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DUKES OCEANFEST 2017

645am OBs for Thursday August 17th Powered by the 16th Dukes Oceanfest

A fairly nice day on the way: Scattered-broken clouds, occ. squalls for Windward-Mauka-adjacent shores. ENE trades filling to moderate (10-20mph) w/ Small craft advisory for channels 'round Maui/Big I.

BIG PICTURE UPDATE TUESDAY. Holding average SSE & small lowering ENE trade swell. Call 596-SURF (7am, Noon, 3 updates & 5p recap/trend)

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North Shore:

Down & holding micro 8 sec NE swell wrap. Surf is 0-1'. Laniakea tops it with weak 1'. Sunset area-Rocky Pt. 0-1', Pipe-OTW flat, Chuns is 0', Haleiwa 0'; clean w/ early light-moderate ENE trades filling under broken clouds.
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West:

Down & holding 14 sec SSE. Makaha is smooth offshores @ 0-1' mostly with rare 2' sets behind da reef. Focusing west reefs 2.5' & more slightly consistent under clear to scattered clouds.
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Town:

Up & Holding 14 sec SSE. Surf is 1-2.5' mostly, maybe some 3' or head highs. Nice clean lines due to light-moderate offshore ENE trades are filling from Kewalos to Courts, Ala Moana-Rock Piles-Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens are 1-2.5' under scattered clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Down a notch and Holding 14 sec SSE. Surf is 1-2.5' with 3' sets with decent lines. Semi Bumpy with light-moderate side-offshore filling under scattered to broken clouds.
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Sandy's:

Down a notch & Holding 14 sec SSE & down on the 8 sec trade swell. Surf is powerful at 2-3' (could be a plus' off-on) with biggest sets from Middles to Gas Chambers. Semi clean with light-moderate side-offshore trades filling. Full Point-1/2 Pt. are about 3' under broken clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Down & Holding the 8 sec trade swell. Surf is 1-2-3' outside left to middle. Keiki's side is 1-3' with the early chop from moderate-fresh ENE trades under broken-overcast skies.
UPPER CERVICAL

Weather

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 93°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 93°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 93°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph NE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 93°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
80°F
max: 93°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

Range:
10-20mph NE Trade
small crft advsry for chnls
Range:
10-20mph NE Trade

Range:
10-20mph NE to ENE

Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade

Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade

North

Thursday
08/17
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping
4' 8 sec; clean, partly clear
Friday
08/18
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping

Saturday
08/19
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Dropping

Sunday
08/20
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Holding

Monday
08/21
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Holding

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West

Thursday
08/17
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising late Afternoon
2' 14 sec; smooth offshore; scattered clouds
Friday
08/18
S-SE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Saturday
08/19
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
08/20
S-SE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Monday
08/21
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Expected

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South

Thursday
08/17
S-SE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising late Afternoon
2' 14s ; clean offshore, partly cloudy
Friday
08/18
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising
1.5' 15sec
Saturday
08/19
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
1.5' 14sec
Sunday
08/20
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping
1.5' 12sec
Monday
08/21
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Expected
.5' 14sec SW
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east

Thursday
08/17
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
4' 8 sec onshore chop; broken clouds
Friday
08/18
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Saturday
08/19
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Sunday
08/20
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Monday
08/21
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising

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Current Swells:

Thursday   08/17
Primary: Holding  E-NE  1-2-3' surf at 8 sec
Secondary: Holding  S-SE  1-2.5' surf at 14 sec
Third: Rising Evening  S-SE  3' surf at 15 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Thursday   08/17
Small craft advisory for channels round Maui and Big Is
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Sailing Report:

Thursday   08/17
Good for all shores with moderate ENE Trades filling in.
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Diving Report:

Thursday   08/17
Good for North shore, good for West and fair-good for deeper South shores. Fair for select East shores on inside reef.

Oahu

SUNSET
Thursday   08/17
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades moderate
smooth

ROCKY POINT
Thursday   08/17
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Pipeline
Thursday   08/17
NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

HALEIWA
Thursday   08/17
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

MAKAHA
Thursday   08/17
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades light
smooth

ALA MOANA
Thursday   08/17
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Waikiki
Thursday   08/17
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Diamond Head
Thursday   08/17
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
ENE Trades moderate
bumpy

Sandy Beach
Thursday   08/17
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate
fair to good

Makapuu
Thursday   08/17
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Thursday   08/17
NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Honolua
Thursday   08/17
NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
good

Kihei
Thursday   08/17
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
good

Hana
Thursday   08/17
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Thursday   08/17
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Thursday   08/17
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate
fair to good

Majors
Thursday   08/17
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate
fair to good

Poipu
Thursday   08/17
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kapaa
Thursday   08/17
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Thursday   08/17
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Thursday   08/17
S-SE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
good

Kona
Thursday   08/17
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Trades moderate
smooth

Hilo
Thursday   08/17
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate
bumpy

Kau
Thursday   08/17
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE: Update for Tuesday, Aug 15

NPAC: Main deal is the High pressure for windswell. The Jet is weak, disorganized with no chance of ground swell from our usual WPAC to Central Pac zones. Most energy flowing zonally under the gulf. We see again this same zone get some depth end of the week. But nothing off Japan nor the Central Pac. A weak flow finally comes of Japan but 100mph winds won’t cut it. At the end of the 7 day the Jet is bouncing over a large High to our NW with its typical summer domination.

#1 Recently and currently: It’s been barely a foot. But Tuesday gets a ramp of windswell from upstream and long term local trades. Select reefs see 2’ or waist high waves with ok energy. Good for mid-August. It fades Thursday onward.

SPAC: JET: The North branch has most the energy which isn’t the branch that typically leads to good SSW. We see energy esp. in the Taz sea tho’ but models are showing much effect. 2 large areas of High pressure are hindering chances as well. The south branch is super weak and zonal or west to east. No ‘significant’ surf is expected for the rest of August. But we will see continued average waist to chest high with a few head high events off and on. Note: The Jet does finally point NNE far SSE by Friday but isn’t allowing for sideband SSE swell.

#1 Recent: A new 17 sec South popped buoys at 3 am. Sets are up to 3’ but with long waits. Prior to this new event, we’ve had a background fading 12 sec SSE of waist-lower chest high at top reefs. It continues to stay Windy with 15-25mph trades. We have some weather off and on pushing over from Windward/Mauka.

#2 Current: New Swell comes from a powerful but zonal tracking Low far SE of New Zealand 8/6-7 last Sunday-Monday. Our event will end up being partially sideband’ surf at 15 sec veering SSE thru the event from with forerunners filling with 17sec forerunners early 3 am today Tuesday. Surf peaks Tuesday afternoon-Wed. 8/15-16 at summer averages of shoulder to head high.

#3 Next: Low under Tahiti Thursday 10th should bring us some smaller 15 sec SSE filling late Thursday at .5’ 15 sec forerunners. Friday it’s shoulder high holding through Sat the 19th. It already rang on the American Samoa Buoy.

LONG RANGE: The models show total shut down this week. There’s something in the Taz this weekend. But no confidence for SW. We must wait till 21st to see if anything pops up down under. Meaning there’s nothing in the 14-day outlook outside of the swells above.

TRADE SWELL
Trades swell finally bounce back to seasonal averages of 1-3 at 8 sec along most Windward outer reefs + shore pound. This is thanks to the High pressure’s upstream trades though this slightly longer period won’t last much beyond Wednesday. We head back into below averages thanks to lighter Trades Thursday-Weekend.

TROPICS: Hurricane season began June 1st-Nov 30th. We have Tropical Storm Banyan 2400 miles west with some west tracking and building. Winds are about 110. There’s no threat to land. And no swell expected.









The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
.
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
Tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded to Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
.
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.


A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Right now we have Tropical Storm (TS) Nanmadol approximately 163 nm east-northeast of Taipei,
Taiwan, and had tracked at 14 knots over the past six hours (As of 3pm Monday 7/3. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 50 knots gusting to 65 knots. We are not expecting swell from this region.

There are 3 disturbances in the East North Pac…1st, by Mexico 625 miles south of the tip of Baja. The other 2 have 0 chance of becoming more than a depression.

Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.





NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.

All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy
Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles)
Angle: 307 deg

Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------

Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355

(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------

10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9

12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9

14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5

16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4

18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6

20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9

22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4

24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9



Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria

Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Foot faces (8' Local) 25' Foot faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Foot (7' local) 20 Foot (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Foot (4'+ local) 12 Foot (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Foot (4'+ local) 15 Foot (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.

Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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