Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Monday March 9: a north-northwest swell will continue to lower through today and Wednesday. A small northwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday night and continue through the end of the work week. A moderate fresh swell from the northeast may rise to advisory levels for east facing shores Friday into the weekend. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet today, decreasing to 4 to 6 feet Wednesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today, decreasing to 2 to 4 feet Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Wednesday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: calendar says winter but surf trending to spring. Detailed: mid Monday on northern shores has breakers above the seasonal average from 320-350 degrees at 12-15 second intervals. Heights should be below average on Tuesday. A compacted low pressure deepened Friday 2/27 near 40°N, 175°W. It took a SE track into Saturday with a captured fetch of gales to severe gales nosing seas over 20 feet near 1000 nm away. It steadily weakened as the low cell remained stationary late Saturday into early Monday. Noaa buoy 51101, 270 nm WNW of Oahu, showed a sharp rise late Sunday afternoon 3/1 and a sharp fall on Monday morning 3/2. The pacioos/cdip Waimea buoy showed the peak of the episode near sunrise on Oahu 3/2. Surf should remain above average Monday, with a fast decline overnight, dropping below average by Tuesday from the same direction. A low pressure gained storm-force near Hokkaido, Japan 2/26-27 with a NNE track. During the early stages, the fetch was too short. Wave watch iii gives low, long-period surf from 310 degrees arriving Tuesday, making for low odds of tiny to small breakers. The low pressure off the Kuril Islands changed track to the east on 2/27-28 as the winds weakened to gales over the 310-320 degree band, reaching near 2000 nm away. The long travel distance reduces surf potential. Below average breakers are expected to slowly rise Wednesday, peak Wednesday night, then slowly drop on Thursday. The low pressure trough continued to push east of the dateline 3/1 and is modelled to move east of the longitude of Hawaii north of 40°N 3/3. Fresh to strong breezes, with pockets to marginal gales, are affecting the 320-360 degree band. Shorter-period energy of 10-13 seconds from this source is expected to add small breakers for Thursday into Friday. It should fade out by Saturday. Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers near the trade windswell average from a mix of directions. The long-lived, short-period energy from 70-90 degrees has decreased while short-period energy from 000-030 builds. The table above shows nominally NE wave direction this week, though it should be spread within 000-090 degrees. Heights should stay about the same on Tuesday. A weak surface trough with a north-south axis within the eastern end of the island chain 3/1-3 is the reason for the mix of windswell directions. West of the axis has N to NE winds and east of the axis has E winds. Ascat satellite showed fresh to strong breezes on either side of the trough, that should keep surf near the trade windswell average Tuesday into Wednesday from the wide spread of 000-090 degrees. Models suggest an upward trend to the Oahu NE trades Wednesday into Thursday, with surf from windswell trending above average by Thursday afternoon. Heights should remain above average into the weekend from 20-60 degrees. Stay tuned for updates with low confidence in specifics of the nearby weather pattern driving the windswell. Mid Monday on southern shores has inconsistent, small, long-period breakers from 160-170 degrees. Similar surf is predicted for Tuesday. A broad low pressure SE of Easter Island 2/22-25 had a slow ENE track. Primary swell was aimed at the Americas. Angular spreading is delivering low energy to Hawaii. This event should hold into Wednesday, then decline toward nil by Friday. Exposures to easterly windswell on the south shore should remain active through the week. Into the long range, models show a blocking ridge for the western to central N Pacific, keeping WNW to NW swell tiny to small 3/8-10. Models place jet level troughs and cut-off eddies to the NNE of Hawaii. This suggests short- to moderate-period, N to NNE surf locally 3/8-10, with peak days near the seasonal average. Dominant windswell should be within 00-60 degrees 3/8-10. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, March 4. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
03/02
8NNW131216DOWN11-16NESAME
6NE724SAME
1SSE1824UP
TUE
03/03
4NNW1268DOWNMED11-16NESAME
6NE724SAMEMED
2SSE1624SAMELOW
WED
03/04
3NW1546UPLOW13-19NEUP
3N1035DOWNLOW
7NE734UPLOW
2SSE1424DOWNLOW
THU
03/05
3NW1346DOWNLOW17-21NEUP
8NE846UPLOW
2SSE1223DOWNLOW
FRI
03/06
3NNW1235SAMELOW17-21NESAME
9NE868UPLOW
SAT
03/07
9NE868SAMELOW17-21NNESAME
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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