PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 10 to 15 ft through tonight, rising to 22 to 28 feet Tuesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 8 to 12 ft through tonight, rising to 15 to 20 ft Tuesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 4 to 7 feet through tonight, lowering to 1 to 3 feet Tuesday.

Outlook

Outlook through Monday February 13: warning-level surf associated with a large west-northwest swell is expected to continue along the exposed north and west facing shores Tuesday night through Wednesday. This swell will gradually ease Thursday and Thursday night. Another west-northwest swell will lead to advisory-level surf from late Friday through the weekend along north and west facing shores. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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GIBBS

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
02/21
3NNW1045DOWN19-23ENESAME
8ENE857SAME
WED
02/22
4WNW17610UPLOW19-23ENESAME
8ENE857SAMEMED
THU
02/23
6NW141012DOWNMED17-21NEDOWN
7ENE846DOWNLOW
FRI
02/24
4NNW1368DOWNLOW13-19NEDOWN
5WNW181012UPLOW
6ENE835DOWNLOW
SAT
02/25
7NW151216SAMELOW11-16ENEDOWN
5ENE824DOWNLOW
SUN
02/26
5NW14810DOWNLOW9-13EDOWN
3ENE813DOWNLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Long-period WNW and steady trade windswell. Detailed: Mid Tuesday on has breakers near a winter minimum from 330-020 degrees. An increase is predicted for Wednesday. Jet level ridging near the dateline has kept a pair of winter- caliber, surface low pressure systems to the west of the dateline. This should make for overlapping, long-period events from the WNW to NW. The first system deepened 2/19 near 40°N, 165°E with a NNE track. It reached the Aleutians west of the dateline 2/20. Long-period swell from this phase of the pattern is modelled to fill in slowly Wednesday morning from 305-315 degrees. It should peak early Thursday near the active season, September to may, average and drop into Friday from this direction. An associated front pushed east of the dateline 2/21 backed by fresh to near gale winds beyond 1000 nm away. Shorter-period swell of 10-13 seconds from 315-330 degrees should add to the short-period phase of the 305-315 degree energy, as the event lingers on Friday, when a new long-period event is expected. A second system formed east of Hokkaido, Japan 2/20. It tracked east for less than a day, and is turning north on 2/21 near 165°E. This system is stronger and broader than the first one with a wide fetch over the 280-310 degree band. Severe gales are modelled to reach the closest point of about 1800 nm from Hawaii early Wednesday. The main low pressure center is predicted to drop to 948 mb over the western Aleutians late Wednesday as wave energy is added over the 310-320 degree band. Long-period forerunners are due Friday morning from 280-310 degrees. The system should climb above average Friday afternoon. It should remain above average with a long-lived maximum Saturday from 280-320 degrees. It should drop below average on Sunday from the same direction. Mid Tuesday on has rough breakers at levels above the trade windswell average from 40-70 degrees. Similar surf is likely for Wednesday. Fresh to strong trade winds over Hawaii has a limited fetch length to the ENE, which is keeping the dominant wave period from growing much beyond 8 seconds. Models show a downward trend and a backing in direction of the local trades Thursday into the weekend. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for synoptic details. Breakers from windswell should trend down with the local wind. No surf from the southern hemisphere beyond tiny to small is expected through the period. Into the long range, the WNW to NW swell is predicted to linger into 2/27 as it drops to small levels. Otherwise, wave energy from WNW to NNW is expected to be below average 2/27-3/1. Models show a low pressure to the NE of Hawaii gaining gale status as it tracks toward California 2/25-27. This could send in a moderate-period NNE to NE swell 2/27-3/1. Easterly windswell should be near the average 2/27-3/1. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, February 24. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTERS AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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