Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Friday April 3: a moderate northwest swell is expected to fill in late tonight and peak Sunday, then gradually subsiding through Tuesday. This swell may produce surf reaching advisory levels for north and west facing shores. A trade wind swell will lower tonight and maintain through the weekend, bringing calmer conditions across east facing shores. Small background surf will remain for south facing shores through the forecast period. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, building to 6 to 8 feet tonight, and then rise to 8 to 12 feet Sunday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet today, building to 3 to 5 feet late tonight, and then 6 to 8 feet Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Sunday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Sunday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: mix of swell directions through the period with active surf around the island. Detailed: mid Friday on northern shores has a declining episode from 320-350 degrees with 10-13 second intervals. Heights should fade out late Saturday as a new episode slowly builds. A fast-moving low pressure system strengthened as it tracked NE past the longitude of Hawaii 3/24. Surf from this source peaked on Thursday near the September to may seasonal average. The tail of the fetch of fresh to strong breezes was about 1200 nm away 3/25, which should keep small, short-period breakers locally on Saturday 3/28 from 320-350 degrees. A low pressure formed east of the Kuril Islands on Tuesday 3/24. It tracked east along 45°N, setting up a captured fetch over the 290-310 degree band, since the growing seas had a similar speed to the speed of the low pressure cell. The gales remained active into Thursday as validated by the ascat satellite, nosing to the dateline with seas within 20-25 feet. Once east of the dateline, the winds are aiming more NE of Hawaii as the low pressure tracks towards the gulf of Alaska. Surf from this source is predicted to build overnight Saturday night, reaching above the seasonal average on Sunday for the peak of the event, then dropping to near the average on Monday from 290-315 degrees. With the swell spread over a large area of the north Pacific, the event should linger Tuesday into Wednesday as it declines from 290-330 degrees. Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers from windswell out of 70-90 degrees near the trade windswell average. Similar surf is expected on Saturday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the complexities driving the wind field this period. To the east of Hawaii, fresh trades are modelled to hold, keeping surf locally near the trade windswell average through the weekend, with a downward trend Monday from 70-90 degrees. Mid Friday on southern shores has surf at levels commonly seen on summer days in Hawaii, with highest locations receiving inconsistent sets and many locations nearly flat. Low, long-period swell is predicted to hold through the period. A massive low pressure area SW of Easter Island 3/20-23 aimed huge seas towards the Americas. Angular spreading is allowing the low swell to reach Hawaii. The pacioos/cdip buoy off barbers PT shows a rise in the long-period swell from 160-170 degrees on 3/27. The low energy can also be seen in NOAA southern Hawaii buoys 51002 and 51004. This event should be long-lived, holding near the summer average for top spots facing the swell from 160-170 degrees. It should slowly decline Tuesday to Wednesday. Into the long range, the austral fall season has been active for the furious fifties between 50-60s to the S to SE of New Zealand as a zonal jet steers back-to-back gale to storm-force systems eastward. This should allow low, long-period swell locally at summer background levels with inconsistent sets from 180-200 degrees 4/2-6. In the north Pacific, a weak zonal jet is modelled to spread from the subtropics to the Aleutians 3/28-31, indicating a lull in surf for 4/2-3. Windswell from 70-90 degrees is expected to be below to near average. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, March 30. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
03/27
4NNW1157DOWN17-21ESAME
8E846SAME
1SSE1725UP
2SSW1224DOWN
SAT
03/28
3NNW935DOWNLOW11-16EDOWN
5E835SAMELOW
2SSE1736SAMELOW
SUN
03/29
7WNW161216UPMED13-19ENEUP
6E835SAMELOW
2SSE1636SAMELOW
MON
03/30
6NW141012DOWNMED13-19EDOWN
6E835SAMELOW
2SSE1536SAMELOW
TUE
03/31
3NW1346DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
4E824DOWNLOW
2SSE1435DOWNLOW
WED
04/01
2NW1024DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
4E824SAMELOW
2SSE1224DOWNLOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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