Wednesday, September 17, 2014 596-SURF , 596-WAVE , 922-BONG , 638-RUSH , 572-SURF(MAUI) , 241-SURF (KAUAI) , 324-RUSH (BIG ISLAND)
   
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000
FXHW60 PHFO 170130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE ISLANDS AND DRY...STABLE AIR ALOFT...WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL...
AND BOOST WIND SPEEDS A BIT STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL BE WINDWARD
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RATHER DRY AND STABLE SO RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY
THURSDAY AND THE TRADES WILL BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL SEA
AND LAND BREEZES TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MORNINGS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW VOLCANIC HAZE TO BUILD UP AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CARRY
THE HAZE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE IS APPROACHING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY SUNDAY SO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONLY
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE SLOPES. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SLOPES DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS
AND OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF REPORTS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SOUTH SWELL GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN BOTH SIZE AND PERIOD...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FADE AWAY BY FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ROLL IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON



The Weather Prediction Center

College Park, MD

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion




Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 17 2014 - 00Z Wed Sep 24 2014

Models and ensembles reasonably agree in the overall weather
pattern for the Hawaiian islands for much of the upcoming week.
Water vapor imagery shows a nearly stationary trough/low over the
state overtop distrupted island trade flow, albeit with a
weakening front lingering near the Big Island that may focus short
term moisture and some showers. Expect light trades over the next
few days as very modest high pressure bridges to the north of the
state in the wake of the front and a supporting eastern Pacific
low. Trades become disrupted again late week into next week as
another front works to the north of the state, leading again into
a pattern with some sea/land breeze showers. 

Schichtel





Last Updated: 816 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2014




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