Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Monday September 7: the swell from hurricane Ignacio will gradually subside but become more northerly over the next couple of days. A new long period swell from hurricane Jimena will keep surf elevated through Monday along east facing shores. There will be a series of small southerly swells through Friday, with a larger south swell expected over the weekend and into early next week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
HIGH SURF WARNING FOR EAST FACING SHORES
Forecast
Surf along east facing shores will be 10 to 15 feet through Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet overnight, rising to 3 to 5 feet Wednesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet overnight, rising to 2 to 4 feet Wednesday. Surf along north facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet overnight.rising to 9 to 12 feet Wednesday.
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BURKE
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Trio of tropical cyclones and active southern hemisphere pattern to make for an abundance of above average surf from around the compass. Detailed: Mid Monday on eastern shores has rising breakers from a mix of sources. A sharp rise is expected overnight. A short-period, small event from 000-020 degrees with 8-12 second periods is holding on Monday and is expected to fade on Tuesday for select N exposures of the eastern side. It was generated by a low pressure west of oregon and high pressure near the central Aleutians 8/25-26. Short-period surf from 40-90 degrees with 6-8 second periods is picking up Monday 8/31 from the nearby fresh trades. Surf from Ignacio is imminent. See the latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center, CPHC, for status and forecasts of tropical system Ignacio. Hurricane Ignacio has been in the Oahu shadow caused by the eastern-most Hawaii islands until late Sunday. It is steadily filling into the Oahu swell window 8/31, and with the proximity, will be steeply raising the surf Monday night into Tuesday. The late morning 8/31 pacioos/cdip buoy off NE Maui shows a sharp rise in the 12-16 second wave period energy from 105 degrees. Since the mokapu Oahu shadow line is near 104 degrees, this means the onset of the longer period swell for Oahu will result in much larger breakers further north along the east side. The full east coast should see a sharp ramp up overnight into Tuesday 9/1 with rough conditions caused by the longer-period swell from within 40-90 degrees and shorter-period swell from 20-90 degrees, though dominant 20-40 degrees. High tides coincide with the greatest landward reach of wave wash. Above average conditions are expected for the early morning and afternoon tidal peaks into the morning 9/2 from influence of Ignacio. The dominant surf from Ignacio is expected to veer N into Wednesday and will be discussed below for the north shore discussion. A new E above average swell is due late Tuesday from eastern tropical Pacific hurricane Jimena. See the latest National Hurricane Center for the latest products on hurricane Jimena. Jimena has been north of the Oahu shadow line from its genesis last week. It is modelled to track WNW over the next few days. The major hurricane status of winds greater than 110 knots since last Friday has allowed generation of long-period swell. Wave watch iii brings long-period swell to Oahu by Tuesday 9/1 in the afternoon. The event is expected to reach well above average by 9/2 and hold about the same into the weekend. During Tuesday through Thursday, the angle is closer to the shadow line, so higher surf is expected for the more northerly locations of the east side. It is modelled to slowly gain more E to ENE component Thursday into the weekend, allowing similar magnitude of swell all along the coast. High tides should continue to see above average coastal wave wash for easterly exposures into the weekend. Mid Monday on northern shores has small breakers from the short-period N swell. Heights should become choppy with a steady rise on Tuesday from Ignacio. The more northerly components from Ignacio should rise the surf Tuesday afternoon and peak overnight to near sunrise Wednesday from 000-040 degrees. Based on the 11 am HST CPHC forecast track of Ignacio, the system accelerates to the NW Wednesday into Thursday. This would mean duration limited fetches for the NW to N swell aimed towards Oahu. Surf locally should steadily drop Wednesday into Thursday from 330-360 degrees, with small breakers from 320-345 degrees remaining Friday into Saturday. Mid Monday on westerly exposures has low breakers. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday. Hurricane Kilo strengthened over the weekend near the dateline with a slow track. It is modelled to move slowly to the NNW into mid week, then turn westward and track more quickly into the weekend. With the roughly 1200 nm distance, even though the weaker quadrant is aimed at Hawaii, some swell should be received. It is expected to pick up Wednesday and hold into the weekend at small levels from 270-280 degrees. Mid Monday on southern shores has small breakers. Similar surf from the south is expected on Tuesday though easterly exposures should see a ramp up from Ignacio. A marginal gale east of New Zealand 8/21-23 has moderate period surf from 180-190 degrees arriving on 8/31. This event should fade out on Tuesday. The austral winter entered an active mode S to SE of New Zealand to S of French Polynesia last week. A series of sources are expected to make overlapping episodes locally with an upward trend in size. The first system moved too fast and was strongest in the Tasman and New Zealand shadow 8/24-26. It weakened as it moved SE of New Zealand. Long-period surf from this source should start to fill in locally late Tuesday 9/1, and peak on Wednesday from 180-220 degrees near the summer average. On its heels SE of New Zealand, two deep low pressures spaced about a day apart set up a massive area of seas 30-40 feet within 160°E to 160°W and 55-65°S latitude 8/26-28. The seas aimed highest at the Americas. With such a broad girth, swell decay during travel is less. Even with angular spreading, surf is expected to climb above average locally. Extra-long wave periods of 20-25 seconds are due on Thursday with inconsistent breakers. The event should be filled in on Friday from 180-200 degrees, holding about the same on Saturday. Into the long range, a new low pressure formed SE of New Zealand 8/29. It was weaker than the former, but had a fetch aimed at Hawaii and tracked closer. Small pockets of severe gales and a wider area of gales nosed to near 4200 nm away by 8/31. This should keep the above average surf Sunday 9/6 from 180-195 degrees. It is likely to peak 9/7 from 175-190 degrees. In general, a more active New Zealand swell pattern is expected for the first half of September relative to the slow August spell. Above average E to NE swell from Jimena is suggested to be long-lived, 9/7-9. Each of the trio, Ignacio, Kilo, and Jimena are modelled to be long-lived and eventually becoming extratropical in the mid-latitudes, which poses another source of surf. It is too early for specifics other than hints of an above average first half of September for W, N, and E shores. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday September 2. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
08/31
4N935SAME11-16NESAME
5ENE834UP
2ESE1535UP
2S1324SAME
TUE
09/01
9NNE868SAMEHIGH11-16NSAME
8ENE131015UPHIGH
4ESE17610UPLOW
2W1224UPLOW
WED
09/02
8NNE11812DOWNLOW11-16SWSAME
6ESE171015UPMED
2SSW1746UPLOW
2W1224SAMELOW
THU
09/03
5NNW1057DOWNLOW7-10SDOWN
7E151015SAMEMED
2SSW2257UPLOW
2W1224SAMELOW
FRI
09/04
3NNW1035SAMELOW7-10SSAME
7E151015SAMELOW
3S2068UPLOW
2W1224SAMELOW
SAT
09/05
3NW1035DOWNLOW7-10SESAME
8E141015UPLOW
4S1668SAMELOW
2W1324SAMELOW
Disclaimer
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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