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JJ Dolans

645am OBS Sunday 9/23 Pwrd by JJ Dolans

Calm-light early ESE Kona winds veering to variable by mid-day. Scattered to broken clouds for Leeward and mostly cloudy Windward/ Mauka.

Holding small South+NNW, easing WNW, and background ESE wind swell... Call 596-SURF: 7a, 12, 3 & 5p recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Up and holding the small 14sec NNW + down & dropping the tiny 10sec WNW. Surf is 1-2' occ.+ and clean early with focusing reefs seeing good shape with fun sections but inconsistent from Sunset Pt. to Rocky Pt.. Pipe zone 1-2+'; Laniakea 1-2+' (Nice shape) , Chuns 1-2' wave & Ali'i Beach flat-2' under broken clouds
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West:

Up a hair and holding the mix of trace WNW and reinforcing SSW. Makaha is smooth flat-2' with light offshore turning mushy by mid-day as Kona winds veer to variable. Top sets breaking on the inside reef under partly clear skies.
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Town:

Up and holding the 11-13sec SSW and mix of 9sec SSE. Surf is fairly clean 1-2'+ maybe an occ. 3' and fair-good with fun, rippable sections. Slightly lully and turning mushy by late-morning with incoming sea breezes from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers (crowds), Threes-Pops-Queens 1-2' occ.+ under scattered-broken clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Up on the small SSW, down slightly & holding the mix of SSE and trade swell wrap. Surf is fairly clean 1-2.5' occ.+ on the takeoff with fair shape but showing some morning sickness. Slightly lully with peaky sections slowly passing through the lineup.
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Sandy's:

Holding mix of South and small wind swell. Surf is fair 2-3' with decent sandbars and average shape early from Full Pt to Pipe-littles. Fun drops into closeout ramp sections for Gas Chambers under scattered-broken clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 8-10 sec E trade swell. Makapu'u is bumpy 1-3' and breaking just outside the left rocks and Keiki side a little smaller, 1-2.5' with broken clouds.
Surf n Sea New 728 Aug 2018

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 92°F

Mostly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph SE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 94°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph S

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 95°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph S

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
80°F
max: 94°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
8mph SSW

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
79°F
max: 92°F

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Wind:
13mph ENE

Range:
5-10mph SE
veering seabreezes
Range:
5-10mph South
midday seabreeze
Range:
5-10mph South
seabreeze
Range:
5-10mph South
seabreeze
Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade

North

Sunday
09/23

Primary

Holding 14s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Dropping 10s WNW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good offshores
Smooth, broken clouds
Monday
09/24

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
smooth

Tuesday
09/25

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Offshore

Wednesday
09/26

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Average

Thursday
09/27

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

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West

Sunday
09/23

Primary

Holding 14s NNW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 13s SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good offshores
Monday
09/24

Primary

Holding 16s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Diving , Paddling
Tuesday
09/25

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0

Secondary

Rising early Afternoon 18s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Offshore
Wednesday
09/26

Primary

Rising Slow 18s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Thursday
09/27

Primary

Rising Slow 16s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good
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South

Sunday
09/23

Primary

Holding 13s SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Holding 11s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
Slightly bumpy, scattered clouds
Monday
09/24

Primary

Holding 16s SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Diving , Paddling

Tuesday
09/25

Primary

Rising early Afternoon 18s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 16s SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good offshores

Wednesday
09/26

Primary

Rising Slow 18s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

Thursday
09/27

Primary

Rising Slow 16s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

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east

Sunday
09/23

Primary

Holding 7s ESE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Onshore
Light bump, broken clouds
Monday
09/24

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Tuesday
09/25

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Wednesday
09/26

Primary

Holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Onshore

Thursday
09/27

Primary

Rising 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Onshore

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Current Swells:

Sunday 09/23
Primary: Holding 13s SW surf @1-2 occ + 
Secondary: Holding 14s NNW surf @1-2 occ + 
Third: Holding 7s ESE surf @1-2+ 
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Marine Warnings:

Sunday   09/23
None
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Sailing Report:

Sunday   09/23
poor to Fair early with calm to light paced SE winds veering Variable with midday to afternoon seabreezes
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Diving Report:

Sunday   09/23
Improving but still remnant Isolated Dirty Water Runoff: Fair-good for isolated North and West shores. Fair-good for isolated south and fair-good for isolated 'inside reefs' and poor-fair for most 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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