PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 2 feet through Saturday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Saturday. Surf along east facing shores will be 5 to 7 feet through Saturday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Saturday.

Outlook

Outlook through Friday August 05: easterly trade winds will continue to produce short period choppy surf along east facing shores through next Friday. There will also be a series of small southerly swells throughout the forecast period with surf heights remaining below advisory levels. No other significant swells are expected. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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BURKE

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
07/29
6ENE835SAME13-19ENESAME
2SSW1424DOWN
SAT
07/30
6ENE946UPLOW11-16EDOWN
1SW1724UPLOW
SUN
07/31
5ENE935SAMELOW11-16ESAME
2SW1535SAMELOW
MON
08/01
5ENE935SAMELOW11-16ESAME
2SW1424DOWNLOW
TUE
08/02
6ENE835UPLOW13-19EUP
1S1724UPLOW
WED
08/03
7ENE846UPLOW17-21ENEUP
2S1535SAMELOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Steady ENE and S to SW swell near or below average. Detailed: Mid Friday on southern shores has breakers from 180-220 degrees at levels below the March to October, active season average. Similar surf is expected on Saturday. There has been a steady pace of mid latitude low pressure systems within longitudes of Tasmania to south of Hawaii, though none in the primary source zone SE to E of New Zealand with sufficient magnitude or aim at Hawaii. Surf is expected to remain mostly below average with peak moments to near the average. A storm-force system in the Tasman sea 7/22-23 is bucking the shadows of New Zealand and the SW Pacific islands for producing surf in Hawaii. Long-period swell are expected to fill in on Saturday from 208-220 degrees, peak on Sunday, then drop on Monday. A low pressure deepened at the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window near 40s, 155°W 7/28-29. The system tracked SE rapidly with seas over 30 feet aimed at the Americas. Low odds for surf locally from 170-180 degrees picking up Tuesday and peaking Wednesday. Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers near the trade windswell average. Heights could nose up a pinch on Saturday. Surface high pressure near 40°N, 140°W held steady 7/25-27, then began a slow westward shift 7/28-29. Closer to California, strong to near gale winds aimed at targets SE of Hawaii. There was good aim at Hawaii for fresh to strong breezes within 135-150°W over the 50-70 degree band. The 7/29 morning ascat pass shows this pattern continuing, which leads to several more days of similar surf, even though local trades are predicted to fall to moderate speeds. The Wave Watch III shows the dominant wave period increasing to 9 seconds for 7/30, that could coincide with the upward tick in surf heights. The upstream source should keep long dominant wave periods and the surf near the trade windswell average Sunday to Tuesday, when local trades are expected to rebound. Thus near average conditions should hold into Wednesday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for an explanation of the local winds and weather. Into the long range, moderate to fresh trades should keep breakers from windswell near the average 8/4-5 from within 50-90 degrees. Southern shores are expected to be below average 8/4-6 from 180-220 degrees. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, August 1. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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