PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet today, becoming 3 to 5 feet Tuesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today, and 2 to 4 feet Tuesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday.

Outlook

Outlook through Monday December 12: surf along east facing shores will gradually lower through the early part of the week. Moderate north to northwest swells will continue through the forecast period, but north and west facing shores are expected to stay below the high surf advisory threshold. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
12/01
2NNW1124SAME22-27ESAME
11E9610UP
1SSW1513SAME
FRI
12/02
7NW171418SAMEHIGH13-19ESEDOWN
10E9610DOWNMED
1SSW1413DOWNLOW
SAT
12/03
6NW131012SAMELOW7-10SSAME
7E1068DOWNLOW
1SW1713UPLOW
SUN
12/04
4NW1268DOWNLOW11-16SWUP
6E957DOWNLOW
1SW1513SAMELOW
MON
12/05
3NNW1146SAMELOW4-6VRBSAME
5E946DOWNLOW
1SW1413DOWNLOW
TUE
12/06
3N1046DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
4E935DOWNLOW
1SW1313DOWNLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Nw and E exposures topping the heights. Detailed: Mid Thursday on has breakers at a seasonal minimum. A sharp increase is due late Thursday 12/1. A winter-caliber low pressure of hurricane force tracked east of the Kuril Islands 11/28. It weakened as it reached the dateline near the Aleutians late Tuesday and moved north of the Aleutians on Wednesday. A wide, long fetch of severe gale to hurricane force winds aimed highest seas to 40 feet NE of Hawaii. A 00Z 2016-11-30 jason pass over the seas and swell measured heights of 28 feet near 40°N, 170°E, or about 2000 nm away, for the directional band near 310 degrees aimed at Hawaii. The rule of thumb of heights dropping by half for each 1000 nm miles of swell travel gives an estimate of 7 feet swell off Oahu. This is a foot above the Wave Watch III with GFS input winds for the Waimea output point, but in line with the jason pass that showed heights higher than the ww3 estimate for that time and location aforementioned. Nw Hawaii buoys 51101 and 51001 Thursday morning 12/1 show a jump up in the 17-24 second wave period bands. These long-period swell trains should slowly fill into Oahu Thursday afternoon. Before midnight 12/1, surf heights should build above the December average, which is 16 feet peak face for the common though less frequent higher wave groups, or h1/10 sets, from 305-315 degrees. The event should peak mid Friday a notch over the average. The wave energy from the 11/28-29 source should be long- lived due to the long travel distance, with a slow decline Friday night into Sunday from 305-315 degrees. A reinforcement swell is expected to overlap the first event from a similar direction. A new low pressure formed on the dateline near 40°N 11/29 and tracked rapidly NE. A wide area of lower-end gales set up over the 300-325 degree band nosing to near 1200 nm away late 11/30. This reinforcement is not expected to add much size to the first event, but it should make for higher arrival frequency of the larger sets locally on 12/3. The second low pressure is nearing the eastern Aleutians 12/1 with a short-lived, short-duration fetch just south of the central Aleutians about 1800 nm away. It is expected to leave the Hawaii swell window late on 12/1. This source should bring in a rise from 325-360 degrees late Sunday and peak on Monday 12/5 at levels well below average. Lingering low, short-period surf from 345-010 degrees is possible for Tuesday 12/6. Mid Thursday on has rough, well above average breakers from 60-90 degrees. Heights should remain above average on Friday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the local trends in weather and winds. Surface high pressure near 35°N, 135°W is expected to maintain fresh to strong trades with 140°W westward to near Hawaii into Sunday morning. This upstream source should keep the local dominant wave period of the windswell closer to swell characteristics than chop. Breakers should remain above the trade windswell average into Monday and fall to near the average by Tuesday 12/6 from 60-90 degrees. Mid Thursday on has infrequent, below summer but above December average breakers from 180-200 degrees. Similar low surf is expected on Friday. A gale SE of New Zealand 11/24-25 generated the surf arriving locally 12/1. It should linger about the same into Friday. Gales with pockets to storm force in the Tasman sea 11/26-27 should keep low swell from 208-220 degrees locally Saturday 12/3 through Tuesday 12/6. Into the long range, south side should fall back to the December average of near nil for southern hemisphere swell by 12/7 with no foreseeable change. Easterly windswell is expected to drop below average by 12/7 and remain low into the weekend of 12/10 from 60-90 degrees. Low pressure systems are modelled to form within a 1000 nm radius of Hawaii to the W through N quadrant 12/2-6. Models suggest highest seas aimed west of Hawaii. Short-period NNW to N swell is possible 12/7-9. Further west, a winter-caliber low pressure system in the sea of okhotsk 12/1 is modelled to move slowly east along 50°N, placing a fetch of gales to storm-force winds in the Kamchatka corner and east of the Kuril Islands 12/2-3. This could bring long-period swell locally from 305-315 degrees next Wednesday 12/7 at heights near the active season, September to may, average, of 12 feet peak face for the h1/10 sets. It should be short-lived. Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, December 5. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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