No high surf advisory or warnings.
Surf along north facing shores will be 6 to 9 feet today and 5 to 8 feet Sunday. Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today and 2 to 4 feet Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Sunday. Surf along south facing shores will be 4 to 7 feet today and 3 to 6 feet Sunday.
Outlook through Saturday October 17: a small but very long period south swell will traverse the area tonight through Sunday. A moderate north-northwest swell is expected to peak today followed by a gradual decline Sunday night through Tuesday. A reinforcing north-northwest swell will come in Tuesday night and linger through midweek but will have a much shorter period associated with it. A swell from the north is slated to arrive late in the forecast period that will take the surf to near advisory level for the north facing shores. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Active pattern from northern and southern hemisphere. Detailed: Mid Friday on northern shores has breakers below the October average from 350-020 degrees with 8-10 second intervals. This event should drop into Saturday morning. A new episode is due mid Saturday. A broad area of surface low pressures has filled the NE Pacific since 10/8. Marginal gales followed a se-pushing front 10/8-9 north of Hawaii. A fetch over the 330-350 degree band nosed to near 1000 nm away mid Thursday. The system intensified as it moved east of the Hawaii swell window 10/9. Moderate period swell of 12-14 seconds is predicted to build locally mid Saturday from 330-350 degrees. It should reach near the October average in the late afternoon. It will likely peak overnight Saturday, then slowly drop Sunday into Monday. Models show a new low pressure forming 10/9 at 40°N on the dateline. It is modelled to track rapidly east with a fetch of marginal gales about 1200-1600 nm away Saturday into Sunday. This should give a similar or smaller event building Tuesday from 330-350 degrees. By Tuesday, a front is modelled to cross Oahu backed by northerly moderate breezes. This would make for choppy breakers Tuesday into Wednesday with the near average swell. Typhoon Choi-Wan in the western Pacific changed its westerly track to more NNW 10/6-7. Low W swell from the 10/4-6 stage is predicted locally starting Saturday night and holding into Monday from 270-280 degrees. The final life cylce of Choi-Wan near the southern Kuril Islands 10/7-8 had severe gales to storm-force winds over the 300-315 degree band beyond 2500 nm away. Low swell from this stage of Choi-Wan is due to arrive locally Monday afternoon from 300-315 degrees. It should peak on Tuesday at levels below the October average. Mid Friday on eastern shores has small breakers for N to NE facing exposures. Heights should lower on Saturday from N to NE, though late in the day, refraction of the NNW event should affect select northerly breaker zones. The axis of surface high pressure is immediately north of the island chain. A calm area of seas nearby to the ENE to NE of Hawaii should keep surf from 40-90 degrees near nil through the weekend. See the NWS state forecast discussion regarding a small scale tropical feature that could back the local winds more northeasterly on Sunday. A small, short-lived increase in seas from 40-70 degrees is expected to rise Sunday and drop Monday, but with the short fetch, the wave periods should be in the chop band, with minimal breakers. Mid Friday on southern shores has slowly declining surf from 175-185 degrees at heights a notch above the seasonal average. A new event from 190-220 degrees is building. A series of winter-caliber low pressure systems have been closely packed in time and space for the longitudes from Tasmania to E of New Zealand 9/26 to the present. Models show continued abundant cyclonic activity in this region into the long range. It is making for a more active than normal southerly swell pattern in Hawaii for October. A pair of low pressures in the Tasman 10/1-2 had seas to 30 and 40 feet, respectively. The second stronger low maintained strength as it entered the Hawaii swell window to the SE of New Zealand 10/3. A large area of seas with 30-45 feet occurred in the Tasman and SE of New Zealand. The system weakened as it moved east along 60s to the SE of New Zealand 10/4-5. For all its life cycle, seas have mostly aimed west to east. Wave models have kept the magnitude low for output points from pago pago, Christmas island, and Hawaii from these sources. Validation from buoys suggests the model is under estimating this event. Southern NOAA buoys 51003, 51002, and 51004 10/9 showed significant wave energy in the extra long wave period band of 19-23 seconds starting pre-dawn. The west to east spread of the buoys shows the energy higher towards the east, reflecting the primary swell swath missing the islands to the SE. The makes the confidence lower for the Oahu surf estimate. The magnitude of the extra long wave period energy is high enough to allow breakers above the seasonal average. With the close spacing of the sources, the arrival of the swell trains should be nearly simultaneous, allowing a wide swath from 180-220 degrees. Surf from this direction should build Friday afternoon 10/9, peak Saturday, and slowly drop into Monday. The following low pressure systems in the Tasman sea and SE of New Zealand 10/4-7 were weaker, but could be enough to keep surf near the seasonal average locally Monday to Wednesday 10/12-14 locally. Into the long range, a stronger low pressure with seas 30-40 feet is nosing into the Hawaii swell window SE of New Zealand 10/9. It is modelled to scurry eastward with follow up low cells of similar strength. This suggests near to a notch above average surf for the weekend 10/16-18 from 180-200 degrees and into the following week. In the northern hemisphere, a nearly zonal jet from the Kuril Islands eastward to the NE Pacific 10/11-14 suggests small surf below the October average from NW to N 10/15-17. Tropical depression 18-e located near 10°N, 133°W 10/9 is in the Big Island shadow. Models suggest minimal surf for Oahu 10/15-16. Stay tuned for updates given the elusive behavior of tropical systems. Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty. This collaborative forecast will resume on Tuesday, October 13. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to firstname.lastname@example.org or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Table Legend
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL