Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Wednesday November 5: the advisory level surf for the east facing shores will continue into the weekend. Surf along the south facing shores will remain small through the weekend with a slight bump expected early next week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
Forecast
Surf along east facing shores will be 6 to 9 feet through Friday. Surf along north facing shores will be 6 to 10 feet through Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet tonight, lowering to 3 to 5 feet Friday. Surf along south facing shores will be 3 feet or less through Friday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: rough N to E surf. Detailed: mid Wednesday on northern shores has rising breakers from 330-360 degrees of 10-12 second intervals. Heights should steadily climb into Wednesday night from 350-020 degrees. Remote fetches from low pressure systems near the central Aleutians SE into the gulf of Alaska and closer fetches from surface high pressure are expected to create overlapping events of northerly component and short- to moderate-period swell, giving way to less orderly breakers. A broad area of low pressure tracked east along 45°N north of Hawaii 10/26-27. It had mostly near gales with a small area of marginal gales beyond 1500 nm away. Surf from this source is likely starting to rise mid Wednesday from 340-360 degrees with 12-14 second intervals. This event be short-lived, though a similar remote source is due on its heels late Thursday. Closer to Hawaii, strong breezes on the north side of a shearline associated with a eastward-moving large high pressure cell NNW of Hawaii started on 10/28 about 500 nm away, cutting that distance to near 200 nm away by mid Wednesday. The pacioos/cdip Waimea buoy shows an upward trend on 10/29 in the morning for the 10-12 second band from near 340 degrees. This is likely the start of the new short-period swell event. Heights should steadily increase Wednesday night into Thursday as the direction veers to 000-030 degrees. The short-period swell should slowly drop on Friday as it falls under the Kahuku shadow. A second remote source should keep northerly component swell on Friday into the weekend. A new low pressure tracked SE from the central Aleutians into the gulf of Alaska 10/27-29. It has gales over a wide, long fetch aimed at targets NE of Hawaii. It is close enough for angular spreading to deliver surf locally. Moderate period swell of 14-15 seconds should pick up late Thursday, peak late Friday, and slowly drop into Sunday from 000-030 degrees. Further west, a gale is trying to gain real estate over the open waters east of the Kurils, though a blocking ridge is pushing it northward. The marginal gales over the 310-320 degree band beyond 2400 nm on 10/29 should start to arrive locally with small surf Monday afternoon. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has below average windswell breakers from 60-90 degrees. Northerly exposures have higher surf with the trend as explained above. Heights should increase for all east side exposures on Thursday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the timing of the local trade wind increase and associated weather. Its a done deal for the surf with the strong breezes on the north side of the nearby shear line posed to fill in locally overnight into Thursday from 000-030 degrees. Rough, above windswell average breakers should hold Thursday into early Saturday. The windswell direction will lag veering relative to the local wind, with dominant waves NNE Thursday, NE Friday, ENE Saturday, and E Sunday. The large high pressure cell and long fetch to the E to NE into early next week should make for a long-lived windswell event. Heights should remain elevated Sunday into Monday from 60-90 degrees. Mid Wednesday on southern shores has small, long-period surf from 190 degrees. It should slowly decline on Thursday. The new pacioos/cdip buoy off samoa did a good job in aiding our estimate for wave magnitude locally. A gale SE of New Zealand 10/20-22 was the source. It arrived at the buoy on 10/25, which set the arrival locally 4 days later. This small event should be short-lived. The buoy showed another smaller wave episode arrive from 190 degrees on Tuesday 10/28. It has slightly shorter dominant wave period, thus, it will take longer to travel to Hawaii from samoa. It should fill in on Saturday from 190 degrees at levels lower than 10/29. The source was a smaller gale SE of New Zealand 10/24-25. Into the long range, jet level troughs and surface low pressures are modelled to continue to be active from longitudes of Tasmania eastward to south of French Polynesia. Models keep this pattern until around 11/4. That would mean off and on small episodes locally, with peak days to average southerly levels, from 10/29-11/12. That is more than normal for early November. More specifically, a storm-force system generate seas to 40 feet just east of Tasmania 10/28. This should have some long-period surf building locally 11/4 from 208-220 degrees, lasting a few days. In the north Pacific, troughs arriving near the Kuril Islands in the models well out next week show a similar pattern of bumping into a blocking ridge, which flattens the jet stream zonal for a few days, allowing gales near the western to central Aleutians, but not digging well enough into the NW Pacific basin. This should keep surf from WNW to NW below average and events short-lived. One such event is due late Monday lasting into Wednesday 11/5 from within 310-330 degrees. Another strong high pressure is modelled to nose east from the dateline Monday to Wednesday, making for more short-period surf from within NNW to NNE 11/5-7. East side should rise with a new fresh to strong trade wind event over 11/5-7. This is not too uncommon for November, which has on average 9 days of trades fresh or greater, with a 6 day standard deviation. The modelled pattern suggests an above windswell average spell for the first half of November. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, October 31. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
10/29
4NNW1157UP13-19ENEUP
6ENE724UP
2SSW1435UP
THU
10/30
8NNE10810UPMED19-23ENEUP
4N1268SAMEMED
8ENE745UPLOW
2SSW1324DOWNMED
FRI
10/31
10NE9810SAMEMED19-23ESAME
4N1468UPMED
2S1223DOWNLOW
SAT
11/01
4N1468SAMELOW17-21EDOWN
8ENE857DOWNLOW
2SSW1324UPLOW
SUN
11/02
3NNE1135DOWNLOW17-21ESAME
7E846DOWNLOW
2S1213SAMELOW
MON
11/03
2NW1424UPLOW13-19EDOWN
6E835DOWNLOW
2SSE1013SAMELOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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