Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Tuesday April 7: a small short-period northwest swell will continue through the weekend. A small but longer period west northwest swell is expected to arrive Monday and continue into Tuesday. Background southerly swell will persist through the forecast period. A moderate short-period easterly swell will gradually build into the weekend, possibly reaching high surf advisory Saturday night. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet this evening lowering to 1 to 3 ft Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 2 feet through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 5 to 7 feet through Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: east shores trending up for the weekend, spilling waves to select north and south shores with more easterly exposures. Detailed: mid Monday on northern shores has small breakers from 300-345 degrees. Heights are predicted to drop on Thursday. A low pressure maintained gales 3/24-26 as it tracked east from Japan to the dateline. Surf from 290-310 degrees peaked locally Sunday into Monday. Wave energy from this directional band is lingering on Wednesday 4/1 and should fade out on 4/2. As the low pressure moved east of the dateline 3/27, it tracked more to the NE. The broad system aimed highest seas NE of Hawaii. The pacioos/cdip Waimea buoy off Oahu is out of service but their Hanalei, Kauai buoy is working. It shows energy in the 10-12 second band from 330-345 degrees holding steady 4/1. Models suggest small energy to continue into Thursday from this direction as it fades out. A spell of below average surf is expected this period into the long range for northern shores. The primary jet has shifted northward and weak branches of more southerly latitudes have surface features compact and too far away for significant surf locally. A compact, short-lived, fast-moving low pressure cell formed east of Japan 3/30 and weakened 3/31 as it moved east. The head of the fetch of gales over the 300-305 degree band was beyond 2200 nm. Low odds for a small episode to pick up locally late Saturday, peak Saturday night, and drop Sunday. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has surf near the trade windswell average from 70-90 degrees. A slight increase is predicted for Thursday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for an explanation and trend of the local winds. Surface high pressure cell hovering at 30-35°N, 135-150°W is expected to hold into early next week. A weak surface trough east of the Big Island to the south of the high is helping to produce strong trades between 20-30°N, 135-155°W. This wide source region has allowed the dominant wave period of the windswell to rise locally, which in turn, allows higher breakers. Models suggest the fresh to strong breezes to nose into Oahu from the east Saturday into Sunday, giving the surf a boost to above average levels. It is expected to remain elevated into Monday from 70-90 degrees. Mid Wednesday on southern shores has remnant surf from the long-lived SSE episode. This event is expected to fade out on Thursday as summer-type, background, long-period swell from within 180-220 degrees takes over. Refracting east-component windswell should hold through the period. The austral fall season over the higher latitudes within 50-70s have seen an active extra-tropical cyclonic pattern for the longitudes from Tasmania to south of French Polynesia, with low pressures systems spaced about 3 days apart. Each of these systems has had gales to severe gales, though aimed best at the Americas. These sources are sufficient to keep summer background surf off and on through the period and into next week. This gives highest locations inconsistent sets around the small mark. Into the long range, additional moderate-period waves of 12-14 seconds are expected from 170-190 degrees 4/6-8 at levels near the summer background heights. It was generated by a sub-tropical low pressure east of New Zealand 3/27 that strengthened as it tracked ESE 3/28-31, with peak strength at lower-end gale level. In the northern hemisphere, another compact, short-lived, fast-moving gale tracking ESE from Japan 4/1-3 is modelled to weaken east of 170°E. This would give another WNW bump around next Tuesday 4/7. Fast-moving low pressure areas hugging the western to eastern Aleutians will be monitored for small NW to N surf potential locally 4/9-11. Trades are expected to be in spring mode with speeds locally within moderate to strong and surf from windswell from 40-90 degrees at average or higher levels 4/7-10. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, April 3. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
04/01
3NNW1146DOWN13-19EUP
6E835SAME
2SSE1224DOWN
THU
04/02
2NNW1024DOWNLOW17-21EUP
7E846UPLOW
2SSE1124DOWNLOW
FRI
04/03
6E835DOWNLOW13-19EDOWN
2SSW1524UPLOW
SAT
04/04
2WNW1324UPLOW17-21EUP
8E968UPLOW
2SSW1424SAMELOW
SUN
04/05
2WNW1124DOWNLOW19-23EUP
9E9810UPLOW
MON
04/06
9E9810SAMELOW19-23ESAME
2S1324SAMELOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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