SURFBOARD FACTORY HAWAII FEB 2019 GENERIC LONG

LST: Lowering NE surf & more NW swells, but all below seasonal average…tiny SW swells and plenty NE hanging around. Wind regime change this work week.

GO DEEPER…the upcoming 10-14 days

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Your LATEST IN-DEPTH VIDEO PRESENTATION of HAWAII’S WAVES & WEATHER by SURF NEWS NETWORK

SNN BIG PICTURE: Sunday 2/17/19 HERE

or Read Below…. 

NPAC 

JETSTREAM: The Jet’s continues for the long haul to be unusually split by the persistent 1030mb Highs to our NW & strong 1040mb Highs to our NE. Currently, the Jet is fattened up off Japan again for its 140-170kts eastbound flow. She splits before the dateline, one branch to the North and one to the south which has sat over Hawaii for weeks; it’s 100kts then tracks all the way to the west coast and mainland USA. All thanks to the High to our North. By Wed. the 20th the High is weakened but reinserts its power by the work weeks end. Japan keeps trying to send us a longer more powerful Jet and finally, it looks like next weekend Sat-Sunday the 23-24 things final look up for the more classic set up and NW ground swells off Japan. Tho’ the southern branch continues over the Hawaii region.

Jetstream: River of wind in our upper atmosphere about 30-35,000ft flowing west to east circling earth in both Hemi’s. It has major impacts on climate, weather, and airmass (Lows and Highs) which help form and steer storms that bring our waves.

Recent-Current: Tons of LARGE NNE to NE swell with the same winds recently…bad for Windward to North shores. Good for Leeward to SE.

More above ‘Warning’ threshold NE this weekend. Saturday had verified obs up to 15′ for isolated Windard shores and up to 8-12’ out at Makapu’u & 6-8’ at Sandys with stiff offshore there.

The North buoy popped 24’ 11sec earlier Saturday! The strong High to our NNE and the nearby Low squeezed the pressure gradient between the two. The 35-45kt main fetch was not direct shot for long but the weaker winds were.

Country’s poor but sizeable NE is getting help from a WNW to NW late and peaking Sunday in the double overhead realm. But the forecast NE trades got delayed and we saw the same cold Fresh N winds chopping Country up.

So finally, a WNW-NW groundswell came late Saturday, peaks Sunday 4-6’ but again slop chop onshores. Plus,  the cross up of NE swell made it even worse. The source Low was in the distant NW Pac midweek; it had some hurricane 65kt pockets; thus, the long 18 sec forerunners seen today Saturday AM. The system tracked into the Bering sea as it weakened, so, this limited size.

In addition to the WNW and NE above, the Low tracked West adding longer 12-14sec NE for Sunday. All these overlapping swells should keep the Windward and adjacent shores well above average (adv levels) into Tuesday.

Next:  We go into a quiet period after the above episodes (in terms of swell production in the open ocean).

Last: Next: The GFS: has a low moving rapidly east off Japan Friday the 22nd to Sunday the 24th. We need them to move slower so the fetch has time to build. So far WW3 has a small to moderate 14 sec 4-6+’ NW filling Tuesday. It will fade fast due to the fast NE storm track. Watch for 3-5 max Wednesday and down from there until Friday’s fantasy.

Next: Another Low is racing eastward from Sunday the 24th off Japan. WW3 earlier Saturday to Sunday was running really Hot on this one: calling for 12’16sec Friday, March 1st. Sure enough, the models totally abandoned the fantasy of 10-15′ plus surf w 1/4-1/3. We have just a 3-5′ NW expected now, and THAT isn’t even sure.

But an overall improvement for these in March are likely in the works with an improved Jetstream steering storms lower and closer to us.

SPAC:

The Jetstream continues producing meridional flows this 7 day. But Winds are limited up to maximums of 120-160kts.

Recent/current: It’s been rideable most every day from out of season systems sending mostly less than 1’ swell at 14-16 sec. Enough for mostly 2’ sets from the Taz to SSW.

Next: No lows of significance occur but an unusual Low (Cyclone Oma) near Vanuatu and Fiji from last Wednesday the 13th has a small chance of pushing up some 2’ WSW around Sunday-Tuesday.  The Low tracked South in the Coral Sea this weekend and will be sending tons of Surf to Australia and NZL.

Next: There’s a weak gale low off New Z this weekend. Possible 2’ SSW surf hits next weekend into Tuesday the 26th.

Last: The huge rare Cyclone named Oma tracks South from off the Island Nation of Vanuatu all work week and could build. By Friday-Saturday 22-23, we could be in the position to pick up a WSW near the end of the month. But the track is not optimal. We’re hoping.

Windward: 

Saturday saw pumping 11-sec surf ranging from 4-8’ plus from the NE to Sandys and 8-12′ even 15′ at the peak for ‘select’ windward reefs (can’t mention names). North to NE winds destroyed surf most everywhere but the Leeward side. it’s still going off Sunday with bad onshore N winds…last day as we expect backing SE winds Monday.

Next: This gets some longer 14 sec NE up to 6’ or 8+’ Sunday and fade some into Tuesday as the Low tracked to our West just to the N of us.

Next: Surf should subside to more normal levels by next weekend and work week of the 25th.

Tropics: We get a Beefcake Typhoon toward the PI by next weekend 23-24th. It’s early to forecast. But the track looks more N to NE so hopefully, it won’t hit…just bring BIG swell.

 

Finally, on Valentines Day, El Nino makes it official…The ‘Little Boy’ is here.

El Niño has looked pretty “imminent” since October, but wait no more.

It’s a Happy Valentines Day for all the climate and surf forecast nerds.

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday 2/14 that after nearly 8 months of flirting with The Little Boy, the climate phenomenon finally stopped making us play the waiting game.

However, before you get too pumped about surf potential and comparisons to 2014/16, this El Niño and its impact on weather & waves will be limited; it’s a weak El Nino.

Scientists have been watching select zones of ocean temperatures of the eastern tropical Pacific known as the NINO3.4 region for more signs of El Niño.

They now can officially declare it “game on” as the temperatures have met the threshold of 0.5 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) above normal for three consecutive months.

Temperatures cleared this mark in October, plus models have remained bullish they’ll stay there into July.

Early February, NOAA said sea surface temperatures in the region were 0.8 degrees Celsius or 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

GO HERE FOR DEEPER DETAILS

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

Surf Climatology HERE

NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories (first number) & Warnings (second number).

All surf height observations & forecasts are for full ‘face’ surf height, or ‘trough to the crest’ of the wave.

North-Facing Shores 15 Feet and 25 Feet

West-Facing Shores – Remaining Islands 12 Feet and 20 Feet

West-Facing Shores – Big Island 8 Feet and 12 Feet

South-Facing Shores 8 Feet and 15 Feet

East-Facing Shores 8 Feet and 15 Feet

Get the latest Central Pac Hawaii HERE

Terms: Eg. The split Jetstream is why all the Gulf and Alaskan storms are sending North swells. There’s that strong, persistent blocking ridge west of the dateline bumped the Jet up and over into the Bering Sea most November.

Note: The spectral density graph in the SNN Buoy Page (link below) shows slivers of forerunners that initial text readings do not ‘show’ till later on written buoy updates. Also, note the vertical graph is not ‘wave height’ rather its a measure of wave energy in hertz (frequency or cycles/sec) for the whole ‘band’ (the distribution of power/period in the total wave energy field/spectrum).

For SNN’s Buoys ‘per shore’ arrangement pls GO HERE

Links: Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov

For more on the Westpac Typhoons GO HERE

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

Tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded to Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).

Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.

Shoaling is the effect by which surface waves entering shallower water change in wave height (or grow) due to speed change (or slow down). Wavelength is reduced when going from deeper to shallower. The ‘energy flux’ must remain constant (nature’s liquid law) so the reduction in wave group (transport) speed is compensated by an increase in wave height (and thus wave energy density). Yeah, I know…waves are complex AND amazing.
Refraction is the change in direction of waves that occurs when waves travel from one medium to another or depth change. Refraction is always accompanied by a wavelength & speed change. Diffraction is the bending & spreading of waves around obstacles (‘reefs’ and openings).

High Surf Advisories & Warnings NWS criteria below in coordination with Hawai’i civil defense agencies & water safety organizations.

All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores – Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores – Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet

‘Travel Time’ Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy
Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles)
Angle: 307 deg

Wave   Wave        Wave   Depth      Wave Direction (deg)———-

Period  Length      Speed  Shallow   295,  305,  315,  325,  335,  345,  355

(s)       (ft)    (nm/h)  (ft)                  Travel Time (hours)———-

10sec. 512.  15.        256.                   17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9,  15.7,   14.0,   11.9

12sec. 737.  18.        369.                  14.5,  14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0,  11.6,  9.9

14sec. 1003. 21.      502.                  12.4,  12.7, 12.5,  12.0,  11.2, 10.0,  8.5

16sec. 1310. 24.      655.                  10.8, ,1 1.1,  11.0,  10.5,   9.8,   8.7,  7.4

18sec. 1658. 27.     829.                   9.6,    9.8,     9.8,   9.4,   8.7,   7.8,  6.6

20sec. 2047. 30.    1024.                8.7     8.9      8.8     8.4    7.8    7.0   5.9

22sec. 2477. 33.    1239.                 7.9     8.1       8.0     7.7    7.1     6.3   5.4

24sec. 2948. 36.    1474.                7.2      7.4      7.3     7.0   6.5     5.8    4.9

Tropical Storm – winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)

Category 1 – winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 – winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 – winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 – winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 – winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

ENSO (The El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is a single naturally occurring climate phenomenon in three states or phases. These involve fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. … When temperatures in the ENSO region of the Pacific are near average it is known as ENSO ‘neutral’, meaning that the oscillation is neither in a warm or cool phase.The two opposite phases, “El Niño”(warmer than average) and “La Niña”(cooler than average) require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon.  “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverse the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, a more active ENSO means more surf.

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