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Cholos KARAOKE

630am OBS, Friday, July 11th

Mostly cloudy with blue parts. Moderate to fresh ENE trades. Small Craft Advisory for Maui to Big Island.

Solid average ENE trade wind swell. Holding SSW....with a little wrap to country. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Up a notch over ystrdy on small trade wrap. Slightly bumpy thanks to breezy side-offshores ENE trades. Sunset 0-1.5'; Rocky Pt 0-1.5'; Pipe 0-1/2'; Chuns 0-1'; Laniakea 1-2'; Ali'i Beach Park mostly flat; mostly cloudy.
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West:

Holding 13 sec SSW. Surf's clean moderate to fresh offshores all day. Makaha is 0-2' behind the reef (with solid 2.5' at west side focal reefs). Fairly cloudy skies.
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Town:

Up and holding inconsistent 13 sec SSW and smaller SSE. Mostly clean side-offshore moderate to breezy ENE trades filling. Waikiki reefs are 1-2.5' occ 2.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2.5' under cloudy skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Holding inconsistent 13 sec SSW and smaller SSE + trade wrap. Shredded from the moderate to fresh side shores. Surf's 1-2 occ 3'. Mostly cloudy.
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Sandy's:

Holding inconsistent SSW and smaller SSE + trade wrap. Messy over the exposed reefs due to brisk side shore ENE trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-3'. Shore break is 2-3' looking best from Middle Peaks under broken clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 8 sec ENE trade wind swell. Choppy fresh onshore trades. Surf's 2-3' breaking on the outside left and middle. Keikis is smaller at 1-2.5' under mostly clouds.
HSFF 2025 728X90

Winds

Friday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

Saturday
Range:
10-20mph ENE to E

Sunday
Range:
10-20mph ENE to E

Monday
Range:
10-20mph ENE Trade

Tuesday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

North

Friday
07/11

Primary

Up & holding 8s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  
Haw: 0
Face: 0
slightly bumpy
Focal reefs only
Saturday
07/12

Primary

Dropping 7s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore

Sunday
07/13

Primary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

None  
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Monday
07/14

Primary

Rising 11s NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore

Tuesday
07/15

Primary

Dropping 10s NNW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Rising 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore

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West

Friday
07/11

Primary

Up & holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0

Secondary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
slightly bumpy
Saturday
07/12

Primary

Dropping 11s SSE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1

Secondary

Dropping 7s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
Sunday
07/13

Primary

Holding 10s SSE
Haw: 0
Face: 0

Secondary

Holding 7s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
Monday
07/14

Primary

Up & Rising 18s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Rising 11s NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair-Good side-offshore
Tuesday
07/15

Primary

Up & holding 15s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Dropping 10s NNW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair-Good side-offshore
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South

Friday
07/11

Primary

Dropping 12s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Up & holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair-Good side-offshore

Saturday
07/12

Primary

Dropping 11s SSE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Holding 15s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair-Good side-offshore

Sunday
07/13

Primary

Holding 10s SSE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

Dropping 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair-Good side-offshore
Rising later 19s S@1-1.5'
Monday
07/14

Primary

Up & Rising 18s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore
2.5' later
Tuesday
07/15

Primary

Up & holding 15s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair-Good side-offshore

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east

Friday
07/11

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

Saturday
07/12

Primary

Dropping 7s ENE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Sunday
07/13

Primary

Holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Monday
07/14

Primary

Holding 7s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Tuesday
07/15

Primary

Rising 7s ENE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

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Current Swells:

Friday 07/11
Primary: Holding 8s ENE surf @2-3 
Secondary: Dropping 12s S surf @1-2 occ + 
Third: Up & holding 8s NE surf @1-2 
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   07/11
Trend: Small Craft advisory for Maui-Big Island.
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Sailing Report:

Friday   07/11
Good due to moderate to fresh ENE trades at 10-25mph.
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Diving Report:

Friday   07/11
North Shore: Fair to Good (best bet: deeper dives) due to tiny wind swell wrapping under fresh side-offshore trades and fairly cloudy skies. South: Fair overall (deep dives best; select protected areas still ok) due to small SW-SSW and moderate to fresh ENE trades under fairly cloudy skies. West: Good due to small surf and moderate trades and broken clouds in the AM. East: Poor-fair for most zones with solid moderate surf and fresh trades...protected prime zones best bet..

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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