Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Thursday October 30: a series of north swells will maintain small to low end moderate surf along north facing shores through Wednesday, with a slightly larger boost expected on Thursday. The current south-southwest swell will decline on Saturday. Another south-southwest swell could produce moderate south shore surf by Wednesday. A slightly increase in short period surf is due along east facing shores this weekend. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through tonight, increasing to 3 to 5 ft Saturday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Saturday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through tonight and 2 to 3 feet Saturday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet through tonight and 3 to 4 feet Saturday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: low spell for northern shores. Detailed: mid Friday on northern shores has small, shorter-period breakers from 330-350 degrees. Surf should remain low on Saturday. The jet stream has shifted further north and more zonal for the northwest to central north Pacific. This is keeping surface features weaker in the NW Pacific and giving way to negligible swell from WNW to NW. The gulf of Alaska has been the focus for the jet level troughs and gyres, and broad surface low pressure systems. These systems are a bit east of the Hawaii swell window, though close enough to keep small surf. One such low pressure pattern expanded 10/21-22, with a long, wide fetch of marginal gales from central to eastern Aleutians southward about 1000 nm aimed at targets NE of Hawaii. This should be the source for surf over the weekend into early next week. It should keep similar or a notch bigger surf for Saturday as the direction favors 350-010 degrees. It should linger from 000-020 degrees Sunday into Monday then drop off to tiny to small levels by Tuesday. Compact tropical system Ana is well WNW of Oahu 10/24. The system had a very short fetch of a few tens of miles towards Hawaii as it crossed the NW Hawaiian islands 10/22-24 as well as being in the Kauai shadow. No surf beyond tiny is expected this weekend from 280-300 degrees. Ana is moving north of the Kauai shadow on 10/24. Models have it accelerated towards the gulf of Alaska, passing well north of Hawaii mid Saturday. The compact size of the fetches aimed at Hawaii and fast track motion means minimal surf. Wave watch iii only estimates 1 feet deep water swell of short intervals. Ana is being absorbed by a broad area of weak surface low pressure, which has crossed the dateline on 10/24. As this low passes well north of Hawaii, a short fetch of marginal gales about 1500 nm away could bring in small surf from 330-360 degrees on Wednesday into Thursday. Mid Friday on eastern shores has surf below the trade windswell average from 60-90 degrees. Heights are expected to pick up on Saturday from the NNE to NE. Although the local winds are expected to hover within gentle to moderate on Saturday, a ribbon of strong trades on the ne-side of a shearline located about 300 nm NE of Oahu 10/23-24 is expected to give a short-lived windswell. It should pick up Saturday, peak Saturday night above the trade windswell average, then drop on Sunday, all within 020-050 degrees. Otherwise, windswell from 60-90 degrees should remain below average through the period. Mid Friday on southern shores has surf near the march-october average. It is expected to drop on Saturday. A fast-moving severe gale S to SE of New Zealand 10/13-15 picked up the surf locally on Wednesday and peaked on Thursday 10/23. It is decreasing on Friday. Since the dominant wave period is already 13 seconds, its life cycle is just about exhausted. There could be some lingering small sets on Saturday from 180-190 degrees. A similar pattern S to SE of New Zealand occurred 10/20-22. This could should trend up the surf locally late Tuesday from 190-200 degrees. A new pacioos/cdip buoy has been deployed near-shore to the east of american samoa. The location is about 2200 nm away from Oahu along about the 190 degree great circle route. With swell of 17 second dominant wave periods, travel time will be about 3 days away to Oahu, and with 14 second bands, about 4 days away, if dominant swell direction is within 180-200 degrees. Into the long range, jet level troughs and surface low pressure systems continue to favor the southern Tasman sea eastward to south of French Polynesia. This suggests more activity for south shores into the first week of November, with magnitudes of average levels or less from 180-220 degrees. For northern shores, another gulf of Alaska low pressure system is predicted to set up a long fetch from the central to eastern Aleutians aimed NE of Hawaii starting 10/28. This could bring more n-component surf for roughly 10/31. Heights likely near or below the north shore October average. A strong, broad surface high pressure system is modelled to fill a vast area N to NE of Hawaii 10/30-11/1. This should trend up windswell from 40-90 degrees. The local trades should also trend up 10/30-11/1. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, October 27. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
10/24
3NNW1135DOWN11-16ENESAME
5ENE724SAME
2SSW1335DOWN
SAT
10/25
3N1446UPLOW11-16ESAME
5NE835UPLOW
2S1224DOWNLOW
SUN
10/26
3NNE1235DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
5NE835DOWNLOW
MON
10/27
3NNE1235SAMELOW9-13EDOWN
4NE712DOWNLOW
TUE
10/28
2NNE1224DOWNLOW9-13ESAME
1SSW1724UPLOW
WED
10/29
3NNW1235UPLOW11-16ENEUP
5ENE612UPLOW
2SSW1535UPLOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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