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JJ Dolans 728×90 GIF

10am OBs for Monday 10/16 from HIC pro 10/27-11/9

Strong gusty ENE trades (15-30+mph). Scattered-Broken clouds for Leeward and overcast Windward/ Mauka. Small craft advisory all waters, gales for channels east of Moloka'i, and Above High Surf Adv for South & East.

BIG PICTURE: Update Monday 8am. Big ENE and South swell, NE Wrap, small-moderate NNW. Call 596-SURF (7am, Noon, 3 updates & 5p recap/trend)

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North Shore:

Up and holding 14 sec NNW and holding 10 sec NNE. Surf is 2-4' for focusing reefs and brisk side off with fair shape & quality. Sunset Pt. 2-4', Rocky Pt 2-4' ; Pipe to OTW 1-3', Chuns 2-3+'; Jocko's 3.5' far left; Laniakea 2-4' crossed up; Ali'i Beach Park 2-3' under mostly cloudy skies.
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West:

Up & holding combo 14 sec NNW + 15 sec South to SSE. Makaha is 1-2-3' maybe occ higher & good but bumpy offshores with top sets breaking middle & behind the reef on South. Top magnets 5' on South; semi clear.
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Town:

Up & rising 15sec South. Surf is pumping above advisory threshold. Trades blasting brisk side off with fair-good shape on sets. Just too much wind from Kewalos to Courts, Ala Moana to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens mostly 3-4' occ isolated 5' and plus later esp 'round Publics eastward. Fairly cloudy skies.
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Diamond Head:

Up & rising powerful SSE. Surf is 3-6' and solid with thick, challenging drops and sections. Shredded side shores by gusty strong ENE trades 15-30; fairly cloudy skies.
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Sandy's:

DANGER. Up & holding new 15 sec SSE. Surf is 4-6' with 7' sets! Maybe some jacking to 8' (15' crest to trough) and heavy current taking you past Chambers. CAREFUL. Moderate-strong ENE bump/chop. Top sets wild, solid energy but not happening as much for Full Point to 1/2 Point; Pipe littles pumping barrels from breaking way outside from Generals way over past Middle Peaks to Gas Chambers; under broken clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

DANGER. Up & holding 10 sec ENE. Surf is 4-7' maybe some 8' way, way out there, choppy and disjointed so hard to judge. breaking across the Bay to Keiki's; Trades strong (15-30+mph) under broken clouds.
UPPER CERVICAL

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 89°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 89°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 89°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
33mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 90°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Range:
15-30mph ENE Trade

Range:
15-30mph ENE Trade

Range:
15-30mph ENE Trade

Range:
15-30mph ENE Trade

Range:
15-30mph ENE Trade

North

Monday
10/16
NW+NE
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Dropping
NNW 3' 14 sec
Tuesday
10/17
NW+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
NNW
Wednesday
10/18
N-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Thursday
10/19
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Friday
10/20
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
3' 15 sec
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West

Monday
10/16
COMBO
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Holding
South + 3' NNW
Tuesday
10/17
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
South + 2.5' NNW
Wednesday
10/18
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding
South + 2' NNW
Thursday
10/19
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Friday
10/20
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising

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South

Monday
10/16
S-SE
Haw: 3-5 occ 6
Face: 5-8 occ 10
Dropping Slow
4' 15 sec;
Tuesday
10/17
S-SE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
3.5' 14 sec
Wednesday
10/18
S-SE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
3' 13 sec
Thursday
10/19
S-SE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Friday
10/20
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding

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east

Monday
10/16
E-NE
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Holding
9' 10 sec; onshore chop, broken clouds
Tuesday
10/17
E-NE
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Dropping Slow

Wednesday
10/18
E-NE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Holding

Thursday
10/19
E-NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Friday
10/20
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

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Current Swells:

Monday   10/16
Primary: Holding  E-NE  4-7' surf at 10 sec
Secondary: Rising  S-SE  3-6' surf at 15 sec
Third: Rising  N-NW  2-4' surf later at 14 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   10/16
Gales for channels east of Moloka'i; Small craft adv for all waters; ABOVE high surf advisory South & East shores
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Sailing Report:

Monday   10/16
Good for experts moderate-strong-gale & gusty ENE trades
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Diving Report:

Monday   10/16
Poor diving up North & fair for only a few deeper West side's top spots; Poor for South shores. Poor for East shores.

Oahu

SUNSET
Monday   10/16
NW+NE
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Trades moderate-strong
fair

ROCKY POINT
Monday   10/16
NW+NE
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Pipeline
Monday   10/16
NW+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair

HALEIWA
Monday   10/16
NW+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

MAKAHA
Monday   10/16
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Trades moderate-strong
fair to good
5' select spots
ALA MOANA
Monday   10/16
S
Haw: 3-5 occ 6
Face: 5-8 occ 10
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Waikiki
Monday   10/16
S
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
ENE Trades strong
fair to good

Diamond Head
Monday   10/16
S-SE
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Trades strong
choppy

Sandy Beach
Monday   10/16
ENE+SSE
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Trades fresh-strong
bumpy

Makapuu
Monday   10/16
ENE+NE
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Monday   10/16
NW+NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Honolua
Monday   10/16
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good
3' NNW & 3' NE
Kihei
Monday   10/16
S
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades fresh-strong
good
Bigger down road Makena etc
Hana
Monday   10/16
ENE+NE
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Lahaina
Monday   10/16
S
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Kauai

Hanalei
Monday   10/16
NW+NE
Haw: 1-3 occ +
Face: 2-5 occ +
Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Majors
Monday   10/16
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades moderate-strong
fair to good
NNW+S
Poipu
Monday   10/16
S
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Kapaa
Monday   10/16
ENE+NE
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Monday   10/16
ENE+NE
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Kohala
Monday   10/16
COMBO
Haw: 0-3
Face: 0-5
Trades moderate-strong
windy

Kona
Monday   10/16
S
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Hilo
Monday   10/16
ENE+NE
Haw: 4-6 occ +
Face: 6-10 occ +
Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Kau
Monday   10/16
COMBO
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE: Friday 9/29/17
NPAC: The Jet is fairly low with up to 180kts but flowing ENE from Japan not steering storms closer to us.
There’s a big split just to our NW some dips/troughs setting up for some circulation at the surface a couple times this 7-day trend. But, extreme dips and splits can be too steep hindering gradual connections between the upper flow and surface.
From our NE to the west coast it’s a mostly zonal flow with only 140kts. More energy is needed in these upper level wind regions 30,000 ft up in the EPAC.
A large area of High pressure which has persisted for a majority of the East Pac where the Jet bumps up and over is finally giving way a little this coming week tho’ briefly.
By next week Monday the 2nd of Oct., the Jet has dissipated into summer like levels but thanks to some dipping we do get a gale spinner Oct 3rd (read below).
Luckily by Wednesday it’s reconsolidated from Japan with some 180kts and again a ENE tilt to our longitudes above the Aleutians.
There’s minor trough to our N and more ‘blue’ or high-pressure re-establishing in the EPAC.
A cut off low just to our NE by Friday, as of now, it may lead to some interesting winds, weather and some NNE sideband surf over the weekend of the 7th.
#1 Recently/currently:
We’ve had some fun NNW to NNE swell this week getting to just overhead at focal reefs. Friday it’s still 1-3’ top spots top sets but not as ‘put together’. It came from an east to ENE bound Low to our NNW starting last late Sunday as it ended in the Gulf. Fetches continued on it’s West flank into Wednesday. This is outta here by Sunday.
#2 Next: A much better NNW episode (1st one of Oct) is setting up for Monday2 Tuesday3 up to maybe 6’ or double overhead. The storm is 1200mi to our N-NNW by Saturday and it stalls (occludes: which is good as winds aren’t strong and this give winds more time). The Low weakens more and more Sunday-Monday as it’s fetch noses from 900 down to 300 miles.
Models have been so fickle on this oct 1st event but now it looks good to go. They started at 6’ then backed down 3’ then up to 5’ now back to 3’ surf maybe 4’ Sunday-Monday Oct 1st-2nd. Now, finally it’s likely to peak near double overhead for focal reefs with winds Variable.
#3 Last: Another compact low pops on the charts esp. by Monday Oct 2nd as it crosses the dateline intensifying with a nice ESE track. This is a partially captured fetch which means the fetch ‘follows’ the storm center/track, leading to increased surface wind support). It’s fading out by Wednesday to our North but not without sending down some more NNW veering N swell this Wednesday the 5th with up to 5’ surf at 12 sec. Trades are expected back by this time.
SPAC: The JETSTREAM fattens up on the first days of this 7-day model run. But the energy is still not optimally placed NE up the east coast of New Zealand. This reflects our transition into Fall and the Jet falls apart from Tuesday-Friday.
#1 Recent + Today: It’s been tiny but rideable from the generic SSE-SE ‘trade swell’ this week with averages of 2’ but with tons of waiting.
#2 Next: A 45-55kt Low built up to 30’ seas as it tracked zonally from under NZL early this work week. But this was pointing to the Americas. However, due to size and strength we may rely on some long period sideband surf from swell dispersion. So far however, WW3 predicts only 1.2’ deep water at 18-20sec initially around Wednesday the 3rd. Those long periods come from high winds and can sometimes refract/shoal swell 3-4 or even 5X’s the ‘swell or deep water’ height. If this pans out Wednesday then we could see one or two 3’ sets if lucky every hour for top spots.
#3 Next: This Big storm continues is east bound journey and by Wednesday the 27th more storm force pockets are seen. But again, their fetch is zonal to ENE and skewed toward South AMER and Baja and Cali.
Then by Thursday the fetch points & moves more NE and by Friday the damn thing is 1500 miles long but just East of the 150W longitude of French Polynesia. They’ll be pumping and so will all the aforementioned zones. Hawaii will beg for sideband swell of 3’ Sat/Sunday 7-8th. Periods will be 11 sec by this time. They’ll start at 16sec when the earlier stage of the storms winds were strong.
#4 Last: A powerful Low including a reinforcement Low on it’s heals gets up to 45’ seas projects for Oct 3rd SE of New Zealand. Again, the damn things move west to east and thus once more we must receive smaller sideband swell instead of 5’ SSW’s we’d have a NE track. At any rate, due to the sheer power WW3 does claim a full week of fun 3’ SSW surf Mon-Friday Oct 9th-13th. Better than July and August.
TRADE SWELL
Trades swell below average and will remain so at least into oct 5th. There’s a Low’s weak surface trough pushing our high east and weakening it and its ridge down near the Islands from the NW. Winds will be light enough for sea breezes thru Tuesday….so tiny clean wind swell. Good diving for Windward all weekend pending rain and cloud cover. Trade swell re-establishes from Wed or Thursday to near normal or up to 2 or 3’ with minor flux.


TROPICS: Nothing today nor for the weekend.

Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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