Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Wednesday August 5: small southerly swells will persist through the forecast period. Trade winds will cause short period choppy surf along east facing shores. A swell from tropical activity east of the islands may boost surf late in the weekend through the middle of next week for the east facing shores. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Friday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Friday. Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Friday.
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About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Quiet spell for south shores with eastern exposures trending up. Detailed: Mid Wednesday on southern shores has breakers slightly above the seasonal average. Heights are expected to drop on Thursday. A slow-moving low pressure pattern east of New Zealand 7/17-21 was the source for the recent above average south swell event. The southern Hawaii NOAA buoys and the pacioos/cdip buoy off SW Oahu 7/29 show a slow downward trend with wave energy in the 12-16 second bands from 180-200 degrees. There will like be below to near average remnant, shorter-period breakers on Thursday with the event fading out by Friday. A zonal austral jet stream close to Antarctica steered a fast-moving surface low pressure eastward to the S to SE of New Zealand 7/22-23. Low swell from within 180-200 degrees could keep summer background, below average surf Thursday to Saturday. A gale to severe gale in the Tasman sea 7/26 weakened as it moved east. Highest seas were east of Tasmania during the onset. Near gales behind a cold front pushed near the north end of New Zealand by 7/28. Shadowing by islands of the SW Pacific block most swell for Hawaii in this 208-220 degree winds. The start of a below-average event is expected Monday. This low event should be short-lived. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has tiny to small conditions under mostly moderate trades. An increase in waves and winds is predicted for Tuesday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for an explanation of the upcoming local wind expectations. Ascat satellite 7/27-28 shows a large area of gentle to moderate winds to the ENE of Hawaii. This is keeping surf at a minimum locally. The uptick in trades over and E to ENE of Oahu Thursday into Friday should trend the breakers up to near the trade windswell average on Friday. It is expected to stay elevated through the weekend from within 60-90 degrees. Tropical features in the eastern and central north Pacific will be monitored for influence on surf this period. Fine-tuning can be made as the weekend approaches. Into the long range, surface high pressure is modelled to intensify and move to a position north of Hawaii over the weekend and into next week 8/3-5. Tropical features to the E in combination with the large surface high pressure to the N suggest above average breakers from within 50-100 degrees 8/4-6. It is too early for specifics. The Tasman sea low has moved east of New Zealand 7/28-29. Models show it gaining strength late 7/29-30, then moving east of the Hawaii swell window 7/31. Winds are expected to be mostly marginal gales. Wave watch iii shows 5 feet swell with 13 second periods from 190 degrees at pago pago, american samoa late Sunday into Monday 8/2-3. Shorter period swell travels slower. This suggests a below to near average event picking up late Thursday or Friday 8/6-7 from 185-195 degrees. It should be short-lived. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, July 31. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
07/29
5E612SAME11-16ESAME
3SSW1347DOWN
THU
07/30
6E623UPMED13-19EUP
2SSW1235DOWNLOW
1SSW1824UPLOW
FRI
07/31
7E734UPLOW17-21ESAME
1S1624DOWNLOW
SAT
08/01
7E846UPLOW17-21ESAME
1S1413DOWNLOW
SUN
08/02
7E846SAMELOW13-19EDOWN
MON
08/03
6E835SAMELOW13-19ENESAME
1SW1623UPLOW
Disclaimer
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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