7am OBS, Saturday, Apr. 27th
Breezy and cloudy this morning with passing showers. Moderate East trades tilting ESE and weakening into tomorrow. Small Craft Advisory for most waters from Molokai through Big Island.
Big Picture updated 4/21. Small NNW. Tiny SSW. Medium ENE trade swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Up & Dropping 13 sec NNW. Slight morning sickness, but clean conditions expected by mid-morning as offshore winds pick up. Sunset Pt 2-3'; Rocky Pt 1-2' occ. 3'; Pipe 1'-1.5'; Chuns 1-2' occ. 3'; Laniakea 2-3'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'+. Overcast.West:
Up & Dropping 13 sec NNW + Dropping slow 13 sec SSW. Clean conditions expected all day. Makaha is 1-2' and breaking inside the reef near shore. Mostly cloudy.Town:
Dropping slow 13 sec SSW. Slightly textured w/ a few glassy patches. Waikiki reefs are 0-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-occ. 2'. Mostly cloudy.Diamond Head:
Dropping slow 13 sec SSW + Slowly Dropping trade wind swell wrap. Semi-clean with slight chop from the side-onshore E-ESE winds.. Surf's 1-2 occ. 3' under mostly cloudy skies.Sandy's:
Dropping slow 13 sec SSW + Slowly Dropping trade wind swell wrap. Surf's bumpy under moderate side-onshore winds. Full Pt/Half Pt are 2-4' with some texture and chop. Shorebreak is better at 2-3'+ and focused by Middle Peaks to Gas Chambers. Mostly cloudy.East Makapu'u:
Slowly Dropping 8 sec ENE trade wind swell. Choppy due to moderate E trades. Surf's 2-4' and breaking on the outside left by the rocks to the middle. Keikis is smaller at 2-3'+. Mostly cloudy.Winds
10-20mph East Trade
ESE tilt
5-15mph ESE
leeward land/sea breeze
5-15mph ESE
land/sea breeze
5-15mph ENE Trade
land/sea breeze
5-10mph East Trade
land/sea breeze
North
Primary
Up & dropping 13s NNWHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping Slow 11s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Holding 10s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping Slow 10s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping 10s NNWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Rising 8s NEHaw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Good
West
Primary
Up & dropping 13s NNWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Dropping Slow 13s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping Slow 11s NNWHaw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Secondary
Holding 12s SSWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Up & holding 16s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Holding 10s NNWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Holding 14s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Dropping Slow 10s NNWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 10s NNWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Holding 15s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good
South
Primary
Dropping Slow 13s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Holding 12s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising Later 18s SWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair
Primary
Up & holding 16s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
3'+ later
Primary
Holding 14s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Holding 15s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
east
Primary
Dropping 8s EHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Up & dropping 13s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy
Primary
Holding 8s EHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Holding 8s EHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Rising 6s EHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy
Primary
Up & Rising 7s EHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Current Swells:
Saturday 04/27Primary: Dropping 8s E surf @2-4
Secondary: Up & dropping 13s NNW surf @2-3
Third: Dropping Slow 13s SSW surf @1 occ 2
Marine Warnings:
Saturday 04/27Small Craft Advisory for most waters from Molokai through Big Island.
Sailing Report:
Saturday 04/27Good with E-ESE winds filling at 10-20mph.
Diving Report:
Saturday 04/27North shores: Fair for most zones tho' better for deeper dives with small NW surf, but moderate trades swell and winds; West shores: Good for most zones due to tiny surf and fresh offshore trades. South shores: Fair to good overall for due to small surf and moderate side-shore trades. East shores: Poor due to moderate surf and moderate onshore trades.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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