No high surf advisory or warnings.
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Friday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Friday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet tonight, increasing to 2 to 4 feet on Friday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Friday.
Outlook through Thursday September 01: no significant swells are expected through early next week. By the middle of next week, long period easterly swell generated by potential tropical cyclone activity east of Hawaii may begin to affect the state.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
Collaborative Surf Table
Collaborative Surf Table Legend
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Low mode.
Detailed: Mid Wednesday on southern shores has minimal summer surf. The pacioos/cdip buoy shows peak period and direction as 13 seconds from 195 degrees, respectively. Heights are expected to remain low on Thursday.
Angular spreading likely the dominant source for surf in Hawaii Friday through the weekend out of 170-190 degrees. A low pressure intensified as it track east from the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window 8/17-19, aiming highest seas at the Americas.
Mid Wednesday on northern shores has near flat conditions with tiny breakers for select ne-facing exposures. Summer conditions are expected on Thursday.
A broad area of weak low pressure NNW of Hawaii 8/22-23 aimed fresh to strong breezes over the 325-345 degree band at Hawaii in a region beyond 1400 nm away. Low odds for tiny windswell building mid Saturday and falling Sunday.
Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has declining, small breakers from 30-50 degrees. Heights are expected to be lower on Thursday.
The remote windswell from 45 degrees peaked on Tuesday 8/23 with breakers near the trade windswell average for top reporting exposed location. Ne NOAA buoy 51000 shows a steady drop in the 8-12 second band Wednesday morning 8/24. The pacioos/cdip mokapu buoy off Kailua, Oahu is also dropping Wednesday morning. This event should fade out on Thursday.
Moderate to marginally fresh trades are modelled to fill in over Oahu and to the E to ENE starting Thursday and hold into the weekend. A slight increase is suggested by Sunday. Breakers from windswell are expected to remain below average with a slow upward trend Friday to Monday out of mostly 60-90 degrees.
Into the long range, another remote batch of fresh to strong breezes beyond 1200 nm to the NE of Hawaii is modelled for 8/25-27. This could bring a similar NE bump starting late next Monday and peaking Tuesday 8/30. Local windswell is also suggested to increase 8/30-31 from 60-90 degrees.
Models continue to show tropical cyclonic activity east of Hawaii early next week. The elusive nature of these systems allows only a general long-range forecast, an upward trend within 8/31-9/2 from within 80-100 degrees.
Typhoon lionrock south of Japan is modelled to have some easterly component to the track under near category 3 hurricane strength 8/26-28. This track is favorable for surf in Hawaii. Low, long- period swell from 270-290 are possible within 9/2-4. Shadowing on Oahu by Niihau and Kauai lower local surf potential.
Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, August 26.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to firstname.lastname@example.org or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
NCEI PAT CALDWELL