PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 5 to 7 feet through Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Friday. Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 ft through Friday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Friday.

Outlook

Outlook through Thursday March 30: the current west northwest swell will continue to subside through the week. Small and choppy surf will continue along east facing shores through the rest of the week due to moderate trade winds. A large west northwest swell is forecast to arrive Saturday, peak Saturday night into Sunday, then slowly ease early next week. Surf from this swell will be well above the high surf advisory level and may require a high surf warning. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
03/22
5WNW15810SAME11-16ESAME
5E612SAME
THU
03/23
4WNW1368DOWNMED11-16ESAME
5E724UPLOW
FRI
03/24
4WNW1268DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
3NNW1446SAMELOW
5E724SAMELOW
SAT
03/25
3WNW1146DOWNLOW13-19EUP
6WNW191216UPLOW
3N1046DOWNLOW
6E724UPLOW
SUN
03/26
10NW172028SAMELOW17-21ESAME
7E735UPLOW
MON
03/27
8NW161620DOWNLOW17-21EDOWN
7E735SAMELOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Active spring pattern for . Detailed: Mid Wednesday on has breakers near the March average from 300-320 degrees. A decrease is expected on Thursday. Winter-caliber low pressure this week into next week in the western to central north Pacific are predicted to keep surf in Hawaii above average for peak days from WNW to NW. A long-lived low pressure system 3/15-19 in the far NW Pacific has kept steady surf in Hawaii 3/19-22. Gales 3/17-18 slowly weakened to marginal gales 3/18-19 with wide, long fetch beyond 2000 nm out. There was a short-lived minimum locally below average 3/21 though longer wave periods of 15-17 seconds grew the surf in the afternoon. The pacioos/cdip Waimea buoy off Oahu shows steady swell energy in the 13-16 second band 3/22. Nw Hawaii NOAA buoys 3/22 show a downward trend in the 14-16 second wave period band by the morning. This event is predicted to slowly decline locally from 300-320 degrees to levels below average by Thursday, and trend down into Saturday. A fast-moving, compact gale formed east of the dateline near 40°N on 3/21. Ascat satellite showed gales aimed at Hawaii over the 340-360 degree band Tuesday night near 40°N, 160°W. Wave watch iii does not bring this event beyond 1 feet deep water swell. Error bars are large since the highest seas were aimed to the NE of Hawaii. It could add surf from 340-360 degrees as early as Thursday evening. It should be short-lived, peaking on Friday and dropping Saturday. Further west, another hurricane-force system formed east of Tokyo 3/21. It has tracked east along 35°N to 160°E by 3/22. Models show the system slowing down in track, with the center of the low becoming stationary on the dateline near 40°N by mid Thursday, then slowly weakening as it drifts NNW into Saturday. The early stages 3/21-22 have energy concentrated in the 280-305 degree band. Ascat satellite Tuesday night showed a large area of winds within severe gales to hurricane-force. Long-period forerunners from this direction are due Saturday morning with a steady rise in surf to above average levels in the afternoon. This more WNW component of the swell should be long- lived, peaking Saturday night into early Sunday and holding into Monday as it drops. This direction also received shadowing by Kauai on Oahu, making for larger gradients of surf size along a given coastline, depending on degree of shadowing. For 3/23-3/25, the winds are expected to favor severe gales over a long, wide fetch of 305-320 degrees, with the head of the fetch to within 1500 nm away by 3/24. This area represent the potential for the highest swell locally due to proximity, which should fill in late Saturday afternoon, peak on Sunday from 305-320 degrees at levels marginally extra-large, or high enough for breakers on outer reefs, then remain above average on Monday. Mid Wednesday on has breakers below the trade windswell average. Similar low breakers are predicted for Thursday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for an explanation of the trends in local trades. The upstream fetch of moderate trades has been short and narrow, keeping small breakers. A gradual increase is expected into the weekend as wind speeds increase over and east of Hawaii. This should bring breakers to near the average by Sunday from 70-90 degrees. Mid Wednesday on has near nil breakers. More of the same is likely for Thursday. The southern hemisphere is slowly showing signs of a seasonal transition in the mid latitudes. Wave watch iii places a series of long-period swell of low magnitude, near 1 feet deep water swell, south of Oahu Friday to Monday. Low odds for surf approaching the summer background levels locally during this period. Westerly exposures have potential for surf mid Saturday to Monday. Into the long range, low pressure areas SE of New Zealand 3/22-26 should make for at least background level surf 3/28-30, with suggestions of a notch higher by 3/31-4/2 from 180-200 degrees. In the northern hemisphere, large areas of low pressure with gale or stronger winds are modelled to hover near the dateline 3/24-26. This should make for a long-lived spell of WNW to NW surf near or above the March average 3/28-30. Hints of a new low at the dateline 3/29, to bring in above average NW surf for the weekend of 4/1. Trade windswell is expected to be near or below average 3/28-30. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, March 24. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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