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Surf n Sea

630am OBs for Friday June 23rd Powered by UpperCervicalHawaii.com

Mostly clear Leeward, light to moderate NE tilted Trades. No marine advsry but possible minor Coastal flooding/surging still possible on KING tides this afternoon with ~3' High Tide at 4pm

BIG PICTURE UPDATED FRIDAY 9am. South reinforcement, average trade swells. Nothing in da country. Call 596-SURF (7am, Noon, 3 updates & 5p recap/trend)

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North Shore:

Down & droppin' N. Sunset Pt. 0-1/2', Rocky Pt. 0-1/2', Pipe 0-0', Chuns 0-1/2', Laniakea same, Ali'i 0-0'; Clean lite sideoffshores with NE trades filling 10-20 & scattered-broken clouds.
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West:

Rising on the King tides later from the 15 sec South. Makaha is 0-2 occ plus and higher sets at focal spots out west; lite trades under sunny skies all day.
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Town:

Up on 15 sec South. Rising more after -.5 low tide 9 am. KING TIDES: 2.6+' at 4pm (Fri-Sat peak). Surf is 2-3 occ +' per 30-50min and likely 5' on the incoming tide toward Noon. Really clean with light- offshore NE trades filling to moderate. Fair-good shape when sets come. Good overall from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Rock Piles to Kaisers, Threes-Pops-Queens; clear skies.
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Diamond Head:

Up on 15 sec South. Rising more after -.5 low tide 9 am. Surf is still solid 2-3' and some 4' at Browns/40 min; moderate NE side-offshore and semi bumpy. KING TIDE may kinda kill surf this afternoon like last couple day. Fairly clear.
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Sandy's:

Up on 15 sec South. Rising more after -.5 low tide 9 am + trade swells. Surf is still powerful 2-3' (maybe a rogue 4'); some slammers and good with lite-moderate NE trades side-offshore. From Full Pt-!/2 Pt; P. Littles - Gas Chambers, Generals off-on. Fairly clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding the tiny 8 sec trade swell. Surf is 1-2' occ. 3' with lite-moderate onshore NE trade chop. Alittle bit of white cap. Water's super clear. Keiki's is slightly smaller 1-2+' under scattered broken clouds.
Pacific Diamond

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 90°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 90°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph ENE

Range:
10-20mph ENE Trades moderate
No marine adv.
Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade
Seabreezes midday
Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade
Seabreezes midday
Range:
5-15mph ENE Trade
Seabreezes midday
Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

North

Friday
06/23
N-NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding
2' 9 sec; clean, cloudy on/off
Saturday
06/24
N-NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Sunday
06/25
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Rising early Evening
3' 12sec
Monday
06/26
NE
Haw: 1-3 occ +
Face: 2-5 occ +
Holding
3' 11sec
Tuesday
06/27
NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping Slow
3.5' 10 sec
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West

Friday
06/23
COMBO
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Rising
3.5' 15 sec; clean offshore, clear
Saturday
06/24
S
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Sunday
06/25
S
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Dropping

Monday
06/26
S
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Dropping

Tuesday
06/27
SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising Slow
1.5' 16sec
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South

Friday
06/23
S
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Rising
3.5' 15 sec; 5' sets later; clean offshore, partly clear
Saturday
06/24
S
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
Dropping Slow
3.5' 14 sec
Sunday
06/25
COMBO
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Dropping

Monday
06/26
S
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping

Tuesday
06/27
SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising Slow
1.5' 16 sec
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east

Friday
06/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising
4' 8 sec; moderate chop, fairly cloudy
Saturday
06/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Sunday
06/25
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Monday
06/26
NE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising
Advsrys
Tuesday
06/27
NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
Advsrys
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Current Swells:

Friday   06/23
Primary: Rising  S  2-3' occ 4' surf at 15 sec (5' peak later)
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  1-2-3' surf at 8 sec
Third: Dropping  N-NW  1/2' surf at 9 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   06/23
Npne but possible coastal flooding/surging watch due to KING tides 3pm afternoon-8pm
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Sailing Report:

Friday   06/23
Good for all shores with 10-20 mph ENE Trades
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Diving Report:

Friday   06/23
South Swell + KING TIDES; Good for North, good for deep West, poor to fair for deep South, good for East 'inside' and outside reef dives

Oahu

SUNSET
Friday   06/23
N-NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades moderate
semi-clean

ROCKY POINT
Friday   06/23
N-NW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Trades moderate
fairly clean

Pipeline
Friday   06/23
N-NW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
semi-clean

HALEIWA
Friday   06/23
N-NW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades light
clean

MAKAHA
Friday   06/23
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Trades light
smooth
4' at focal west reefs
ALA MOANA
Friday   06/23
S
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Trades moderate
clean
occ 5' peak on higher tide
Waikiki
Friday   06/23
S
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Trades moderate
clean
occ 5' peak on higher tide (surrounding reefs)
Diamond Head
Friday   06/23
S
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Trades moderate
slightly bumpy
occ 5' peak on higher tide (surrounding reefs)
Sandy Beach
Friday   06/23
COMBO
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good
plus' later
Makapuu
Friday   06/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Maui

Hookipa
Friday   06/23
N-NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate
bumpy

Honolua
Friday   06/23
N
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
clean

Kihei
Friday   06/23
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades light-moderate
good

Hana
Friday   06/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Lahaina
Friday   06/23
S
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades light-moderate
smooth
4' later

Kauai

Hanalei
Friday   06/23
N
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Trades moderate
smooth

Majors
Friday   06/23
S
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Trades moderate
fair to good

Poipu
Friday   06/23
S
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Trades moderate-fresh
good
5' later on higher tides
Kapaa
Friday   06/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Friday   06/23
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades moderate
choppy

Kohala
Friday   06/23
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades moderate
good

Kona
Friday   06/23
S-SW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate
good
isolated 4' sets on higher tide
Hilo
Friday   06/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate
bumpy

Kau
Friday   06/23
COMBO
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Trades moderate
fair to good

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE Update for Friday June 23rd
TIDES: Our annual ‘KING Tides’ are peaking Friday-Saturday with -.4-6 Low tides early AM pushing to 2.5-3’ at 4pm Friday and 5pm Saturday. Watch for more run up/run off on the reinforcing South. Heights may be higher than the charts. These higher highs and lower lows occur near Hawaii Solstices (June 21 is the Summer Solstice).
NPAC:
The Energizer Jet finally gives up the ghost this past week for about the first time all year. There was a trough/dip Monday our side of the dateline which allowed for the soft NW and lighter trades toward midweek. Our large upper air current flowing west to east up over 30,000’ has been above average for this time of year thus those pulses of NW to NNE. By Thursday/Friday the Jet is barely detectable to our North…. blue above Hawaii latitude across a huge chunk of the central pacific basin. But things are changing as they always do. This weekend the Jet shows up off Japan enough to assist in weak surface low creation. There’s more consolidation and length toward the end of this 7-day outlook from date at top. See swell #2 below.

#1 Recent: Last Wednesday/Thursday a broad gale low ~1600 miles NW tries to organized near the dateline. Since the track was SE toward us we got a super fun 2-3+’ NW-NNW surf event which filled to 3’ late Sunday at 14 sec. She peaked just over 2-3’ today with good form and conditions with light E trades. It’ll fade Tuesday onward with shorter periods of 10 sec and veer NNW before becoming trace swell Friday.

#2 Next: Models backed down and disintegrate the weak east tracking low this week Wednesday 6/21st. It was going to send some WNW short period ‘spring time-like’ surf of 2 Monday the 26th but No more.

#3 Last: A bit of a downgrade. A strong high centered in the gulf has a fetch off its SE flank near Oregon spinning off some 3’ maybe 4’ NE surf at focals with 12 sec around by dawn Monday the 26th …it’ll fade from there for the rest of the month. ‘Hats Off’ to June.

SPAC
Cranking with activity the past couple weeks down under. But now the Jets not looking great. For now, the two weak branches and both are zonal but we do get some significant tho’ complex troughs or dips none of which are in the typical zones but they’ll still help lead to spinning air at the surface and some fetch pointing in our general direction over the 7 day or thru this Monday 26th.
#1-#2 Recent: Fun 2-4’ occ 5’ this week and a new 15 sec South is here on Friday up to 4’ tho’ not at all consistent or sizable due to in part the KING TIDES.
Sources of overlapping episodes: A powerful complex area of Low pressure & fetch set up from a storm that slammed NZL ~Tuesday June 13th and struggled to move out off the land. Still, Wednesday-Friday she tracked NNE right up the coast toward Hawaii. Some captured fetch tried to make up for the loss of sea development from NZL’s proximity which narrowed the fetch. This is the likely cause of Tuesday’s peak but we still have Wednesday at easy 4’ plus.
Seas reached 30-40’ so if this storm were to have been say 300-600 miles further east we may have seen some 8’ SSW. We claimed 6’ at peak surf spots on the higher tide Tuesday afternoon (around 1pm) but it didn’t happen expect for very select spots. Winds Tuesday were anomalies from the NNW in the afternoon/a strange Seabreeze mix from the cold front 500 miles NW of Kauai compromising the trades. Wednesday saw solid Trades again
The Enforcer Thursday-Saturday. A nice sized South overlaps the dying SSW on Thursday with a straight South reaching 4’ late Thursday and into Friday! With some 5’ sets likely. Swell is 3’ with 15 sec. average. Source: A strong Low last Thursday deepened 600-800 miles off NZL with a much broader fetch tho’ weaker than the prior system. Still, since it was unobstructed we’ll see some 4’ overhead sets for top ‘refractors’. Issues: the tides and consistency.

We may also see some insignificant SSE swell mixing in but over run by the two swells above this week.

# LAST:
After this week we go into a longer than seasonal quite period with only tiny long period SW Taz sources keeping it rideable. July ‘may’ kick off a bit better with some 3’ SW to SSW surf. But we see no hint of real overhead surf.

TRADE WIND SWELL
Trades swells of 3’ along Windward shores hung round all week from upstream and local Trades. Our typical 7-8sec trade swell will be 2’ or 2.5’ or waist to chest next week but the 12 sec NE will crank it up to 4’ Monday-Tuesday. Read NPAC event #3 above.

TROPICS: nothing for Hawaii.







NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.

All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy
Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles)
Angle: 307 deg

Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------

Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355

(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------

10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9

12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9

14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5

16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4

18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6

20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9

22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4

24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9



Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria

Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Foot faces (8' Local) 25' Foot faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Foot (7' local) 20 Foot (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Foot (4'+ local) 12 Foot (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Foot (4'+ local) 15 Foot (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.

Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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