Pat Caldwell

Hazards
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
Forecast
Surf along south facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet through tonight lowering to 4 to 7 feet on Wednesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 6 feet through tonight lowering to 3 to 5 feet Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet through tonight and 3 to 4 feet Wednesday. Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Wednesday.
Outlook
Outlook through Monday August 3: the current south swell will continue to gradually diminish through the week. Strengthening trade winds will gradually increase short period choppy surf along east-facing shores. No other significant swell expected during the rest of the forecast period. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: South shores tapering down as east side builds. Detailed: Mid Monday on southern shores has breakers above average from 185-200 degrees with 14-19 second periods. Heights are expected to lower on Tuesday. The secondary low pressure 7/19-21 which followed the first low pressure 7/18-19 east of New Zealand turned out to produce surf in Hawaii stronger than expected. The secondary pattern sent up a long fetch to severe gales that acted upon existing seas from the first system. The second pattern also nosed further into the subtropics closer to Hawaii, meaning less loss of size during travel. The result of the combined back-to-back low pressure systems was a long-lived, .well above average event locally 7/25-27, peaking 7/26. Fetches of both low pressure systems hugged the east side of New Zealand giving dominant direction locally from 190-200 degrees with lesser energy from 180-190 degrees. The merged low pressures weakened steadily sub-gale 7/21-22 as the pattern shifted east. Southern NOAA buoys 51002-3 Monday morning 7/27 remain elevated within 14-19 seconds, keeping breakers about the same locally well into Monday night. With the large source and long travel distance over which the swell trains unravel into groups of similar wave period through dispersion, since longer wave periods travelling faster, the event should be long-lived and slowly changing. That should give way to one more day of above average surf from 185-200 degrees. Heights should fall to near the average on Wednesday, then drop below average by Thursday. A zonal jet stream near Antarctica steered a fast-moving severe gale eastward S to SE of New Zealand 7/22, with highest seas aimed at the Americas. This will likely be the dominant background source for Thursday into Saturday with below average breakers from within 180-200 degrees. Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers below the trade windswell average. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for an explanation of the evolving local trades. Gentle to moderate trades over a large area to the E to NE of Hawaii have persisted 7/26-27. Below average conditions are expected to continue on Tuesday. Trades over and to the E to NE of Hawaii are modelled to build within moderate to fresh Wednesday into the weekend, which should trend breakers from windswell near the trade windswell average by Friday from within 60-90 degrees. Into the long range, a gale to severe gale in the Tasman sea 7/26-28 should be the dominant background swell for 8/4-5 from 208-220 degrees. Wave watch iii only gives 3 feet at 15 seconds from 220 degrees at pago pago, american samoa 7/31 from this source, which suggests below average locally about 4 days later. Easterly windswell should hover around the average 8/1-4 with high uncertainty due to elusive tropical features within the latitudes of Hawaii for longitudes near Hawaii eastward 2000 nm. August is the peak month for tropical cyclonic development for the eastern and central north Pacific, and with the large scale, above average sea surface temperature pattern over and east of Hawaii to the Americas, probabilities of cyclonic development are higher. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, July 29. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
07/27
4E712SAME9-13ESAME
4SSW15610DOWN
TUE
07/28
4E712SAMELOW9-13ESAME
4SSW1468DOWNMED
WED
07/29
5E623UPLOW11-16EUP
3SSW1346DOWNLOW
THU
07/30
6E724UPLOW13-19EUP
2S1223DOWNLOW
1SSW1824UPLOW
FRI
07/31
7E734UPLOW13-19ESAME
1S1623SAMELOW
SAT
08/01
7E734SAMELOW13-19ESAME
1S1423DOWNLOW
Disclaimer
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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