No high surf advisory or warnings.
Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today. Rising to 3 to 5 feet Tuesday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Tuesday.
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Tuesday.
Outlook through Monday September 05: surf along east facing shores will become much higher as swells from hurricane madeline build starting Tuesday night. More large east swells from hurricane Lester are expected later in the week. A small west swell generated by typhoons in the west Pacific is possible for the second half of the week. No other significant swells are expected.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
Collaborative Surf Table
Collaborative Surf Table Legend
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Summer low mode.
Detailed: Mid Friday on southern exposures has breakers on the low side of average from 160-190 degrees for most spots and near average for SE exposures. Heights are expected to lower on Saturday.
Two sources in the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere are giving the SSE event locally. A low pressure SW of Easter Island tracked SE as it gained storm-force 8/17-18. This is adding the swell energy from 160-170 degrees. Another low pressure due south of Hawaii within 40-60s 8/17 tracked east as it intensified, aiming highest seas at the Americas. Angular spreading is giving the swell energy locally within 170-190 degrees. Both should decline Saturday.
Otherwise, there are no sources identified to bring surf beyond near flat to background level heights locally Sunday to Wednesday from the southern hemisphere.
Mid Friday on northern exposures has near flat conditions. Similar surf is expected on Saturday with a mild trend up late in the day.
Fresh to strong winds on the west side of a mid latitude low about 1600 nm to the NNW of Hawaii 8/22-23 is expected to give a bump from 330-345 degrees. This short-period event should pick up locally near sundown Saturday with tiny breakers through Sunday. It should be short-lived.
Mid Friday on eastern exposures has breakers well below the windswell average from 60-90 degrees. A slight increase is possible for Saturday.
See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the subtle ups and downs to the local trades over the weekend into early next week.
Trades over and immediately E to NE of Hawaii within 600 nm are expected to hover within moderate to fresh speeds and bring breakers a notch under the trade windswell average Saturday to Tuesday from within 60-90 degrees.
Well beyond 1000 nm to the NE of Hawaii 8/25-27, strong breezes on the SE flank of the NE Pacific high pressure system is predicted to give a NE windswell with 8-11 second periods from 30-60 degrees building Monday night and fading Wednesday. Heights could approach the trade windswell average for direct NE exposures.
Tropical cyclonic activity within latitudes of Hawaii eastward to 140°W mid next week are expected to build surf locally Wednesday. The elusive nature of tropical cyclone prediction, and even more complications given two systems in the model packages runs 8/24-26, lead to a general statement for surf to be above average starting Wednesday from within 70-100 degrees.
Into the long range, rough, above average, tropical cyclone surf from within 60-100 degrees is expected within 9/1-3. It is too early for specifics.
Typhoon lionrock S to SE of Japan is slowly tracking NE 8/25-26. It is expected to generate low, long-period swell centered from 280 degrees filling in locally 9/2. Shadowing by Niihau and Kauai limit surf potential on westerly exposures of Oahu.
Models show a 952 mb low pressure SE of New Zealand 8/28-29 with a steady eastward track along 60s latitude. The strength and size of the system would likely bring average to above average surf locally starting late 9/4, peaking late 9/5 to mid 9/6, and holding a few days from 180-200 digress.
Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, August 29.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to email@example.com or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL