PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Wednesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Wednesday.

Outlook

Outlook through Tuesday May 31: a small south southwest swell is expected to slowly build Thursday, peak Friday, then slowly subside over the weekend, with surf below the advisory level. A small northwest swell is possible Sunday and Monday. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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DONALDSON

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
05/23
5ENE835DOWN11-16ENEDOWN
TUE
05/24
5ENE724DOWNLOW9-13ESAME
2SSW1434UPMED
WED
05/25
4ENE712DOWNLOW7-10EDOWN
2SSW1224DOWNLOW
THU
05/26
2SW1736UPLOW7-10ESAME
FRI
05/27
3SW1647SAMELOW7-10ESAME
SAT
05/28
2SW1435DOWNLOW7-10SESAME

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Dropping tradewind swell early on with Tasman swell topping the heights late in the week. Detailed: Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers near the trade windswell average from within 30-90 degrees. Heights are expected to drop below average on Tuesday from the same direction. Trades are weakening over and E to NE of Hawaii 5/23-25. The longer dominant wave periods of 8-9 seconds of recent days are modelled to drop. With the drop in local seas as well, surf should remain below average 5/24-28. No surf is expected beyond tiny for exposures to the NW to N through the period. Mid Monday on southern shores has heights at a seasonal minimum with most areas flat to tiny. Refracting trade windswell tops the heights. An increase is predicted for late Monday into Tuesday. A pair of weak low pressures near 170°W, 40 and 55°S set up a long, narrow fetch of gales over the 185-195 degree band with seas mostly near 20 feet 5/16-17. The pacioos/cdip samoa buoy received the swell 5/19-20 with the moderate period energy in the 12-16 second bands. The NOAA southern Hawaii buoy 51002 shows an increase in the 14-16 second band late morning 5/23. This low episode is expected to increase locally by sundown. It should peak on Tuesday at heights on the low side of the March to October south swell season average, then drop on Wednesday from 185-200 degrees. Odds are as high as they get for a Tasman swell locally filling in Thursday and peaking Friday, given the multiple swell shadows caused by New Zealand and islands of the SW Pacific. A low pressure had a NE track in the central Tasman sea 5/19-21. A wide area of severe gale to storm-force winds grew seas above 40 feet. Gales followed an associated front well into the tropics with seas to 30 feet reaching 30°S. Sources with a more northward reach have historically produced the largest Tasman source surf locally. The samoa buoy began to rise 5/23 with energy in the 16-22 second bands from 195-205 degrees. Heights are a notch lower at the buoy compared to Wave Watch III output. It is too early in the event cycle to place a judgment on the model/buoy discrepancy. As with most south swell episodes, the first 24-36 hours are extra-inconsistent for arrival of the larger sets. This phase is due locally Wednesday through Thursday. It should be fully filled in by Friday when it should peak above the seasonal average from 200-220 degrees. It should slowly trend down Saturday into Sunday from the same direction. Into the long range, a new system is forming in the central Tasman sea 5/23 though much weaker than the 5/19-21 system. It should produce a low, long-period event locally from 208-220 degrees 5/31-6/1. At about the same time locally, low swell from 140-160 degrees is possible from a large low pressure SW of Easter Island 5/23-24. In the north Pacific, models show a short-lived gale just south of the Aleutians west of the dateline within 5/24-25. With the travel distance beyond 2200 nm, only a small event is expected locally. It is modelled to build Sunday afternoon 5/29 and drop Monday 5/30 from 315-320 degrees. Easterly windswell is predicted to be at a seasonal minimum 5/29-30. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, May 25. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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