Tuesday, July 29, 2014 596-SURF , 596-WAVE , 922-BONG , 638-RUSH , 572-SURF(MAUI) , 241-SURF (KAUAI) , 324-RUSH (BIG ISLAND)
   
Text Size
Login
off 2/20/14; off 3/27. on 4/4. on 7/20/14
Banner
Banner

000
FXHW60 PHFO 290137
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
TRADES WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SURGE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE
STATE...WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH FAR
TO THE NORTH. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 4KFT AT
LIHUE TO 6KFT AT HILO. THE HILO INVERSION IS ALSO WEAKER...WITH A
SECONDARY INVERSION NEAR 12KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ALSO
1.34-1.44 INCHES RESPECTIVELY...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A POCKET OF MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND WELL UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST.

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW GAGES ON
THE BIG ISLAND PICKING UP MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS. THE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING HAS THINNED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. HAVE LOWER
POPS A BIT TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE HIGH DOES NOT
STRENGTHEN...WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. OVERALL WE EXPECT A TYPICAL TRADE WIND SETUP WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...AT LEAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS DIPPING EVEN LOWER FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS WE HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO SEE AT LIHUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NO NOTICEABLE
SOURCES OF MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY
BREEZY AT TIMES.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WE MAY SEE A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAT COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. EXTENDED MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN BACK
AND FORTH WITH TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH TO BRING THE MOISTURE...SO
IT IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THEY
SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BIG ISLAND LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE ISOLATED TCU WITH TOPS BETWEEN 150 AND 180 KFT ALONG THE LEE
SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA SHOULD BEGIN WEAKEN WITH SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...WEATHER OVER ISLANDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BENIGN INTO THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRING ISOL MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY GUSTY TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF
THE TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO OTHER AIRMETS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A WIDE AREA OF 25 KNOT WINDS
THROUGH THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL...WITH SOME 25 KNOT BARBS NEAR SOUTH
POINT AS WELL. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL BRING BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
SURF FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES. A LARGER SWELL FILLING IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SURF FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES BY SATURDAY. SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EAST FACING SHORES...POSSIBLY INCREASING A BIT THROUGH THE
WEEK AS TRADES STRENGTHEN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...EATON


The Weather Prediction Center

College Park, MD

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion




Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
703 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 29 2014 - 00Z Tue Aug 05 2014

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that island trades situated
well underneath higher latitude blocking periodically enhances as
pressure graidents tighten with passage of a series of tropical
features to the south of the state. A favored guidance composite
indicates that this occurs even with any weakening of high
pressure bridged to the north of the state in response to the
block. Moisture and showers may enhance otherwise limited windward
showers as the remnants of Genevieve now near 144W pass just south
of the islands by Friday/Saturday as followed by the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center. Another tropical disturbance upstream
near 134W is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center and
could spread more moisture into the state by Sunday/Monday.

Schichtel





Last Updated: 703 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014




Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner
Banner

Login Form