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Cholos KARAOKE

615am OBS, Monday, July 14th

A beautiful morning with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Light to moderate ENE trades filling to moderate paces towards lunch with sea breezes for the leeward coasts by late morning. No marine warnings.

Big Picture updated 7/13. Tiny NW. New South + small, old South. Small ENE trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Rising 13 sec NW + Holding NE trade wind swell wrap. Smooth and nearly glassy conditions thanks to the lighter offshore wind but not much surf. Sunset 0-1'; Rocky Pt 0-1'; Pipe 0-1/2'; Chuns 0-1/2'; Laniakea 0-1'; Ali'i Beach Park flat. Scattered clouds.
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West:

Up & Rising 18 sec South + Holding 14 sec South. Surf's clean early but late morning sea breezes will mush things out. Makaha is 1-occ. near 2' and lapping inside the reef. Mostly clear skies.
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Town:

Up & Rising 18 sec South + Holding 14 sec South. Clean conditions due to light to breezy offshore trades. Waikiki reefs are 1-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-occ. 2'. Watch for near 3' sets late this afternoon. Partly cloudy skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Up & Rising 18 sec South + Holding 14 sec South + Holding trade wind swell wrap. Some texture and bumps from the moderate sideshore wind. Surf's 1-2' at takeoff. Scattered clouds.
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Sandy's:

Up & Rising 18 sec South + Holding 14 sec South + Holding ENE trade wind swell wrap. Bumpy and chopped up over the exposed reefs due to breezy sideshore trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'. Shorebreak is also 1-2' but cleaner. Few clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 6 sec ENE trade wind swell. A little choppy and bumpy due to the light to moderate onshore wind. Surf's 1-2' and breaking along the shore across the bay. Mostly clear skies.
HSFF 2025 728X90

Winds

Monday
Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

Tuesday
Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

Wednesday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Thursday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Friday
Range:
10-25mph ENE to E

North

Monday
07/14

Primary

Up & Rising 12s NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Holding 6s NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
1.5' late afternoon
Tuesday
07/15

Primary

Up & dropping 11s NW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

Rising 8s NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair-Good side-offshore

Wednesday
07/16

Primary

Dropping 9s NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Up & holding 7s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Thursday
07/17

Primary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Friday
07/18

Primary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

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West

Monday
07/14

Primary

Up & Rising 18s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Up & Rising 12s NW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair side-offshores
Tuesday
07/15

Primary

Up & dropping 11s NW
Haw: 0
Face: 0

Secondary

Up & Rising 16s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair-Good side-offshore
Wednesday
07/16

Primary

Holding 14s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 9s NW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair to good
Thursday
07/17

Primary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Friday
07/18

Primary

Holding 12s SSE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
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South

Monday
07/14

Primary

Up & Rising 18s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 14s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair side-offshores
2.5' later
Tuesday
07/15

Primary

Up & Rising 16s S
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
3'+ later
Wednesday
07/16

Primary

Holding 14s S
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Thursday
07/17

Primary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Friday
07/18

Primary

Holding 12s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Rising 19s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair

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east

Monday
07/14

Primary

Holding 6s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Tuesday
07/15

Primary

Rising 7s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Wednesday
07/16

Primary

Up & holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Thursday
07/17

Primary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Friday
07/18

Primary

Rising 8s NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

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Current Swells:

Monday 07/14
Primary: Holding 6s ENE surf @1-2 
Secondary: Up & Rising 18s S surf @1 occ 2 
Third: Up & Rising 12s NW surf @0-1 
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   07/14
None
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Sailing Report:

Monday   07/14
Good due to moderate ENE trades at 10-20+mph.
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Diving Report:

Monday   07/14
North Shore: Fair to Good (best bet: deeper dives) due to tiny surf under moderate side-offshore trades and partly cloudy skies. South: Fair overall (deep dives best; select protected areas still ok) due to small surf and moderate ENE trades under partly cloudy skies. West: Good due to tiny surf and light to moderate trades. East: Fair for most zones with small surf and moderate trades...protected prime zones best bet.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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