PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 6 to 9 feet today, lowering to 5 to 7 feet on Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet today, lowering to 3 to 5 feet on Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 ft through Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.

Outlook

Outlook through Wednesday March 29: the current west-northwest swell will continue to ease Thursday night and Friday. Surf associated with this swell will remain below advisory levels along north and west facing shores. Small and choppy surf will continue along east facing shores through the rest of the week due to moderate trade winds. A large west-northwest swell is forecast to arrive Saturday, peak Saturday night into Sunday, then slowly ease early next week. Warning-level surf along north and west facing shores is possible around the peak of this swell. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

Footer

JACOBSON

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
03/20
6WNW141012DOWN11-16ENESAME
2NNE1023DOWN
4ENE612SAME
TUE
03/21
5WNW14810SAMEMED11-16ESAME
2NNE1023DOWNLOW
4ENE612SAMELOW
WED
03/22
5WNW14810SAMELOW11-16ESAME
4ENE612SAMELOW
THU
03/23
4WNW1368DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
4E612SAMELOW
FRI
03/24
4WNW1268DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
3N1346UPLOW
4E712UPLOW
SAT
03/25
3WNW1146DOWNLOW13-19EUP
5WNW201012UPLOW
2N1124DOWNLOW
5E724UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Steady WNW swell. Detailed: Mid Monday on has breakers near the active season, September to may, average, which happens to be close to the March average. A slight decrease is expected on Tuesday. Strongest low pressure areas are favoring the NW Pacific west of the dateline 3/15 into this week giving a dominant WNW swell direction locally. Weaker, fast-moving systems NNW to NE of Hawaii are adding lower, shorter-period surf from NNW to NNE. A low pressure strengthened to hurricane-force 3/15 ESE of Tokyo. The winds slowly weakened as the system tracked ENE 3/15-16. Long-period swell from this phase of the weather pattern peaked locally from 280-310 degrees 3/19 within the 16-22°S wave period bands. The dominant wave periods favor 14-16 seconds on 3/20 from this source. The low pressure occluded well west of the dateline 3/16-17 as the slow-moving centered hovered near 45°N, 160°W. Gales set up over the 300-315 degree band nosing to near 2000 nm away 3/17-18. The system has been nearly stationary as it weakened 3/19-20 beyond 2000 nm away. It should make for a long-lived WNW to NW event locally. Wave watch iii shows moderate-period swell from this source filling in on Tuesday. Surf from 300-315 should hover near to a notch below the average through Wednesday, with a slow decline Thursday into Saturday from the same direction. A new winter-caliber low pressure system is modelled to form east of Tokyo 3/21 with an eastward track. It is expected to stay stronger further east, or closer to Hawaii. In turn, local surf from the new event should be larger than for the more recent event. Long-period forerunners should bring surf back up to average by Saturday afternoon from 280-310 degrees. More discussion is given in the long range below. Closer to Hawaii, systems have been intensifying as they track eastward to the north of Hawaii. This is adding some shorter- period swell from within NNW to NNE. Surf is waning on 3/20 from 000-030 degrees from one such system mid last week. Another one passed the longitudes of Hawaii Saturday beyond 900 nm out. It could keep small surf from 350-010 degrees locally for Tuesday into Wednesday. Models show a system deepened further west to the NNW of Hawaii Tuesday and passing the longitudes of Hawaii late Wednesday. This could give a slightly larger event starting Friday from 345-360 degrees, peaking Friday night, and dropping Saturday from 350-010 degrees. Mid Monday on has breakers from trades at levels below the trade windswell average. More of the same is predicted for Tuesday. More northerly exposures on the east side have higher surf aforementioned. The axis of the surface high pressure N to NE of Hawaii is expected to remain close enough to Hawaii so the fetch of trades is short and narrow. This should keep breakers from windswell below average through the week. Hints for an upward trend over the weekend. Mid Monday on has near nil energy from the southern hemisphere and small breakers on more westerly exposures. The latter should decrease on Tuesday. The mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere have slowly been increasing in extra-tropical, cyclonic activity 3/12-20. None of the sources between Tasmania to south of French Polynesia are expected to take southerly surf locally beyond tiny to small this week. In the long range, a long-wave jet stream trough east of New Zealand is modelled to have a series of short-wave troughs and associated surface low pressures systems track eastward to the SE of New Zealand 3/20-26 spaced 1-2 days apart. Fetches are modelled to have highest seas aimed toward the americans. The pattern will be monitored closely for potential of southerly swell increase locally within 3/27-31 out of 180-200 degrees. It should at least bring surf up to summer background levels next week. In the northern Pacific, a deep low pressure to near 968 mb is modelled to move slowly near the dateline at 45°N 3/23-25. This should bring the gales to within 1500 nm. In turn, surf is predicted to climb above average from within 280-320 degrees by late Saturday 3/25 into 3/27. Easterly windswell is predicted to increase towards the average within 3/26-28. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, March 22. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

Footer

NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

Back to Top