PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH FACING SHORES

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 10 to 15 feet through Monday. Surf along west facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet tonight, rising to 6 to 10 feet Monday. Surf along east facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet tonight, lowering to 4 to 6 feet Monday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday.

Outlook

Outlook through Monday February 15: surf heights will remain at advisory levels across north and west facing shores through Monday, and remaining near advisory levels on Tuesday. A larger northwest swell is expected to reach the islands late Tuesday night, peaking Wednesday, then gradually subsiding Thursday through Friday. Surf heights are likely to reach warning levels over north and west facing shores Wednesday and Thursday. Another large northwest swell may arrive next weekend. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
02/05
3NNW1246SAME7-10SEDOWN
SAT
02/06
3NNW1135DOWNMED7-10NNWUP
SUN
02/07
9NNW10812UPMED17-21NSAME
MON
02/08
9NNW121014UPLOW11-16NEDOWN
5NNE1057DOWNLOW
TUE
02/09
8NNW141418SAMELOW4-6VRBSAME
WED
02/10
14NW173240UPLOW4-6VRBSAME

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Winter minimum into Saturday with rough N windswell Sunday. Detailed: Mid Friday on northern shores has waves about as low as they get for winter. Similar or slightly lower surf is predicted for Saturday. The jet stream was zonal over the western to central north Pacific 2/2-4 with week, fast-moving surface low pressure systems tracking eastward along 40°N. On such feature had gales on Tuesday 2/2 east of the dateline. It passed east of the Hawaii swell window 2/3. Seas were aimed highest NE of Hawaii. This event arrived locally lower than expected Friday 2/5 from 315-330 degrees with 9-13 second periods. Nw Hawaii NOAA buoys show shorter period swell holding steady Friday morning 2/5. Wave watch iii decreases the wave period for Saturday. Surf should remain at a winter minimum locally on Saturday. The jet stream is going meriodional, or more loops with troughs and ridges, N to NW of Hawaii 2/5-7. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the weather and winds associated with a frontal passage through Oahu, which is predicted for late Saturday. Fresh breezes with pockets to strong are modelled to follow the front and lead to a rapid rise in rough windswell just behind the front Saturday evening. The rough conditions should hold Sunday and weaken on Monday with breakers from windswell within 330-020 degrees. By Monday the direction should favor 350-030 degrees as it decays. Strong to near gale winds beyond 300 nm of Hawaii 2/6-7 are predicted to bring surf near to a notch above the October to April seasonal average Monday 2/8 from 330-345 degrees with 10-13 second wave periods. The weekend front is associated with a low pressure, which modelled to occlude NNE of Hawaii late Friday 2/5. The hurricane force winds are estimated to be aimed east of the Hawaii swell window. No surf is expected from this source. A gale low south of the Aleutians near the dateline 2/5 is modelled to merge into the occluded low pressure to the NNE of Hawaii 2/6-7. As this low tracks SE, a captured fetch of gales is predicted to nose to near 800 nm away over the 320-330 degree band by Sunday morning. Surf should build locally Monday night above average and hold through Tuesday. Models show a rapidly deepening low pressure well NE of Japan early Sunday, with central pressure dropping below 950 mb Sunday 2/7 afternoon near 45°N just west of the dateline. The system is modelled to occlude and spin with a slow eastward drift east of the dateline 2/8-9. A long fetch of severe gale to hurricane- force winds is predicted to cover the 315-325 degree band with the head of the fetch about 1400 nm away mid Monday. The occlusion point is further away than the source of similar magnitude that produced the giant surf locally of 1/27. With the additional 500 nm, wave dispersion during travel reduces swell size. This event is expected to be lower than 1/27. Fine tuning can be made for the surf height estimate on Monday 2/8 once satellite measurements of ocean surface winds and seas become available. Extra-long period forerunners of 22-25 seconds are modelled to fill in the wee hours pre-dawn Wednesday. The episode should climb steadily Wednesday morning into the extra-large size category, meaning breakers on outer reefs. By late afternoon, heights could reach marginally giant levels, defined as peak face for less frequent, larger waves topping 40 feet in breaker zones of high refraction on outer reefs. Nearshore waves are lower. No surf beyond tiny to small is expected from the southern hemisphere through the period into the long range. Models do keep roughly 1 feet deep water swell offshore Hawaii 2/6-13 from source SE to SW of New Zealand, so off and on breakers above nil at select spots are possible within 180-220 degrees. Into the long range, models show a new low pressure occluding near 45°N, 170°E 2/9-10. It is expected to remain far away with a broad fetch over the 290-315 degree band. It should bring surf above average for the weekend of 2/13. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, February 8. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER POWELL AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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