Pat Caldwell

Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet today, decreasing to 2 to 4 feet Saturday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, decreasing to 1 to 3 feet Saturday. Surf along south facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Saturday. Surf along east facing shores 2 to 4 feet through Saturday.
Outlook
Outlook through Thursday July 9: the current south swell will be reinforced with another small to moderate south swell over the weekend. This southerly source expected over the weekend could generate near advisory level surf by Sunday. A small, out of season, northwest swell has peaked and will gradually trend down over the weekend. A small reinforcement out of the northwest is possible Monday night through Tuesday night. Short-period easterly trade-wind swell will gradually trend back toward normal by the end of the weekend and into early next week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: quiet spell. DETAILED... MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS TINY TO SMALL BREAKERS FROM A MIX OF SWELL. SIMILAR SURF IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY. A LOW...SHORT-PERIOD BUMP FROM WITHIN 310-340 DEGREES WAS GENERATED WEST OF THE DATELINE 6/7-9. THIS WEAK PULSE PEAKED THURSDAY 6/11. IT SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. NO OTHER SOURCES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD FROM WNW TO N. NE-COMPONENT WINDSWELL AFFECTING NORTH SHORES 6/12 IS DESCRIBED BELOW. MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS SMALL BREAKERS FROM A MIX OF SOURCES. HURRICANE BLANCA 6/5-8 TRACKED NORTHWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA. LOW...MODERATE-PERIOD SWELL FROM THIS SOURCE FILLED IN LOCALLY THURSDAY 6/11. BREAKERS ARE BELOW THE TRADE WINDSWELL AVERAGE. IT SHOULD HOLD ABOUT THE SAME 6/12 AND DROP 6/11. A BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY FRESH BREEZES WITH POCKETS TO STRONG FILLED THE REGION STARTING ABOUT 500 NM TO THE NE OF HAWAII ALL THE WAY OVER TO CALIFORNIA. THE NEARBY PORTION HAS TURNED UP THE WINDSWELL ON FRIDAY 6/12 AS NOTED BY THE PACIOOS/CDIP BUOY NETWORK FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEAR-SHORE REGIONS FROM KAUAI TO THE BIG ISLAND. IT IS MAKING FOR BREAKERS A NOTCH BELOW THE TRADE WINDSWELL AVERAGE FROM 30-50 DEGREES. IT IS MODELLED TO HOLD ABOUT THE SAME INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DROP INTO MONDAY. THE PORTION CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA HAD SOME STRONG TO NEAR GALE BREEZES BEYOND 1500 NM FROM HAWAII. WAVE WATCH III MODEL BRINGS IN THIS LOW ENERGY WITHIN THE 11-13 SECOND PERIOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND HOLDING INTO WEDNESDAY 6/15-17 FROM 40-60 DEGREES. SEE THE LOCAL NWS STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AN EXPLANATION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN REGARDING THE LOCAL BREEZES LEANING GENTLE TO MARGINALLY MODERATE. THIS MAGNITUDE IS TOO LOW TO PRODUCE BREAKERS FROM WINDSWELL. MODERATE BREEZES ARE PREDICTED TO RETURN TUESDAY 6/16 WITH A MILD INCREASE IN BREAKERS FROM THE SHORTEST WAVE PERIODS FROM 60-90 DEGREES. THESE BREAKERS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE REMOTE NE SOURCE. MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS TINY TO SMALL...SUMMER BACKGROUND LEVEL SURF FROM WITHIN 150-220 DEGREES. AN INCREASE IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY FROM 180-200 DEGREES. A FAST-MOVING SEVERE GALE TRACKED EAST ALONG 60S TO THE S TO SE OF NEW ZEALAND 6/4-5. THE WAVE GROWTH GENERATION WAS DURATION-LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSED THE 180-200 DEGREE GREAT CIRCLE BAND RELATIVE TO HAWAII. A SHORT-LIVED PULSE HAS LOW ODDS OF FILLING IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY 6/12-13...WITH PEAK HEIGHTS BELOW THE SUMMER AVERAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO SUMMER BACKGROUND LEVELS BY LATE SUNDAY AND HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY. INTO THE LONG RANGE...AN AUSTRAL WINTER-CALIBER...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONIC MODE IS SETTING UP SE OF NEW ZEALAND 6/12. THE INITIAL STAGES LATE 6/11 TO EARLY 6/12 ARE TOO CLOSE TO THE NEW ZEALAND SHADOW...THOUGH OF STORM-FORCE MAGNITUDE. MODELS SHOW THE PATTERN SHIFTING EAST AWAY FROM THE SHADOW...WITH GALES TO STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE 185-200 DEGREE BAND 6/13-14 AS THE LOW CENTER OCCLUDES. THE SLOW MOVING CENTER NEAR 948 MB SHOULD ALLOW A LONG DURATION AND SUFFICIENT FETCH LENGTH TO BRING SURF ABOVE AVERAGE LOCALLY. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS ARE DUE FRIDAY 6/19. HEIGHTS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE WITHIN 6/20-22 FROM 180-200 DEGREES. NO SOURCES OF SURF ARE EXPECTED FROM MID LATITUDE SOURCES IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 6/16-18. TRADE WINDSWELL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM 60-90 DEGREES. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO MAJOR REVISIONS. THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY...JULY 3. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
06/12
2NNW1023DOWN9-13ENESAME
4NE934UP
2E1324SAME
2S1123SAME
SAT
06/13
2NNW913DOWNLOW9-13ESAME
3NE924DOWNLOW
2E1123DOWNLOW
2SSW1424UPLOW
SUN
06/14
3NE812SAMELOW9-13ESAME
2S1324DOWNLOW
MON
06/15
3NE812SAMELOW9-13ESAME
2S1123SAMELOW
TUE
06/16
3NE1235UPLOW11-16ENEUP
2S1123SAMELOW
WED
06/17
3NE1135SAMELOW11-16ENESAME
2S1123SAMELOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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