Pat Caldwell

Hazards
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES IS CANCELLED
Forecast
Surf along south facing shores will be 4 to 7 feet this afternoon and lower to 4 to 6 feet Monday. Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday and briefly increase to 3 to 5 feet Monday night. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Monday. Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Monday.
Outlook
Outlook through Saturday July 11: the south swell producing advisory level surf along south facing shores will gradually subside from later this evening through Tuesday. A series of small to medium size south swells are expected to continue through Friday. A small west-northwest swell is expected to linger through the middle of next week. Strengthening trade winds will cause short period, choppy surf to increase next week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: active summer pattern from around the compass. DETAILED... MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS SURF ABOVE THE SUMMER AVERAGE OF NEAR NIL. THE PACIOOS/CDIP WAIMEA BUOY MID FRIDAY 7/3 SHOWS SHORT-PERIOD SWELL OF 8-12 SECONDS FROM 315-325 DEGREES. THE TREND IS DOWN. THE NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM HAS MAINTAINED TROUGHS FURTHER SOUTH THAN NORMAL FOR SUMMER FROM ASIA TO NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS IS MAKING FOR SMALL...SHORT-PERIOD EPISODES. MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DATELINE 06/29-07/01 SET UP A WIDE REGION OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF NEAR GALES...NOSING TO NEAR 800 NM AWAY. SURF FROM THIS SOURCE PEAKED LOCALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON 7/2. THIS EVENT IS MODELLED TO DROP WITHIN TINY TO SMALL LEVELS ON SATURDAY FROM 315-330 DEGREES. WAVE WATCH III...WW3...MODEL BRINGS IN A LOW...SHORT-PERIOD SWELL FROM 310 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. THIS IS FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE DATELINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE BROAD LOW PRESSURE PATTERN. IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH A NEW EPISODE DUE LATE MONDAY. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE BAND STRETCHING FROM NEAR JAPAN EASTWARD 1000 NM 7/1-2 HAS AIMED AT TARGETS WELL NE OF HAWAII BEYOND 2000 NM. A NEW LOW PRESSURE CELL FORMED ON THIS TROUGH AND DEEPENED NEAR THE DATELINE 7/2-3. IT IS MODELLED TO WEAKEN AS THE TRACK TURN N EAST OF THE DATELINE 7/4. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES...WITH PATCHES OF NEAR GALES ARE SEEN IN THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES LATE THURSDAY 7/2 NEAR THE DATELINE. THE FETCH SHOULD STAY BEYOND 1400 NM AWAY. SMALL...SHORT-PERIOD SURF FROM THIS SOURCE SHOULD FILL IN MID TO LATE MONDAY FROM 300-320 DEGREES. IT SHOULD PEAK ON TUESDAY AND FADE ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS BELOW AVERAGE BREAKERS FROM TRADES E TO NE OF HAWAII. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM 40-90 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEE THE LATEST NWS STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AN EXPLANATION OF THE EVOLVING LOCAL WINDS. A SLOW INCREASE OF TRADES OVER AND E TO ENE OF HAWAII SUNDAY TO TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SHORT-PERIOD BREAKERS. FRESHENING TRADES TUESDAY SHOULD BRING HEIGHTS TO NEAR THE TRADE WINDSWELL AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY FROM 40-70 DEGREES. MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS BREAKERS ABOVE THE MARCH TO OCTOBER...SEASONAL AVERAGE. THE PACIOOS/CDIP BUOY OFF SW OAHU SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND IN THE 14-16 SECOND BAND FROM 180-190 DEGREES. SURF SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME ON SATURDAY AS A NEW LONG-PERIOD EVENT ARRIVES. AN AUSTRAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF HAWAII WITHIN 40-50S 6/26-27 SET UP A CAPTURED FETCH OVER THE 180-190 DEGREE BAND BEHIND A NORTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT. GALES GREW SEAS TO 25 FEET WITH THE HEAD OF THE FETCH ABOUT 3500 NM AWAY. NOAA SOUTHERN BUOYS 51002 AND 51003 ON 7/3 SHOW AN UPWARD TREND IN THE 14-16 SECOND BANDS. THIS EVENT HAS FILLED INTO OAHU IN THE MORNING 7/3. IT WILL LIKELY PEAK OVERNIGHT WITH A SLOW DECLINE INTO SUNDAY FROM 180-190 DEGREES. A SLEW OF WINTER-CALIBER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM LONGITUDES SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA TO JUST E OF NEW ZEALAND ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE OVERLAPPING...LONG-PERIOD SWELL ENERGY FROM 190-220 DEGREES. SHADOWING BY ISLANDS OF THE SW PACIFIC AND NEW ZEALAND MAKE FOR LARGER ERROR BARS ON LOCAL SURF HEIGHT ESTIMATES. WITH THE LONG TRAVEL DISTANCE...THE LESS FREQUENT THOUGH COMMON LARGER SETS WILL LIKELY BE INCONSISTENT DURING THE ONSET DAYS...THOUGH WITH OVERLAPPING EVENTS MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...CONSISTENCY SHOULD PICK UP. FOR TASMAN SEA ENERGY WITHIN 208-220 DEGREES...THERE ARE BACK TO BACK EVENTS STRAIGHT INTO THE LONG RANGE. AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN TWO WEEKS AGO MAINTAINED EXTREME SEAS AS IT PROGRESSED SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA AND INTO THE TASMAN SEA WINDOW 6/27-28...WITH A WEAKENING TREND. SEAS WERE 40-50 FEET SOUTH OF TASMANIA LATE ON 6/26 AND FAVORED 30-35 FEET AS THE SYSTEM NOSED TO SW NEW ZEALAND 6/28. PHOTOGRAPHS OF BREAKERS IN FIJI OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE CONFIRMED A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. THIS LONG PERIOD ENERGY SHOULD FILL IN LOCALLY SATURDAY...PEAK SUNDAY...AND SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY FROM 208-220 DEGREES. LESS FREQUENT THOUGH COMMON HIGHER SETS SHOULD BE ABOVE THE SUMMER AVERAGE WITH ABUNDANT POWER ASSOCIATED WITH LONG PERIOD WAVE ENERGY. THE NEXT AUSTRAL WINTER LOW PRESSURE PASSED SOUTH OF TASMANIA 6/29 WITH 30-40 FEET SEAS AND WEAKENED TO 25 FEET SEAS AS IT REACHED SW NEW ZEALAND 6/30. THIS EVENT SHOULD BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN THE FIRST ONE. IT SHOULD HAVE LONG-PERIOD FORERUNNERS MONDAY...PEAKING TUESDAY NEAR TO JUST ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THEN SLOWLY DROPPING WEDNESDAY. FOR NEW ZEALAND SWELL ENERGY...THERE ARE ALSO BACK TO BACK EVENTS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE NOSED INTO THE SWELL WINDOW JUST EAST OF NEW ZEALAND 6/28 WITH SEAS OF 30-40 FEET. THE SYSTEM WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. JASON ALTIMETER VALIDATED SEAS TO 30 FEET DURING THE DECLINING STAGE 6/29 06Z TO THE SE OF NEW ZEALAND. ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES SUGGESTED THE STRONGEST WINDS AIMED AT TARGETS E OF HAWAII. HOWEVER...THIS WAS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE SOURCE THAT CREATED THE ABOVE AVERAGE SURF LOCALLY 6/20-21. WW3 PLAYS DOWN BOTH. THE AMERICAN SAMOA BUOY IS NOT REPORTING. ERRING TOWARDS SAFETY...ABOVE AVERAGE SURF IS PREDICTED WITH ANOTHER LIKELY CASE OF WW3 LOW BIAS. THE EVENT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE SWELL TRAINS ROLL UNDER THE SOUTHERN NOAA BUOYS. FORERUNNERS ARE DUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 190-200 DEGREES. IT SHOULD BE FILLED IN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A NEW EVENT IS ON ITS HEELS. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE WAS ALSO OF WINTER-CALIBER STATUS...WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR TO BELOW 950 MB...AND HAD A SIMILAR WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVED EAST. IT NOSED EAST OF THE NEW ZEALAND SHADOW 6/30 ALSO WITH 30-40 FEET SEAS. ASCAT SUGGESTED THE PRIMARY WINDS WERE MORE ZONAL...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY THE WW3 IS DOWNPLAYING THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE SOURCE CHARACTERISTICS ARE SIMILAR TO SYSTEMS THAT HAVE CREATED ABOVE AVERAGE SURF...SUCH AS THE EVENT OF 6/20-21...SO THIS ONE IS ALSO PREDICTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE THOUGH WILL NEED FINE TUNING FROM THE NEARBY BUOYS. THE SECOND EVENT WORKED UPON EXISTING SEAS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM...SO THE SECOND ONE SHOULD HAVE BIGGER SURF LOCALLY. LONG-PERIOD FORERUNNERS FROM THIS EVENT ARE DUE MONDAY...WITH THE EVENT FILLED IN BY MID TUESDAY FROM 190-200 DEGREES. IT WILL LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY 7/8. INTO THE LONG RANGE...TWO MORE SYSTEMS FOLLOWED THE ONES ABOVE MOVING EAST SOUTH OF TASMANIA TO SOUTH OF NEW ZEALAND 7/1-3 AND MODELLED FOR 7/4-5. THESE ARE WEAKER AND WOULD LIKELY MAKE FOR SURF NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE 7/9-13 LOCALLY. THE FIRST ONE NOSED EAST OF THE NEW ZEALAND SHADOW BEFORE WEAKENING 7/3. THIS COULD ADD SIMILAR NEAR AVERAGE SURF LOCALLY 7/10-11 FROM 195-200 DEGREES. IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...A NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE JET STREAM IN THE NW TO CENTRAL N PACIFIC SPELLS A DOWNWARD TREND FOR NW TO NNW SURF POTENTIAL STARTING 7/9. TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE MONITORED...THOUGH PRESENT MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SURF LOCALLY FROM THEM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MODELLED TO SIT N OF HAWAII 7/7-10...WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO THE S AND SE. THIS GIVES POTENTIAL FOR FRESH OR STRONGER TRADES...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD TREND BREAKERS FROM WINDSWELL UP ABOVE AVERAGE GOING INTO 7/10 FROM 70-90 DEGREES. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO MAJOR REVISIONS. THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON MONDAY...JULY 6. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
07/03
3NW1046DOWN7-10EUP
3S1557UP
SAT
07/04
2NW924DOWNMED7-10ESAME
3S1447DOWNMED
2SW2247UPLOW
SUN
07/05
2NW1024SAMELOW9-13EUP
2S1224DOWNLOW
3SW1768UPLOW
MON
07/06
3NW1246UPLOW11-16EUP
5E612UPLOW
3SSW1768UPLOW
TUE
07/07
3NW1246SAMEMED17-21ENEUP
7ENE624UPLOW
3SSW18610UPLOW
WED
07/08
2NW1024DOWNLOW17-21ENESAME
7ENE735UPLOW
4SSW16610SAMELOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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