Outlook through Thursday December 03: a rather large northwest swell is expected to arrive Friday night, peak Saturday night and Sunday morning, then lower gradually Monday and Tuesday. Another large northwest swell is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strengthening trade winds will cause an increase in short period choppy surf along east facing shores. There will also be a series of small south swells throughout the forecast period. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the average height of the one third largest waves at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Surf along north facing shores will be 8 to 12 feet overnight, lowering to to 6 to 10 feet Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet overnight, lowering to 4 to 6 feet Friday. Surf along east facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet through Friday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Friday.
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Mix of short and long period swell from within NW to NE. Detailed: Mid Tuesday on northern shores has small breakers from 330-360 degrees with 8-12 second wave periods. Similar waves are expected on Wednesday as a new long-period event builds. The surface low pressure feature north of Hawaii that has been nearly stationary for several days has had an area of fresh to near gale breezes on the western side aimed highest west of Kauai 11/22-24. It is producing the NNW to N windswell arriving on Tuesday. This low pressure is weakening and drifting NNE as a surface high pressure builds east from the dateline along 30°N. An area of fresh to strong breezes within 340-020 degrees nosing near Hawaii is expected late 11/24-25. It should keep windswell from within 340-020 degrees into Thursday, making for less ruly breakers. The primary north Pacific jet stream has been slowly shifting southward west of the dateline. A series of surface low pressures have tracked from near the Kuril Islands into the Bering Sea near the dateline last week into this week. As the center of the low gains more southerly position relative to the Aleutians, a longer fetch is possible, which in turn trends surf potential up for Hawaii. A low pressure formed late 11/21 and gained hurricane-force status as it approached the dateline late 11/22 over the Aleutians. The system moved into the Bering Sea 11/23. The limited fetch length and duration due to the Aleutians kept seas aimed at Hawaii near 20-25 feet in an area about 2000 nm away. Long period forerunners from this source are modelled to arrive locally on Wednesday 11/25 from 315-325 degrees. The event should peak on Thursday near the October to April, north shore, seasonal average from 320-340 degrees. It should drop below average on Friday. The next low pressure formed near the Kuril Islands on Tuesday 11/24. Rapidscat satellite validated hurricane-force winds aimed towards Hawaii in an area beyond 2500 nm away early Tuesday. Models show the center of low pressure tracking east along 45°N, which is further south than the previous systems. It is predicted to pass east of the dateline late Wednesday and into the gulf of Alaska late Friday. It should maintain severe gale to storm-force winds and make for a long-lived event locally with a veering trend in dominant wave direction. Long period forerunners are due Saturday, with surf climbing above average by late morning from 310-325 degrees. The event is predicted to peak in the wee hours Sunday as it holds above average through Sunday from 320-340 degrees. Mid Tuesday on eastern shores has small breakers from 50-70 degrees with 8-10 second periods. It was generated by trades well east of Hawaii last week. This event is declining. More northerly component windswell is expected to increase on Wednesday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for an explanation of the evolving local winds this period. For windswell, models indicate the upstream fetch to remain short, so the dominant wave period of the new trade windswell should stay low, thus, smaller breakers. The dominant windswell direction should veer from more northerly Wednesday around to ENE by Friday. A new trade wind event is predicted to maintain fresh trades over the weekend with continued NE to ENE windswell leaning to the lower side of the windswell period band. Some lower, longer-period windswell from 30-40 degrees is expected to add to the mix on Thursday into Friday. The source is an area of strong to near gale easterly breezes north of 35°N between 135-145°W 11/23-24. Mid Tuesday on southern shores has mostly flat conditions with tiny to small breakers at a few spots. Similar surf is likely for Wednesday. Austral summer is approaching downunder with surface low pressures getting weaker in the mid latitude zones around New Zealand. Severe gales in the Tasman sea 11/21-23 have low odds of making small breakers locally Saturday into Sunday from 208-220 degrees. Into the long range, typical early December near flat conditions are expected for southern shores 11/30-12/4. In the northern hemisphere, surf should trend down below average 11/30 into 12/1 from 330-350 degrees. A new low pressure is modelled to form near Hokkaido, Japan 11/27 and reach the dateline 11/29. This should build the surf locally 12/2 from 305-320 degrees to around the seasonal average. More fresh trade wind events locally are modelled to come and go with about a 3-4 day cycle between peak speeds this week through next week, keeping top days of breakers from 30-90 degrees near the trade windswell average. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, November 27. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to email@example.com or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Table Legend
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL