PAT CALDWELL

Hazards

No high surf advisory or warnings.

Forecast

Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday. Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet through Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet through Sunday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Sunday.

Outlook

Outlook through Saturday October 08: rough surf will continue along east facing shores into Monday before easing in response to weakening trade winds Tuesday through much of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, small surf will be expected with mostly small background southerly swells continuing. A moderate northwest swell will be possible next weekend. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

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GIBBS

About Collaborative Surf

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

Collaborative Surf Table

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
09/30
7ENE734UP17-21ENESAME
2SSE1524SAME
SAT
10/01
7ENE846UPLOW17-21ENESAME
2SSE1423DOWNLOW
SUN
10/02
8ENE846SAMELOW17-21ESAME
MON
10/03
8ENE846SAMELOW13-19ESESAME
TUE
10/04
2NNW1124UPLOW11-16ESEDOWN
5ENE824DOWNLOW
WED
10/05
2NNW1024DOWNLOW7-10ESEDOWN
4ENE824SAMELOW
2S1624UPLOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

Discussion: summary: Trade windswell topping the heights. Detailed: Mid Friday on southern shores has long-period surf from 160-180 degrees at 14-16 second intervals. Heights are expected to decline on Saturday. Low pressure areas in the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere have been forming due south of Hawaii near the antarctic ice sheet and tracking ENE, sending highest waves toward the Americas. This pattern is expected to hold into next week with a series of below average, short-lived events. The local surf 9/30 was one of those systems SSE of Tahiti 9/21-23. Noaa southern buoys 51003 and 51004 9/30 show higher swell energy to the eastern side of the Hawaiian archipelago. Low swell energy has remained about the same over the past 36 hours. This event should last another day, then drop on Sunday from 160-180 degrees. The next source of 9/24-26 was weaker than the 9/21-23 source. This weak event due Tuesday 10/4, but likely hardly noticeable. The following event of 9/27-28 was stronger. It should arrive starting Wednesday 10/5 from 170-190 degrees similar in size and direction to the event locally of 9/29-30. Mid Friday on eastern shores has short-period breakers from 30-90 degrees. Heights are slowly trending up. See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the local winds. Surface high pressure near 45°N, 150°W is shifting south though weakening. The net result should be winds near the same hovering around the fresh mark through the weekend. Some enhancement of trades on the north side of the remnant of Ulika to the east of Hawaii 9/30-10/1 should aid in keeping breakers a notch above average into Monday from 50-90 degrees. Surf is expected to trend down Tuesday into Wednesday. Mid Friday on northern shores has tiny to small breakers for exposures to the trade windswell. Similar surf is likely for Saturday. Mid latitude low pressure areas in the north Pacific have been weak. Surf has been below average coming up on two weeks straight. The low spell is expected to last into next week. A weak low pressure near the dateline just south of the Aleutians 9/29-30 had fresh to strong winds, with small pockets to marginal gales, aimed at Hawaii beyond 1800 nm away. Tiny to small surf from 330-350 degrees is expected locally Tuesday into Wednesday 10/4-5. Into the long range, models suggest a severe gale in the NW Pacific 10/4-6 that could bring surf up locally above the early fall season average by 10/8 from 310-330 degrees. In the southern hemisphere, another system near Antarctica 9/30 at 160°W is modelled to intensify as it tracks ENE. It could bring a small, long-period, S to SSE swell locally for 10/9-10. Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, October 3. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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NWS FORECASTER AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

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