PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Monday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, rising to 3 to 5 feet Monday. Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday.

Outlook

Outlook through Sunday July 02: Surf along east facing shores will become rough through the upcoming week due to a combination of a moderate northeast swell and strong trade winds returning. Surf along east facing shores will near advisory levels through the early portion of the week. Reinforcing long-period south swells will continue to generate small to moderate surf along south facing shores through much of the upcoming week, especially Wednesday through the second half of the week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
06/23
5E824SAME11-16ESAME
3SE1557SAME
3S1668SAME
SAT
06/24
2N1134UPLOW9-13EDOWN
4E823DOWNLOW
3SE1446DOWNLOW
3S1446DOWNLOW
SUN
06/25
2N924SAMELOW9-13ESAME
4E712DOWNLOW
2NE1234UPLOW
2SSE1234DOWNLOW
MON
06/26
3NE1146UPLOW13-19EUP
5E613UPLOW
2SSE1234SAMELOW
1SSW1824UPLOW
TUE
06/27
3NE1045DOWNLOW13-19ESAME
5E724UPLOW
2SSE1234SAMELOW
1SSW1624SAMELOW
WED
06/28
3NE935DOWNLOW13-19ESAME
6E734UPLOW
3SSE1446UPLOW
11722UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Mix of surf from around the compass. Detailed: Mid Friday on has typical summer surf of near nil. A small increase is predicted for Saturday. A compact marginal gale raced NE from near 40°N 160°W to the gulf of Alaska 6/21-23. The fetch over the 350-020 degree band shifted northward, limiting surf potential. A tiny to small episode is due to fill in locally Friday night, peak late Saturday, and drop on Sunday. Mid Friday on has breakers below the trade windswell average. Heights should remain low on Saturday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for notes on the local winds and weather. A heat low over and off the coast of California and a high pressure well west of oregon starting 6/22 has aimed gales beyond 1600 nm away at targets SE of Hawaii and fresh to strong breezes about 1000 nm out more directly. The Wave Watch III output has downgraded the expected swell size relative to model output a few days ago. The strong breezes beyond 1000 nm away are predicted to hold into 6/25. Short-period swell from 40-60 degrees is predicted to build on Sunday, peak on Monday above the trade windswell average, then slowly drop into Wednesday. Moderate to fresh trades over and east of Hawaii 6/26-29 should trend breakers from windswell up from 70-90 degrees during this time. Mid Friday on has breakers above the summer average from within 130-190 degrees. Heights are expected to decline on Saturday from the same direction. A low pressure area SW of Easter Island 6/14-17 moved slowly SE. It is sending swell into the Hawaiian vicinity from 130-140 degrees 6/23. This event is likely peaking 6/23 and should slowly decline to near the summer average by Saturday afternoon and below average by Sunday. Another low pressure 6/15-17 near 50s 160°W, more due south of Hawaii, had gales and seas to 25 feet over a wide fetch. Surf from this source increased locally Thursday night and is peaking 6/23 from 170-190. This event should slowly trend down to below average levels by Sunday from 170-190 degrees. Weak low pressure 6/18-21 SSE of French Polynesia could keep summer background short-period surf locally 6/26-27 from 160-180 degrees. Fast-moving, storm-force systems along 65°S from south of Tasmania to SE of New Zealand 6/18-22 should bring a pair of low, long- period events within 180-220 degrees at levels below the summer average. The first one is due 6/26 and the second on 6/28. A compact gale low intensified near 32°S 145°W 6/22-23 with the head of the narrow fetch about 2700 nm away 6/23. It is expected to stay about the same for another 24 hours. It should bring an event near the summer average starting 6/28 from 165-180 degrees. Into the long range, this SSE event should peak 6/29 and slowly drop 6/30. Models show strong to marginal gales east of a large high pressure cell centered on 160°W in the mid latitudes and large areas of weak low pressure SSE of French Polynesia 6/24-27. This should keep shorter-period swell near the summer average locally 7/1-4 from 150-175 degrees. Breakers from windswell is expected to climb toward the summer average from 70-90 degrees 6/30-7/1. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, June 26. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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