Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Tuesday April 7: small short-period northwest swell will continue through the week. Background southerly swell will persist through the forecast period. Short-period easterly swell will continue through the week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: steadiest surf from the east. Detailed: mid Monday on northern shores has surf near the September to may seasonal average from 290-320 degrees with 12-16 second periods. This event is expected to lower into Tuesday. A gale low tracked east along 45°N 3/24-27, setting up a captured fetch over the 290-310 degree band. Seas of 20-25 feet reached the dateline 3/26. Once east of the dateline, the system aimed to the NE as the seas pointed more to the NE of Hawaii. The large generation zone west of the dateline should make for a long-lived event from 290-310 degrees. Below average breakers should continue on Tuesday and fade out on Wednesday. Low, shorter-period swell from within 310-360 degrees, which were generated while the system was east of the dateline 3/27-29, is expected to be added in as well for Tuesday into Thursday as it fades. The primary jet stream has shifted northward to the Aleutians since 3/27. Weak jet level troughs cover the sub-tropics northward in a more or less zonal fashion. Associated surface low pressure cells are to be weak and far away. This pattern should give way to a spring minimum of north Pacific surf. A compact gale low east of Tokyo 3/30 is tracking east. It is forecast to weaken with gales remaining beyond 2000 nm away over the 300-305 degree band by late Tuesday. A smidgen of swell is possible locally mid to late Saturday making for low-end conditions. Mid Monday on eastern shores has surf near the trade windswell average from 70-90 degrees. Similar surf is expected on Tuesday. See the latest NWS state forecast regarding complexities to the evolving local winds this week. Surface high pressure near 30°N, 140-150°W is expected to remain steady this week with fresh to strong trades on its southern flank east of Hawaii, though at times, nosing into Hawaii. The pacioos/cdip buoy on 3/30 shows elevated windswell in the 8-10 second bands. These longer windswell wave periods are expected to hold through the period, keeping similar surf all week from 70-90 degrees. Models suggest an uptick in easterly windswell surf for the weekend. Mid Monday on southern shores facing the SSE has surf near the summer average. A downward trend is predicted for Tuesday. A huge area of severe-gale to storm force winds aimed large swell at the Americas to the SE of French Polynesia 3/20-23. With such a wide source, angular spreading allowed swell to reach Hawaii from 160-170 degrees. The event filled in late last Friday, peaked over the weekend, and is slowly dropping on Monday 3/30. The pacioos/cdip barbers PT buoy shows a downward shift in the dominant wave periods. Since the source was large and far away, the episode should linger, with a slow decline Tuesday into Wednesday from the same direction. An active pattern of gale lows have been tracking eastward within 50-65°S latitude to the S to SE of New Zealand 3/23-30 with about a 3-day spacing. This should be adequate to keep summer background level swell off and on from 180-200 degrees, which translates to inconsistent small sets at the highest locations while nearly flat for most breaker zones. The start of this pattern is expected 3/30 and hold through the period. Into the long range, background, long-period surf from 180-200 degrees should hold. Moderate period swell from 160-180 degrees could be added next Monday to Wednesday, which is being generated 3/29-30 to the south of French Polynesia. In the northern hemisphere, below average conditions expected 4/5-7 from within WNW to N. Trade windswell should hover near average from 70-90 degrees. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, April 1. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
03/30
5WNW14810DOWN13-19ESAME
7E846SAME
3SSE1446DOWN
TUE
03/31
3NW1346DOWNHIGH9-13ESEDOWN
5E835DOWNMED
2SSE1335DOWNMED
WED
04/01
2NNW1024DOWNLOW13-19EUP
6E835SAMELOW
2SSE1224DOWNLOW
THU
04/02
2NNW924SAMELOW13-19EDOWN
6E835SAMELOW
2SSW1424SAMELOW
FRI
04/03
5E835SAMELOW11-16ESEDOWN
2SSW1524SAMELOW
SAT
04/04
2WNW1324UPLOW13-19EUP
6E946UPLOW
2SSW1424SAMELOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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