No high surf advisory or warnings.
Surf along north facing shores will be 4 to 7 feet today and 2 to 4 feet Saturday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today and 1 to 3 feet Saturday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 5 to 7 feet today and 5 to 8 feet Saturday. A high surf advisory is likely for the weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet today then 2 to 3 feet Saturday.
Outlook through Friday October 28: strong gusty trade winds will bump up the choppy short period trade wind swell over the weekend that may warrant a high surf advisory for the east facing shores. The current subsiding northwest swell will be replaced by similar size swell from the north over the weekend. Then, a new but small northwest swell is slated to be reach our north and west shores on Tuesday. There will be a couple of small but long period swells from the south reaching our southern shores on Saturday, and another one Sunday night and Monday of next week.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
Collaborative Surf Table
Collaborative Surf Table Legend
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Mix of swell.
Detailed: Mid Wednesday on has small breakers from 170-190 degrees at levels below the active season, March to October, average. Similar surf is possible for Thursday.
A gale low east of the north island of New Zealand 10/11-13 tracked steadily east and aimed highest seas SE of Hawaii. The pacioos/cdip Lanai and Oahu south shore buoys show low energy in the 10-14 second bands. This event should be short-lived.
Another gale low pattern formed 10/17 at about the same location and same track through 10/19. This low was a notch stronger. It should give a slightly larger episode locally picking up late 10/23 and peaking 10/24 from 170-190 degrees.
Mid Wednesday on has breakers below the trade windswell average. An increase is predicted for Thursday.
See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the patterns dictating the local winds and weather.
A long, wide fetch of fresh to strong trades to the E to NE of Hawaii out 800 nm is modelled to set up starting Thursday. This should trend up the dominant wave period of the windswell, which in turn allows higher breakers.
Rough conditions with the locally fresh to strong winds are expected with the local wind maximum Friday through Saturday.
Breakers from windswell should climb to near the average by late Thursday, then hold above average through the weekend into early next week from 60-90 degrees.
Mid Wednesday on has seasonally minimal surf. An increase is due on Thursday.
A gale low pressure reached its maximum strength near 45°N, 165°E on Sunday with seas growing above 20 feet. The fairly compact fetch was about 2000 nm away. Moderate period swell of 14-16 second from this source should fill in on Thursday, with a slow rise through the day. The event should peak Thursday night at levels below the October average from 310-320 degrees.
The low pressure continued an eastward track near 45-50°N 10/16, crossing the dateline early 10/17, and east of the longitude of Hawaii by 10/18. Marginal gales nosed to near 1000 nm away late Monday. Surf from 320-345 degrees is expected to pick up locally late Thursday and peak on Friday at levels below the October average. This event should drop on Saturday.
The low described above has merged into a broad area of low pressure that has been filling the gulf of Alaska 10/16-19. A new center gained strength near Kodiak, Alaska early 10/19. Models show gales aimed at targets E of Hawaii. Angular spreading could give a small rise to surf locally on Sunday out of 350-020 degrees. It should be short-lived.
Into the long range, models show a storm-force system with central pressure dropping near 970 mb east of the Kuril Islands 10/20-22. The system is modelled to turn north near 170°E, keeping the fetch beyond 2000 nm from Hawaii. It should bring a long- period swell locally filling in Monday night and peaking late Tuesday 10/25 from 300-315 degrees at levels near to above the October average.
Southern exposures should have small breakers from 170-190 degrees 10/23-25, then fall towards tiny levels later in the week.
There is a mix in models for local easterly-component windswell next week. In general, energy from 60-90 degrees is expected to decrease 10/25-27, though energy from 20-60 degrees could increase.
Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, October 21.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to firstname.lastname@example.org or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL