Monday, April 21, 2014 596-SURF , 596-WAVE , 922-BONG , 638-RUSH , 572-SURF(MAUI) , 241-SURF (KAUAI) , 324-RUSH (BIG ISLAND)
   
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000
FXHW60 PHFO 210134
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
334 PM HST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CREATE LOCALLY
WINDY TRADES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TRADES WILL EASE OFF A BIT AS
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY BY MIDWEEK. THE STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW PASSING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SIDES AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY. DRIER AIR AND FEWER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED ABOUT 1000 MI ALMOST DUE N OF
PHNL AT 18Z KEEPING LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS BLOWING. THE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SURFACE HIGH... HELPING TO LOWER AND STRENGTHEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT
AND MON. SO FAR...ONLY KAMUELA HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS... BUT A FEW MORE SPOTS COULD SEE WINDS NEAR OR AT
ADVISORY LEVEL LATER ON...THUS WILL LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY IN
PLACE FOR NOW. IT IS WORTH REITERATING THAT THIS ADVISORY IS NOT
IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARTS OF ALL ISLANDS...BUT MAINLY FOR AREAS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE SMALLER MOUNTAIN RANGES AND OVER
HEADLANDS.

THE TRADES WILL RELAX A BIT TUE AND WED AS THE HIGH TO THE
NE MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE N OF THE ISLANDS WED NIGHT...
BUT THIS HIGH WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE. IT
WILL STALL OUT N OF THE ISLANDS...IN ALMOST SUMMERLIKE FASHION...
KEEPING LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES BLOWING ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS SEEN ON THE MIMIC PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANIMATION RIDING IN ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO MON...KEEPING SOME PASSING SHOWERS GOING FOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE BRISK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BRIEFLY TO NEARBY LEEWARD LOCATIONS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD DRY OUT
AGAIN BY ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH FEWER SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM SFC TO ABOUT 10K WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS BETWEEN 5K AND 8K ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND. WILL BE KEEPING AIRMET TANGO FOR MT WAVE TURB TO THE LEE OF
ALL ISLANDS IN EFFECT INDEFINITELY.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS TONIGHT WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE LEEWARD
PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY
ISOLATED BUT CURRENT TREND IS FOR INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. WILL LIKELY NEED AN AIRMET FOR MT OBSC OVERNIGHT FOR WINDWARD
SLOPES AND COASTS OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS
AS WELL.

FEW REPORTS OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. NO AIRMET
ISSUED OR ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL GIVE A NON-AIRMET MENTION IN THE
WA0HI.

&&

.MARINE...
THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODEL SHOWS WINDS
PEAKING JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL TOMORROW.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD HAVE TO UPGRADE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ TO A WARNING IF THE MODELS ARE A BIT UNDERDONE ON
THE WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO JUSTIFY THAT.
WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY /HSA/ AS EAST FACING
SHORES ARE CONTINUING TO SEE SURF HEIGHTS INCREASE...AND MANY
AREAS WILL EXCEED THE 8 FEET FACE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MON FOR WAIANAE COAST-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI
LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH
AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

HSA UNTIL 6 PM HST TUE FOR KAUAI WINDWARD- OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SCA UNTIL 6 PM HST MON FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

&&

$$
R BALLARD/ASB


THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION




HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 00Z MON APR 21 2014 - 00Z MON APR 28 2014


STILL NO CHANGE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF ASSESSMENTS FOR THE
HAWAI'IN WEATHER DURING THE NEXT WEEK. ESSENTIALLY UNDISTURBED
TRADE WINDS ARE INDICATED BY THE CONSISTENT EUROPEAN CENTRE
ENSEMBLE MEAN ACROSS HAWAI'I FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS MODEST AT BEST, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
AVAILABLE FOR OCCASIONAL WINDWARD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE ISLAND
CHAIN. SEVEN-DAY QPF FROM THE 00Z/20 27-KM ECMWF RANGES ROUGHLY
FROM ONE-HALF TO SEVERAL INCHES.  THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF 10N, WITH THE POLAR
JET MOSTLY CONTAINED ALONG 40N.


CISCO





Last Updated: 824 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014




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