PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet through Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Friday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today, lowering to 2 to 4 feet Friday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, rising to 3 to 5 feet Friday.

Outlook

Outlook through Thursday May 12: the current northwest swell will gradually decline through the week. Moderate northerly winds combined with building surf will lead to rough conditions along north facing beaches late Friday night through much of Saturday. Easterly trade swell will diminish late in the week, but start to fill back in early next week from a more northeasterly direction. A long period south swell will gradually build starting Friday, peak Saturday night near advisory levels, then gradually diminish through early next week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

Footer

GIBBS

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
05/04
3WNW1747UP13-19ESAME
6ENE845SAME
2S1324SAME
THU
05/05
3WNW1446SAMELOW9-13ESESAME
6ENE845SAMELOW
2S1223DOWNLOW
FRI
05/06
3WNW1235DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
5ENE834DOWNLOW
2S1835UPLOW
SAT
05/07
5NNW1168UPLOW19-23NNEUP
7N624UPLOW
3S1768UPMED
SUN
05/08
5NNW1168DOWNLOW17-21NESAME
7NE734UPLOW
4S1568DOWNMED
MON
05/09
5N1057SAMELOW17-21NESAME
7NE846UPLOW
3S1446DOWNLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Active spring pattern from around the compass. Detailed: Mid Wednesday on northern shores has rising, long-period breakers from 300-310 degrees at levels near to notch above the may average. Similar surf is expected on Thursday. A low pressure reached storm-force on 4/29-30 just east of the Kuril Islands. Seas grew to 25 feet over the 300-310 degree band beyond 2300 nm from Hawaii. The system weakened sharply 5/1 near 170°E. Nw Hawaii NOAA buoy 51101 showed a rise in the 15-17 second band overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning 5/4. The pacioos/cdip Waimea buoy off Oahu shows a steady rise during the morning hours. This episode will likely peak Wednesday night. With the long travel distance, the event should be long-lived. Surf heights should gradually decline Thursday into Friday from the same direction as the dominant wave period lowers. A new low pressure formed late 5/3 near 40°N on the dateline. It is tracking rapidly NE 5/2. A strong surface high pressure system is following this system, setting up a wide area of strong breezes with pockets to near gales behind a front advancing towards Hawaii 5/4-6. This should bring the surf up locally of mostly short- period nature from within 310-360 degrees, and some lower long- period energy from 320-345 degrees. With the onset of northerly component local winds, conditions are expected to be disorganized Saturday into Sunday. A new low is modeled to form near 30°N to the north of Hawaii 5/6-7 with a NE track. Combined with a surface high pressure NW of Hawaii, it should keep short-period surf from 350-010 degrees locally for 5/8-9 at levels near the may average. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers from 40-90 degrees near to a notch above the trade windswell average. Similar surf is expected on Thursday. Surface high pressure near 35°N, 145°W has maintained fresh to strong trades over a large area stretching from Hawaii out over 1000 nm. It has set up a long conveyor belt of windswell that should hold about the same into Friday then trend down into Saturday from 40-90 degrees. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the changing local winds. Fresh to strong breezes behind a shearline are expected on Saturday, with the direction veering from N to NE within Saturday to Sunday. Windswell from 000-045 degrees should trend up during this time, reaching average levels by late Sunday. Northerly exposures on the east side should have higher breakers 5/8-9 as described above. Mid Wednesday on southern shores has southern season background level conditions, with small, inconsistent breakers at top spots and many surf zones near nil. More of the same is predicted for Thursday. A low pressure strengthened near 60s on the dateline SE of New Zealand 4/29. The center tracked NE with an associated front pushing northward. Strongest winds near the low center reached storm force while gales followed the front to near 35°S. It had a long, wide fetch just at the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window. The pacioos/cdip buoy off samoa showed a sharp rise in 16-18 second band late 5/3, continuing into 5/4 from 170-180 degrees. Estimates of deep water swell height are within 6-8 feet, which is higher than predicted by the Wave Watch III model. The buoy data is guidance to nose up the numbers for the local surf estimate. Southerly swells typically take 24-36 hours to fill in since the extra-long wave period energy of lower magnitude travels much faster than the primary swell. The onset is due locally Friday. The event should be filled in on Saturday from 175-185 degrees. It should peak late Saturday at levels above the seasonal average, then slowly trend down 5/8-9. Into the long range, south shores should return to background levels by 5/10 and hold to 5/13 from within 140-220 degrees. In the northern hemisphere, short-period N surf should be on the decline 5/10. Models show low pressure systems tracking east along the Aleutians next week with potential for a small NW to NNW event 5/11 locally and another a few days later. Breakers from trades should hold near to a notch above the trade windswell average from 40-80 degrees 5/10-12. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, May 6. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

Footer

NWS AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

Back to Top