6am OBS, Tuesday, July 15th
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with a few early windward and mauka showers. Light to moderate ENE trades filling to moderate to near fresh paces towards lunch with afternoon sea breezes for some leeward coasts. Small Craft Advisory for Molokai-Big Island channel waters and Big Island surrounding waters.
Big Picture updated 7/13. Tiny NW. Fun South overlapping small South. Small ENE trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

North Shore:
Up & Dropping 11 sec NW + Rising later trade wind swell wrap. Clean and mostly smooth conditions thanks to the light offshore wind early. Sunset 0-1.5'; Rocky Pt 0-1'; Pipe 0-1/2'; Chuns 0-1'; Laniakea 0-1'; Ali'i Beach Park flat. Scattered clouds.
West:
Up & Rising 16 sec South + Dropping 12 sec South. Surf's clean early but late morning sea breezes will mush things out. Makaha is 1-occ 2' with focal reefs up to 2.5' on the very inconsistent surf. Watch for 3' sets at those reefs this afternoon. Mostly clear skies.
Town:
Up & Rising 16 sec South + Dropping 12 sec South. Clean conditions due to light to breezy offshore trades but surf's inconsistent with long waits in between sets. Waikiki reefs are 1-2' very occ. +'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2' very occ. 3'. Watch for slightly overhead sets this afternoon. Mostly clear skies.
Diamond Head:
Up & Rising 16 sec South + Dropping 12 sec South + Rising later trade wind swell wrap. A little textured and bumpy from the sideshore breeze. Surf's 2-3' occ. + at takeoff. Few clouds.
Sandy's:
Up & Rising 16 sec South + Dropping 12 sec South + Rising later ENE trade wind swell wrap. Bumpy and choppy over the exposed reefs due to breezy sideshore trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-3'. Shorebreak is 1-2' occ. 3' and focused from Cobbles to Middle Peaks, smaller by Gas Chambers. Scattered clouds.
East Makapu'u:
Rising later 7 sec ENE trade wind swell. Choppy and bumpy due to a moderate onshore wind. Surf's 1-2' and breaking along the shore across the bay. Partly cloudy skies.Winds
10-20+mph ENE Trade
10-25mph ENE Trade
10-25mph ENE Trade
10-25mph ENE Trade
10-20+mph East Trade
North
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair-Good side-offshore
Primary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
Up & holding 7s NEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary

Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin
West
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Up & dropping 11s NWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary

Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary

Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary

Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair side-offshores
South
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
Isolated 3'+ later
Primary

Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
Primary

Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Primary

Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary

Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair
Primary
Up & Rising 16s SWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary

Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair side-offshores
3' later
east
Primary

Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Up & holding 7s ENEHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary

Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary

Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy
Primary
Up & holding 8s NEHaw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Lumpy-Bumpy

Current Swells:
Tuesday 07/15Primary: Up & Rising 16s S surf @1-2 occ 3
Secondary: Rising Later 7s ENE surf @1-2
Third: Up & dropping 11s NW surf @0-1.5

Marine Warnings:
Tuesday 07/15Small Craft Advisory for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, and Big Island leeward & SE waters.

Sailing Report:
Tuesday 07/15Good due to moderate to fresh ENE trades at 10-25mph.

Diving Report:
Tuesday 07/15North Shore: Fair to Good (best bet: deeper dives) due to tiny surf under moderate side-offshore trades and partly cloudy skies. South: Poor overall (deep dives best; select protected areas still ok) due to average surf and moderate ENE trades under partly cloudy skies. West: Fair due to small surf and light to moderate trades. East: Fair for most zones with small surf and moderate trades...protected prime zones best bet.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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