PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet today, then 2 feet or less on Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today, lowering to 2 to 4 feet on Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.

Outlook

Outlook through Wednesday August 31: short-period trade wind swell will continue from Thursday through the weekend and into next week, with surf on east facing shores remaining below advisory levels. Otherwise, no significant swells are expected. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
08/22
5E724SAME11-16ESAME
1SW1713UP
TUE
08/23
3NE1035SAMEMED7-10SEDOWN
1SW1613SAMELOW
WED
08/24
3NE1035DOWNLOW9-13EUP
1SW1513SAMELOW
THU
08/25
5E724UPLOW12-18EUP
1S1513UPLOW
FRI
08/26
5E724SAMELOW12-18ESAME
1S1513SAMELOW
SAT
08/27
5E724SAMELOW12-18ESAME
1S1413SAMELOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Short-period NE event to top the heights Tuesday to Wednesday. Detailed: Mid Monday on eastern exposures has breakers from 50-90 degrees at levels below the trade windswell average. An increase is due late Monday. The northeast Pacific surface high pressure system had tight pressure gradient on its SE flank from 35°N, 140°W toward California 8/18-19. The fetch of strong breezes aimed at Hawaii over the 40-50 degree band covered a long band 1400-2000 nm away. The winds weakened as the fetch moved SW with the westward movement of the high cell 8/20. Surface winds dropped to moderate by 8/21. Noaa NE Hawaii buoy 51000 shows an increase in the 10-12 second wave period energy from 45 degrees on Monday morning 8/22. This energy is expected to fill in locally near sundown. This remote windswell should build breakers to near the trade windswell average by Tuesday morning and hold into Wednesday morning. It is expected to settle down mid Wednesday to Thursday. Trades over and E to ENE of Hawaii are modelled to increase within moderate to marginally fresh 8/25-27. This should trend up the short-period waves from within 60-90 degrees. Heights are expected to stay below the trade windswell average. No surf beyond tiny is expected from WNW to N this period. Mid Monday on southern exposures has breakers from within 140-220 degrees and within 11 to 20 second intervals at heights below the active season, March to October, average. Similar summer minimal, background surf is estimated for Tuesday. Various sources in the southern hemisphere 8/14-19 are expected to keep breakers at background summer levels, which is characterized by moderate- to long-period, deep water swell within 1-2 feet, through the period. Wave watch iii, ww3, ocean wave model suggests the dominant source from the Tasman sea, 208-220 degrees for Monday 8/22 into 8/24. It was generated by gales to storm-force winds in the southern Tasman 8/14-16. The pacioos/cdip buoy off Lanai shows the sliver of 16-20 second energy on the increase from the Tasman direction on Monday morning 8/22. Ww3 swings the dominant background surf to within 170-190 degrees for Thursday to Saturday. The primary source was a gale to storm- force system tracking east just north of the antarctic ice sheet SE of New Zealand 8/17-19, aiming highest seas at the Americas. Angular spreading can allow low swell locally. Into the long range, continued background conditions for southern exposures 8/28-31. In the northern hemisphere, a tiny NNW bump is suggested for 8/28 and another remote NE windswell 8/29-30. The eastern tropical Pacific will be monitored for easterly swell from potential tropical cyclone development. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, August 24. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

Footer

NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

Back to Top