Wednesday, September 17, 2014 596-SURF , 596-WAVE , 922-BONG , 638-RUSH , 572-SURF(MAUI) , 241-SURF (KAUAI) , 324-RUSH (BIG ISLAND)
   
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000
FXHW60 PHFO 150141
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FORM IN
THE AFTERNOONS WITH OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES CLEARING SKIES. LIGHT
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS/SKY/WX/QPF GRIDS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE WESTERN END OF THE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BAND HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND HEATING...WE
ANTICIPATE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF
CLOUDS SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAND BREEZES AT
NIGHT TO CLEAR THE ISLANDS.

THE LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S TOMORROW
WILL MAKE IT FEEL STICKY AND UNCOMFORTABLE. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT TRADE
WINDS. HOWEVER...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE TRADES WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON LEEWARD SEA BREEZES THAT WILL WILL BRING
SPOTTY CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A RATHER DRY CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ISOL MVFR
CIGS OVER INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. LAND BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
AFTER SUNDOWN...LEADING TO CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. A DIFFUSE BAND OF MOISTURE ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE MAY PRODUCE ISOL MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SHRA AS IT MOVES OVER
NORTH FACING TERRAIN OF KAUAI...OAHU...AND MOLOKAI OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CURRENT LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY SMALL...SUMMERTIME BACKGROUND SURF EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

THE CURRENT SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A
COUPLE OF OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
ALL ISLANDS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...WROE




The Weather Prediction Center

College Park, MD

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion




Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 17 2014 - 00Z Wed Sep 24 2014

Models and ensembles reasonably agree in the overall weather
pattern for the Hawaiian islands for much of the upcoming week.
Water vapor imagery shows a nearly stationary trough/low over the
state overtop distrupted island trade flow, albeit with a
weakening front lingering near the Big Island that may focus short
term moisture and some showers. Expect light trades over the next
few days as very modest high pressure bridges to the north of the
state in the wake of the front and a supporting eastern Pacific
low. Trades become disrupted again late week into next week as
another front works to the north of the state, leading again into
a pattern with some sea/land breeze showers. 

Schichtel





Last Updated: 816 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2014




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