PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Thursday. Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.

Outlook

Outlook through Wednesday July 05: Breezy trade winds will support slightly elevated choppy surf along east facing shores this week. Small swells from the southeast through southwest will produce near normal summertime surf along south facing shores. Reinforcing long-period southwest swells will result in a slight bump in surf heights Friday and into this weekend. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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Morrison

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
06/26
3NE1246UP11-16EUP
5E612UP
2SSE1224DOWN
1SSW1724SAME
TUE
06/27
3NE1146SAMELOW13-19ESAME
6E724UPLOW
2SSE1124DOWNLOW
1S1524SAMELOW
WED
06/28
3NE1045DOWNLOW13-19ESAME
6E724SAMELOW
2S1435UPLOW
1SSW1724UPLOW
THU
06/29
3NE934DOWNLOW13-19ESAME
6E724SAMELOW
3SSE1346DOWNLOW
1SSW1524SAMELOW
FRI
06/30
2NW1024UPLOW13-19ESAME
6E724SAMELOW
2SSE1224DOWNLOW
1SW1724UPLOW
SAT
07/01
2NW923DOWNLOW11-16EDOWN
5E724DOWNLOW
2SSE1224SAMELOW
2SW1635UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Summer surf conditions. Detailed: Mid Monday on has small breakers for northeast exposures and near nil otherwise. Similar surf is predicted for Tuesday. Strong breezes about 1000 nm away aimed at Hawaii and marginal gales about 1500 nm away aimed to the SE of Hawaii held steady 6/22-25. The tight pressure gradient set up between a NE Pacific surface high pressure cell west of oregon and a heat low over and off the coast of California. Ascat satellite showed strong breezes into Sunday night but down to within moderate to fresh by Monday morning 6/26. This event should hold about the same from 50-70 degrees into Wednesday then slowly drop towards nil by late Thursday. Weak low pressure under a zonal jet stream is modelled to track east along 45°N from near the dateline Tuesday toward the gulf of Alaska. Fresh to strong breezes are modelled to aim at targets NE of Hawaii. Angular spreading could bring in low, short-period breakers from 315-330 degrees Friday into Saturday. Mid Monday on has above average breakers for northeast exposures aforementioned. Similar surf should hold on Tuesday. Trade winds over and E to NE of Hawaii out 1000 nm are slowly increasing 6/26 and are predicted to hold into the fresh bracket through the week. This should bring short-period breakers from windswell up to near the average from 70-90 degrees with a decline over the weekend. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for an explanation for the predicted weaker trades over the weekend. Mid Monday on has breakers below the summer average from a mix of sources within 140-220 degrees. Similar low conditions are modelled for Tuesday. Low, long-period swell are due this week from S to SW. Two fast- moving, storm-force systems tracked east along 60s from SE of Tasmania to SE of New Zealand 6/18-19 and 6/19-21. While SE of New Zealand, highest seas aimed at the Americas. Low swell passing between shadows of the Tasman sea and angular spreading while SE of New Zealand should keep a summer background surf pattern 6/26-29 from 180-220 degrees. A new Tasman sea low pressure area 6/22-24 had higher seas with better aim towards Hawaii. This could give slightly more surf for Saturday 7/1 to near the summer average from 208-220 degrees. A compact low pressure area SE of French Polynesia 6/22-23 nosed the fetch of marginal gales into the subtropics. Proximity compensates for the lack of magnitude and size. It is predicted to build surf locally on Wednesday from 170-190 degrees, peak early Thursday and drop on Friday. Strong breezes to near gales over a wide area SE of French Polynesia in the mid latitudes south of 35°S could keep low, short-period swell locally from 160-180 degrees starting Saturday. Into the long range, the shorter-period SSE event should be long-lived, holding below the summer average for 7/2-4. The Tasman event should decline 7/2 and fade out by 7/4. In the northern hemisphere, short-period NW to NNW surf is suggested for 7/2-3 from weak low pressure in the central north Pacific 6/29-30. No surf beyond tiny to small is expected from eastern tropical Pacific cyclone Dora. Models show a pinch of energy filling in this weekend from near 90 degrees. Trade windswell is modelled to be at a minimum 7/2-3. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, June 28. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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