PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Friday. Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet tonight, increasing to 2 to 4 feet on Friday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Friday.

Outlook

Outlook through Thursday September 01: no significant swells are expected through early next week. By the middle of next week, long period easterly swell generated by potential tropical cyclone activity east of Hawaii may begin to affect the state. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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MORRISON

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
08/24
3NE934DOWN7-10ESESAME
2SSW1323SAME
THU
08/25
2NE912DOWNLOW12-18EUP
2S1213SAMELOW
FRI
08/26
5E613UPLOW12-18ESAME
1S1623UPLOW
SAT
08/27
2NW1024UPLOW12-18ESAME
5E724UPLOW
1S1523SAMELOW
SUN
08/28
2NNW924DOWNLOW13-19EUP
6E734UPLOW
1S1413SAMELOW
MON
08/29
6E734SAMELOW13-19ESAME
1S1413SAMELOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Low mode. Detailed: Mid Wednesday on southern shores has minimal summer surf. The pacioos/cdip buoy shows peak period and direction as 13 seconds from 195 degrees, respectively. Heights are expected to remain low on Thursday. Angular spreading likely the dominant source for surf in Hawaii Friday through the weekend out of 170-190 degrees. A low pressure intensified as it track east from the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window 8/17-19, aiming highest seas at the Americas. Mid Wednesday on northern shores has near flat conditions with tiny breakers for select ne-facing exposures. Summer conditions are expected on Thursday. A broad area of weak low pressure NNW of Hawaii 8/22-23 aimed fresh to strong breezes over the 325-345 degree band at Hawaii in a region beyond 1400 nm away. Low odds for tiny windswell building mid Saturday and falling Sunday. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has declining, small breakers from 30-50 degrees. Heights are expected to be lower on Thursday. The remote windswell from 45 degrees peaked on Tuesday 8/23 with breakers near the trade windswell average for top reporting exposed location. Ne NOAA buoy 51000 shows a steady drop in the 8-12 second band Wednesday morning 8/24. The pacioos/cdip mokapu buoy off Kailua, Oahu is also dropping Wednesday morning. This event should fade out on Thursday. Moderate to marginally fresh trades are modelled to fill in over Oahu and to the E to ENE starting Thursday and hold into the weekend. A slight increase is suggested by Sunday. Breakers from windswell are expected to remain below average with a slow upward trend Friday to Monday out of mostly 60-90 degrees. Into the long range, another remote batch of fresh to strong breezes beyond 1200 nm to the NE of Hawaii is modelled for 8/25-27. This could bring a similar NE bump starting late next Monday and peaking Tuesday 8/30. Local windswell is also suggested to increase 8/30-31 from 60-90 degrees. Models continue to show tropical cyclonic activity east of Hawaii early next week. The elusive nature of these systems allows only a general long-range forecast, an upward trend within 8/31-9/2 from within 80-100 degrees. Typhoon lionrock south of Japan is modelled to have some easterly component to the track under near category 3 hurricane strength 8/26-28. This track is favorable for surf in Hawaii. Low, long- period swell from 270-290 are possible within 9/2-4. Shadowing on Oahu by Niihau and Kauai lower local surf potential. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, August 26. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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