PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet through Sunday. Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Sunday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet tonight, rising to 2 to 4 feet Sunday.

Outlook

Outlook through Saturday May 07: a series of small northwest swells will reinforce the current swell this weekend and into the upcoming week. Surf heights along north facing shores will stay well below advisory levels. Strengthening trade winds will lead to rough and choppy conditions along the east facing shores throughout the period, however surf is expected to remain below advisory levels. A small southerly swell will bump surf up along the south facing shores Sunday through Monday. Another slightly larger, but still small southerly swell is slated to arrive next weekend. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
04/29
2NW1424UP11-16EDOWN
6E845SAME
2S1324SAME
SAT
04/30
4NNW1257DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
5E945SAMELOW
2S1223DOWNLOW
SUN
05/01
4NNW1468UPLOW17-21NEUP
5NE612UPLOW
4E935DOWNLOW
2SSW1724UPLOW
MON
05/02
3NNW1035DOWNLOW17-21ENESAME
7NE724UPLOW
3SSW1546SAMELOW
TUE
05/03
2NNW1024DOWNLOW17-21ENESAME
7ENE846UPLOW
3S1446DOWNLOW
WED
05/04
3WNW1646UPLOW17-21ESAME
7ENE846SAMELOW
2S1324DOWNLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Surf from around the compass. Detailed: Mid Friday on northern shores has small, rising breakers from 305-320 degrees. Active surf is predicted through the weekend at spring levels. A low pressure had a compact area of gales in a region beyond 2000 nm away on Monday near 40°N, 165°E. Nw Hawaii NOAA buoy 51101 shows a rise in the 13-15 second energy early morning 4/28. This energy is slowly filling in locally mid Friday. Waves in the 13-15 second band should be short-lived, with shorter period breakers on Saturday. The low pressure weakened 4/26-28 as it tracked NE towards the eastern Aleutians. A large area of strong winds with pockets to near gale filled the 315-330 degree band beyond 1400 nm away. Shorter period surf from this direction should fill in overnight, peak Saturday morning, then slowly trend down into Saturday night as a new event arrives. A stronger low pressure formed 4/28 near 40°N, 175°W with a steady NE track. Ascat satellite showed gales with pockets of severe gales for a small area. With the NE track, growth of seas was limited due to the short duration of the winds over a given directional band relative to Hawaii. The head of the fetch over the 325-345 degree band was about 1000 nm away. Proximity gives potential for surf above the early may average on Sunday. It should fill in during the wee hours Sunday morning, peak mid Sunday, and drop rapidly into Monday. A new low pressure formed near Hokkaido, Japan on 4/28. It has occluded with storm-force winds. The center is jogging NE just east of the Kuril Islands 4/28-29. Models show more fetch over open ocean late 4/29-30 to severe gales. The system is predicted to track more eastward 4/30-5/2 as it weakens, bringing seas within 20-23 feet about 2200 nm away 5/1. It is expected to weaken sub gale once east of 170°E. Low, long-period forerunners from 300-310 degrees are expected to slowly fill in Wednesday afternoon. Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers near average from 70-100 degrees. Similar surf is likely for Saturday. Fresh to strong easterly trades over the 20-24°N latitude band within 135-155°W longitude band 4/28-29 should keep a steady supply of average windswell through the weekend from 70-100 degrees. A new high pressure is modelled to move east from the dateline Saturday to a position north of Hawaii late Sunday to Monday. Fresh trades from 40-60 degrees are expected to increase on Sunday, then hold about the same into Wednesday with a slow veering toward easterlies. The breakers from windswell should trend up Monday and hold near to a notch above the trade windswell average Tuesday into Wednesday veering within 40-90 degrees. Mid Friday on southern shores has low, moderate-period swell from within 175-190 degrees. Inconsistent small breakers are occurring at the most refractive surf zones with other areas flat to tiny. Easterly windswell is affecting select exposures. Similar conditions are predicted for Saturday. A large area of low pressure SE of New Zealand 4/24-25 had central pressure drop to 953 mb near 60s just east the dateline. Gales to severe gales behind a front nosed to near 40s just east of southern New Zealand. Highest seas were aimed east of Hawaii. The system weakened as it moved east of the Hawaii swell window 4/26-27. The pacioos/cdip buoy off american samoa showed 4 feet deep water swell at 15 seconds from the peak of the episode on 4/28, validating the Wave Watch III model. The energy was near 190 degrees, which increases confidence for surf locally. Long period forerunners should slowly fill in locally on Sunday. The event is predicted to peak on Monday at levels near to a notch above the summer average, then slowly drop Tuesday into Wednesday from 180-200 degrees. Into the long range, a more favorable pattern for surf in Hawaii is unfolding 4/29 SE of New Zealand. A storm-force system is beginning a more northeastward track steered by a sharpening upper level trough. Gales behind an associated front are predicted to nose to near 32°S on 4/30. Wave watch iii shows deep water swell for samoa near 4-5 feet 5/3 and Tahiti near 9 feet, reflecting the higher seas aimed just east of Hawaii. This source has good odds of bringing surf above average locally, but at levels common to the south swell season. Surf should fill in locally 5/6, and peak 5/7-8 from 185 degrees. It should slowly trend down 5/9-11 from 180 degrees. In the northern hemisphere, the new WNW episode building late 5/4 should be long-lived with small, shorter-period breakers from 310-340 degrees near the may average 5/5-7. Trades are predicted to weaken 5/5-6 with dropping windswell from 70-90 degrees. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, May 2. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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