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Cholos 728 Take Out 728 off for Salsa 2.14-18.24

645am OBS, Monday, Mar. 18th

A beautiful morning with mostly clear skies. Light to moderate ENE trades all day. No marine warnings.

Big Picture updated 3/17. Solid NW. Small SSW & NE trade wind swells. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).

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North Shore:

Up & Dropping Slowly 16 sec NW. Mostly clean conditions with a bit of texture due to breezy side-offshore winds. Sunset 5-7'; Rocky Pt 4-6'; Pipe 3-5'; Chuns/Jockos 3-5'+; Laniakea 3-5'+; Ali'i Beach Park 3-5'. Partly cloudy skies.
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West:

Up & Dropping Slowly 16 sec NW + Up & Holding 18 sec SSW. Surf's clean due to light offshore winds. Makaha is 2-4' and focused towards the middle of the bowl. A few clouds.
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Town:

Up & Holding 18 sec SSW. Clean conditions due to light offshore winds. Waikiki reefs are 1-2' occ. +; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2' occ. near 3'. Mostly clear skies.
Photo courtesy of Eric Tessmer

Diamond Head:

Up & Holding 18 sec SSW. It's fairly clean due to light side-offshore winds. Surf's 1-2' occ. 3' at takeoff. Scattered clouds.
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Sandy's:

Up & Holding 18 sec SSW + Holding small NE wrap. Surf's fairly clean with side-offshore winds. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'. Shorebreak is also at 1-2' and spread across from Middles to Chambers. A few clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding 9 sec NE trade wind swell. A little bumpy under light to moderate trades. Surf's 1-2' and breaking along the shore and across the bay. Mostly clear skies.
HANKS TAX (19 + 2/20) 2.18.22-3.15.22

Winds

Tuesday
Range:
10-20mph NE to ENE

Wednesday
Range:
10-20+mph NE to ENE

Thursday
Range:
10-25mph NE to ENE

Friday
Range:
10-25mph NE Trade

Saturday
Range:
10-25mph ENE Trade

North

Tuesday
03/19

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9

Secondary

Rising 22s WNW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Fair to good
5' afternoon
Wednesday
03/20

Primary

Up & holding 16s WNW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
down grade
Thursday
03/21

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Friday
03/22

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

Rising 21s WNW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Fair
6' afternoon
Saturday
03/23

Primary

Up & dropping 16s WNW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

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West

Tuesday
03/19

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7

Secondary

Dropping Later 16s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Wednesday
03/20

Primary

Up & holding 16s WNW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

Up & holding 14s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Thursday
03/21

Primary

Dropping 13s NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+

Secondary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Friday
03/22

Primary

Dropping 12s NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+

Secondary

Up & holding 16s SSW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
Saturday
03/23

Primary

Up & dropping 16s WNW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12

Secondary

Holding 16s SSW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
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South

Tuesday
03/19

Primary

Dropping Later 16s SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Wednesday
03/20

Primary

Up & holding 14s SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good

Thursday
03/21

Primary

Dropping 13s SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3

Secondary

Rising 18s SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Typical

Friday
03/22

Primary

Up & holding 16s SSW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

Saturday
03/23

Primary

Holding 16s SSW
Haw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Fair

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east

Tuesday
03/19

Primary

Holding 6s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Typical

Wednesday
03/20

Primary

Up & holding 6s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Lumpy-Bumpy

Thursday
03/21

Primary

Rising Afternoon 6s NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Lumpy-Bumpy

Friday
03/22

Primary

Up & Rising 7s NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy

Saturday
03/23

Primary

Up & Rising 7s ENE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5

Secondary

None  NONE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Rough

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Current Swells:

Tuesday 03/19
Primary: Dropping 13s NW surf @3-5 
Secondary: Dropping Later 16s SSW surf @1-2 occ + 
Third: Holding 6s NE surf @1-2 
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   03/19
Trend: None
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   03/19
Trend: Good with NE trades filling 10-20mph.
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   03/19
Trend: North shores: Poor to fair due to moderate NW swell and moderate side-offshore wind. West shores: Fair for shallow zones due to small to moderate NW swell and offshore winds, good for deeper dives. South shores: Fair overall for prime zones due to some surf and offshore winds. East shores: Poor-fair due to small surf and onshore winds.

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

INACTIVE.
Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9

Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)

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