FORECAST DISCUSSION

Synopsis

Moisture embedded in the trades will cause passing showers mainly for windward and mauka areas overnight. Beyond that the weather pattern will be highly dependent on the tracks and intensities of Hurricane's Madeline and Lester. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for The Big Island and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County due to the proximity of Hurricane Madeline.

Discussion

High pressure centered far north of the area places the islands in a moderate trade wind environment. An area of moisture embedded in the trades will provide for passing showers mainly over windward and mauka areas overnight. The weather pattern for the remainder of the week and on through the weekend will be highly dependent on the tracks and intensities of both Hurricane's Madeline and Lester. The latest forecast for Hurricane Madeline is for it to pass by near or just south of The Big Island Wednesday night and Thursday, and pass by south of the remainder of the state Thursday and Thursday night. For more details on Madeline, please refer to products issued by The Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Winds and heavy rain associated with Madeline are expected to impact The Big Island and possibly Maui County with less wind and rain effects for the rest of the state. For more details on these conditions, please refer to the Hurricane Madeline Local Statement. After the passage of Madeline, there will be a brief period of typical trade wind weather as high pressure remains far north of the area. As we head into the weekend, Hurricane Lester is forecast to pass by just north of the state. For more details on Lester, please refer to products issued by The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Depending on the track and intensity of Lester, heavy rain and winds could impact portions of the state over the holiday weekend. After the passage of Lester, high pressure will rebuild north of the area with a trade wind weather pattern returning.

Aviation

Moisture ahead of Hurricane Madeline will continue to pass through the islands this evening, bringing lowered VIS/CIGS along predominately windward areas. AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration is posted along all north and east slopes. A pinch of drier air will move across the Big Island and Maui in the next few hours, but it expected to be short lived as the peripheral bands of Madeline approach. Madeline is approximately 285 NM east of PHTO, as of 0130z. Overnight, the eastern portion of the Big Island should expect to see prolonged periods of MVFR. Conditions are expected to further deteriorate Wednesday morning as Hurricane Madeline moves closer. Wind speeds are also expected to start to jump up tomorrow, as the gradient between the high pressure north of the state and Madeline tightens. AIRMET TANGO for low level turbulence will need to be considered then

Marine

Winds and seas will be highly dependent on the track and intensity of Madeline and will be highly variable from one location to another. High surf along east facing shores can be expected in association with Madeline. The largest waves will be along east facing shores of The Big Island with heights becoming lower as you go up the island chain. Winds, seas and surf will decrease after the passage of Madeline but will once again increase this weekend in association with Lester.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Hurricane Warning for Big Island. Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for Big Island. Tropical Storm Watch for Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Maui. High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Thursday for Windward Haleakala. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Windward, Oahu Koolau, Olomana, Molokai Windward, Maui Windward West. Hurricane Warning for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters. Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel.

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Synopsis/Discussion/Marine...Burke Aviation...Eaton

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