PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, rising to 4 to 6 feet Monday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet today, rising to 2 to 4 feet Monday. Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, lowering to 1 to 3 feet Monday.

Outlook

Outlook through Sunday June 05: a small northwest swell will fill in through the day today, then peak on Monday before easing Tuesday and Wednesday. The current southwest swell will continue to fade through Monday. A similar southerly source will fill in Tuesday through Thursday. Surf will gradually rise through the week along east facing beaches in response to moderate trade winds returning. Surf will remain well below advisory levels along all beaches through the week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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GIBBS

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
05/27
1NNE1012UP9-13ESESAME
4E712SAME
3SW1646SAME
SAT
05/28
2NNE913DOWNLOW7-10SEDOWN
3E712DOWNLOW
2SW1435DOWNLOW
SUN
05/29
2NW1434UPLOW4-6VRBSAME
2SW1324DOWNLOW
MON
05/30
3NNW1246SAMELOW9-13NEUP
2S1213SAMELOW
TUE
05/31
2NNW1023DOWNLOW13-19NEUP
6NE623UPLOW
2S1213SAMELOW
WED
06/01
2NNW913DOWNLOW13-19ENESAME
6ENE724UPLOW
2SW1434UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Below average surf. Detailed: Mid Friday on northern shores has flat to tiny breakers. A tiny to small event is expected to build late Friday 5/27 from 000-020 degrees. A weak low pressure about 1200 nm N of Oahu 5/23-25 had a narrow fetch of fresh to strong breezes aimed at Hawaii with stronger winds aimed E of Hawaii. The NOAA NW Hawaii buoy 51101 and the pacioos/cdip near shore buoy off Waimea, Oahu show a mild upward trend in the 8-12 second band. This short-lived episode is predicted to peak overnight from 350-020 degrees and steadily decline Saturday. A marginal gale just south of the western Aleutians east of the dateline 5/24-25 had a wide, long fetch of strong to near gale winds with pockets to low-end gales over the 315-325 degree band. The source was short-lived as the associated low center tracked north of the Aleutians by 5/26. Seas grew to 15 to 20 feet. The long travel distance beyond 2200 nm limits surf potential locally. Surf is predicted to pick up locally Sunday afternoon from 315-320 degrees. It should peak on Monday from 315-325 degrees, then slowly decline to tiny by early Wednesday. Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers below the trade windswell average. Heights should trend down Saturday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the local wind pattern. To the E to NE of Hawaii, winds 5/26-27 have declined to mostly gentle with pockets to moderate. This should coincide with the dropping windswell locally from within 60-90 degrees. A new surface high pressure is modelled to shift eastward from the dateline along 30°N 5/29-31. Local breezes from 30-50 degrees are predicted to pick up mid to late Monday and veer more to 40-60 degrees by Tuesday as the wind speed increases. It should continue to veer and hold about the same in magnitude Wednesday. This could start a small windswell Tuesday into Wednesday from within 30-70 degrees, at heights below the trade windswell average. Mid Friday on southern shores has inconsistent, long-period surf from 208-220 degrees. Heights should decline on Saturday. A Tasman sea low pressure and associated front pushed well northward 5/19-22 with seas over 30 feet reach 30°S latitude near NW New Zealand. Islands of the SW Pacific shadow Tasman swell energy in the 200-220 degree band. Although the original fetch was wide, the open spaces between island groups turn the source into a set of apparently narrow fetches. This explains the inconsistency in the arrival of the common though less frequent, larger sets in Hawaii, with consistency proportional to fetch width. Noaa SW Hawaii buoy 51003 showed a maximum in the 17 second band last evening 5/26 that coincided with a maximum at the pacioos/cdip SW Oahu barbers buoy just after sunrise, and about an hour later at the Lanai buoy. A secondary maximum at 51003 was seen near sunrise 5/27 and should equate to a local bump Friday afternoon 5/27. Events from remote sources change slowly. Dispersion spreads the swell sorted by wave period groups across a large area, since the speed of the traveling wave groups is proportional to wave period. This should mean there should be still some surf near the summer average for the more active spells lasting a few hours into Saturday morning from the same direction. Heights should trend to background levels by Sunday. Background conditions from a mix of sources within 140-220 degrees should be the rule Monday into Tuesday. A weaker low pressure in the Tasman sea west of New Zealand 5/23-25 is expected to produce a near background level event locally 6/1 from 208-220 degrees. Into the long range, below average southerly swell is suggested through the first week of June. Models show jet level troughs and surface low pressure areas to return to the most common Hawaii surf source region E to SE of New Zealand within 6/1-4. This should mean surf locally to increase to at least average levels, with peak days above average from 180-200 degrees within 6/8-12. Weak low pressures in the north Pacific will be monitored for surf potential. Odds for surf beyond knee to waist high is unlikely 6/2-4. Trades are modelled to trend down 6/2-4 with a similar drop in windswell from 40-90 degrees. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Tuesday May 31. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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