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SURF N SEA ONLINE 728  1.31.24 10pm

6am OBS, Tuesday, May 21st

Scattered clouds with isolated windward showers. Light to moderate ESE flow filling to moderate paces towards lunch with leeward sea breezes. Small Craft Advisory for Molokai-Big Island waters.

Big Picture updated 5/19. Above average South. Trace NNW & NE. Average East trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Dropping slow 10 sec NNW + Rising trade swell wrap. Clean, smooth conditions due light offshore winds but not much surf. Sunset 0-1'; Rocky Pt 0-1/2'; Pipe 0-1'; Chuns/Jockos 0-1/2'; Laniakea 0-1/2'; Ali'i Beach Park flat. Partly cloudy skies.
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West:

Dropping 14 sec South. Surf's smooth and glassy at times under light offshores. Watch for sea breezes to mush things up towards mid-morning. Makaha is 1-2' occ. +'. Focal reefs up to 3'. Scattered clouds.
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Town:

Dropping 14 sec South. Surf's clean due to light offshore winds. Waikiki reefs are 1-2' occ. 3'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 2-3' occ. 4'. Partly cloudy skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Dropping 14 sec South. Textured, slightly chopped up due to increasing sideshore wind. Surf's 3-4' at takeoff. Scattered clouds.
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Sandy's:

Dropping 14 sec South + Up & Rising trade wind swell wrap. Surf's got a bit more texture and lumps due to increasing sideshore trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 2-4'. Shorebreak is 2-3' occ. 4' and cleaner. Partly cloudy skies.
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East Makapu'u:

Up & Rising 8 sec East trade wind swell + Dropping 9 sec NE. Bumpy, textured, typical conditions due to moderate onshore flow. Surf's 1-3' and breaking on the outside left near the rocks. Keikis is smaller at 1-2'. Partly cloudy skies.
Cholos Salsa Sunday May 26 2024

Winds

Tuesday
Range:
10-20mph ESE

Wednesday
Range:
10-20+mph ESE

Thursday
Range:
10-20+mph East Trade

Friday
Range:
10-20+mph East Trade

Saturday
Range:
10-20mph East Trade

North

Tuesday
05/21

Primary

Dropping 10s NNW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5

Secondary

Up & Rising 8s NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Wednesday
05/22

Primary

Up & holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Thursday
05/23

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Friday
05/24

Primary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Rising Late Evening 13s NNW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
divin , paddlin, fishin, sailin

Saturday
05/25

Primary

Up & holding 11s NNW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

Dropping 8s NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair

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West

Tuesday
05/21

Primary

Dropping 14s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Dropping 10s NNW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Fair side-offshores
Wednesday
05/22

Primary

Dropping 13s S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Up & holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair side-offshores
Thursday
05/23

Primary

Up & holding 18s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Friday
05/24

Primary

Up & holding 18s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Holding 8s NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Saturday
05/25

Primary

Holding 16s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2

Secondary

Up & holding 11s NNW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
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South

Tuesday
05/21

Primary

Dropping 14s S
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair side-offshores

Wednesday
05/22

Primary

Dropping 13s S
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

Rising Later 18s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair side-offshores

Thursday
05/23

Primary

Up & holding 18s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Rising Later 19s SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair

Friday
05/24

Primary

Up & holding 18s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Rising 15s SSE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair

Saturday
05/25

Primary

Holding 16s SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Up & holding 15s SSE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair

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east

Tuesday
05/21

Primary

Up & Rising 8s E
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

Dropping 9s NE
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
bumpy

Wednesday
05/22

Primary

Up & holding 8s E
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

Thursday
05/23

Primary

Holding 8s E
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Friday
05/24

Primary

Holding 8s E
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Saturday
05/25

Primary

Holding 8s ENE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
bumpy

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Current Swells:

Tuesday 05/21
Primary: Dropping 14s S surf @2-3 occ 4 
Secondary: Up & Rising 8s E surf @1-3 
Third: Dropping 10s NNW surf @0-1 
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   05/21
Small Craft Advisory for Pailolo & Alenuihaha Channels, Maui County windward waters, and all waters surrounding the Big Island.
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   05/21
Fair due to moderate ESE winds.
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   05/21
Overall brown water conditions improving. North shores: Fair to good due to with tiny surf and offshore winds; West shores: Fair due to small to medium South swell. South shores: Poor overall with moderate surf and moderate side-offshore winds. East shores: Poor due to average size surf and moderate onshore winds.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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