  S  1-2+
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   12/20
none
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   12/20
Fair...Trades veering to variable
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Diving Report:

Saturday   12/20
Good for South and for East; fair for West; Poor/fair for N shores

Oahu

SUNSET
Saturday   12/20
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Trades light
good

ROCKY POINT
Saturday   12/20
NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Trades light
good

Pipeline
Saturday   12/20
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades light
good

HALEIWA
Saturday   12/20
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades light
good

MAKAHA
Saturday   12/20
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades very light
smooth

ALA MOANA
Saturday   12/20
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades light
smooth

Waikiki
Saturday   12/20
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades light
clean

Diamond Head
Saturday   12/20
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Sandy Beach
Saturday   12/20
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light
good

Makapuu
Saturday   12/20
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Maui

Hookipa
Saturday   12/20
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades light-moderate
good

Honolua
Saturday   12/20
NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light-moderate
good

Kihei
Saturday   12/20
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Hana
Saturday   12/20
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Lahaina
Saturday   12/20
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades very light
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Saturday   12/20
NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Trades light
good

Majors
Saturday   12/20
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Trades light
good

Poipu
Saturday   12/20
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades light
good

Kapaa
Saturday   12/20
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light
bumpy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Saturday   12/20
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light-moderate
fair

Kohala
Saturday   12/20
N
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Saturday   12/20
S
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades very light
smooth

Hilo
Saturday   12/20
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light
bumpy

Kau
Saturday   12/20
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
fair

Weather

Dec 19, 2014 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Moderate trade winds will keep mostly light showers focused over windward slopes into the weekend. From Sunday night into Monday, a front will spread rain, cold air, and strong northerly winds across the state from the northwest. Unsettled weather will continue through about Tuesday, before returning gradually to trade-wind conditions by the end of next week.

Discussion
Surface observations around the main Hawaiian islands reported mostly moderate trade winds. Guidance strongly supported a decrease in wind speeds through the day, but a few outlying observations suggested that this process may take longer than currently expected. For now, we will follow prior thinking.

The inversion height and strength, cloud cover, and shower activity still approximated climatology. Radar detected slightly fewer showers over the coastal waters, but orographic lifting continued to squeeze out widespread, if generally light, accumulation over rain gauges, despite persistently low precipitable water. Aloft, strong and broad ridging kept cirrus layers from the ITCZ south of the Big Island, but only just.

Guidance still agreed fairly well that a long-wave mid-level trough will dig toward the state from the northwest through the weekend, effectively displacing the ridge by Sunday evening, and then sharpening toward the southwest into Tuesday. This development aloft will support the approach of a cold front at the surface. Through about Sunday, the subtropical ridge will recede toward the east ahead of the front, causing surface winds around the islands to diminish and become more southeasterly. From Sunday night into next week, the front will work its way southeast across the state. With significant support from the digging trough aloft, the front will have the opportunity to produce widespread rain. The push of cold air at low levels behind the front also will bring strong northerly winds.

Perhaps most importantly, a very cold pool of air aloft will accompany the mid-level trough. This cold pool will destabilize the atmosphere significantly, introducing a non-trivial Risk of thunderstorms around Monday, mainly from Molokai northwest. A slight chance of thunderstorms has been introduced into the forecast following the local tool run off of model consensus. Strong vertical wind shear will improve the ventilation of any thunderstorms that do develop, potentially allowing some to become severe. It remained much too early to consider a severe thunderstorm watch, but possible high impacts required continued vigilance with respect to this matter.

The cold pool also will introduce the possibility of winter weather over higher elevations of Maui and the Big Island. This far out, much remained uncertain, but generally speaking the available moisture appeared limited largely to below the summits through most of the forecast period. Where both cold temperatures and available moisture coincided, a slight chance of light snow has been included in the forecast as a place holder. Deeper moisture, or thunderstorms developing further south than expected, could increase the Risk of winter weather over the summits dramatically.

From Wednesday into Friday of next week, the trough aloft will lift out toward the northeast, and conditions will return toward climatology. Recent solutions tended to draw out this process, so the relatively quick return of trade-wind weather in the forecast may be too optimistic, and should be reevaluated as more runs become available. On the whole though, trade-wind weather should return by next weekend.

Aviation
Windward and mauka areas will continue to experience passing showers with embedded isol MVFR conditions. Heavier cloud cover and showers remain over Kauai and Big Island this morning, therefore airmet sierra continues. Elsewhere, airmet sierra has been cancelled.

Moderate and gusty trade winds will start to ease today as a ridge begins to build just north of the islands. This will likely allow for the cancellation of airmet tango for low level turb.

There is also mention for possible upper level turb between fl280 and fl420. A jet, with Max winds to 100 kt, sits just south of Hawaii. At this time have not received any pireps, this will be upgraded to an official airmet if reports are received.

Marine
With winds expected to diminish today, and the large northwest swell slowly passing the state, waters around Kauai and most of Oahu should fall below the criteria for a small craft advisory /sca/ this morning. Elsewhere, the advisory will remain in effect through 6 pm HST today. Conditions should subside further this evening, but then another large northwest will produce SCA conditions again by Saturday night.

An even larger NW swell is expected to arrive on Sunday, likely pushing surf heights into warning levels over both north- and west-facing shores of most islands. Deep low pressure far north of the state may continue to produce swells keeping surf elevated to near the advisory levels through the second half of next week.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai windward, Kauai leeward, Waianae coast, Oahu north shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui windward west, windward Haleakala.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Kaiwi Channel, Maui county windward waters, Maui county leeward waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island windward waters, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.






Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

12/9/14 Tuesday
NPAC
The Jet Stream wind currents 30,000’ up is positioned perfectly for ongoing big winter gale support, thus our swell. Jet level Winds off Japan go all the way past our longitude toward the west coast and sees up to 200kt pockets. By Friday a High moves east off Japan and splits the jet but another bout of 180kts builds all the way once again to our N Sunday with the Jet hovering 30-50 lat range. This is certainly the active phase of the MJO . Another round of deep Jet troughing starts Wednesday the 17th.

Currently, a long bout of big to very big NW swells is happening. Today was the start with 8-12’ surf at Sunset and 6-8 occ 10’ at the Pipe Masters Trials. The culprit Low bombed or dropped its pressure quickly to 960mb up near Kamchatka; she kept tracking east from last Friday-Sunday with some 55kt to hurricane force winds and 35-40’ seas. Thus, the long 23 sec forerunners Monday. Most of the size went to our NE but we still had plenty big hitting top refracting reefs including outer reefs. These storms also cut off our trades as they push down the ridge over Hawaii displaced by a weak cold front approaching from the northwest. The front will move across the island chain Wednesday, followed by a strong high pressure ridge north of the state. The ridge will weaken briefly Friday in response to another passing cold front from yet another large Low. The winds and weather are all connected to the big winter swell events.

Next: by Monday the 8th the whole NPAC was one giant gyre centered in the gulf with its south flank sweeping from off Japan all the way to the west coast. Two Fast east paced short waves move within the large gyre’s SW to S flank enhance the storms for back to back BIG surf. The first nears to less than 1000 miles away Monday with a broad fetch in the 310-330 band. This leads to bigger, longer lasting events as the seas from one storm act upon the next. Watch for 13’ 15 sec WW3 buoys late Tuesday the 9th. Peaking 14’ 15 sec which means surf nearing 18’ Hawaiian Scale or 30+’ faces on the outer reefs and spots like Jaws will be even bigger. In fact, Peahi could reach over 20’ due to its special bathymetry. At least we are claiming 12-18’ wash out reefs inside through Wed and even Thursday dawn. The periods won’t be long however, only 14 seconds and this will limit the episode from going even bigger. Also due to the fast east track of these back to back fetches the directional band of swell will be wide from 310-350 at the later stages.

Next: things quite to normal winter heights Friday of maybe 10’ as a new NW comes in early Saturday. Model still say this Low will bomb with hurricane force 65kt winds just 1800 miles to our NW Wednesday morning with seas up to 48’. This powerful storm broadens and crossing the dateline Thursday getting to under 1200 miles away by Friday. Super long period 20 second forerunners hit Friday nite and with ww3 predicting ocean swell of near 10’ at 16 seconds we should see top reefs hitting 8-12’ maybe even 15’ outside on Saturday. Since this storm moved East across Hawaii’s great circle rays from the dateline to the gulfs we’ll see the NW angle veer NNW Sunday still in the 8-12 occ 15’ range. Gusty NE winds will make side-shore chop thanks another east bound High in between the winter lows.

Next: the next bout of NW swell will be smaller than the recent few. A high pressure hangs to our NW and the Lows are further N off the Kurils and weaker. The Jet hints of another effort to come deep off Japan from Wed the 17th onward, too early to claim specifics. On Monday the 15th we see a complex area of Low pressure in the WNW Pac and by Tuesday the Lows coalesce tracking ESE crossing the dateline into Wednesday. We expect to 5-8’ surf with 14 seconds from this source filling Wed the 17-Friday 19th.
Last: Models really ramp up an XXL storm off Japan Wednesday the 17th with near hurricane force winds and 48’ seas. But it’s 8 days away from forming and could fizzle. Let’s put this one as a heads up for a chancy 15’ 18 sec swell creating surf of 12-18’ midday Saturday the 20th. Tiz the season.

SPAC
The Jet: We have too exceptional equatorial bound flows tho’ Jet winds are high. The first occurred last weekend and the next one occurs this weekend. Both times a Low is formed and steered our way for some out of season S to SSW surf!

Recent-current: We actually had a tiny 1-2.5’ pulse of SSW to South from a tiny fetch far off NZ moving east last Tuesday. Mostly 2’ or waist high but there were some chest highs.
Next: : a unseasonal Low comes up NE off the Ross Ice Shelf Monday the 8th gaining in strength Tuesday to the ENE of NZ with some 30’ seas. Looks like we’ll have a fun 2-3’ maybe even some +’ peak sets later Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday the 15-17th.

Last: One more Low tracks in the Jet from under NZ Friday the 12th through Monday the 15th. The fetch lasted a days and so will our SSW swell filling Friday the 19th but only 1’ 14 sec. The better portion comes from the storm building further East of NZ and more fetch creating higher seas. Saturday the surf should build another notch to near 2’ 16 seconds by evening with surf peaking 2-3’ Sunday the 21st and slightly smaller Monday onward.

Last
Windward side: Weak 2’ wind swell has been the average recently and the N and NW wrap has been over riding wind swell. It looks like a short boost Wednesday-Thursday thnks to a cold front moving down the chain.
It’s back down again with NW wrap taking over. Then Sunday the 14th NE trades are expected to really ramp to 15-30mph due to a new High predicted to hold through Tuesday. Watch for some 2-4’ ENE swell in this window.

Tropics: Former Typhooon ‘Hagupit’ is now a Tropical storm and the worst effects are over. Go HERE for CNN update.







FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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