PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 4 to 8 feet this morning, increasing to 7 to 10 feet by mid day, and decreasing to 4 to 6 feet Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet this morning, increasing to 4 to 7 feet by mid day, and decreasing to 2 to 4 feet Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today, decreasing to 2 to 4 feet Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet with locally highers sets today, decreasing to 2 feet or less Thursday.

Outlook

Outlook through Wednesday December 14: the current west-northwest swell will peak today then begin to trend down through the rest of the week. The north northeast swell and lingering easterly swell will slowly trend down through Friday. A new long-period west-northwest swell is forecast to fill in Monday night and persist through mid week. Surf should remain well below advisory levels along all shores through early next week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
12/05
5N12810DOWN4-6VRBSAME
5ENE947SAME
2SSW1524SAME
TUE
12/06
5N11610SAMELOW7-10NESAME
4ENE935DOWNLOW
2SSW1424SAMELOW
WED
12/07
4WNW17610UPMED4-6VRBSAME
4NNE1157SAMELOW
3E946DOWNLOW
1SSW1222DOWNLOW
THU
12/08
3NW1446DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
3NNE1035DOWNLOW
2E924SAMELOW
FRI
12/09
3NNE1035SAMELOW4-6VRBSAME
2E712DOWNLOW
SAT
12/10
2NNE1024DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
4NNW1046UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Mix of swell from around the compass to start off the week. Detailed: Mid Monday on has breakers from 340-020 degrees at levels less than the December average. Similar surf is expected on Tuesday. The nearby low pressure area to the immediate north of Hawaii has had strongest winds aimed at targets west of Oahu, though close enough for angular spreading to bring surf locally. The pattern has been slowly drifting NE. It is predicted to move into the gulf of Alaska 12/7-8. Shorter-period swell of 9-13 seconds from 340-020 degrees should be long-lived locally with a slow downward trend Tuesday to Saturday as the dominant direction veers on the compass more toward NNE. Further west, a low pressure area in the Kamchatka corner 12/2-3 had a short-lived fetch of severe gales to storm-force winds at the edge of the basin over the 305-315 degree band about 2400 nm away. It was weaker, more compact, and further away than the previous low pressure west of the dateline that produced the above average surf locally of 12/2. Long-period forerunners are due overnight Tuesday with the event building Wednesday at levels near the October average from 305-315 degrees. It should peak mid to late Wednesday then slowly drop into Friday. Models show a large area of surface low pressure in the immediate W to N quadrant relative to Hawaii 12/8-10. Models have been mixed on strength. The area will be monitored for potential surf this weekend. Mid Monday on has breakers at levels higher than the trade windswell average from 60-90 degrees. Similar surf is likely on Tuesday with a downward trend. A long, wide fetch of strong trades within 135-155°W longitude to the E to NE of Hawaii last week through Sunday 12/4 is the source for the long-lived easterly surf locally. The upstream trades weakened on Sunday and are mostly moderate or less by Monday 12/5. The conveyor belt was long enough to the east to keep surf rolling into Wednesday, with a sharper drop off by Thursday from 60-90 degrees. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the trends in local winds and weather. Mid Monday on has breakers a notch below the summer average from 185-220 degrees. Similar surf is expected on Tuesday. Low pressure in the Tasman sea 11/25-27 moved SE of New Zealand 11/28. It weakened as it moved further east 11/29. This event should hold with a mix of Tasman and New Zealand direction from 180-220 degrees on Tuesday then start to fade by Wednesday. Into the long range, a severe gale SE of Tasmania 12/4-5 could have low, long-period swell locally from 208-220 degrees 12/13-14. In the northern hemisphere, a blocking ridge near the dateline on the Aleutians is predicted to keep low pressures tracking from near Hokkaido, Japan NE to the Kamchatka corner spaced about 2 days apart starting 12/6. These compact systems with the 2400 nm travel distance are likely to produce only small events locally. The first one is due Sunday 12/11 from 305-315 degrees. Closer to Hawaii, low pressure systems east of the dateline 12/8-12 will be monitored for surf potential. Large differences in model output make for low confidence in forecasts. Stay tuned for up to date information as the weekend approaches. This collaborative forecast will resume on Thursday, December 8. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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