6am OBS, Thursday, October 24th
A gorgeous morning with few to scattered clouds. Light East trades filling to near moderate paces with afternoon sea breezes for the leeward coasts. No marine warnings.
Big Picture updated 10/20. Fun NNE. Small SSW. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Up & Rising 11 sec NNE. Super clean, smooth conditions due to very light offshores. Sunset 1-3'; Rocky Pt 1-3'; Pipe 2-3'; Chuns 1-2'+; Laniakea 2-4'; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'. Few clouds.West:
Holding 14 sec SSW + Minor North wrap. Clean conditions under very light offshore winds, but not much surf and sea breezes filling in towards late morning. Makaha is 1-1.5' and lapping inside the reef. Mostly clear skies.Town:
Holding 14 sec SSW. Nearly glassy conditions due to light offshore winds. Waikiki reefs are 1-occ. 2'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2' occ. +'. Mostly clear skies.Diamond Head:
Holding 14 sec SSW. Still mostly clean conditions but more textured under a light to moderate breeze. Surf's 1-2' occ. + (a chance of a 3') at takeoff. Few clouds.Sandy's:
Holding 14 sec SSW + Up & Rising NNE wrap. Clean conditions due to really light winds early. Full Pt/Half Pt are 2-4' and occasionally breaking at Generals. Shorebreak is cleaner but smaller at 2-3'. Mostly clear skies.East Makapu'u:
Up & Rising 11 sec NNE. Some bumps and texture due to light to moderate trades early but still cleaner than usual. Surf's 2-4', breaking on the outside middle, and peeling into the Keiki shorebreak. Few clouds.Winds
10-20mph East Trade
Midday sea breezes
10-20+mph East Trade
10-25mph East Trade
15-25+mph East Trade
15-30mph East Trade
North
Primary
Rising 13s NEHaw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Secondary
Up & holding 15s NWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping 12s NEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Dropping 12s NWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping 11s NEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Rising 18s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good offshores
3' later
Primary
Up & holding 13s NHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Rising 7s NEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
windy
Primary
Dropping 12s NHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Up & Rising 8s NEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
windy
West
Primary
Rising 13s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Rising 20s SHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping 12s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Up & holding 17s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores
Primary
Dropping 11s NEHaw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Secondary
Holding 15s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores
Primary
Up & holding 13s NHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Holding 13s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
windy
Primary
Rising 16s SHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Dropping 12s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
South
Primary
Rising 20s SHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair-Good side-offshore
2' later
Primary
Up & holding 17s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Holding 15s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Holding 13s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary
Rising 16s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 12s SHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
east
Primary
Rising 13s NEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Up & dropping 10s NNEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
bumpy
5'+ evening
Primary
Up & dropping 12s NEHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Rising Later 6s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy
Primary
Dropping 11s NEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Up & Rising 7s EHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Lumpy-Bumpy
+ R 18s N&E@1-2
Primary
Up & Rising 8s EHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Up & holding 15s EHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Lumpy-Bumpy
+ U H 13s N@2-3
Primary
Up & Rising 8s ENEHaw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Secondary
Dropping 14s EHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Lumpy , Bumpy, Grumpy
+ H 12s N@1-2+
Current Swells:
Friday 10/25Primary: Rising 13s NE surf @2-4
Secondary: Rising 20s S surf @1-1.5
Marine Warnings:
Friday 10/25Trend: No marine warnings.
Sailing Report:
Friday 10/25Trend: Good due to moderate trades.
Diving Report:
Friday 10/25Trend: North shores: Good for most zones, excellent for deeper dives due to small NNE to NE surf. and lite-moderate trades. West shores: Good for most zones, excellent for deeper dives due to very small surf. South shores: Good overall and esp. for deeper zones, due to small SSW surf with lite trades under mostly clear skies. East shores: Poor overall due to above average surf and moderate onshore trades.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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