PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Tuesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet through Tuesday.

Outlook

Outlook through Monday Aug. 01: a trade wind swell along with some distant tropical cyclone swells will be filling in and continue through the rest of the week. There will also be a series of small southerly swells through most of week. Surf heights will remain below advisory levels. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
07/25
3ENE1024DOWN9-13ESEUP
4E612SAME
2S1323SAME
TUE
07/26
2ENE1013SAMELOW11-16EUP
5E724UPLOW
2SSW1434UPLOW
WED
07/27
6E724UPLOW13-19EUP
2S1323DOWNLOW
THU
07/28
7ENE735UPLOW17-21ENEUP
2SSW1535UPLOW
FRI
07/29
7ENE846UPLOW17-21ENESAME
2S1434DOWNLOW
SAT
07/30
8ENE847UPLOW17-21ENESAME
2SW1736UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Quieter spell. Detailed: Mid Monday on eastern shores has dropping breakers from 40-90 degrees at levels leaning below average. Surf should remain low on Tuesday. Low, shorter-period swell of 8-12 seconds is expected to linger Monday through Tuesday and decline on Wednesday with heights below the trade windswell average. It was generated by tropical cyclone Estelle beyond 1500 nm from Hawaii mid to late last week. High pressure near 40°N, 140°W is expected a slow westward shift this week. A wide, long fetch of moderate to fresh breezes are expected to shift westward with the high cell. This should trend up the local windswell to near the average by Thursday and nosing above average into the weekend from within 40-90 degrees. Low swell from hurricane georgette generated while the system is east of 140°W is expected to fill in to Oahu Thursday and hold into the weekend from 80-100 degrees. Breakers will likely to be smaller than the closer generated windswell. Mid Monday on southern shores has low, summer background level conditions. A slight increase is possible for Tuesday. A quiet spell is expected for southern shores with peak days near the summer average this period and into early next week. A compact, marginal gale NE of New Zealand 7/18-19 tracked rapidly east. The southern NOAA buoys 51003 and 51004 show a slight uptick in the 13-15 second energy late Monday morning 7/25. Surf from this source should remain below the summer average as it fills in late Monday and holds on Tuesday. It should be short- lived. A storm-force system just north of the antarctic ice sheet in the southern Tasman sea 7/19 tracked east along 60s. As it nosed eastward south of New Zealand, the system weakened. A front pushed to the NE backed by low-end gales to the east of New Zealand. Low, long period swell from the Tasman, 208-220 degrees should add to the background surf locally on Wednesday, with an increase from 185-200 degrees for the portion E to SE of New Zealand on Thursday. It may reach the summer average on Thursday though short-lived. A storm-force system further north in the Tasman west of New Zealand 7/22-23 has better odds for 208-220 degree energy locally, filling in Saturday 7/30. Into the long range, the Tasman event should hold into Sunday near the summer average. Once the system moved east of New Zealand 7/24-25, winds dropped to marginal gales. Surf at levels below average from 180-200 degrees are possible locally 8/1-3. Georgette is modelled to weaken on its westward course 7/26-28. It is too early for specifics on surf potential locally. Model output on 7/25 suggests only enhanced windswell locally Sunday 7/31 at levels a notch above average. The windswell portion of georgette should be short-lived, with average trade windswell by 8/1-3. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, July 27. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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