Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Tuesday March 10: a series of small northwest swells will continue into the weekend. A larger but relatively short-period north swell is expected to arrive Sunday which may approach advisory levels for exposed east facing shores. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet through Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Thursday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: short-period N into the weekend, trending up Sunday. Detailed: mid Wednesday for northwest exposures has low, rising surf from 310-320 degrees. Heights from this direction should remain small on Thursday. A low pressure off the Kuril Islands 2/28 weakened as it moved east, reaching east of the dateline 3/2. Seas were highest at 20-25 feet in a region beyond 2100 nm away 3/1. Travel distance reduces surf potential locally. The pacioos/cdip buoy off Waimea, Oahu 3/4 shows a rising trend in the 14-16 second energy from 310-320 degrees. This event is expected to peak Wednesday night and slowly decline on Thursday from the same direction. The low pressure system that started near the Kurils became a weak trough east of the dateline.passing the longitude of Hawaii late on 3/3. Fresh to strong breezes, with pockets to near gale, covered a wide fetch beyond 1200 nm away 3/2-3 over the 325-350 degree band. Shorter period swell of 10-12 seconds from this source should build mid Thursday, peak early Friday at small levels, and fade out Saturday. A blocking jet stream level ridge formed over the western to central north Pacific 3/2-4. Low pressure systems forming near Hokkaido, Japan are being kept on the margin of the Pacific basin as they track NNE. Low odds for small surf from 315-330 degrees building late Saturday and dropping Sunday. Mid Wednesday for north to northeast exposures has rough breakers from 355-045 degrees at levels above the trade windswell average. A slight increase is expected on Thursday. A large surface high pressure near 1040 mb just east of the dateline in combination with a meridional, or north-south, pattern of low pressure NNE of Oahu has set up a wide, long fetch of fresh northerly breezes, within 350-030 degrees. A compact low pressure cell formed along the meridional low pressure trough near 30°N, 155°W 3/3, and is moving slowly NNE 3/4. It has areas of strong to near gale breezes on the west side of the center. The head of the fetch is about 300 nm away. This is aiding the growth of the dominant wave periods. The Waimea and Kaneohe buoys show an increase in the 8-10 second band on 3/4 from 000-045 degrees. This pattern should keep active N to NE windswell above the trade windswell average into Saturday. As the low cell and trough to the NNE of Oahu moves NNE 3/5, local breezes are expected to increase into fresh speeds, keeping choppy conditions from within 000-045 degrees Thursday to Saturday. Models show a new short-wave, upper-level trough filling into the existing upper-level trough near 150°W on 3/5. The resulting sharp trough is modelled to morph into an eddy by 3/6. The large, upper-level gyre is modelled to hover to the N to NNE of Hawaii through the weekend. See the NWS state forecast discussion for more details. At the surface, a deepening low pressure cell is modelled to form near 40°N, 150°W 3/6 with a SSW track 3/7-8. Gales are predicted on the W to NW side of the low, leading to a captured fetch for winds over 350-020 deegrees with the S motion of the low center. This should trend up the surf Sunday into Monday, 3/8-9. It should rise above average by late Sunday, peaking on Monday 3/9. Mid Wednesday on easterly exposures has breakers near the trade windswell average from 060-100 degrees, with added N windswell as described above for select exposures. The E windswell was generated by fresh to strong breezes within 140-155°W to the east of Hawaii 3/1-3. It is expected to trend down Thursday and fade to within tiny to small by Friday. Mid Wednesday on southerly exposures has inconsistent, moderate-period breakers from 160-170 degrees. It was generated by a large extra-tropical cyclone to the SW of Easter Island 2/22-25. This episode peaked locally 3/3 and is expected to slowly decline Thursday into Friday. No other episodes beyond tiny are expected from the southern hemisphere this period and next week 3/10-12. Into the long range, above average N swell Tuesday 3/10 should trend down below the north shore seasonal average by Wednesday 3/11. Models show a new low pressure forming near the dateline by the Aleutians with a SSE track 3/9-11. This suggests a NNW episode locally starting around 3/12. It is too early for specifics. Models show gentle to moderate local winds with low windswell from 000-045 degrees 3/10-11. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, March 6. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
03/04
2NW1524UP13-19NNEUP
6NNE957UP
5E824DOWN
2SE1424SAME
THU
03/05
3NW1446SAMELOW17-21NNEUP
8NNE968UPLOW
2SE1323DOWNLOW
FRI
03/06
3NNW1235SAMELOW17-21NESAME
8NNE968SAMEMED
SAT
03/07
7NNE957DOWNLOW17-21NEDOWN
SUN
03/08
6N12610UPLOW9-13NEDOWN
MON
03/09
9N131418UPLOW9-13NESAME
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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