PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet tonight, rising to 2 to 4 feet Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet through tonight, rising to 3 to 5 feet Thursday.

Outlook

Outlook through Wednesday June 01: a southwest swell is expected to slowly build Thursday, peak Friday, then slowly subside over the weekend, with surf along south facing shores remaining below the advisory level. A small northwest swell is possible Sunday and Monday. A small southerly swell will be possible by next Wednesday. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
05/25
5ENE824DOWN11-16ESAME
2SSW1334DOWN
THU
05/26
4E713DOWNMED9-13ESEDOWN
2SW1736UPLOW
FRI
05/27
2N1013UPLOW9-13ESESAME
3E712DOWNLOW
3SW1647SAMEMED
SAT
05/28
2N812DOWNLOW7-10SEDOWN
3E712SAMELOW
2SW1435DOWNLOW
SUN
05/29
2NW1424UPLOW4-6VRBSAME
2SW1334DOWNLOW
MON
05/30
3NNW1246SAMELOW4-6VRBSAME
2SSE1534UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Mix of surf from around the compass. Detailed: Mid Friday on northern shores has near nil surf. Heights should remain at summer levels on Thursday. The north Pacific has had a consistent pattern of jet level troughs with areas of weak surface low pressures. These can make for low episodes locally. A weak low pressure north of Hawaii near 42°N 5/23-25 had a narrow fetch of strong breezes aimed at Hawaii, and near gales aimed east of Hawaii. This could bring tiny to small breakers rising Friday and dropping Saturday from 350-010 degrees. A low pressure gained gale status near 52°N, 170°E 5/24. It is modeled to move north of the Aleutians by 5/26. Near to low-end gales over the 315-325 degree band late 5/24 into 5/25 are expected to last into Wednesday night. The head of the fetch is beyond 2200 nm away. The long travel distance limits local surf potential. A small event is predicted to pick up Sunday afternoon, peak Monday from 320 degrees, and drop Tuesday. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers from 60-90 degrees a notch below the trade windswell average. Heights should trend down Thursday. Trades over Oahu and eastward out 800 nm have held at moderate levels with pockets to strong levels well east of Oahu. This is keeping the local windswell active. The local and upstream winds are expected to favor the gentle to moderate bracket Thursday into Friday. This should keep breakers below the average Thursday to Saturday from 60-100 degrees with a downward trend. Heights should fall to a seasonal minimum Sunday into Monday from 40-100 degrees. Mid Wednesday on southern shores has breakers from 185-195 degrees at levels below the March to October, seasonal average. This shorter period event is fading. A new event is due on Thursday. A storm-force low pressure tracked NE in the Tasman sea 5/19-20 with seas building above 40 feet west of New Zealand. Gales behind a front pushed into the sub-tropics, and fresh to strong breezes well into the tropics 5/21-22. The pacioos/cdip american samoa buoy showed a steady rise 5/23 from both the long-period remote swell of 14-22 seconds and the closer post-frontal, shorter-period swell of 10-14 seconds. The time series of swell height, summed up for all wave periods greater than 10 seconds, had a Christmas tree signature centered on Monday night with peak heights to 7 feet. The heights and dominant wave periods have steadily dropped 5/24-25. Surf in Hawaii from Tasman sources rarely surpasses the seasonal average, except for cases such as this where the source winds of high magnitude push further northward. For the highest Tasman events in Hawaii, the heights fall into a bracket just a notch above the average for top exposures. The Tasman direction has limited surf potential and large error bars on the local surf estimate due to shadowing by SW Pacific islands. Long period swell of 17-22 seconds is expected to fill in locally overnight Wednesday through Thursday. Inconsistent arrival of the largest sets is typical during the onset stage. The event should be filled in by Friday when it is predicted to peak from 200-220 degrees. It should drop near the seasonal average by Saturday morning, and steadily drop below average into Sunday. Background tiny to small breakers from 208-220 degrees could linger on Monday 5/30. A large area of gales to storm-force winds SW of Easter Island is aiming high seas at the Americas. Angular spreading could give low swell locally from 150-170 degrees starting Monday and lasting a few days at levels below the seasonal average. Into the long range, a new low pressure in the Tasman sea 5/23-25 was much weaker than the first system. Top seas were near 25 feet. This event is due locally late Tuesday 5/31, peaking 6/1 from 208-220 degrees a notch below the seasonal average. Windswell from 40-90 degrees should remain low 5/31-6/1. Large areas of weak low pressure in the north Pacific will be monitored for NW to NE surf potential 5/31-6/3. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, May 27. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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