PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Wednesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Wednesday.

Outlook

Outlook through Tuesday October 04: the small north-northwest swell will gradually ease into Thursday. Another small northwest swell is forecast to arrive at the end of the period. Choppy short-period surf will continue along east facing shores through the week and may slightly increase over the upcoming weekend due to strengthening trade winds. Background small south swells will provide small surf for the south facing shores through the period. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
09/26
2NNW913UP17-21ENEUP
6ENE623UP
TUE
09/27
4N935SAMELOW13-19ENEDOWN
6ENE724SAMELOW
WED
09/28
4NNE935DOWNLOW13-19ESAME
6ENE724SAMELOW
THU
09/29
7ENE734UPLOW17-21EUP
FRI
09/30
7E835UPLOW17-21ESAME
SAT
10/01
8E846UPLOW17-21ESAME

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Short-period surf from N to E. Detailed: Mid Monday on northern shores has minimal surf for the early fall season at levels below the September average. An increase is expected Monday afternoon. A summery pattern has held over the past week in the north Pacific with the jet stream far north and more zonal. This has led to a below average surf pattern locally 9/19-26. The below average pattern is expected to hold into next week. Surface high pressure tracked east from west of the dateline along 40°N 9/24 to a position near 165°W by 9/26. Fresh to strong breezes on the north side of a shearline north of 30°N NW to NNE of Hawaii set up over the 340-360 degree band 9/25 and 000-020 degree band 9/26. The head of the fetch was about 500 nm away 9/26. Proximity should allow small, short- period surf 9/26-28. Nw Hawaii buoy 51101 measured a rise in short-period, NNW to N swell Monday morning. The pacioos/cdip buoy off Waimea bay, Oahu had an upward trend mid day 9/26. The small event should be filled in Monday night and hold about the same into Wednesday as the dominant direction veers from 350 degrees late 9/26 to 020 degrees by 9/28. A weak low pressure cell west of the dateline 9/25-26 had fresh to strong breezes in an area about 1800 nm away. Wave model output suggests the source too weak and too far away to bring surf beyond tiny locally, which if it does fill in, would be Friday from 310-320 degrees. Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers below the trade windswell average. Heights are trending up. A new surface high pressure cell is predicted to become established NE of Hawaii by 9/27 and hold through the week. Moderate to fresh trades over Oahu Tuesday to Wednesday should keep surf a notch below the trade windswell average. For Thursday into the weekend, some models are suggesting an increase in local and upstream trades, that would trend the surf up. There is some disagreement between the models. Stay tuned for the latest forecast. Mid Monday on southern shores has below average southerly swell. Low conditions are expected to continue on Tuesday. Surface high pressure dominated the region over and S to SE of New Zealand 9/19-26. Surface low pressures have favored the mid latitudes to the east of the Hawaii swell window and south of Australia. Wave models keep low swell near 1 foot with long wave periods of 14-18 seconds through this week from the Tasman, 208-220 degrees and French Polynesia, 140-170 degrees. Heights are expected to remain below the active season, March to October, average through the period with subtle ups and downs, the basic background pattern. Into the long range, an unfavorable southerly surf pattern is expected to hold from the mid latitude source region in the southern hemisphere with below average breakers 10/2-4. In the northern hemisphere, a marginal gale is predicted near the dateline at 50°N on 9/30 that could make for a small NW to NNW event roughly 10/4-5. Tropical activity in the eastern north Pacific will be monitored for surf potential. In particular, the newly formed system near 140°W on 9/26, tropical depression 19°E, will be closely watched. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, September 28. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTERS AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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