VANS TRIPLE CROWN 2018 728X90 GENERIC

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Vans Triple Crown

645am OBS Saturday Nov 17th

Overcast with scattered showers and early light-moderate pace NE trades filling to fresh (10-25mph) by mid-morning. Small craft & flash flood advisories posted.

Dropping moderate NNW + holding tiny SSW & average NE trade swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, 12, 3 & 5p recap-forecast.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping the 13sec NNW. Surf 3-4' occ. 5' with larger sets up to 6' for focusing reefs. Poor overall with stormy side-onshore conditions. Hawaiian Pro is on (8am start)! Sunset Beach 3-4' occ.+. Pipe-OTW zone 3-4'; Laniakea 3-5' occ.+', Ali'i Beach 3-5' under dark clouds and scattered showers.
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West:

Down and dropping 13sec NNW. Makaha is clean offshore with 2-3' sets breaking outside the reef and fair-good under cloudy skies.
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Town:

Holding a small 13sec SSW. Surf is 0-1.5' and weak. Smooth, almost lake-like early with minimal energy. Nice shape and cruisy rides for top sets from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Kaisers, Threes-Pops-Queens-Publics 0-1' occ.+ sets under cloudy skies.
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Diamond Head:

Holding a small SSW. Surf is 0-2' small and inconsistent. Poor conditions with small, crumbly whitewater sections & early moderate NE trades filling to fresh (10-25mph). Long waits between top sets under overcast skies.
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Sandy's:

Down and dropping the sizeable NNW wrap + holding a tiny trade & SSW. Surf is slightly bumpy 2-3' from Full Pt. with fair shape and decent sandbars inside providing small, sectiony closeouts under dark clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and Holding N wrap + the tiny 8sec ENE trade swell. Makapu'u is 2-4' & slightly bumpy overall from the Middle to Keiki's...near 3' but closing out under clouds.
Surf n Sea Blow Out Nov-Jan19

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 86°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 87°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph E

Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Range:
10-20+mph NE Trade

Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

North

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Rising 14s N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Fair-Good side-offshore

Monday
11/19

Primary

Dropping 11s N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Fair-Good side-offshore

Tuesday
11/20

Primary

Rising 14s NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10

Secondary

Dropping 10s N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Fair-Good side-offshore

Wednesday
11/21

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Rising 8s NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Good

Thursday
11/22

Primary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Dropping 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good

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West

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+

Secondary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair-Good side-offshore
Monday
11/19

Primary

Dropping 11s N
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore
Tuesday
11/20

Primary

Rising 14s NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore
Wednesday
11/21

Primary

Dropping 12s NNW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

Rising 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good
Thursday
11/22

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 11s NNW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Good
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South

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 11s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Good

Monday
11/19

Primary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Rising Slow 16s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good

Tuesday
11/20

Primary

Dropping 12s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 14s SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good

Wednesday
11/21

Primary

Rising 14s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Thursday
11/22

Primary

Holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Good

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east

Sunday
11/18

Primary

Rising 8s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Dropping 10s N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Choppy

Monday
11/19

Primary

Holding 8s E
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Holding 10s N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
bumpy

Tuesday
11/20

Primary

Holding 8s E
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy

Wednesday
11/21

Primary

Holding 8s E
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Thursday
11/22

Primary

Rising 8s E
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

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Current Swells:

Sunday 11/18
Primary: Dropping 12s NNW surf @3-5 
Secondary: Rising 8s ENE surf @1-2+ 
Third: Holding 14s SSW surf @1 occ 2 
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Marine Warnings:

Sunday   11/18
Small Craft Adv due to fresh trades
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Sailing Report:

Sunday   11/18
Good with light NE trades filling to 10-25mph
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Diving Report:

Sunday   11/18
Improving but still Isolated remnant Brown water all shores. Poor for North shores and fair for select deeper West shores + good for select south shore zones; fair for select 'inside reefs' and poor for most 'outside reefs' along Windward shores.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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