Saturday, August 30, 2014 596-SURF , 596-WAVE , 922-BONG , 638-RUSH , 572-SURF(MAUI) , 241-SURF (KAUAI) , 324-RUSH (BIG ISLAND)
   
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000
FXHW60 PHFO 300147
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOME INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...PRODUCING CLOUD BUILDUPS AND
SOME SHOWERS...WHILE LAND BREEZES BRING CLEARING AT NIGHT.
STRONGER TRADES MAY RETURN TO THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD
SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE KAU AND
KONA COASTS OF THE BIG ISLAND. AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE
ISLANDS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL LOW CLOUD SWIRL...APPARENTLY
MARKING A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HILO AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EAST-WEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FAR TO OUR NORTH ALONG 40N...WITH A WEAK REMNANT LOW FROM FORMER
EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL NEAR 30N 150W...AND A MUCH
LARGER REMNANT LOW FROM FORMER EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE
NEAR 29N 134W. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT 88D VWP DATA
INDICATE GENTLE AND SLIGHTLY BACKED TRADES OVER THE STATE...WITH
PWATS RANGING FROM 1.02 INCHES AT LIHUE TO 1.5 INCHES AT HILO...
AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL INVERSIONS BASED AROUND 10K FEET. STABLE
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT...WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND
-2C...AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HIGH WILL
REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND FAR TO THE NORTH...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANT LOWS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
ALONG 30N AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INITIALLY
A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL MOVE WESTWARD
THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY WEAKENING OR DISRUPTING
THE TRADES FURTHER. THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADE WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE...WITH A CONVECTIVE
SEABREEZE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/SHOWERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOME INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. ENOUGH
TRADE FLOW WILL LINGER TO MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. LAND BREEZES SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
NEARBY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE
REGIME OVER HAWAII...BUT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES) MOVING THROUGH
THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS...WHEN SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZES.

THE GENTLE TRADE WIND PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH LABOR DAY...AS THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK AND FAR TO THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUED HYBRID REGIME
TO CONTINUE OVER THE STATE...WITH SEABREEZES AND LAND BREEZES ACROSS
SOME LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS WELL AS SOME CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS PERSISTING WINDWARD. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES TRADES INCREASING BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNDER THE LIGHT TRADES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUILD
UP OVER LEEWARD AREAS... MAINLY FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE ISOL MVFR CONDITIONS EMBEDDED. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND ALLOW
FOR CLEARING...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD AREAS. WINDWARD AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NO
AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ACROSS THE
SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT THIS SWELL TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...
WITH YET ANOTHER VERY LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FORECAST TO ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. SURF MAY WELL REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAST SWELL APPEARS TO HAVE MAXED OUT BELOW LEVELS NEEDED TO
PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA SURF...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY
FOR EAST FACING SHORES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS OF 25 KT OR GREATER ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH
AND EAST.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...EATON



The Weather Prediction Center

College Park, MD

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion




Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 30 2014 - 00Z Sat Sep 06 2014

Island trades should lighten over the next couple of days, but may
near seasonal levels midweek as high pressure settles NNE of the
state. A still favored composite of reasonably compatable model
and ensemble mid-larger scale guidance suggests that limited
moisture and instability will limit shower activity.

Schichtel





Last Updated: 828 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014




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