FORECAST DISCUSSION

Synopsis

A surface high far north of the area will move north through mid- week, then back south through next weekend. A ridge aloft will remain over the islands through the week, with a low aloft forming east of the area next weekend.

Discussion

Satellite loops through 300 PM show that the band of showery low clouds that was over the islands this morning has partly broken up and is moving off to the west. Radars show showers in this band have cleared the Big Island and Maui county and have almost cleared Oahu. Showers still extend about 80 miles upstream of Lihue and will continue to affect Kauai into the evening. After the cloud area moves west of the islands tonight, a fairly typical trade wind weather pattern is expected through the week. Moderate to breezy trade winds will push showers over windward areas, especially during the nights and mornings. Leeward areas of the smaller islands will be relatively dry while there will be afternoon clouds and showers over the leeward side of the Big Island. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu is now issuing bulletins on Tropical Depression 19E. This system is a distant 1150 miles east southeast of Hilo and is moving very slowly. The cyclone is not expected to affect weather in the islands through the week.

Aviation

An area of showery low clouds is producing some MVFR conditions over windward areas of Oahu and Kauai. AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for MTN OBSC over those islands. It may be possible to drop AIRMET SIERRA for Oahu later this afternoon, but the AIRMET for Kauai will likely remain up into this evening. Breezy trade winds will persist through at least the next 24 hours. Expect AIRMET TANGO to remain up for low level turbulence to the lee of the mountains.

Marine

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the windy areas around the Big Island and Maui. Recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF both show winds weakening over the next 24 hours, so we expect to be dropping the SCA starting Tuesday evening. Surf will remain well below the advisory levels on all shores for the next several days. Please see the newly updated Collaborative Surf Discussion in the Marine section on our web site for details.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and waters south of the Big Island.

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