PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Sunday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Sunday.

Outlook

Outlook through Saturday September 03: easterly trade winds will continue to produce short period choppy surf along east facing shores through Tuesday. Although confidence at this time remains low with regard to exact track of tropical storm madeline, rising surf will become likely along east facing shores beginning as early as Wednesday as madeline approaches. This easterly source will become reinforced by another long-period easterly swell associated with distant hurricane Lester by Friday and Saturday. Advisory-level surf, if not warning level, will become a possibility Wednesday through Saturday. There will be a series of small south swells throughout the forecast period, which will continue to generate small surf along south facing shores. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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GIBBS

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
08/26
5E612SAME13-19EUP
2SSE1435SAME
SAT
08/27
5E724UPLOW13-19ESAME
2SSE1224DOWNLOW
SUN
08/28
2NNW913SAMELOW13-19ESAME
6E734UPLOW
MON
08/29
6E734SAMELOW13-19ESAME
TUE
08/30
3NE1035UPLOW13-19ESAME
6E734SAMELOW
WED
08/31
9ENE1068UPLOW22-27ENEUP
3E1446UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Summer low mode. Detailed: Mid Friday on southern exposures has breakers on the low side of average from 160-190 degrees for most spots and near average for SE exposures. Heights are expected to lower on Saturday. Two sources in the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere are giving the SSE event locally. A low pressure SW of Easter Island tracked SE as it gained storm-force 8/17-18. This is adding the swell energy from 160-170 degrees. Another low pressure due south of Hawaii within 40-60s 8/17 tracked east as it intensified, aiming highest seas at the Americas. Angular spreading is giving the swell energy locally within 170-190 degrees. Both should decline Saturday. Otherwise, there are no sources identified to bring surf beyond near flat to background level heights locally Sunday to Wednesday from the southern hemisphere. Mid Friday on northern exposures has near flat conditions. Similar surf is expected on Saturday with a mild trend up late in the day. Fresh to strong winds on the west side of a mid latitude low about 1600 nm to the NNW of Hawaii 8/22-23 is expected to give a bump from 330-345 degrees. This short-period event should pick up locally near sundown Saturday with tiny breakers through Sunday. It should be short-lived. Mid Friday on eastern exposures has breakers well below the windswell average from 60-90 degrees. A slight increase is possible for Saturday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the subtle ups and downs to the local trades over the weekend into early next week. Trades over and immediately E to NE of Hawaii within 600 nm are expected to hover within moderate to fresh speeds and bring breakers a notch under the trade windswell average Saturday to Tuesday from within 60-90 degrees. Well beyond 1000 nm to the NE of Hawaii 8/25-27, strong breezes on the SE flank of the NE Pacific high pressure system is predicted to give a NE windswell with 8-11 second periods from 30-60 degrees building Monday night and fading Wednesday. Heights could approach the trade windswell average for direct NE exposures. Tropical cyclonic activity within latitudes of Hawaii eastward to 140°W mid next week are expected to build surf locally Wednesday. The elusive nature of tropical cyclone prediction, and even more complications given two systems in the model packages runs 8/24-26, lead to a general statement for surf to be above average starting Wednesday from within 70-100 degrees. Into the long range, rough, above average, tropical cyclone surf from within 60-100 degrees is expected within 9/1-3. It is too early for specifics. Typhoon lionrock S to SE of Japan is slowly tracking NE 8/25-26. It is expected to generate low, long-period swell centered from 280 degrees filling in locally 9/2. Shadowing by Niihau and Kauai limit surf potential on westerly exposures of Oahu. Models show a 952 mb low pressure SE of New Zealand 8/28-29 with a steady eastward track along 60s latitude. The strength and size of the system would likely bring average to above average surf locally starting late 9/4, peaking late 9/5 to mid 9/6, and holding a few days from 180-200 digress. Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, August 29. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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