PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Sunday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Sunday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet through Sunday.

Outlook

Outlook through Saturday October 01: the current southwest swell is subsiding overnight and only small surf along south facing shores is then expected through the period. A small northwest swell will peak tonight, bumping surf up along the north and west facing shores for the remainder of the weekend. An easing in the trades will keep surf along the east facing shores low to moderate through the weekend. Trade winds are expected to strengthen again early next week, increasing choppy surf along east facing shores. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
09/16
1NW1723UP17-21ENESAME
7ENE846SAME
3SSW1446DOWN
SAT
09/17
5NW14810SAMEHIGH17-21ENESAME
7ENE846SAMEMED
2SSW1324DOWNMED
SUN
09/18
4NNW1368DOWNMED17-21ENEDOWN
7ENE846SAMELOW
2S1223DOWNLOW
MON
09/19
3NNW1246DOWNMED13-19ENESAME
6ENE835DOWNLOW
2S1113SAMELOW
TUE
09/20
2NNW1024DOWNLOW13-19ENESAME
6ENE734SAMELOW
2SSW1835UPLOW
WED
09/21
6ENE734SAMELOW13-19ENESAME
2S1735SAMELOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: South trending down and north trending up into weekend. Detailed: Mid Friday on southern shores has breakers from 190-220 degrees near to a notch above the March to October, active season, average. Heights should subside below average on Saturday. A combo tasman-east New Zealand fetch area 9/6-9 is the source for the surf locally 9/14-16. The pacioos/cdip buoy off Lanai shows steady energy into 9/16. The event is modelled to trend down over the weekend to background levels by Sunday. An austral winter-caliber low pressure to 944 mb hugged the antarctic ice sheet S to SE of New Zealand 9/12-14 and aimed highest seas at the Americas. The size of the elevated seas above 25 feet was large. Angular spreading should provide surf locally. It should slowly build on Tuesday with inconsistent sets from 180-200 degrees. It should be filled in on Wednesday 9/21 as it peaks. Mid Friday on eastern shores has choppy breakers from 50-90 degrees near to a notch above the trade windswell average. Similar surf is likely for Saturday. Surface high pressure N to NE of Hawaii and lower pressure to the immediate SE to SW of Hawaii has set up fresh trades 9/16. The pattern is expected to hold into Saturday, with a downward trend Sunday as the pressures rise south of the islands. The upstream fetch of moderate to fresh trades is predicted to hold about the same into mid week. Breakers from windswell should be highest over the weekend then subside Sunday into Monday. Heights should be near to a notch below average Tuesday to Wednesday from the same direction 50-90 degrees. Mid Friday on northern shores has a slowly rising event from 310-330 degrees. Heights should steadily climb Friday afternoon into the evening. A low pressure formed off Kamchatka 9/11 with an eastward track along 50°N. It is in the gulf of Alaska 9/16. It set up a long, wide fetch of gales to severe gales over the 310-325 degree band 9/12-13 as the head of the fetch reached the dateline. Wave generation was highest while west of the dateline since the seas became more aimed NE of Hawaii once east of the dateline 9/14-15. Nw Hawaii NOAA buoy 51101 shows a sharp rise in the 15-17 second wave energy Friday morning 9/16. The event should be filled in by Saturday dawn from 310-330 degrees with breakers above the September average, which is 6 feet peak face for the h1/10th breakers. The maximum for the episode is likely mid Saturday. Given the remote, long fetch, the event should be long-lived with a slow change from Saturday to Sunday, as the directional band expands within 310-340 degrees. Heights should fall to the September average by Monday and fade out Tuesday centered near 330 degrees. Into the long range, the jet stream is shifting north and becoming more zonal 9/15-16. Models show a similar pattern 9/17-20 with fast-moving, weak low pressures near the Aleutians. This should lead to a spell of summery conditions for the north shore 9/21-24. The S to SSW event should hold into Thursday 9/22 with a slow downward trend into 9/24. A zonal, more poleward jet stream position has also set up S to SE of New Zealand 9/15-16 and expected to hold into the long range, which spells below average southerly surf locally filling out the rest of the month. Tropical cyclone Orlene has weakened considerably on 9/16. No surf beyond the sieze of the expected local windswell is expected next week 9/21-23 from Orlene. Tropical cyclone season is far from over, so the pattern E to S of Hawaii will be monitored for surf generation. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, September 26. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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