Wednesday, July 30, 2014 596-SURF , 596-WAVE , 922-BONG , 638-RUSH , 572-SURF(MAUI) , 241-SURF (KAUAI) , 324-RUSH (BIG ISLAND)
   
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off 2/20/14; off 3/27. on 4/4. on 7/20/14
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000
FXHW60 PHFO 291846
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR TRADE WINDS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS INTO
FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES FAR NORTH OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA IS RATHER DRY SO ONLY BRIEF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY AND SPREAD UP THE
ISLAND CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS WILL BE THE LIKELY RESULT WITH THE TRADE WINDS
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW SOME SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AT TIMES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE SO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER WITH
CLOUDS AND PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ALOHA STATE TODAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AREAS OF MVFR IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FROM PASSING LOW CLOUDS
AND ANY ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS.

THERE ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS JUST DOWNWIND FROM
THE MOUNTAINS...THUS AN AIRMET FOR TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE HAS
BEEN POSTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH A LARGER SOUTH SWELL EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...KINEL



The Weather Prediction Center

College Park, MD

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion




Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 30 2014 - 00Z Wed Aug 06 2014

Mid-latitude stagnation--in the Pacific flow pattern--offers some
degree of ensemble agreement for upper-level troughing along 150W
longitude.

The 29/00Z ECENS/GEFS for a slow northeastward migration of a
closed h5-to-sfc low through the central gulf of Alaska and
maintain a surface ridge to the northeast of the Hawai'ian Islands
into day 6 (4/00Z).  

This allows remnants of 'Genevieve' to pass south of the islands
and maintain a general track along 20N latitude through the
upcoming weekend.

Unfortunately, the deterministic GFS/ECMWF agree that it will be
an active period in the tropical east Pacific with additional
tropical disturbances progged to develop invof 15N 125W (an
origination region/point) around day 3 (Friday)...and follow a
track that is a tad north and west of where 'Genevieve' is progged
to move through time.

Can see merit in blending pieces of the GFS/ECMWF deterministic
with their means to handle the next 7 days.

Please monitor/consult more detailed information from the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center concerning
tropical weather developments.

Vojtesak





Last Updated: 824 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014




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