PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH FACING SHORES HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST FACING SHORES

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 20 to 25 feet today, lowering to 14 to 18 feet Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be 14 to 18 feet today, lowering to 10 to 14 feet Friday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Friday. Surf along south facing shores will 2 to 3 feet with locally higher sets through Friday.

Outlook

Outlook through Thursday January 26: the current northwest swell is expected to peak today, then lower gradually Saturday and Saturday night. Another large northwest swell is expected to arrive Monday night and Tuesday, then linger into Wednesday. A short period north northeast swell is expected on Saturday and Sunday. Strengthening trade winds will also cause for a significant increase in surf along east facing shores Sunday through Tuesday. There will also be a series of small southerly swells throughout the forecast period. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
01/17
4WNW1157DOWN7-10EUP
4E712SAME
WED
01/18
10NW182228UPMED17-21EUP
6E724UPLOW
THU
01/19
9NW161822DOWNMED13-19EDOWN
6E835DOWNLOW
FRI
01/20
7NW161216UPLOW4-6VRBSAME
4E824DOWNLOW
SAT
01/21
5NNW13810DOWNLOW22-27NNEUP
12N111216UPLOW
1SW1813UPLOW
SUN
01/22
12NE8810SAMELOW22-27ESAME
1SW1713SAMELOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Overlapping, above average events for . Detailed: Mid Monday on has breakers from 290-320 degrees below the active season, September to may, average. Surf should slowly trend down into Wednesday morning then rebound upward above average Wednesday afternoon. The jet stream has favored the common January track across the north Pacific from near Japan to longitudes of Hawaii. This has returned the dominant swell direction in Hawaii from WNW to NW as typical of mid winter. A few more episodes are lined up to overlap the recent WNW to NW pattern locally of 1/13-17. A low pressure gained gale status east of Japan on 1/14. The fetch over the 280-305 degree band had seas within 20-25 feet nosing up to near 1200 nm away by mid Monday. This more westerly component swell should fill in late Wednesday, peak Thursday at levels near to below average, then receive a reinforcement from the same direction Friday. Higher surf from 305-325 degrees is expected to overlap the WNW surf late Wednesday to Friday. As the low pressure approached the dateline Sunday 1/15, an area of storm-force winds set up over the 305-320 degree band. The low pressure tracked ENE with the head of the fetch continually aiming less and less at Hawaii as the flow turned more west to east south of the low pressure. Seas grew on Monday into Tuesday around 35 feet over a large area aimed NE of Hawaii. This makes for larger error bars for the local surf estimate. There is also a difference in Wave Watch III model output near Hawaii between the input winds from the GFS and european models. The ascat validation suggests the european model would be correct, which would be lower and slower than the GFS. The table above reflects the GFS even though odds are lower, in respect of erring towards safety. Proximity should allow the 305-325 degree surf to build rapidly Wednesday afternoon. Using GFS input to ww3 Waimea output, by Wednesday late afternoon, surf should reach extra-large levels, meaning breakers on outer reefs. This event is predicted to peak overnight Wednesday night. Heights should remain above average though drop below extra-large on Thursday. A new low pressure formed off Japan on Monday and is tracking rapidly east. It is adding seas over the 280-305 degree band while west of 170°E. More below average w-component swell from this source should fill in Friday and drop Saturday. This low pressure is modelled to cross the dateline Tuesday evening and race to the gulf of Alaska Wednesday night. A short- duration of gales over the 305-325 degree band should bring a reinforcement locally by Friday to levels near to above average. It should peak mid Friday and drop below average on Saturday as a new event arrives. Models show a strong surface high pressure near the dateline at 35°N on Friday 1/20 building eastward as a short-wave jet stream trough amplifies NNW of Hawaii and sets up a front. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the timing and trends of the local winds and weather associated with the front. The pressure gradient between the strong high pressure cell and the front is expected to set up a large fetch of strong to near gale winds NNW to NNE of Hawaii over the 350-020 degree band nosing into Hawaii Saturday. The windswell should ramp up rapidly Saturday. Stay tuned for timing of arrival. Gfs suggest Saturday afternoon as of noon Tuesday 1/17. Rough conditions should continue into Sunday as the dominant direction of the windswell veers on the compass. Mid Monday on has breakers at levels below the trade windswell average. An increase is predicted for Wednesday. Fresh trades over and E to ENE of Oahu 1/18 are expected to be short-lived with a downward trend 1/19. Breakers from windswell should trend up to a maximum early Thursday then fall towards Saturday. The rough N windswell for Saturday should refract and diffract into select eastern exposures. By Sunday, the local wind is expected to veer into NE to E with the windswell filling the N to E quadrant with rough, above average conditions. Mid Monday on has minimal surf from the southern hemisphere. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday. A broad area of storm-force winds in the southern Tasman sea 1/14 should make for a low, long-period event locally building mid Saturday 1/21, peaking Sunday 1/22 and dropping off Monday 1/23 from 208-220 degrees. Select westerly exposures this week should see some surf from the low pressure systems while between Japan and the dateline as described above. Into the long range, swell from the southern hemisphere is expected to return to winter near nil levels though models hint there still could be a few short-lived, low SW to SSW events within the next few weeks. In the northern hemisphere, models show a winter-caliber low pressure tracking from near Japan 1/20 to the dateline south of the Aleutians 1/21. The broad low below 960 mb is predicted to pass well north of Hawaii 1/23. This should bring a wide directional band from 280-350 degrees next week, though dominant from 305-325 degrees. It should build 1/22 and peak 1/23 extra- large. The trade windswell is expected to remain above average 1/23 from 50-90 degrees with a downward trend 1/24. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Thursday, January 19. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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