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Cholos 728×90 generic

645am Update OBS Thursday March 21st

Light dawn Trades filling to 10-20 under scattered to broken clouds. A marginal High Surf Adv for dropping NW.

Moderate to High NW. Small North, small Easterly trade + a tiny SW Taz. 808-596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3 & 5 recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping 14 sec NW + Holding tiny North. Sunset is 5-7+' with fair shape. Pipe is solid and fun at 6+' with Pipe Bodysurfing Event ON! Form is fair. Chuns 4-6' to Haleiwa the same. Smooth Light Trade offshores and mostly cloudy.
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West:

Down and dropping 14 sec NW. Makaha is calm smooth with 3-5' sets under scattered clouds.
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Town:

Down and holding 13 sec SW. Surf is clean, glassy early at 0-1 barely occ 2' w/ fair-good shape on select sets from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers (Solid crowds). Threes-Pops-Queens-Public's 0-1 rare 2' under partly cloudy skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Holding 12 sec SW pulse per 30 min. Surf is clean with lite trades and 1-2' maybe some 2.5 or chest high sets with fair-good shape under scattered-broken clouds.
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Sandy's:

Down and dropping N wrap + an 9 sec ENE trade swell plus occ pulses of small SSW. Surf is clean, good at 1-2' around Middle Peaks. Smaller from Full Pt-Half and Pipelittles... under fairly cloudy skies.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and dropping 11 sec N wrap + 9 sec ENE trade swell. Currently, surf is pretty good at 1-2.5' to the inside sandbars from left-middle into the sandbars to Keiki's is now under broken clouds.
PICO.ACA.BLOODLINE

Winds

Thursday
Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Friday
Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Saturday
Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Sunday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Monday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

North

Thursday
03/21

Primary

Dropping Slow 15s NW
Haw: 5-7 occ +
Face: 8-12 occ +

Secondary

Dropping 11s N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Fair to good

Friday
03/22

Primary

Holding 13s NNW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10

Secondary

Rising Afternoon 15s NNW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Fair to good

Saturday
03/23

Primary

Holding 14s NNW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18

Secondary

None  
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Sunday
03/24

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18

Secondary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Fair to good

Monday
03/25

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14

Secondary

Dropping 10s N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Fair to good

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West

Thursday
03/21

Primary

Dropping Slow 15s NW
Haw: 3-5 occ 6
Face: 5-8 occ 10

Secondary

Dropping 12s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Friday
03/22

Primary

Holding 13s NNW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

Rising Slow 15s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Saturday
03/23

Primary

Holding 14s NNW
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+

Secondary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Sunday
03/24

Primary

Rising 14s NNW
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+

Secondary

Dropping 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Monday
03/25

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+

Secondary

Rising 18s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
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South

Thursday
03/21

Primary

Dropping 12s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good to excellent

Friday
03/22

Primary

Rising Slow 15s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Saturday
03/23

Primary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Sunday
03/24

Primary

Dropping 14s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Monday
03/25

Primary

Rising 18s SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

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east

Thursday
03/21

Primary

Holding 9s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Friday
03/22

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Saturday
03/23

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Sunday
03/24

Primary

Rising 9s ENE
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Monday
03/25

Primary

Holding 9s ENE
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

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Current Swells:

Thursday 03/21


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Marine Warnings:

Thursday   03/21
High Surf Adv for N and West (marginal)
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Sailing Report:

Thursday   03/21
Poor early Leeward side but improving by 10am with light ENE filling 10-20mph
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Diving Report:

Thursday   03/21
Poor from sizable NW for North shores and fair-good for isolated deeper West shores early + good for south shores; fair to good for 'inside reefs' and fair for 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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