FORECAST DISCUSSION

Synopsis

Locally breezy trade winds will continue as a high pressure persists to our north. Passing low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas through early next week. A pair of tropical cyclones expected to move westward across the central Pacific may affect the main Hawaiian Islands beginning late next week, possibly bringing more active weather.

Discussion

A surface high pressure residing far north-northeast of the islands is bringing moderate to locally breezy trade winds across area this evening. Low clouds embedded in the winds are reaching the state at times, providing some showers mainly to windward and mountain areas. An area of low clouds reached the Big Island earlier this evening will keep the windward areas of that island a little more cloudy and showery through the rest of the night into early Friday morning. Elsewhere mainly fair weather prevails, with some increase in low clouds overnight possible, affecting mainly windward and mountain areas. The high to our north will prevail through early next week and will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds to the islands. Furthermore, forecast models indicate airmass in the island vicinity will stay somewhat stable and drier. Therefore, typical trade wind weather is expected to continue through the weekend into early next week. Latest forecast models still show the possibility of a pair of tropical cyclones moving westward across the central Pacific later next week. It is still too early to tell what, if any, impacts these will have on the islands. The National Hurricane Center in Miami is tracking these systems now, and the first of these systems could cross 140W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility as early as Sunday.

Aviation

High pressure far northeast of the state will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds. An area of enhance moisture will continue to move through windward Big Island tonight, introducing prolonged periods of MVFR conditions. AIRMET SIERRA is posted along the north through east sections of the Big Island. Some showers may spread towards eastern Maui. Elsewhere, expect predominately VFR conditions with only brief MVFR conditions in passing showers.

Marine

A Small Craft Advisory continues for the coastal waters around Maui and the Big Island through Friday afternoon, due to locally breezy trade winds. As the moderate winds are expected to persist, this advisory may need to be extended and adjusted through the weekend. Surf along eastern facing shores is expected to edge up slightly through the weekend as the short period trade wind swell increases under the stronger winds. Otherwise, no significant surf is expected through early next week. By the middle of next week, long period easterly swell generated by potential tropical cyclone activity east of Hawaii may begin to affect the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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AVIATION...Eaton Rest...Hui

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