630am OBS, Happy Aloha Friday, September 22nd
Showery again this morning w/ sun returning in the afternoon. Light E-ENE trades filling to fresh paces towards lunch. Small Craft Advisory for Molokai-Big Island channel and Big Island leeward & SE waters.
Big Picture updated 9/18. Average East trade wind swell. Small SW & SSE, Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).

North Shore:
Holding a micro NE trade swell wrap. It's semi clean due to light to moderate side-offshores but mostly flat. Best for diving, paddling, sailing and fishing. Sunset 0-1/2'; Rocky Pt 0-1/2'; Pipe flat; Chuns flat; Laniakea 0-1/2'; Ali'i Beach Park flat. Mostly cloudy w/ showers.
West:
Holding 13 sec SSW + Holding 10 sec SSE. Surf's clean early due to light offshores. Makaha is 0 occ - 1' on the sets. Broken clouds.
Town:
Holding 13 sec SSW + Holding 10 sec SSE. Clean and near glassy early. Waikiki reefs are 0-1'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-occ. 2'. Partly cloudy w/ showers.
Diamond Head:
Holding 13 sec SSW + Holding 10 sec SSE + Holding trade swell wrap. A little less bumpy than yesterday but still chopped up by breezy side shore winds. Surf's 1-2'+. Partly cloudy w/ showers.
Sandy's:
Holding 13 sec SSW + Holding 10 sec SSE + Holding trade swell wrap. Bumpy from the moderate side shore trades, particularly on the reefs. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'+. Shorebreak is more manageable at 1-2'. Scattered clouds and showers.
East Makapu'u:
Holding 7 sec East trade wind swell. Choppy onshore 10-2 trades for now, picking up later. Surf's 1-3' breaking on the outside left by the rocks. Keikis is smaller at 1-2'+. Partly cloudy w/ showers.Winds
15-25+mph NE Trade
15-25+mph NE Trade
10-25mph ENE Trade
10-20mph ENE Trade
10-20+mph ENE to E
North
Primary

Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary
Up & Rising 12s NNWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Dropping Later 7s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
2' later
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair
West
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Rising Slow 21s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Up & Rising 12s NNWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Up & Rising 18s SWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair
Primary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Secondary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair
South
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
brisk NE trades
Primary
Rising Slow 21s SWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
brisk NE trades
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Isolated 3' later
Primary

Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
east
Primary

Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Dropping Later 7s ENEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
slightly choppy
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Choppy

Current Swells:
Friday 09/22Primary: Holding 13s SSW surf @1-2
Secondary: Holding 7s ENE surf @1-3
Third: Holding 6s NE surf @0-1/2

Marine Warnings:
Friday 09/22Small Craft Advisory for all waters, coastal and channels due to strong NE trades thru Saturday

Sailing Report:
Friday 09/22Good w/ moderate to fresh ENE trades filling in 15-25+ mph.

Diving Report:
Friday 09/22North Shore: Good w/tiny surf and moderate to fresh trades filling in by late AM, best bet for deeper dives. West shores: good for most zones and best for deeper dives due to small surf, moderate trades under scattered clouds. South shores: Fair for most zones and best for deeper dives due to small SW swell, moderate to fresh offshore trades & partly cloudy skies. East shores: Poor for most zones with average surf and fresh onshore winds and scattered-broken clouds.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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