Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Sunday October 26: a new small northwest swell is expected to arrive Thursday and continue through Friday. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 10 to 15 feet today, lowering to 7 to 10 feet Tuesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 6 to 9 feet today, lowering to 5 to 7 feet Tuesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 3 to 6 feet today, lowering to 2 to 4 feet tonight and Tuesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Tuesday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: north shores trending down. Detailed: mid Monday on northern shores has surf above the October average from 330-350 degrees. It is predicted to drop to near the average on Tuesday from 340-010 degrees. The remnant of typhoon Vongfong was absorbed into a mid latitude low pressure system off the Kuril Islands on 10/12. A storm-force system tracked east just south of the Aleutians, with the head of the fetch over the 320-330 degree band reaching the dateline by early Thursday 10/16. It nosed to about 1000 nm away from Hawaii on 10/17 over the 330-350 degree band. This is the source for the above average surf of 10/19-20. Surf from 330-350 degrees should drop to near average levels on Tuesday. The low pressure continued to track east 10/17-18. A long.wide fetch of gales hugged the central to eastern Aleutians aimed at targets NE of Hawaii. This should add surf on Tuesday from 350-010 degrees through angular spreading. Heights should fall below average by Wednesday from 350-010 degrees. A zonal jet stream set up along the western to central Aleutians on 10/17. A compact marginal gale tracked from near Kamchatka 10/18.reaching the dateline by early on 10/20.as it hugged the Aleutians. Seas were aimed more west to east, not so much at Hawaii. Angular spreading should give a low pulse locally picking up on Thursday and holding into Friday from 320-340 degrees. This low pressure is moving into the gulf of Alaska 10/20-21. It could keep low, shorter-period surf from 340-360 degrees on Saturday. Tropical system Ana is modelled to track NW into Friday then change course towards the NE over the weekend. The quadrant aimed at Hawaii is the weakest and fetch limited given the track. Thus.only low.shorter-period swell are predicted for late Friday into the weekend from within 290-315 degrees. Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers from 60-90 degrees near the trade windswell average. Heights should trend down on Tuesday. Northerly exposures have higher waves and should trend down into Wednesday. Weakening trades near and well to the E to NE of Oahu should coincide with dropping breakers from windswell by Wednesday. It should remain below average from 45-90 degrees into Saturday. Mid Monday on southern shores has near nil breakers from a mix of windswell. Low conditions should hold on Tuesday. No sources in the southern hemisphere 10/13-18 were identified to suggest surf beyond negligible levels this period. Into the long range, gales well SE of New Zealand 10/20-21 could bring surf up a notch mid next week 10/29 from 180-200 degrees, at levels more than the winter nil but less than the summer average. Models suggest another system SE of New Zealand 10/24-25 that could have similar surf locally around 11/1. In the northern hemisphere, angular spreading from gales in the gulf of Alaska 10/22-24 could make below average surf from 000-020 degrees 10/26-28. The remnant of Ana will be monitored for addition NNW to NNE surf. Surf from sources in the W to NW Pacific are expected to be near nil 10/26-28. Local windswell is expected to remain below average 10/26-28. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, October 22. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
10/20
7NNW131216DOWN13-19ENESAME
6ENE824SAME
TUE
10/21
6N12812DOWNMED9-13EDOWN
5ENE723DOWNMED
WED
10/22
4N1168DOWNLOW7-10EDOWN
4ENE712DOWNLOW
THU
10/23
2NW1424UPLOW7-10ESAME
FRI
10/24
3NNW1246SAMELOW7-10ESAME
SAT
10/25
3WNW1146UPLOW7-10ESAME
3N1046DOWNLOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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