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Blue Planet Red 720 Dec17

645am UPDATE OBS 12/17 Sunday powered by HIC Surfboard Blow Out

Beautiful, brisk morning with early light SW winds turning variable by mid-day. Broken clouds for Windward/ Mauka & North, scattered clouds for Leeward.

BIG PICTURE: Updated Thursday 12/14/17. Rising moderate NW, holding tiny South, & easing moderate-high NE trade swell. Call 596-SURF 7a, 12p, 3p, 5pm

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North Shore:

Up and rising on the 15 sec NW and slowly dropping the mix of 9 sec NNE. Surf is 3-4' occ. 5' and good with light offshore and smooth conditions. Nice shape and clean lines with well-groomed faces. Sunset 2-4', Pipe/Backdoor 3-4' occ. 5' (glassy, good), Chuns 2-3'+, Laniakea 3-4' (nice shape); Haleiwa, 2-4' occ.+ under partly cloudy skies. (Billabong Pipe Masters is on, 0800 start!)
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West:

Up and rising the new NW. Makaha is 1-3' and glassed off early with calm-light SW winds but turning slightly mushy/ bumpy by mid-morning with trades veering to variable; mostly clear.
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Town:

Down and holding the 9 sec South. Surf is 0-1.5' with light SW winds veering to variable and bumpy onshore texture from Kewalos to Courts, Ala Moana to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens mostly 0-1’ & semi cloudy.
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Diamond Head:

Down & Holding the small South. Surf is 0-1.5' and poor with light onshore bump. Inconsistent, weak, crumbly 1-2 wave sets. Light SW winds early turning to sea-breezes by mid-morning under clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Down and holding the 9 sec NE windswell. Surf is 1-3' occ.+ with semi-bump and poor-fair form. Light side-shore early turning to mushy sea-breezes mid-morning from Full and 1/2 Point; smaller 1-3' Middle Peaks to Chambers & scattered clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and holding 9 sec NE & mix of rising N. Surf is 1-3' with clean offshore sets breaking outside the far left and filling the inside sandbar. Critical drops into quick ramp sections. Light SW winds early turning to sea-breezes by mid-morning under cloudy skies.
Used Surfboards Ding Repair Dec 9.17

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph SW

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
3mph SSW

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 84°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
8mph WNW

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph N

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 82°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph N

Range:
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes

Range:
5-10mph Variables
to seabreezes
Range:
5-10mph Winds Fickle
NW flow?
Range:
10-25mph WNW winds

Range:
10-25mph NW winds

North

Monday
12/18
W-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Holding
7' 12s
Tuesday
12/19
N-NW
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+
Rising early Afternoon
8' 11sec
Wednesday
12/20
N-NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Holding
8' 11sec
Thursday
12/21
N-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping
close storm
Friday
12/22
NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
Rising
9' 12sec-12' 11sec
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West

Monday
12/18
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Holding

Tuesday
12/19
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising early Afternoon

Wednesday
12/20
NW
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Holding

Thursday
12/21
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Friday
12/22
NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Rising

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South

Monday
12/18
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping

Tuesday
12/19
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Rising
1' 16 sec
Wednesday
12/20
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding

Thursday
12/21
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Friday
12/22
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping

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east

Monday
12/18
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Tuesday
12/19
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
12/20
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
12/21
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Friday
12/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Monday   12/18
Primary: Dropping  W-NW  3-5' surf at 12 sec
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  1-3' wind swell at 10 sec
Third: Dropping  S-SW  0-1.5' surf at 9 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   12/18
None
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Sailing Report:

Monday   12/18
Poor to fair with winds veering to variable then seabreezes
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Diving Report:

Monday   12/18
Poor North to fair for deeper West shores. Poor for adjacent shores, too. South shores best. Fair for select East dives.

Oahu

SUNSET
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
Kona South
fairly clean

ROCKY POINT
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
Kona South
fair to good

Pipeline
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
Kona winds
Offshore

HALEIWA
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Kona winds
clean

MAKAHA
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Kona South
smooth am...mushy pm

ALA MOANA
Monday   12/18
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Kona winds
slightly bumpy

Waikiki
Monday   12/18
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Calm to Konas
poor

Diamond Head
Monday   12/18
COMBO
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Kona South
weak

Sandy Beach
Monday   12/18
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to Konas
slightly bumpy

Makapuu
Monday   12/18
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Calm to seabreezes
fairly clean

Maui

Hookipa
Monday   12/18
COMBO
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Konas light-moderate
fair to good

Honolua
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Kona South
fair to good

Kihei
Monday   12/18
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Kona SW
slightly bumpy

Hana
Monday   12/18
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Kona winds
fair to good

Lahaina
Monday   12/18
NW+S
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Kona winds
smooth am...mushy pm

Kauai

Hanalei
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Kona SW
Offshore

Majors
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to Konas
smooth am...mushy pm

Poipu
Monday   12/18
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Kona SW
bumpy

Kapaa
Monday   12/18
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Kona SW
fair to good

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Kona winds
clean

Kohala
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Kona South
smooth am...mushy pm

Kona
Monday   12/18
NW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Kona SW
slightly bumpy

Hilo
Monday   12/18
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Kona South
fair

Kau
Monday   12/18
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to Konas
Side-Onshore

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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