000
FXHW60 PHFO 252003
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RAINFALL WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES WITH SOME SHOWERS CARRYING OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS...
MAINLY AT NIGHT. TRADES WILL DECREASE A NOTCH AND SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS ALONG 31N NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TO A 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N142W. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD NEAR ITS
CURRENT POSITION AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WIND SPEED FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS IN STORE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR
MAINLY WINDWARD SLOPES. A FIELD OF SHOWER-BEARING CUMULUS CLOUDS
LIES ABOUT 175 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS AND EXTENDS OVER 600
MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FIELD IS BEING ENHANCED SLIGHTLY
BY A SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT
AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS HEADED INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS
BRIEFLY PASSING OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH A DECREASE IN WINDWARD SHOWERS IS LIKELY FOR MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS
STILL EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT THIS FEATURE WILL
HAVE. DURING THIS TIME...THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
ALSO WEAK...LEADING TO A DECREASING TREND IN THE TRADE WINDS.
RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO HINTING AT WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE TODAY...BUT WITH SCT MVFR
CEILINGS IN SHOWERS ON WINDWARD AREAS OF ALL ISLANDS.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE LONG WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND IMT S THRU W OF
MOUNTAINS BELOW 080 EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE LONG
WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM
HST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE ISLANDS STRENGTHENS. THE
ADVISORY MAY BE ADJUSTED LATER TODAY TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COASTAL
ZONES.

SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH SWELLS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. MODERATE WIND SWELL WILL AFFECT EAST SHORES WHILE SURF ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORES IS RETURNING TO MINIMAL SUMMER LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR THE WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BEDAL

THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD

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HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

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HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VALID 00Z SUN MAY 26 2013 - 00Z SUN JUN 02 2013

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK... WITH UPPER RIDGING FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII BEFORE EXPANDING OVER THE STATE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES OVER 1.50IN IS FORECAST FOR
TUE-THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT... WHICH SUPPORTS
SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MID-WEEK /WINDWARD ENHANCED/ BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ENTERS THE REGION THEREAFTER...
DECREASING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.


FRACASSO

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Last Updated: 749 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

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