Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Friday February 6: the incoming northwest swell will hold steady through tonight before slowly declining Sunday into the new week. Another northwest swell forecast to begin arriving Thursday may boost surf heights to the advisory threshold for north and west facing shores. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 14 to 18 feet tonight, lowering to 10 to 14 feet Sunday. Surf along west facing shores will be 8 to 12 feet tonight, lowering to 5 to 8 feet Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Sunday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: short- to moderate-period NNW to N surf holding steady. Detailed: mid Friday on northern shores has disorganized, rising, short- to moderate-period breakers of 6-12 seconds from 310-350 degrees. Heights should continue to rise and maintain the confused nature due to high-energy, shorter-period waves into the weekend. A large cyclonic gyre at lower and upper atmospheric levels set up shop this week and a similar pattern is expected to last into the long range. Proximity leads to the local wave spectrum heavily weighted in the shorter wave period bands, which makes for chaotic breakers. Noaa buoy 51101 showed gale NW winds Thursday afternoon, validating the proximity. Ascat satellite on 1/29 showed a massive area of seas aimed at Hawaii, stretching from within 100 to 1500 nm away. The closer fetch areas are arriving first on Oahu on 1/30 with the shorter wave periods. These short periods of 8-12 seconds from WNW to NNW should continue into Sunday from 310-350 degrees. Within the large swath of seas aimed at Hawaii 1/28-29, highest waves from stronger gales occurred in an area to the NW to W of the primary low pressure cell near 40°N. It moved as a captured fetch over the 320-330 degree band, reaching to near 900 nm away Thursday night. This source should dominate the size locally with moderate-period swell of 13-16 seconds, building Saturday, peaking Saturday night, and slowly dropping Sunday. This source should drop below the seasonal average by Monday as a new event fills in. Within the complex cyclonic gyre north of Hawaii, an embedded low pressure cell is deepening near 45°N on 1/30. Models show it dropping to 960 mb late Friday, with a nearly stationary pattern and a slow weakening into Sunday. A compact fetch of severe gale to storm-force winds over the 345-360 degree band is expected to bring a new surf episode. It should build Monday morning to above the seasonal average in the afternoon, peak Monday night, then drop into Wednesday from the same direction. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the increasing konas, or southerly to westerly component winds Monday to Wednesday. A SW to W windswell is expected to trend upward into Wednesday. It is too early for specifics. No surf is expected from the southern hemisphere this period and next week 2/5-7. Into the long range, a large blocking pattern is forming over the western Aleutians 1/30 and is modelled to extend well north towards the arctic ocean and western Russia 2/1-4. A low pressure forming near Hokkaido, Japan 1/30 is modelled to stay locked in position due to the block. This source may add well below average WNW roughly next Friday 2/6. For local surf, the feature of attention is a weaker branch of the jet stream extending eastward 2/1-4, linking into the large cyclonic gyre, which is modelled to remain north of the state 1/30-2/5. Short wave troughs spaced 1-2 days apart in the weaker jet are modelled to be associated with surface fronts and areas of enhanced winds to gales over the 270-315 degree band between the dateline and Hawaii. This pattern would bring above average, short- to moderate-period breakers 2/5-7, basically victory-at-sea conditions, given the local winds 2/5-7 are predicted to be within SW to NW at fresh or greater speeds. Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, February 2. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
01/30
8NNW121014UP7-10NWSAME
SAT
01/31
9NNW141418UPLOW7-10NESAME
SUN
02/01
8NNW131216DOWNLOW7-10ESAME
MON
02/02
6NNW11610DOWNLOW11-16SWUP
7N141216DOWNLOW
5SW612UPLOW
TUE
02/03
5N13610DOWNLOW17-21WUP
7WSW846UPLOW
WED
02/04
4N1268DOWNLOW17-21WSAME
8W968UPLOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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