Outlook through Thursday October 15: a slightly larger reinforcement out of the northwest will arrive on Saturday and will continue through the middle of next week. Long period south and southwest swells will persist through the weekend with conditions rising to near advisory levels. A small westerly swell will linger through Friday with a small reinforcement arriving Saturday into next week. A tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days. If this occurs a building easterly swell will arrive as early as Tuesday. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Surf along north facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet tonight, lowering to 3 to 5 feet Friday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Friday. Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Friday. Surf along south facing shores will be 4 to 7 feet through Friday.
About Collaborative Surf
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
Collaborative Surf Discussion
Discussion: summary: Active from around the compass. Detailed: Mid Wednesday on northern shores has rising breakers from 345-010 degrees at 9-12 second periods. Shorter-period energy of 6-8 seconds is declining. The former should hold about the same into Thursday morning. A nearly stationary low pressure near 40°N, 150°W 10/3-5 aimed near gales towards the western side of the main Hawaiian islands. The pacioos/cdip nearshore buoy off Waimea, Oahu shows an upward trend 10/7 in the 8-12 second bands. This short- to moderate- period event will likely peak overnight into early Thursday at heights near the October average, then fall below average on Friday from the same direction. Models show a broad trough in the jet stream south of the central to eastern Aleutians 10/8-10. At the surface, a front backed by marginal gales is modelled to aim highest seas just east of Hawaii over the 335-350 degree band. Surf is expected to pick up locally Saturday morning, building to near the October average in the afternoon. It should hold about the same into Sunday, and drop below average from the same direction on Monday. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers for the northerly exposures with a trend as described above. For exposures to 50-90 degrees, surf is well below the trade windswell average. Hurricane Oho near 25°N, 145°W 10/7 is racing towards Canada. The fast pace limits surf potential. A small, short-period event is possible, picking up locally Thursday from 70-90 degrees and dropping Friday from 50-70 degrees at levels below the trade windswell average. The large jet level trough in the models for 10/8-10 would give way to a southward shift of the axis of surface high pressure. This would place Oahu between moderate breezes to the immediate south and light to gentle breezes to the immediate north. With the short fetch and low magnitude winds, windswell should remain well below average 10/9-12 with a direction as given by the winds in the table above. Mid Wednesday on southern shores has long-period swell from 180-200 degrees with breakers near to a notch above the March to October, seasonal average. Similar surf is likely for Thursday. Winter caliber low pressures spaced 1-2 days apart have filled the southern Tasman sea and the region S to SE of New Zealand starting 9/26. This is making for overlapping, long-period events locally that should continue off and on into the long range. The second in the series picked up locally Tuesday and is peaking Wednesday 10/7. The pacioos/cdip Barbers Point buoy off SW Oahu shows energy in the 14-22 second bands. Southern Hawaii NOAA buoy 51002 10/7 shows an upward trend in the 17-21 second band, reflecting the arrival of the next event, which can be seen in the charts as a batch of seas greater than 30 feet about 5000 nm S of Hawaii a week ago. This new event should keep surf similar on Thursday from a pinch more straight south 175-190 degrees. It should hold into Friday as a new event fills in. The southern Tasman had back to back low pressure systems 10/1-2. The first had seas over 30 feet and the second over 40 feet. This should bring long period swell within 14-22 seconds locally 10/9-11 from 208-220 degrees. The second Tasman low maintained seas over 40 feet as it passed S to SE of New Zealand 10/3 in an area about 5000 nm away. Long period swell from this system should overlap the Tasman energy, building late Friday, peaking Saturday and slowly dropping into Monday from 180-200 degrees. This event could be the largest of the series given the magnitude and location of the source. Wave models do not show any difference from the other events. Models can be wrong. Hawaii wave buoys 10/9-10 will be monitored closely for suggestions of larger surf. It should keep surf above the seasonal average for the weekend. Sw to W winds associated with low pressure troughs and the early stages of Choi-Wan from within 160°E to 170°W this week have added low, short- to moderate-period surf from 250-270 degrees. It can be seen in the barbers buoy in the 10-12 second band. It will likely hold for a few more days. As Choi-Wan intensified in the western Pacific, it generated long-period swell. Wave models predict low energy from 260-280 degrees in the Hawaiian islands this weekend. Into the long range, low pressure systems in the Tasman sea and S to SE of New Zealand continued 10/4-7, though were mostly weaker. Surf locally should drop a notch below average by 10/13. Hints of a notch upward for around 10/16-17 from SSW. In the northern hemisphere, typhoon Choi-Wan is tracking toward the Kuril Islands 10/7. It is modelled to bring a low, long- period WNW event locally starting 10/13 lasting a few days. Models suggest another NNW at levels below the October average locally 10/14-16. Windswell 10/13-15 is suggested to be near average from the NE. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, October 9. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to firstname.lastname@example.org or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Collaborative Surf Table Legend
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL