Pat Caldwell

Outlook
Outlook through Friday March 6: a moderate northwest swell will arrive abruptly Sunday night, peak Monday morning, and then subside gradually through Tuesday night. A small west-northwest to northwest swell is expected Tuesday night through Thursday. Otherwise, no significant swell is expected. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Hazards
No high surf advisory or warnings.
Forecast
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, and then 3 to 5 feet on Sunday. Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, and then 3 to 5 feet on Sunday. Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday.
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About Collaborative Surf
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
Collaborative Surf Discussion
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: Summary: mix of swell from around the compass. Detailed: mid Friday on northern shores has breakers well below the seasonal average with short wave periods of 8-12 seconds from within 270-030 degrees. Low, mixed-up surf is expected to continue on Saturday. The long-lived W to WNW episode is waning on Friday. The remnant upper level trough and associated surface low pressure area that originated off Japan weakened as it moved slowly east to the immediate NNW to N of Hawaii 2/25-27. Fresh to strong breezes on the NW side of the surface low is giving windswell from 330-360 degrees on Friday 2/27. This low surf should hold about the same Saturday and drop on Sunday as a longer-period event arrives. A low pressure formed near the dateline late Thursday and is occluding near 40°N, 170°W on Friday 2/27. A compact area of severe gales is modelled to have a captured fetch as the low center jogs SE, before becoming stationary 2/28. The head of the fetch is predicted to reach about 1000 nm away on 2/28. It is expected to weaken 3/1. Long-period forerunners are due locally before sundown on Sunday from 330-350 degrees. It should peak near dawn Monday at levels above the seasonal average. It should drop below average by Tuesday from the same direction, and continue a slow decline into Wednesday. A new low pressure formed near the Kurils islands on 2/26 and is tracking NNE 2/27. It is expected to turn more E 2/28, allowing a longer apparent fetch for the 310-320 degree band, reaching to about 2000 nm by 3/1 as it weakens. With the long travel distance, this episode should remain below the seasonal average, picking up locally Wednesday 3/4 from 310-320 degrees. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the unsettled weather pattern in the vicinity this period and explanations for the trends in the winds. Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers above the trade windswell average from 70-90 degrees. It is expected to slowly decline over the weekend. A tight pressure gradient between a large NE Pacific surface high pressure and a sub-tropical trough near 140°W set up a wide, long fetch of fresh to strong trades 2/24-26, at times, nosing into Hawaii. The dominant wave periods increased locally on 2/26, and are holding in the 8-12 second band on Friday from 70-90 degrees. It should keep surf near to above the trade windswell average on Saturday. The tail of the fetch was about 800 nm away as it weakened on Thursday, which should keep at least small breakers on Sunday from 70-90 degrees. A strong surface high pressure near the dateline and a weak surface low pressure trough over to north of Hawaii are modelled to shift eastward. This should give more northerly component winds locally and an increase in windswell from 20-50 degrees Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for specifics on local winds and windswell for Tuesday to Wednesday. Presently, weather models are mixed on the solution. Mid Friday on southern shores has small breakers from short-period energy from the east and west. The west component should fade out Friday 2/27, though the east component should continue on Saturday. A broad, storm-force system SE of Easter Island 2/22-25 has low odds for angular spreading to give inconsistent, small, long-period breakers late Monday into Wednesday from 160-170 degrees. Into the long range, no surf is expected from the southern hemisphere 3/5-7. Below average NW to N, short- to moderate-period surf should likely hold 3/5-6 with a downward trend. Jet level ridging over the central north Pacific NNW to N Hawaii 3/5-7 should correspond to a large surface high pressure, that could bring above average windswell from within 40-90 degrees Thursday into the weekend 3/5-7. Long range forecast are subject to major revisions. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, March 2. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
Collaborative Surf Table
FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
02/27
3WNW1035DOWN7-10VRBSAME
3NNW1035UP
5E957SAME
SAT
02/28
3NNW1035SAMELOW11-16NEUP
4E935DOWNMED
SUN
03/01
3NNW1746UPLOW13-19NEUP
6NNE623UPLOW
3E924DOWNLOW
MON
03/02
7NNW141216DOWNLOW17-21NESAME
7NE734UPLOW
1SSE1823UPLOW
TUE
03/03
4NNW1268DOWNLOW13-19NEDOWN
7NE734DOWNLOW
1SSE1623SAMELOW
WED
03/04
3NW1546UPLOW13-19ENESAME
3NNW1035DOWNLOW
7ENE724SAMELOW
Disclaimer
Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
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NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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