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Surf n Sea 728×90 generic

645am OBS Sunday 2-18 Powered by Cholos Salsa Dance Party Sunday

Overcast and wet with scattered showers and occ. thunderstorms throughout the day. Light and variable out of the NE turning to seabreezes toward mid-day.

BIG PICTURE: Thursday Evening Update 2/15. Small rising NW, tiny trace SW and background trade swell. Call 596-SURF 7a, 12, 3, 5pm recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Up and rising 12 sec NW. Surf is 2-4' occ. 5' and fairly clean early. Fair shape with crumbly, onshore sections. Calm to light NE flow veering more onshore by mid-day. Sunset to Rocky Pt 2-3' occ. 4', Pipe-Backdoor 3-4' occ. 5' & Chuns 3-4' occ. 5'; Laniakea 3-4' occ.+, Ali'i 2-3'+ under overcast skies. Caution: lightning in the area.
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West:

Up & rising 12 sec NW. Surf is 1-2'+ with smooth offshore and slightly inconsistent. Nice shape and long lines early. Turning mushy this afternoon with side-onshore seabreezses. Some occasional + sets arriving late today. Buffalo Big Board Surf Classic-42 is ON: Pres. Day Wkend.
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Town:

Holding the Tiny SSW. Surf is 0-1-2' and clean with slow, inconsistent sets; fair shape but barely breaking for most spots from Ala Moana to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens mostly 0-1 occ 2' sets under broken clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Down and holding background SSW. Surf is 0-1' occ. 2' and glassed off early with weak, 1-2 wave sets. Long waits between top sets. Light and variable early shifting to seabreezes toward mid-day; under mostly cloudy skies.
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Sandy's:

Down and holding the tiny SSW. Surf is 1-2' and breaking mostly inside with tiny closeout shorebreak. Fair early with calm-light variables shifting toward seabreezes by mid-day; under dark clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and holding the 8 sec ENE wind swell. Surf is 1-2' with mostly short interval wind swell breaking on the inside sandbar. Quick drops into immediate closeout sections for top sets. Conditions turning slightly bumpy with mid-day seabreezes; under broken clouds.
Upper Cervical Hawaii 728×90

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 83°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
8mph E

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 85°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
8mph E

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph S

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 85°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
13mph ENE

Range:
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes

Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade
to variable to seabrz
Range:
5-10mph Variables to sea-breezes

Range:
5-10mph ENE Trade

Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade

North

Sunday
02/18
N-NW
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
Rising
6' 12 sec; clean, overcast
Monday
02/19
WNW+NNW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Rising
3'+ swell@16-15s=6' surf 2pm
Tuesday
02/20
WNW+NNW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Rising Slow
5' 14s + new 1-2' 22-20s WNW
Wednesday
02/21
W-NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Rising
6-8' 18-16sec
Thursday
02/22
W-NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Dropping
7' 15s
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West

Sunday
02/18
N-NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising
Smooth, clouds; Buffalo Big Board
Monday
02/19
WNW+NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
Buffalo Big Board
Tuesday
02/20
WNW+NNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising Slow

Wednesday
02/21
W-NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Rising

Thursday
02/22
W-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Holding

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South

Sunday
02/18
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding
1' 12 sec; clean, heavy clouds
Monday
02/19
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Tuesday
02/20
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Wednesday
02/21
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Thursday
02/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

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east

Sunday
02/18
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising Later
5' 9 sec; bumpy; overcast
Monday
02/19
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising
5' 9s
Tuesday
02/20
NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
7' 10s
Wednesday
02/21
NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding

Thursday
02/22
E-NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
7' 9sec
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Current Swells:

Sunday   02/18
Primary: Rising  NW  2-4' occ. 5' surf at 12 sec
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  1-2' surf at 8 sec
Third: Holding  S-SW  TREND: 1-2' surf at 12 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Sunday   02/18
None
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Sailing Report:

Sunday   02/18
Poor-fair with light NE winds veering variable then light onshore
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Diving Report:

Sunday   02/18
Stay out of Brown Water. Fair for deeper North shores; Fair out West and improved for South. fair to good for isolated East or Windward inside reefs.

Oahu

SUNSET
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Variables to sea-breezes
good

ROCKY POINT
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Variables to sea-breezes
good

Pipeline
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
NE Trades very light
fair to good

HALEIWA
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth am...mushy pm

MAKAHA
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth am...mushy pm

ALA MOANA
Sunday   02/18
W-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Variables to sea-breezes
fair to good

Waikiki
Sunday   02/18
W-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Calm to seabreezes
fair to good

Diamond Head
Sunday   02/18
W-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth

Sandy Beach
Sunday   02/18
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Variables to sea-breezes
good

Makapuu
Sunday   02/18
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Variables
smooth
smooth

Maui

Hookipa
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 1-3 occ +
Face: 2-5 occ +
Variables
smooth

Honolua
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Variables
good

Kihei
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Variables
smooth am...mushy pm

Hana
Sunday   02/18
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Variables
smooth

Lahaina
Sunday   02/18
W-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Variables
smooth am...mushy pm

Kauai

Hanalei
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 3-5 occ +
Face: 5-9 occ +
Variables
smooth
TREND:
Majors
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Variables
smooth am...mushy pm
TREND:
Poipu
Sunday   02/18
W-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Variables
slightly bumpy
TREND:
Kapaa
Sunday   02/18
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Variables
smooth
TREND:

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Sunday   02/18
NW+NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Calm to light
smooth

Kohala
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Calm to light
smooth am...mushy pm

Kona
Sunday   02/18
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to light
smooth am...mushy pm

Hilo
Sunday   02/18
NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Calm to light
smooth

Kau
Sunday   02/18
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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