Surf Summary & News Breaks sponsored by the VANS Triple Crown of Surfing
Your exclusive SNN Observations for Wednesday 12/11/13 at 640am
The Pipe Masters OFF for today. The World Title & Triple Crown Throw Down, Show Down will be Saturday. Go HERE
Call the official SNN hotline 808-596-SURF daily to get status (on, off or standby).
Clear along leeward with the usual trade wind cloud distribution along windward and maukas; ENE trades are back 10-25. NW and SSW's swells down. High tide 1130 at 1.2' dropping out all day to a minus low at 7pm.
NORTH: Down and dropping on WNW/N showing 2-3 maybe 4' for top spots like Sunset pt at 13 seconds. Pipe about 2-3' and with smooth & clean conditions. West: Makaha down and dropping on NW and hint of occas SSW at 1-2+ with clean smooth lite offshores. Town Side: Ala Moana, Kaisers, Kewalos are down and dropping on a the S at 1-2' now and still clean; Diamond Head: Down and dropping on a S 1-2.5' with moderate sideshore chop. SANDYS: Down and holding on S and Holding north wrap and the East swell and at 1-2' maybe occas +?' with fair conditions & 10-20 side winds. Waves all the way from Half Point to the shorepound with fun sand bars. East: Makapu'u: Holding on north wrap and bigger East swell now at 2-3' on the left mostly with smaller ones on the right w/ nice lines and 10-20 onshores!
Congrats to Zeke Lau - Winner of the Vans World Cup of Surfing at Sunset Beach!
Congratulations to Michel Bourez - winner of the Reef Hawaiian Pro at Ali'i Beach.
Quote of the week: "“I’m feeling pretty relaxed, but I’m sure as the event starts the reality will set in” Slater
THE WHERE, WHEN & WHY OF HAWAII’S WAVES & WEATHER: A VIDEO PRESENTATION BY SNN
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Issued: Dec 11, 2013 4:00 AM HST
Moderate trade winds will diminish gradually and become southeasterly into the weekend. Light windward showers will give way to afternoon cloud buildups and evening clearing. A cold low in the middle atmosphere, together with a front approaching from the northwest, will bring heavier rain, and a Risk of thunderstorms, from Sunday through the first half of next week.
Surface observations around the main Hawaiian islands still reported trade winds strong enough to require a small craft advisory for the typical areas around the Big Island. Slightly drier air moved over the state from the northeast, and subsidence from deep ridging overhead and to the northeast compressed the surface mixed layer, but light showers managed to squeeze out a few drops along windward slopes anyway. Continued drying and subsidence through the next 24 hours should limit further shower activity.
Otherwise, guidance predicted only gradual changes through about Friday. Consensus showed the mid-level ridge overhead weakening and moving away to the northeast, and a trough aloft deepening toward the state from the northwest. At the same time, the surface ridge will weaken and shift south over the islands, while a front approaches from the northwest.
This scenario has played out several times already this fall, and most practical effects this time likely will not differ much from the basic pattern. Prevailing surface winds will diminish and turn more southerly, ultimately drawing up increasing moisture from the deep tropics. Volcanic haze from Kilauea again will reach the smaller islands. With prevailing winds light, diurnal circulations will become increasingly important. All of these changes should be in place by around Saturday.
Consensus still depicted the cold pool accompanying the mid-level trough as unusually frigid. By Sunday, temperatures at 500 mb over Kauai could drop to -15 celsius, well below the typical threshold of -10 celsius often used as a benchmark value for thunderstorm development in Hawaii. The core of the low could bring temperatures approaching -20 celsius to the middle of the state by Tuesday night. With moisture streaming in from the deep tropics, and a front not too far to the northwest providing forcing, the potential for deep convection was substantial. Local algorithms based on model output suggested that thunderstorms could continue to develop into the middle of next week.
That said, the time in question was late enough in the forecast period to suggest a bit of caution. In particular, recent solutions diverged with respect to the development of this trough aloft. For example, the 06Z GFS run predicted a more easterly track, which would take the core of the cold pool, and thus the instability, east of the islands. For now, the official forecast of somewhat increased shower activity and a slight chance of thunderstorms around early next week represented a reasonable compromise.
In any case, the front, or its remnants, will move southeast across the state from Sunday into Monday, spreading rain to about Maui county. Much of this precipitation will take the form of heavy showers from deep convection, but stratus rain is likely too.
Trade-wind conditions will return gradually over the second half of next week as the low aloft moves off to the northeast. However, the accumulated moisture and volcanic haze will take longer to clear out.
Mixed wnw/nnw swell will produce 6-10 ft surf along north-facing shores through today. A gradual easing trend will follow through early Friday before another large NW swell builds rapidly, possibly reaching advisory levels around 15-18 ft by sunrise Saturday. Also a small out-of-season south swell will produce modest surf along south-facing beaches through Thursday.
Breezy trades will require a small craft advisory for the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island through this afternoon.
BIG SURF PICTURE Wednesday 12/11/13
NPAC Today The Jet is weak and quite for a few days with a loop up and over Hawaii 1200 miles North. Then the Tokyo Express begins taking off from Thursday on. As the Jet Stream drops and deepens it gets elongated off Japan to the dateline. This long range trend will lead to above average WNW swells from about mid December to Christmas. A High sticks around to our ENE. But lotsa troughiness continues over the Islands leading to unstable weather off and on. A typical winter.
Wind and weather: Clear and Stable now but a front approaching from the northwest end of the week changes things. So Locally moderate to fresh trade winds will continue through Wednesday then Winds will turn east-southeast Friday into Saturday as a convective pattern returns our late morning seabreezes. Details HERE.
Currently: A dropping 4-6+' WNW mixed with a smaller NNW with ENE trades lead to a great day of comp for the Pipe Masters. Now its just 2-4' max. These swells came from a Low that got close to HI late last week. The Low shifted and had 30' seas out west and sent some more our way. There was also another Low near the dateline Saturday which moved ENE and got close again. This one gave us great reinforement Tuesday to easy 6'.
Next: A big one is on the way. A bigger more powerful storm forms our side of the dateline Wednesday peaking with 55kts and 30' seas. It tracks ESE with a captured fetch and gets within 1000 miles away. WW3 predicts 11' swell at 14 seconds. We're claiming 8-12' from the WNW peaking Saturday then veering NW Sunday as it fades to below 10'...the winds and weather put an 'iffy' on condtions late morning into afternoon.
Last: Models show a broad big Low forming off Japan Monday. Its intensifies and tracks our way covering 1/2 the West Pac Tuesday-Wednesday. 'If' this thing pans out it could produce 'Eddie Aikau' level WNW swell. Shadowing (up to 294 degrees) could be a factor due to this extreme west angle. One way or another we're in for a long lasting spell of very large surf by 12/21 Saturday.
SPAC Current: a fading 1-2' S to SSW filled Monday and peaked 3' Tuesday. A wide storm far SE of NZL early Dec sending most the swell to our SE but still we did see some fun surf.
LAst: A taz sea swell could show up Wednesday or thursday 12/18-19 as model show activity. But no more then 2' SW.
We go into a flat zone before Christmas.
East Shores: pure upstream 3' trade swell with N mix. The Storms passing close to HI are disrupting the usual ongoing trade regime. But the High to the NE is still producing from a distance waves up to 1-3'. This eases this weekend due to the front.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|