Pat Caldwell

Hazards
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
Forecast
Surf along south facing shores will increase to 2 to 4 feet this afternoon through Monday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 2 feet through Monday. Surf along east facing shores will rise to 4 to 8 feet this afternoon and 6 to 10 feet tonight through Monday. Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday.
Outlook
Outlook through Saturday August 8: an easterly swell from hurricane Guillermo will begin to fill in today and continue through the middle of the week before tapering off Thursday. A series of small southerly swells should move across the area during the second half of the week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Windward side topping the heights. Detailed: Mid Friday on southern shores has below average, summer background level surf. Similar conditions are likely for Saturday. A fast-moving severe gale S to SE of New Zealand hugging the antarctic ice sheet 7/22-23 is the dominant background source for Hawaii on 7/31 from 180-200 degrees. This weak pulse should linger into Sunday. A severe gale low pressure system east of Tasmania weakened as it moved east. An associated cold front backed by marginal gales pushed northward in the Tasman sea reaching near 35°S. With the weak source, long travel distance, and shadowing by islands in the SW Pacific, only background level surf is expected locally. It should pick up on Monday from 208-220 degrees, peak Tuesday at below average heights, and drop Wednesday. Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers below the trade windswell average from within 60-90 degrees. Heights should pick up a notch on Saturday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the evolving local trades and associated driving weather features in the vicinity. Ascat satellite Thursday 7/30 showed fresh to strong trades within 20-22°N near 145°W, or about 800 nm away. This could add slightly longer dominant wave period by Sunday, giving breakers another slight boost at heights below to near the average from within 60-90 degrees. An area of fresh to strong breezes from near 35°N, 145°W, to west of oregon 7/29-31 could add some 8 second wave period from 40-50 degrees by late Sunday into Tuesday. Associated deep water windswell heights should be low, so breaker heights should not top the average. See the latest National Hurricane Center discussions and forecasts of hurricane Guillermo. At its mid day position 7/31, Oahu is in the swell shadow created by the more eastern Hawaiian islands. It is expected to remain in the shadow over the weekend. With the uncertainties to tropical cyclone forecasts, speculation to Oahu ocean conditions 8/4-5 do not deem an attempt. A clearer picture for Oahu surf mid to late next week 8/4-7 will be possible starting Monday 8/3. Into the long range, the Tasman sea low pressure system moved east of New Zealand 7/28. The marginal gale continued a slow pace east 7/29-31. The system aimed well towards Hawaii, but has been magnitude deficient. Shorter-period swell of 12-14 seconds are predicted for Oahu next Friday 8/7 from 185-200 degrees at levels below the average. It should last a few days 8/8-9. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, August 3. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
07/31
5ENE723UP11-16ENESAME
1S1413SAME
SAT
08/01
4E734UPLOW13-19ENEUP
1S1413SAMELOW
SUN
08/02
5ESE1668SAMELOW13-19ENEDOWN
1S1312DOWNLOW
MON
08/03
4NE823UPLOW11-16ENESAME
5ESE13812UPMED
TUE
08/04
4NE823SAMELOW11-16NESAME
6ESE13812UPMED
WED
08/05
4NE823SAMELOW11-16NESAME
8E131012UPMED
1SW1312DOWNLOW
Disclaimer
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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