Surf Summary & News Breaks sponsored by the VANS Triple Crown of Surfing
Your exclusive SNN Observations for Thursday 12/5/13
Clear, cool painted skies. Light ESE winds; most all shorelines will get onshore seabreeze mush from about midday.
NORTH: Up and rising on the 13 second NW at 4-6' (up to double overhead) and super light clean straight offshores now but likely seabreeze onshore mush later. West: Makaha Up and rising the NW and hinting of a SSW at 2-4' sets and glassy smooth early; later its variable bumpiness.Town Side: Ala Moana, Kaisers, Kewalos are holding 0-1 barely 2' on a 13 sec SSW; ocean is smooth. Diamond Head: Holding at 0-1 barely 2' with lite bumpiness crumble and even more onshores later. SANDYS: Down a pinch from the East swell and pinch of S at 1-2 occ 3' with good smooth water w just a light breeze for now. Half Point to the shorepound and good sand bars. East: Makapu'u: Down just a hair and holding on the E swell at 2-3' on the left; nice lines.
The Pipe Masters starts Sunday Dec 8-20 for the World Title Throw Down, Show Down! The forecast say GO on day one of the holding period with a 6-8' NNW at 14 seconds. Go HERE
Call the official SNN hotline 808-596-SURF daily to get status (on, off or standby).
Details on the Vans Triple Crown. GO HERE
Go HERE for the full VTC schedule.
Congrats to Zeke Lau - Winner of the Vans World Cup of Surfing at Sunset Beach!
Congratulations to Michel Bourez - winner of the Reef Hawaiian Pro at Ali'i Beach.
Quote of the week: "Surfing was the key to his life" Kaipo on Buttons
Makapu'u at 630am with some occas near 4' sets on a new healthy East swell. Thnks Smiley!
THE LATEST IN DEPTH VIDEO PRESENTATION OF HAWAII'S WAVES,WINDS & WEATHER FROM SURF NEWS NETWORK & SPONSORED BY HAWAIIAN SOUTH SHORE
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Dec 05, 2013 4:00 AM HST
A ridge near the islands will maintain gentle winds and mostly dry weather over the smaller islands through Saturday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will bring some showers to the windward side of the Big Island this morning, and the trailing end of a front may bring showers to Kauai Friday and Saturday. Ridging aloft will keep the atmosphere stable so rainfall amounts will remain modest through Saturday. The weather may turn wetter on Sunday, especially on the Big Island, as deeper moisture moves over the islands from the southeast.
Surface analyses show a surface high far north northeast of the islands with a ridge extending southwest to a col, or neutral point, about 150 miles northwest of Kauai. The ridge will produce gentle to fresh east winds near the Big Island and light to moderate east southeast winds over the rest of the islands. A band of low clouds moving over the Big Island from the east has produced only scattered light showers and the weather has been mostly dry elsewhere. Clouds and showers over windward area will decrease by this afternoon while clouds and isolated showers develop over interior areas.
The global models are in reasonable agreement through the weekend, showing the trailing end of a front weakening to a shear line as it moves southeast over Kauai on Friday. The shear line will bring moderate trade winds and an increase in showers around Kauai Friday through Saturday morning and it is possible some of the showers could spread to Oahu Friday night. The showers will move off to the northwest on Saturday as the subtropical ridge moves south near the islands and our winds shift out of the southeast.
As the winds shift out of the southeast, an area of moisture associated with a low aloft will spread toward the islands from the southeast. Clouds and showers on the Big Island are expected to increase starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. Some of the clouds and showers may spread to the other islands but details remain uncertain.
Pacioos buoys showed a northwest swell peaking at 6 ft near Kauai at midnight, and on Oahu around 200 am. Surf should remain below the advisory threshold. The wavewatch iii model still shows multiple moderate-sized west northwest through north northwest swells over the weekend. The wavewatch model has not been very consistent with these swells. Latest run of the model shows the biggest swells coming from the north northwest starting Saturday, peaking below the advisory threshold Sunday through Monday, and gradually subsiding through mid-week.
Surf along east shores will remain a bit elevated today, then subside as trade-wind speeds upstream decrease.
The small surf on the south shores will get even smaller through Saturday. A new south swell is expected to arrive Sunday and build into Monday.
A surface ridge will remain near the area through early next week producing moderate to fresh east winds around the Big Island and light to moderate southeast winds elsewhere. An approaching shear line may boost winds to fresh levels near Kauai Friday night.
BIG SURF PICTURE BIG Black Friday 11/29/13
NPAC The Jet Stream is solidifying off Japan with a NNE tilt. It dips sharply on the dateline all the way to our North leading to the drop in trades and SE winds, the front, the BIG NW etc...The Low has pushed the High to the east and its now centered between us and the west coast. The jet keeps up its extension off Japan and drops further over the next 5 days. However, no big Lows of interest are being shaped. The Long range shows better bigger potential around Dec 5-6th.
Wind and weather: Winds veered to the southeast and then south with more of the same seabreezy pattern today and fresh S winds Saturday ahead of the front. The old frontal boundary arriving tonight but we dont know how far down the chain it'll go. Details HERE.
Currently: NW waves are bombing and may have peaked. Still towing and Waimea have action with surf up to 15' local scale or 25' faces. Buoys show 12' 16 seconds. Source as broad complex Low Wed 11/27 tracking east to the dateline and beyond as she intenifies with 30-35' seas and garnering close, strong fetch. So we'll be Thankful for more than just Turkey and stuffing on Thursday- Friday.
Next: Slight chance of a 3-6' NW Swell with 12 seconds filling Wednesday afternoon to 4' then peak Thursday Dec 5th at near dbl overhead at Sunset. The Low pops near the dateline Monday and tracks ESE with a partially captured fetch so the event should last a few days.
Next: Another more powerful Low spawns even further east of the dateline than the last storm. Nearby gale systems has shorter periods and more frequent sets. The fetch noses just 600 miles to our NNW by Friday Dec 6th. We should get some advsry level NW to NNW surf outta this; rising fast midday Monday 12/19 to 4-7' and peaking at nite with some fading 8-12' NW surf Tuesday morning.
Last: no swells showing after the last one. We need to wait 1-2 days.
Pat Caldwell keeps the data from our OBS and the results are in...."FOR COUNTS OF DAYS IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WITH HEAD HIGH OR LESS SURF SINCE 1968...1994 HAD THE MOST WITH 19 DAYS. THE AVERAGE OVER ALL YEARS IS 5 DAYS. THE PREVIOUS 2 YEARS...2011-12...HAD 10 AND 11 DAYS RESPECTIVELY. THIS YEAR COULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE YEARS".
The Jet actually took a nice NNE track up toward HI Monday the 25th and supported a Low to follow the same track. The 15 second SSW from this source will only reach 2' and maybe near 3' filling Tuesday and peaking Wednesday on the 4th of December. See below.
Current: buoys show the NW swell at 17 seconds but there's no wrap yet if at all on this one. It's just background waist high or barely 2'.
Next: models show new close interval SSE, onshore choppy windswell Saturday to chest high due to the frontal boundry to the N.
Next: The tiny background 2' SSW fills Tuesday Dec 3 from a gale Low tracking NE this past Monday-Tuesday. No big deal but it does keep town rideable in Dec.
LAst: long range model fantasy hint of a better 15 second SSW swell filling Monday the 9th. It could get solid 2-3' for 2 days. A Low comes up ENE off the NZL east coast monday Dec 2nd. This is an 'out of season' swell we'd be happy with even during the Summer. Lets wait and see if models and actual winds confirm this Monday.
East Shores: Tiny N wrap and tiny Windswell at 2+'...no pure trade swell till mid week next week. The Storms passing close to HI are disrupting the usual ongoing trade regime.
Tropical: No storms. Thnk God.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|