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Upper Cervical 728

645am OBS Sunday 1-21-18 powered by Upper Cervical Hawaii

Nice morning with isolated showers and light-moderate Easterly trades clocking more ENE by mid-day (5-15+mph). Broken clouds for Windward/ Mauka & North, scattered-broken clouds for Leeward. High Surf Adv for East shores.

BIG PICTURE UPDATE: for Sunday 1.21. Rising small-moderate NNW & tiny South, Easing mod.-large trade swell. Call 596-SURF 7a, 12p, 3p, 5pm

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North Shore:

Up and rising 15 sec NNW & mix of ENE wrap. Surf is 2-4' occ. 5' and clean with good form and nice long walls for top reefs. Energy will peak early afternoon, maxing out at 6'. Sunset Pt. 3-5' occ.+, Pipe/Ehukai 2-3' occ.+, Chuns 2-3' occ.+; Laniakea 3-4' ; Ali'i 2-3' under cloudy skies.
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West:

Up and rising on the new NNW. Makaha is 1-2' occ. 3' and smooth with small, inconsistent sets with good shape slowly peeling down the reef. Light trades early under partly clear skies.
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Town:

Up a hair and rising on the 14 sec South. Surf is 0-1' maybe an occ. 1.5' and showing a little morning sickness/ warble early. Extremely slow/ weak with top sets struggling to hold shape from Ala Moana to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens mostly 0-1' and super lully under cloudy skies.
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Diamond Head:

Up and rising slowly the 14 sec S + down and dropping the ENE trade swell wrap. Surf is 1-3' and showing decent energy from the ENE wrap. Slightly bumpy with peaky, crumbling sections and quick rides; under cloudy skies.
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Sandy's:

Up and rising slowly the 14 sec S/ down and dropping the mix of ENE trade swell. Surf is 1-3' with light semi-bump. Top sets are fast and pitching quick with the short period energy from Full+1/2 Point and 1-2' occ. 3' from Middle Peaks to Chambers under cloudy skies
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East Makapu'u:

Down & dropping the 10 sec ENE trade swell. Surf is 2-4' occ.+ with mild choppiness and fair form. Critical drops into large closeout sections and breaking from the outside Left to the middle; broken clouds and isolated showers.
Cholos 728×90 generic

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 84°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
18mph ENE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 86°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 86°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph ESE

Range:
5-15+mph East Trade

Range:
5-15+mph East Trade

Range:
5-15+mph East Trade

Range:
5-10mph East Trade

Range:
5-10mph East Trade
to variable

North

Sunday
01/21
N-NW
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
Rising
TREND: 4' 14 sec; smooth, broken clouds
Monday
01/22
WNW+NNW
Haw: 6-8 occ +
Face: 10-15 occ +
Rising
5' 18 sec + old 4' NNW+NE
Tuesday
01/23
W-NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Holding
7' 15s
Wednesday
01/24
W-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping
5' 14s
Thursday
01/25
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping
2.5' 12s
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West

Sunday
01/21
N-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
TREND: 4' 14 sec; glassy, passing clouds
Monday
01/22
W-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising

Tuesday
01/23
W-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Holding

Wednesday
01/24
W-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Dropping

Thursday
01/25
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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South

Sunday
01/21
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding
TREND: 1' 14 sec; fairly clean, clouds
Monday
01/22
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising
1.5' 15 sec
Tuesday
01/23
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping
2' 12 sec
Wednesday
01/24
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Dropping

Thursday
01/25
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

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east

Sunday
01/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Dropping Slow
TREND: 6' 10 sec; mild chop, broken clouds
Monday
01/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-3 occ +
Face: 2-5 occ +
Dropping

Tuesday
01/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Wednesday
01/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising Later

Thursday
01/25
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding

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Current Swells:

Sunday   01/21
Primary: Rising  NW  2-4' surf at 14 sec
Secondary: Dropping  E-NE  2-4' surf at 10 sec
Third: Rising  SSE+SSW  TREND: 0-1 occ 1.5' surf at 14 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Sunday   01/21
High surf advisory East facing shores.
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Sailing Report:

Sunday   01/21
Fair to Good for with light ENE Trades veering variable with seabrz later
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Diving Report:

Sunday   01/21
Fair for deeper areas along Northern shores, Good for West, Fair-good for inside reefs of the East or Windward sides; best bet: good for isolated South shores.

Oahu

SUNSET
Sunday   01/21
NW
Haw: 3-4 occ +
Face: 5-7 occ +
ENE Trades light
good

ROCKY POINT
Sunday   01/21
NW
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
ENE Trades light
fairly clean

Pipeline
Sunday   01/21
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades light
fair to good

HALEIWA
Sunday   01/21
NW
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
ENE Trades light
semi-clean

MAKAHA
Sunday   01/21
NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
ENE Trades light
smooth

ALA MOANA
Sunday   01/21
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades light
clean

Waikiki
Sunday   01/21
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades light
smooth

Diamond Head
Sunday   01/21
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades light-moderate
fairly clean

Sandy Beach
Sunday   01/21
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Makapuu
Sunday   01/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate
mild choppiness

Maui

Hookipa
Sunday   01/21
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Trades very light
clean

Honolua
Sunday   01/21
NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades very light
fair to good

Kihei
Sunday   01/21
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades very light
glassy

Hana
Sunday   01/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades very light
mild choppiness

Lahaina
Sunday   01/21
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades very light
fair to good

Kauai

Hanalei
Sunday   01/21
COMBO
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Trades light
fair to good

Majors
Sunday   01/21
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades very light
smooth

Poipu
Sunday   01/21
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light
fair to good

Kapaa
Sunday   01/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades light-moderate
mild choppiness

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Sunday   01/21
E-NE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
East Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Kohala
Sunday   01/21
NW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades very light
smooth

Kona
Sunday   01/21
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades very light
good

Hilo
Sunday   01/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Trades very light
slightly choppy

Kau
Sunday   01/21
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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