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FreeSurf Mag. Natalina Boda 7/25/17

645am OBs for Tuesday July 25th Powered by the 10th Honolulu Surf Film Festival

Cloudy but improving later. ENE trades moderate 10-20 mph. Small craft for Big Is & Maui East shores.

Small to Moderate East swell & small SSE. Call 596-SURF (7am, Noon, 3 updates & 5p recap/trend)

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North Shore:

Down & dropping tiny 8 sec NE. Isolated Brown Water. Surf remains is in the 0-1' range with light trades early so semi bumpy side offshores, Sunset Pt.-Rocky Pt. 0-1', Pipe-OTW flat-1', Chuns is 0-1', Laniakea 0-1.5' (trimming bush blocking Cam asap), Haleiwa flat; cloudy.
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West:

Down/holding SSE. Makaha is 0-1' with good conditions: glassy to light offshores and barely breaking on the inside reef. Westside focal reefs are 1 occ. 2'; still plenty clouds.
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Town:

Down & Holding 10 sec SSE. Surf is small 1-2' occ 2.5' at shallow channel reefs with fair form & semi clean lines but some side-offshore East trades from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Rock Piles to Kaisers, Threes-Pops-Queens are 1-2+' under clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Down & Holding the 10 sec SSE. Surf is 1-2' occ. trying to push 3' & bumpy sideshores; fair shape & energy and plenty clouds.
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Sandy's:

Down & holding the mix of SSE & E trade swells. Surf is clean 1-2-3' with moderate sideshore E NE trades; plenty closeout sections short rides from Full Pt-1/2 Pt & P. Little's; broken to overcast clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Down & holding the 10 sec East swell. Surf is 2-3' and choppy with sets breaking from the outside left-to middle and filling the inside sandbar; Keiki's is smaller 1-2+' waves under plenty clouds.
UPPER CERVICAL

Weather

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 92°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph ENE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 90°F

Mostly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

Range:
5-15+mph NE Trade

Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade

North

Tuesday
07/25
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping
Isolated Brown Water; lite side 0ffshore, clouds
Wednesday
07/26
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping

Thursday
07/27
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Holding

Friday
07/28
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Holding

Saturday
07/29
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Holding

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West

Tuesday
07/25
S-SE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Rising early Evening
Clean, cloudy
Wednesday
07/26
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping

Thursday
07/27
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Friday
07/28
SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Expected
1' 15 sec
Saturday
07/29
SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
2' 14 sec
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South

Tuesday
07/25
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Holding
Slightly bumpy sideshore, cloudy
Wednesday
07/26
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Thursday
07/27
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Friday
07/28
SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising
1' 15 sec
Saturday
07/29
SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
2' 14 sec
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east

Tuesday
07/25
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping
7' 8-10 sec; ; choppy, cloudy
Wednesday
07/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Dropping

Thursday
07/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Friday
07/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Saturday
07/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Tuesday   07/25
Primary: Dropping  E  2-3' surf at 10 sec
Secondary: Dropping Slowly  S-SE  1-2.5' surf at 10 sec
Third: Rising Later  S-SW  2' surf at 14 sec eve
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   07/25
small craft adv for channels of Maui and Big I.
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   07/25
Fair to good for all shores with moderate Trades.
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   07/25
Poor for North shore due to brown water run off. Fair for select West and South shore. Poor for most East shores.

Oahu

SUNSET
Tuesday   07/25
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate
slightly bumpy
Brown water
ROCKY POINT
Tuesday   07/25
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades moderate
Sectiony

Pipeline
Tuesday   07/25
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
ENE Trades moderate
fair

Pipeline
Tuesday   07/25
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

HALEIWA
Tuesday   07/25
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
NE Trades moderate
fair

MAKAHA
Tuesday   07/25
S-SE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate
good

ALA MOANA
Tuesday   07/25
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
East Trades moderate
slightly bumpy

Waikiki
Tuesday   07/25
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
East Trades moderate
fair to good

Diamond Head
Tuesday   07/25
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
East Trades moderate
bumpy

Sandy Beach
Tuesday   07/25
ENE+SSE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
East Trades moderate
bumpy

Makapuu
Tuesday   07/25
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades moderate
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Tuesday   07/25
E-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades moderate
bumpy

Honolua
Tuesday   07/25
E-NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
fair to good

Kihei
Tuesday   07/25
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Hana
Tuesday   07/25
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Tuesday   07/25
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light-moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Tuesday   07/25
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades light-moderate
poor to fair
brown water?
Majors
Tuesday   07/25
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Poipu
Tuesday   07/25
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Trades moderate
fair

Kapaa
Tuesday   07/25
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Tuesday   07/25
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Tuesday   07/25
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
good

Kona
Tuesday   07/25
S-SE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Trades light
good

Hilo
Tuesday   07/25
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades moderate
bumpy

Kau
Tuesday   07/25
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE 2017: Update for Monday July 3rd

NPAC: The Jet is weak and disorganized with little to no chance of ground swell thru the 7 day.

#1 Recent: It’s been tiny 1’ of refracting and diffracting wind swell. Plus, some barely noticeable 10 sec NW from generic westerly surface winds in the Central NPAC last Thursday-Friday.

#2 Next: Another weak round of the same short period NNW could reach us Mon-Tue the 10-11th. But like the preceding one most of it passes NE.

#3 Last: There is no #3 through the 19th.

SPAC

#1 Recent: We had fun run of SW Taz fill super slow late Friday the 30th so we had plenty spots reaching 3+’ sets Saturday but the lulls were ludicrous at times as most Taz swells tend to be. The lines/walls were long tho’ thanks to the long 16 sec. The source Low was up to hurricane speeds as they targeted the Taz June 22nd.

#2 Next: A 45kt Low far off Chile a couple Friday’s ago pumped up Peru and South America big time. We’re only just now seeing in town this Holiday M-Tuesday is some head high surf at 14 sec from the SE (2.5’ deep water swell). Tho’ most spots don’t take a SE as much as a SW there’s some pretty fun sets for tops spots (Kewalos, Courts, Ala Moana, Kaisers, DH…). What’s also helping us is the added energy from a storm SSW of Tahiti around the same time as the SE Low.

# 3LAST: A surface 40kt low to the south of French Polynesia today 7/3 is only about 3200 miles South of us. The proximity should help bring in some head high waves. WW3 predicts a 1.5’ deep water 15 sec South to get here Saturday the 8th. Surf should push 3’ into Sunday as it shifts SSE.

#4=Heads up only: Slight chance of a real “advsry’ 18-20sec event starting to show on Tuesday the 18th peaking Wednesday (deep water 3’ at 16sec) would bring top refracting reefs to double overhead. We’ll know more by early next week.

TRADE WIND SWELL

Trades swells of 3’ with some 4’ off and on along Windward shores hung round all last week-weekend from upstream and local Trades. Our typical 8sec trade swells have been averaging 2-4’ due to the Summer High pressure in the N pacific basin. This has kept fresh to strong trade with some variation from occas. local low pressure events. It looks like 3’ is here through the upcoming weekend.

TROPICS: Hurricane season began June 1st-Nov 30th.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

A tropical depression forms when a low pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Right now we have Tropical Storm (TS) Nanmadol approximately 163 nm east-northeast of Taipei,
Taiwan, and had tracked at 14 knots over the past six hours (As of 3pm Monday 7/3. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 50 knots gusting to 65 knots. We are not expecting swell from this region.

There are 3 disturbances in the East North Pac…1st, by Mexico 625 miles south of the tip of Baja. The other 2 have 0 chance of becoming more than a depression.

Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.





NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.

All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy
Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles)
Angle: 307 deg

Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------

Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355

(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------

10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9

12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9

14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5

16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4

18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6

20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9

22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4

24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9



Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria

Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Foot faces (8' Local) 25' Foot faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Foot (7' local) 20 Foot (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Foot (4'+ local) 12 Foot (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Foot (4'+ local) 15 Foot (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.

Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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