7am OBS, Saturday, July 12th
Mostly sunny with scattered clouds favoring windward and mauka. Moderate E-ENE trades filling to fresh paces by afternoon. No marine warnings.
Near-average ENE trade wind swell. Small SSW mix....with a little wind wrap to country. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

North Shore:
Small trade wrap. Mostly clean and glassy thanks to lite side-offshores ENE trades early. Sunset 0-1.5'; Rocky Pt 0-1.5'; Pipe 0-1/2'; Chuns 0-1'; Laniakea 1-occ. 2'; Ali'i Beach Park mostly flat; Partly cloudy.
West:
Up & Holding 18 sec SSW + Holding 14 sec SSW. Surf's clean due to moderate offshores all day. Makaha is 0-1.5' behind the reef (with solid 2' at west side focal reefs). Partly cloudy skies.
Town:
Up & Holding 18 sec SSW + Holding 14 sec SSW. Mostly clean from the lite-moderate side-offshore E-ENE trades filling. Waikiki reefs are 0-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-occ. 2' under mostly sunny skies.
Diamond Head:
Up & Holding 18 sec SSW + Holding 14 sec SSW + trade wrap. Textured and slithgly bumpy from the lite-moderate side shores. Surf's 1-2 very occ +. Mostly sunny skies.
Sandy's:
Up & Holding 18 sec SSW + Holding 14 sec SSW + trade wrap. Semi-clean over the exposed reefs due to fresh side shore ENE trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2' occ. 3'. Shore break is 1'-2' occ. 3' looking best from Middle Peaks under scattered clouds.
East Makapu'u:
Dropping 7 sec ENE trade wind swell. Bumpy and slightly chopped up from the moderate onshore trades. Surf's 1'-2' occ. soft 3' breaking on the outside left and middle. Keikis is smaller at 1-2' occ. + under mostly cloudy skies.Winds
10-20+mph ENE to E
5-15+mph ENE to E
5-15+mph ENE to E
10-20mph East Trade
10-25mph ENE Trade
North
Primary
Dropping Slow 8s NEHaw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Secondary
NoneHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
Focal reefs only
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
NoneHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Up & dropping 8s NEHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
West
Primary
Up & holding 18s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Dropping Slow 8s NEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary
Up & holding 16s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair side-offshores
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair-Good side-offshore
South
Primary
Up & holding 18s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising Slow 20s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
2.5' later
Primary
Up & holding 16s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair side-offshores
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
east
Primary

Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy
Primary

Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Up & Rising 8s ENEHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Current Swells:
Saturday 07/12Primary: Dropping 7s ENE surf @1-2 occ 3
Secondary: Up & holding 18s SSW surf @1 occ 2
Third: Dropping Slow 8s NE surf @0-2

Marine Warnings:
Saturday 07/12None

Sailing Report:
Saturday 07/12Good due to moderate to fresh ENE trades at 10-20+mph.

Diving Report:
Saturday 07/12North Shore: Fair to Good (best bet: deeper dives) due to tiny wind swell wrapping under fresh side-offshore trades and fairly cloudy skies. South: Fair overall (deep dives best; select protected areas still ok) due to small SW-SSW and moderate to fresh ENE trades under fairly cloudy skies. West: Good due to small surf and moderate trades and broken clouds in the AM. East: Poor-fair for most zones with solid moderate surf and fresh trades...protected prime zones best bet..
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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