PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 6 to 9 feet today. Surf will then increase to 25 to 32 feet on Wednesday. Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 6 feet today. Surf will then increase to 16 to 22 feet on Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet today and 2 to 4 feet Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less today and 1 to 3 feet Wednesday.

Outlook

Outlook through Tuesday January 24: another large west-northwest swell will spread down the island chain late tonight and Wednesday, bringing warning level surf to north and west facing shores on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This swell will gradually decline Thursday through Saturday. A front is expected to move down the island chain during the weekend, likely bringing strong northeasterly winds and large , short- period seas from the northeast that would produce rough, advisory level surf along east facing shores. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
01/13
8WNW201822UP4-6VRBSAME
2NNE1024DOWN
4E722UP
2SSW1324DOWN
SAT
01/14
9WNW161822DOWNHIGH4-6VRBSAME
4E712SAMELOW
1SSW1212DOWNLOW
SUN
01/15
5WNW13810DOWNMED7-10EUP
4E712SAMELOW
MON
01/16
5WNW11610SAMELOW7-10ESAME
4E712SAMELOW
TUE
01/17
4WNW1268DOWNLOW7-10ESAME
4E712SAMELOW
WED
01/18
9WNW171824UPLOW13-19EUP
6E724UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Steady w-component swell. Detailed: Mid Friday on west to northwest exposures has building breakers from 280-310 degrees at levels higher than the active season, September to may, north shore average for focused areas. Similar surf is predicted for Saturday. The northwest to central Pacific jet stream has returned to a more common January pattern with a track from Japan eastward to near Hawaii within 30-45°N after the early month hiatus near the Aleutians. This is giving more typical winter surf, which has a dominant WNW to NW component in January. See surf climatology link above. An area of low pressure gained hurricane-force status east of Japan 1/8. The low center was near 40°N and tracked steadily eastward. The winds and seas were highest to 40 feet in an area 2400 nm away on 1/10 over a 280-310 degree fetch. Those extreme winds generated the extra-long wave periods on Oahu 1/13. The pacioos/cdip buoy off Waimea 1/13 showed active swell in the 18-22 second bands. Breaker heights have climbed mid day to extra- large, which refers to surf high enough to break on certain deep outer reefs. Surf is still building. An event peak is expected within Friday evening to the wee hours Saturday. The low pressure occluded near the dateline on 1/11 then weakened as it tracked NE 1/11-12. Gales reached to near 1000 nm away mid 1/11. Only low surf is expected over the weekend from the 310-350 degree band. Nw Hawaii NOAA buoys 51101 and 51001 mid day 1/13 show energy elevated in the 16-21 second band. The moon phase is giving spring tides with a high tide pre-dawn Saturday 1/14. This should equate to above average coastal wave wash for areas that focus the WNW swell. Surf should remain above average through Saturday from 280-310 degrees. Swell from this direction on Oahu receives shadowing by Niihau and Kauai, which can make large gradients in surf size along any given westerly-exposed shoreline depending on degree of shadowing. The remote, broad source should keep the event long-lived. As the dominant wave period drops within 12-14 seconds Sunday, a second source should also add swell of lower wave periods late Sunday into Tuesday. The source for the reinforcement late Sunday to Tuesday is a string of low pressures with 30-35°N from 150-180°E. Strong to marginal gales between 25-30°N hold 1/12-14. This should keep surf a notch below average for Monday into Tuesday from 280-310 degrees with 10-14 second periods. One of those low pressures is expected to deepen as it races NE to the north of Hawaii Saturday 1/14. The short duration for the winds aimed at Hawaii should not add surf beyond small from 310-350 degrees 1/15-17. Models show a pattern 1/14-16 west of the dateline similar to the 1/8-11 source that produced the surf arriving 1/13. This new low pressure is just as broad, though maximum winds are expected to be less. The head of the fetch is predicted to reach the dateline Monday 1/16. The system is modelled to weaken as it drifts NE Tuesday 1/17. Surf from 280-310 degrees is expected to build Wednesday morning, growing above average Wednesday pm 1/18. It is predicted to peak early Thursday 1/19. Mid Friday on has breakers below average from 45-90 degrees. The NNE event from earlier this week has dropped below average and should fade out Saturday. Moderate trades east of 155°W to the east of Oahu should keep small breakers from trade windswell through the period. Models suggest an uptick to windswell and trades 1/18. Mid Friday on has declining surf from the southern hemisphere. This event out of 180-200 degrees should linger into Saturday then fade. Wave energy from the southern hemisphere should be back to the winter norm of mostly flat 1/15-18. Refracting and difracting WNW swell could bring some surf to select westerly exposures through the period. Into the long range, models show a 950 mb low pressure in the southern Tasman sea 1/14. This could give low, long-period swell locally centered 1/22 from 208-220 degrees. In the northern hemisphere, models suggest weaker low pressure areas west of the dateline 1/16-18 that should return waves from 280-315 degrees to low levels 1/21-23. Models suggest a front near Hawaii with a low pressure north of Hawaii 1/21 that could make a NNW average-sized event 1/22. A short-lived trade wind event 1/18-19 should not exceed the trade windswell average. Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Tuesday, January 16. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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