Forecast Discussion

Synopsis

17 Apr 2024 13:19:00 GMT: Mostly dry and pleasant conditions will prevail through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north. Light to moderate northerly winds will shift out of a more typical northeast trade wind direction today, then remain in place through the weekend. As the trades return, clouds and light showers will favor the typical windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning hours.

Discussion

17 Apr 2024 13:19:00 GMT: The latest model guidance has initialized well with the current pattern and depicts mostly dry conditions prevailing through the weekend as high pressure builds north of the state. The northerly winds will linger this morning, then shift out of the northeast through the rest of the day (light enough for localized land and sea breeze conditions). Although mostly dry conditions will prevail, a weak upper trough moving in today through Thursday, combined with a remnant low-level moisture boundary settling south into the area may be enough for a few light showers over north through northeast facing slopes. The light northeast flow will become breezy Thursday, briefly weaken late Friday through Saturday as a weak system passes to the north, then shift out of the east and return to breezy levels Sunday into early next week as high pressure builds to the north.

Aviation

17 Apr 2024 13:19:00 GMT: Light north to northeast flow will allow local sea breeze development across sheltered areas today. Expect brief MVFR conditions across windward and mauka locations, especially within sparse showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. No AIRMETS are in effect and none are expected today and tonight.

Marine

17 Apr 2024 13:19:00 GMT: Light to moderate northerlies will veer to the northeast today. High pressure will build north of the region and drift east as trades persist into next week, becoming moderate to fresh by this weekend. Surf along south facing shores came in notably higher and will hold through Thursday as overlapping south swells will keep elevated surf through the end of the week. The current northwest swell will become increasingly north as it gradually lowers through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores remains small through late week before trending up slightly as trade strengthen late this week.