Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Tuesday October 28: a small north-northwest swell is expected to peak Thursday night and lower on Friday. A slightly larger north swell is expected over the weekend, with a small reinforcement early next week. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 3 to 5 ft through Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: below average surf. Detailed: mid Wednesday on northern shores has below October average breakers from 340-010 degrees with 9-12 second intervals. This event should fade out tonight. The primary jet stream over the western to central north Pacific has shifted further north relative to the past weeks. In turn, surface low pressures are weaker and hovering near the Aleutians. This is leading to a spell of minimal surf from within WNW to NW. Jet level troughs are favoring the gulf of Alaska, giving dominant NNW to NNE surf. A compact marginal gale tracked east along the Aleutians 10/18-20, passing north of Hawaii 10/21. Highest seas aimed more at targets NE of Hawaii. The small source region and long travel distance spells well below average surf for Hawaii. Low swell of 13-15 seconds is predicted to fill in locally on Thursday from 320-340 degrees. It should hold at low levels into Saturday as the direction slowly veers to 340-360 degrees. The jet stream is amplifying a trough in the gulf of Alaska 10/22 as the surface low pressure deepens. A long, wide fetch of near to marginal gales is aiming at targets NE of Hawaii. Angular spreading should bring surf locally. This should add 000-020 degrees to the low surf Saturday afternoon. This phase should peak on Sunday and slowly drop into Monday at levels below the October average. Models for Sunday locally give 2 feet at 11 sec from 300 degrees generated by tropical system Ana. Due to the uncertainty of such features, it is downplayed for now. The fetch of winds aimed towards Hawaii is expected to remain small, on the order of a few tens of miles, and from the distance beyond a few hundred miles, making chances low for surf. This feature can be fine-tuned in the Friday forecast update. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has below average breakers from windswell. More northerly exposures are higher though trending down. Surf from 60-90 degrees should stay about the same on Thursday. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the evolving local trades. The uptick in trades Thursday into Friday should keep surf about the same through Friday. Weakening trades over and well E of Oahu should lead to a downward trend on Saturday. Mid Wednesday on southern shores has small breakers from 180-200 degrees. It should be about the same on Thursday. It is tricky to pinpoint the source for the surf 10/22, though luckily the pacioos/cdip buoy can supply the dominant direction, which points to the region SE to E of New Zealand. A compact gale SE of New Zealand about 9 days ago is likely the source. Wave watch iii keeps a similar pulse through Friday. In general, such background conditions are possible up and down through the period. Into the long range, a more definitive source is identified SE of New Zealand 10/20-21. It should make for a similar small episode, picking up 10/28 and lasting into 10/30 from 180-200 degrees. In the northern hemisphere, shorter-period N to NNE swell is expected to remain dominant 10/28-30 at levels well below the October average. This includes surf from the compact remnant of Ana that is expected to track rapidly towards the gulf of Alaska this weekend. Models have been greatly mixed on local and upstream winds, so expectations of windswell are more uncertain than normal. The most recent products suggest below average breakers from windswell out of 60-90 degrees 10/28-30. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, October 24. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
10/22
4N1057DOWN9-13ESAME
4ENE824DOWN
2S1224SAME
THU
10/23
3NNW1446UPLOW11-16ENEUP
5ENE724SAMELOW
2S1224SAMELOW
FRI
10/24
3NNW1246DOWNLOW13-19EDOWN
6ENE724SAMELOW
2S1224SAMELOW
SAT
10/25
3N1446UPLOW9-13EDOWN
4ENE723DOWNLOW
2S1224SAMELOW
SUN
10/26
4NNE1268UPLOW9-13ESAME
MON
10/27
3NNE1246SAMELOW9-13ESAME
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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