No high surf advisory or warnings.
Surf along north facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Wednesday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Wednesday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Wednesday.
Outlook through Tuesday October 04: the small north-northwest swell will gradually ease into Thursday. Another small northwest swell is forecast to arrive at the end of the period. Choppy short-period surf will continue along east facing shores through the week and may slightly increase over the upcoming weekend due to strengthening trade winds. Background small south swells will provide small surf for the south facing shores through the period.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
Collaborative Surf Table
Collaborative Surf Table Legend
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Short-period surf from N to E.
Detailed: Mid Monday on northern shores has minimal surf for the early fall season at levels below the September average. An increase is expected Monday afternoon.
A summery pattern has held over the past week in the north Pacific with the jet stream far north and more zonal. This has led to a below average surf pattern locally 9/19-26. The below average pattern is expected to hold into next week.
Surface high pressure tracked east from west of the dateline along 40°N 9/24 to a position near 165°W by 9/26. Fresh to strong breezes on the north side of a shearline north of 30°N NW to NNE of Hawaii set up over the 340-360 degree band 9/25 and 000-020 degree band 9/26. The head of the fetch was about 500 nm away 9/26. Proximity should allow small, short- period surf 9/26-28.
Nw Hawaii buoy 51101 measured a rise in short-period, NNW to N swell Monday morning. The pacioos/cdip buoy off Waimea bay, Oahu had an upward trend mid day 9/26. The small event should be filled in Monday night and hold about the same into Wednesday as the dominant direction veers from 350 degrees late 9/26 to 020 degrees by 9/28.
A weak low pressure cell west of the dateline 9/25-26 had fresh to strong breezes in an area about 1800 nm away. Wave model output suggests the source too weak and too far away to bring surf beyond tiny locally, which if it does fill in, would be Friday from 310-320 degrees.
Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers below the trade windswell average. Heights are trending up.
A new surface high pressure cell is predicted to become established NE of Hawaii by 9/27 and hold through the week. Moderate to fresh trades over Oahu Tuesday to Wednesday should keep surf a notch below the trade windswell average. For Thursday into the weekend, some models are suggesting an increase in local and upstream trades, that would trend the surf up. There is some disagreement between the models. Stay tuned for the latest forecast.
Mid Monday on southern shores has below average southerly swell. Low conditions are expected to continue on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure dominated the region over and S to SE of New Zealand 9/19-26. Surface low pressures have favored the mid latitudes to the east of the Hawaii swell window and south of Australia. Wave models keep low swell near 1 foot with long wave periods of 14-18 seconds through this week from the Tasman, 208-220 degrees and French Polynesia, 140-170 degrees. Heights are expected to remain below the active season, March to October, average through the period with subtle ups and downs, the basic background pattern.
Into the long range, an unfavorable southerly surf pattern is expected to hold from the mid latitude source region in the southern hemisphere with below average breakers 10/2-4.
In the northern hemisphere, a marginal gale is predicted near the dateline at 50°N on 9/30 that could make for a small NW to NNW event roughly 10/4-5.
Tropical activity in the eastern north Pacific will be monitored for surf potential. In particular, the newly formed system near 140°W on 9/26, tropical depression 19°E, will be closely watched.
Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, September 28.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to email@example.com or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
NWS FORECASTERS AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL