PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be flat to 1 foot through Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet this afternoon and 3 to 5 feet Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.

Outlook

Outlook through Wednesday August 03: rough, trade wind surf along east facing shores will increase slightly through Friday as the winds strengthen with little change then expected through the weekend. Otherwise, no significant swells are expected. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
07/27
5ENE724SAME13-19ENEUP
2S1323DOWN
THU
07/28
7ENE734UPLOW17-21ENEUP
2SSW1535UPLOW
FRI
07/29
8E846SAMEMED17-21ENESAME
2SSW1434DOWNLOW
SAT
07/30
7ENE956DOWNLOW13-19ENEDOWN
2SW1635UPLOW
SUN
07/31
5ENE945DOWNLOW11-16ENESAME
2SW1434SAMELOW
MON
08/01
5ENE834DOWNLOW11-16ENESAME
2SW1323DOWNLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Trending up east side toward the weekend. Detailed: Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers from 50-90 degrees below the trade windswell average. An increase is expected on Thursday. Surface high pressure near 40°N, 140°W has been nearly stationary 7/24-27. Ne of 30°N, 135°W to near California are areas of strong to near gale winds aimed at Hawaii. Within 20-30°N closer to Hawaii east of 150°W, fresh to strong breezes dominate. This large fetch area should increase the dominant wave period, which should fill into the island Thursday into Friday as the local trades increase as well. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for more details on local winds and weather. Breakers from 50-90 degrees should increase on Thursday, climbing above average by Friday. Heights should stay elevated into Sunday due to the longer than normal dominant wave period. Heights should trend down Monday below average. Surf from tropical cyclones georgette and Frank is expected to be negligible and overshadowed by the surf described above for Thursday to Monday. The systems were too far away and too compact to make significant surf locally. Mid Wednesday on southern shores has small breakers at summer background levels from within 180-220 degrees. An increase is possible for Thursday. A low pressure system was strongest in the southern Tasman sea 7/19 as it tracked east along 60s. Once east of the New Zealand shadow, the system weakened substantially. There were marginal gales behind a front east of New Zealand 7/20. The system moved east of the Hawaii swell window late 7/21. Seas were aimed highest for targets east of Hawaii. A mix of low, longer-period Tasman swell from 208-220 degrees and moderate-period swell from 180-200 degrees is expected to build overnight and peak locally late Thursday to heights near the summer average. The event should be short-lived. Storm-force winds in the Tasman sea west of New Zealand 7/22-23 should make surf for the weekend. Long-period swell could pick up late Friday, peak late Saturday, and drop Sunday into Monday from 208-220 degrees. Into the long range, marginal gales east of New Zealand 7/24-26 should make for background level surf from 180-200 degrees locally 8/2-3. A fast-moving, compact low moving east from the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window S of French Polynesia 7/27 has winds to storm-force. The limited size and duration should mean surf locally leaning within background to near the summer average 8/3-4 from 170-180 degrees. A long fetch of moderate to fresh breezes E to NE of Hawaii 7/30-8/2 should keep steady surf from windswell out of 50-90 degrees 8/2-4, leaning on the low side of average. Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, July 29. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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