Surf n Sea 728×90 generic 2.1.20

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HANKS TAX 2019 + 2/3/20

645am OBS Tuesday Feb 25th

Pattern change in play. Trades filling to fresh paces 15-25mph. High Surf Adv goes up at noon in advance of near Warning level NW. Small Craft Adv posted due to Trades.

SNN BIG PICTURE: Updated Tuesday 2/25. New BIG NNW build all day and nite. Small Trade and tiny SSW swells. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon & 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Up and Rising BIG 17sec NNW building into evening. Sunset to Rocky Pt are fair side off but squally at 4-6' and building to 10' but dark. Pipe 4-6' but poor-fair angle/shape. Chuns 3-5'; Laniakea 3-5' maybe higher. Haleiwa 3-4' under mostly cloudy skies.
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West:

Up and Rising BIG 17sec NNW building into evening. Makaha is 2-3' occ 4' with clean offshores under clear skies.
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Town:

Holding small background 11sec SSW. Kewalos, Courts to Bowls & Kaisers have good glass at 0-1.5' mostly occ 2'. Queens is clean and offshore at 0-1.5' occ 2' under partly clear skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Holding SSW. Diamond Head is 1-2' and bumpy again and partly clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Holding 8sec Trade and trace SSW. Sandy's 1-2' maybe occ. 2.5' set here and there with trade bumpy texture from Full Pt thru Half Pt. to Chambers.
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East Makapu'u:

Rising slowly on new 8sec ENE trade swell. Makapu'u is choppy again 1-2.5' breaking mostly inside left-middle but more coming from outside under cloudy skies.
BISHOP MUSEUM SURF EXHIBIT

Winds

Tuesday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade
Filling in
Wednesday
Range:
15-30mph ENE Trade

Thursday
Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Friday
Range:
15-30mph NE Trade

Saturday
Range:
15-30mph ENE Trade

North

Tuesday
02/25

Primary

Rising 18s NNW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
10' near sunset
Wednesday
02/26

Primary

Dropping 15s NW
Haw: 10-15+
Face: 15-25+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Thursday
02/27

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14

Secondary

Rising 17s NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Fair to good
5-7'
Friday
02/28

Primary

Holding 15s NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
windy

Saturday
02/29

Primary

Dropping 14s NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
windy

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West

Tuesday
02/25

Primary

Rising 18s NNW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Dropping 11s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair
Wednesday
02/26

Primary

Dropping 15s NW
Haw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+

Secondary

Rising Slow 15s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Fair
Thursday
02/27

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+

Secondary

Holding 14s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Friday
02/28

Primary

Holding 15s NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18

Secondary

Dropping 11s S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
windy
Saturday
02/29

Primary

Dropping 14s NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14

Secondary

Rising 16s SSE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
windy
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South

Tuesday
02/25

Primary

Dropping 11s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Wednesday
02/26

Primary

Rising Slow 15s S
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Thursday
02/27

Primary

Holding 14s S
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Friday
02/28

Primary

Dropping 11s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Gales
Saturday
02/29

Primary

Rising 16s SSE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Gales
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east

Tuesday
02/25

Primary

Rising 9s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
FUN

Wednesday
02/26

Primary

Holding 9s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

Thursday
02/27

Primary

Holding 9s ENE
Haw: 1-3 occ +
Face: 2-5 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Friday
02/28

Primary

Rising 9s ENE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Saturday
02/29

Primary

Rising 9s ENE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

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Current Swells:

Tuesday 02/25
Primary: Rising 18s NNW surf @3-5+ 
Secondary: Rising 9s ENE surf @1-3 
Third: Dropping 11s S surf @0-1.5 
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   02/25
High Surf Adv goes up at Noon in advance of BIG NW rising esp second half of the day and Small Craft due to fresh Trades
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   02/25
Good with increasing to Fresh ENE trades
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   02/25
Caution: Fair-good for deep North shore zones early but NW rising. Good for deeper West shores top zones until new NW builds esp afternoon. Good for South zones. East is fair for inside reefs and poor- fair for outside reefs.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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