Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Thursday June 4: a large south swell will begin to fill in across the region beginning late Saturday. Surf will likely reach advisory levels along the southern shores sometime late Sunday through Monday night before subsiding through the rest of the week. A small short period northwest swell will continue through the period. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 today, increasing to 3 to 5 feet Saturday. Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Saturday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet through Saturday. Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Saturday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: steady surf from northern and southern hemispheric, mid latitude sources. Detailed: mid Tuesday on northern shores has small breakers just below the may average from 300-315 degrees and 000-030 degrees. Heights should decline on Wednesday. The extra-tropical remnant of typhoon dolphin moved N as it weakened 5/20-21 to the NW of Guam. Surf from this source peaked on Monday 5/25 and is slowly declining 5/26. The remnant merged with a broad area of low pressure filling the NW Pacific basin west of the dateline and N of 40°N 4/21-22. Seas from marginal gales were aimed NE of Hawaii. The pattern shifted east 5/22-23 with a slightly better aim towards Hawaii for seas just south of the Aleutians near the dateline. This could keep small breakers locally mid week from 315-340 degrees. Another weak low pressure tracked east along the western to central Aleutians 5/24-25. It could keep the small surf Friday into Saturday from 320-340 degrees. Models show a compact gale forming 5/26 east of the Kuril Islands. It is predicted to race NE to near the dateline on the Aleutians by Thursday 5/28. Wave models bring in the new, small event for Sunday 5/31 from 310-320 degrees. Mid Tuesday on eastern shores has well below average wave energy from 50-90 degrees. Similar conditions are expected through the period. Northerly exposures have short-period waves from 000-030 degrees. It should decline on Wednesday. A meridional axis of weak low pressure has prevailed along 150°W to the NE to NNE of Hawaii since Saturday 5/23. A reinforcement weak low formed 5/25 near 40°N, 150°W. Fresh to strong breezes over the 000-030 degree band beyond 800 nm of Hawaii should keep small surf at levels below the trade windswell average for northerly exposures of the east side into Friday. Mid Tuesday on southern shores has breakers above the March - October, seasonal average from 185-200 degrees. Heights are declining. Low pressure SE to E of New Zealand 5/18-19 was the source for the recent above average swell 5/25-26. The pacioos/cdip american samoa buoy showed a steady drop in swell energy 5/22-23, which should spell a local decline that is beginning to occur locally 5/26. Dispersion allows swell trains to spread over vast areas due to the variation of wave speed with wave period. The shorter waves travel slower and the tail end of this episode should slowly linger on Wednesday into Thursday from 185-200 degrees. The low pressure SE to E of New Zealand 5/18-19 deepened as it shifted southward 5/19-20 well south of French Polynesia. Gales over the 180-190 degree band should provide moderate period swell of 13-15 seconds picking up late Wednesday, peaking Thursday 5/28, and dropping Friday from near due south. Heights should hover near the summer average. A complex pattern of low pressures SW, S, and E of New Zealand 5/20-22 had various pockets of gales. The most prominent was a compact low east of the north island of New Zealand 4/21-22 that tracked east. All of the above has a probability of keeping surf near the summer average from within 180-220 degrees locally 5/29-30. The low pressure south of New Zealand 5/21-24 steadily deepened in central pressure, dropping below 970 mb by 5/23. New Zealand shadowed the 25-30 feet seas though a narrow fetch did aim at Hawaii. This could allow low, long-period swell locally Saturday 5/30 from 190-200 degrees. It could climb a notch above average late in the day. The low pressure pattern continued to deepen as it moved east of the New Zealand shadow 5/24-25. Central pressure dropped to 938 mb by 12Z 5/25 and held to 00Z 5/26, or Monday am to pm locally. The center moved slowly NE near 55°S, 170°W. A large, wide fetch of gales to storm-force winds over the 180-200 degree band with the head of the fetch near 45°S, or about 4000 nm away late Monday. The jason altimeter validated seas within 30-35 feet 12Z 2/26, early Tuesday locally. The system is steadily weakening 5/26 and drifting east. Long period forerunners of 20-25 second are due to fill in Saturday night locally. The onset stage for remote events is typically slow, taking about a day for the more common southerly swell events. However, for episode well above average as this one is anticipated, the onset stage is shorter since more energy is placed in the longer wave period bands. This should mean a steady rise Sunday. More details will be possible once the swell trains roll under the samoa buoy, which is close to the great circle ray between the source and Hawaii. Into the long range, well above summer average surf is expected Sunday to Tuesday 5/31-6/2. Models show a weaker low pressure filling into the declining broad area of low pressure south of French Polynesia by 5/27. This could give a reinforcement to keep surf locally near to a notch above the summer average from 180-190 degrees Wednesday to Friday 6/3-5. In the northern hemisphere, weak low pressure areas between 40-50°N will be monitored for potential of short-lived, small NW to N events within 6/1-5. Wave energy from the trades should remain below average 6/1-3. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, May 29. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
05/26
2WNW1335DOWN7-10NNESAME
4NNE824DOWN
3SSW1557DOWN
WED
05/27
2NW1124DOWNLOW7-10NESAME
3NNE813SAMELOW
3SSW1346DOWNMED
THU
05/28
2NNW1234UPLOW7-10ENEUP
3NNE813SAMELOW
2S1435UPLOW
FRI
05/29
2NNW1234SAMELOW9-13ENEUP
3NNE813SAMELOW
2S1324DOWNLOW
2SSW1435UPLOW
SAT
05/30
2NNW1124SAMELOW9-13ENESAME
2S1324DOWNLOW
2SSW2046UPLOW
SUN
05/31
2NW1335UPLOW9-13ENESAME
4SSW20812UPLOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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