PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today and 4 to 6 feet Saturday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet today and 3 to 5 feet Saturday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 6 feet through Saturday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Saturday.

Outlook

Outlook through Friday May 06: a northwest swell is slated to arrive this morning. It will peak tonight follow by a gradual decline Saturday. Another northwest swell of equal size is due in Saturday night. It will start diminishing Sunday night. Wednesday of next week may have another northwest swell of similar size but with a longer period. Surf will remain small along south facing beaches during the period except for a small bump between today and Monday, and on Thursday of next week. A small swell from the north is expected Monday of next week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
04/27
2NW1134SAME13-19EUP
6E734UP
THU
04/28
2NNW1134SAMELOW13-19EDOWN
7E735UPLOW
FRI
04/29
2WNW1334UPLOW11-16EDOWN
5E834DOWNLOW
SAT
04/30
3NW1246UPLOW11-16ESAME
5E724DOWNLOW
SUN
05/01
3NNW1246SAMELOW13-19ENEUP
6ENE734UPLOW
2SSW1735UPLOW
MON
05/02
2NNW1024DOWNLOW13-19ESAME
7ENE734SAMELOW
3SSW1446SAMELOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Small surf from around the compass. Detailed: Mid Wednesday on northern shores has small, short-period breakers from 315-330 degrees. Similar surf is likely for Thursday. A broad area of strong to near gale breezes beyond 1200 nm away 4/23-25 had seas near 12 feet. This episode arrived later and lower 4/26-27 than modelled by the Wave Watch III model. The small breakers from 315-330 degrees should drop on Thursday, with a mild secondary pulse. The broad low pressure of 4/23-24 deepened just south of the Aleutians north of Hawaii 4/25-26. Gales aimed seas west to east. Angular spreading could add small surf locally Thursday 4/28 from 330-360 degrees. A weak low pressure formed near 40°N, 160°E on 4/25 and tracked steadily east reaching the dateline 4/26. Small pockets to gales 4/25 beyond 2000 nm has low odds to bring up small breakers locally Friday late afternoon from 305-315 degrees. The winds were mostly in the strong bracket 4/25-27, nosing to about 1400 nm away 4/27 for the portion aimed at Hawaii over the 310-330 degree band. Small, short-period breakers from this source are expected for Saturday. Models show a new compact low pressure forming near 35°N, 175°W Thursday morning, with a fast NE track to the Aleutians by late Friday. Marginal gales with a duration-limited fetch should keep small breakers locally on Sunday from 320-350 degrees. It should be short-lived. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers near the trade windswell average from 60-90 degrees. A slight increase is predicted for Thursday. Surface high pressure of 1028 mb near 30°N, 145°W has a ridge axis extending westward to the north of Hawaii. Winds are strongest to fresh levels south of the high center east of Hawaii. Local breezes are expected to be at a maximum 4/27-28. Local windswell should reach a maximum on 4/28, then drop back to near average levels going into the weekend. A new surface high pressure building north of Hawaii Sunday is expected to trend local trades and windswell up Sunday into Monday, 5/1-2, from within 50-90 degrees. Mid Wednesday on southern shores has background low swell conditions with most spots near flat and a few spots with inconsistent small breakers from within 170-220 degrees. More of the same is expected for Thursday into Saturday. A low pressure deepened to 953 mb SE of New Zealand 4/25. An associated front backed by severe gales pushed to near 40s just east of southern New Zealand 4/24-25. A compact area of seas grew to 25-30 feet, with a broader area of 20-25 feet. The system slowly moved east 4/26-27 as it weakened. The aim was highest slightly east of Hawaii. Wave watch iii shows 4 feet at 15 seconds 4/28 near american samoa while further east near Tahiti, it predicts 7 feet at 15 seconds 4/29. Long-period forerunners are due locally on Sunday 5/1, with a slow rise of the inconsistent breakers. The event should peak on Monday 5/2 at levels near to a notch above the seasonal south swell average from 180-200 degrees. Into the long range, the south swell should slowly trend down 5/3-5 to background levels. Hints of the next south swell locally around 5/7-9. It is too early for specifics on size. In the northern hemisphere, a low pressure is modelled to occlude near the southern Kuril Islands 4/28-29 as it tracks NNE. A short fetch of severe gales to storm force winds beyond 2700 nm away could have low, long-period swell locally 5/4 from 295-305 degrees. The low pressure is predicted to weaken as it tracks east 4/30-5/3. This portion could make for small breakers locally 5/5-7 from 310-325 degrees. Breakers from trade windswell should be near the average 5/3-5. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, April 29. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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