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Cholos KARAOKE

615am OBS, Wednesday, July 2nd

Clouds and rain this morning. Light to moderate East-ENE trades early. No marine warnings.

Big Picture updated 6/29. Solid average South. Small ENE trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Down and holding micro trade wrap. Clean, smooth light offshores but almost no surf and looking like a lake. Sunset flat; Rocky Pt flat; Pipe flat; Chuns flat; Laniakea 0-1/2'; Ali'i Beach Park flat. wet clouds.
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West:

Down and dropping 13 sec South to SSW. Smooth early due to light offshores and a mix of sea breezes later pending land heating. Makaha is 0-1-2'+ occ. 3' and rogue 4' sets at west side focal reefs. Cloudy skies with some rain.
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Town:

Down and dropping 13 sec South to SSW. Clean light offshores early.. Waikiki reefs are 1-2' occ. solid 3'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 2-3' very occ. 4. Cloudy with some wet roads.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Down and dropping 13 sec South to SSW. A little bumpy and ruffled due under a light side-offshore trades. Surf's 2-3' occ. 4'. Clouds and a few showers.
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Sandy's:

Down and dropping 13 sec South to SSW + dropping 2' ENE trade wind swell wrap. Bumpy and textured over the exposed reefs due to a light to moderate sideshore E trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 2-3'... Shorebreak is at 2-3' occ. 4' for now and slamming from Cobbles to Middle Peaks. Cloudy and a few showers.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding a small 8 sec ENE trade swell. Bumpy and textured from the light to moderate onshore E winds. Surf's 1-2' on the shorebreak and spread out through the bay. Cloudy with occ. rain.
HSFF 2025 728X90

Winds

Wednesday
Range:
5-15+mph ENE Trade

Thursday
Range:
10-20+mph ENE Trade

Friday
Range:
10-25mph ENE to E

Saturday
Range:
10-25mph ENE to E

Sunday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

North

Wednesday
07/02

Primary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin
rain
Thursday
07/03

Primary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Friday
07/04

Primary

Holding 6s NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Saturday
07/05

Primary

Rising 6s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Sunday
07/06

Primary

Up & holding 7s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
windy

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West

Wednesday
07/02

Primary

Holding 13s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Thursday
07/03

Primary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Friday
07/04

Primary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 6s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Saturday
07/05

Primary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Rising 6s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Sunday
07/06

Primary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Up & holding 7s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
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South

Wednesday
07/02

Primary

Holding 13s S
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
focal reefs; rain
Thursday
07/03

Primary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Rising Slow 16s SW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good

Friday
07/04

Primary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Up & holding 15s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair

Saturday
07/05

Primary

Holding 12s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 14s SW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair

Sunday
07/06

Primary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 16s SW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair

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east

Wednesday
07/02

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy

Thursday
07/03

Primary

Holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy

Friday
07/04

Primary

Rising 6s ENE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Saturday
07/05

Primary

Up & Rising 6s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Sunday
07/06

Primary

Up & Rising 7s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

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Current Swells:

Wednesday 07/02
Primary: Holding 13s S surf @2-3 
Secondary: Holding 8s ENE surf @1 occ 2 
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   07/02
No marine warnings.
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   07/02
Fair due to light-moderate East trades of 5-15+mph. Poss afternoon leeward sea breezes mixing this afternoon.
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   07/02
North Shore: Fair to Good (best: deeper dives) due to clouds and rain.... no real surf under light to moderate side-offshore trades. South: Poor overall (deep dives only) due zones (select protected areas still fair-good) due to small surf and light to moderate onshore trad to fairly solid surf with light to moderate East trades, then midday sea breeze mix in. West: Fair to good due to small to moderate surf (best: deeper dives) and lite offshore trades + sea breezes by lunch. East: Fair for most zones but clouds and rain an issue..

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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