Waves, Winds, Weather compliments of Cholos HomeStyle
Light trade winds making for super clean surf this morning. Building NE trades and sunny skies island wide. Tiny NW and SSW swell.
Quote of the decade "It's a cakewalk" Gerry Lopez on getting shacked at Pipe back in the 70's. It comes from the film Super Session and he told Hal Jepsen who was filming that after you make the bottom turn "it's a cakewalk..." Thanks to Scott Valor to help me recall the details.
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THE WHERE, WHEN & WHY OF HAWAII’S WAVES & WEATHER: A VIDEO PRESENTATION BY SNN
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Mar 11, 2014 3:54 AM HST
Trade winds will increase across the state this week with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. A cold front will reach the islands Friday night, bringing strong, gusty trade winds through the weekend.
Showers have diminished across the state overnight with a batch of heavy rain departing south of Big Island waters early this morning. Dew points across the state have dropped 3-5 degrees since yesterday morning and all indicators point to a drier weather regime over the next few days.
A front stalled north of Kauai will keep winds light to moderate today. Partly cloudy skies will pepper the islands with limited showers popping up along the windward slopes. The front will dissipate today allowing high pressure to build from the north. Trade winds will increase through midweek in response to the building high pressure.
A progressive pattern will push weather features quickly from west to east through the forecast period. The current high pressure will move into the east Pacific Wednesday as a cold front pushes across the dateline behind the high. The tail end of the front is forecast to reach Kauai Friday evening bringing showers to the smaller islands Friday night. Strong trade winds will fill in behind the front bringing gusty winds and fast moving showers. Windward areas will be the main focus of rain, but the smaller islands will see showers blow over the mountains to leeward locations at times. The mid and upper atmosphere look to remain stable through the period so showers that do form will remain shallow.
Strong trade winds will diminish next week as the high pressure generating the winds moves into the east Pacific and another cold front crosses the dateline.
Weak trade winds across the Big Island will spread across the remainder of the state by afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated MVFR conds can be expected across eastern and northeastern slopes but high VFR expected all other areas. Airmet sierra for mountain obscuration over windward Big Island will likely be cancelled after sunrise but conditions could redevelop this evening.
Trade winds will approach small craft advisory levels Wednesday in the typical windier waters around Maui county. Winds will strengthen further Friday and over the weekend with the possibility of gales in the Alenuihaha channel. A SCA is likely across the Hawaiian waters.
BIG SURF PICTURE 3/11/14 Tuesday update
The Jet is still rockin; its Low and consolidated with 180+ kts and most of its deep troughing is occuring from off Japan with a slight NNE tilt reaching just to our North. To our East to the west coast a blocking High is set up. By Thursday the Jet is breaking up off Japan and with a weaker flow from east of the dateline and half by to the west coast. There's a dip to our NE creating the hefty NE swell coming. By Friday a new BIG High is building out to our west bouncing the Jet up and then down toward us leading to gale force NE trades. That High is over us into next week as signs of a normal March come into view. TheJet still has plenty energy tho' for some smaller NW swell.
Currently, remant tiny 2.5' NNW swell today with nice lite trades and clean sunny surf. Nothing like its near 15' peak this past weekend. Source: a complex array of Lows form, built and merged Thursday the 6th crossing the dateline nosing to within 600 miles by Friday. This one had a captured fetch as it tracked SE with 32' seas right toward Hawaii. We saw some 12' 15 second NW swells breaking on outer reefs.
Next: This past weekend an ENE tracking strong to near hurricane force 45-65kt Low is in view crossing the dateline. Most the energy will be sent off to our NE but some 4-6' Sideband NW swell with long 16-20sec filling Tuesday. This pulse comes from the early phase of the Low and is harder to predict as its not a direct hit.
Next: the above system garnered the highest winds on its SW flank Sunday-Monday and this fetch should bring bigger 6-8' NNW surf Wednesday with 14 sec.
Next: a new storm spawns off Japan Monday and should have some hurricane force 65kts at its center with 45kts on its SW flank in the 300-320 band for some above advsry WNW swell. Some of these winds are 'captured' as the system moves east. Lets claim 8-12' surf Friday afternoon at 15 sec with some higher sets into Saturday morning. (just below warning levels of 15').
Next: a strong High is building and crossing the dateline and squeezing the above Low in the Aleutians. Gales come to under 600 miles off Friday. So we'll see high NE winds and swell mixing with the NW creating victory at sea surf tho' most the NW swell will cover up the NE wrap.
Last: model show a 55kt low off N Japan this Friday to the Aleutians by Sunday. Surf from this source should fill late tuesday the 18th peaking surf at 6-8' Wednesday with 16 seconds.
Long range forecasts love to fantasize. Meaning they run 'hot' making promises they cant always keep.
The Jet pattern down under is mostly weak and zonal for several days but does start a ENE to NNE flow this weekend enhancing a broad system which should lead to SSW swells in the long range. She break apart next week so we'll once again hit a quite period.
Currently:We have a declining SSW at 1-2.5'...source: storminess east of NZL last week intensifying into Thursday but weakened fast. Still, she hangs out for awhile and is further N than the last storm thus we claim some 15 second, 1-3' SSW surf filling late Tuesday into Wednesday the 11-12th.
NExt: A NE tracking Low spawns SE of NZL Tuesday the 11th with 25-30' seas. She weakens by Wednesday but is fairly broad. We'll go with 1-2.5' surf at 14 seconds from the SSW filling Tuesday the 18th peaking Wednesday at 2-3' surf at 16 seconds and holding into Thursday... lasting a long time thnks to the long reinforcing fetches.
Last: A big Low far to the SE of NZL is seen tracking ENE by strongest Friday the 14th and weakening Sunday. Still, the broad fetch should push up some surf in the 2-3' range late thursday the 20th with long 18 sec forerunners. The peak should be Friday-Saturday at maybe 1' overhead for top spots top sets.
The Windward side see’s tiny 2’ wind swell but for the first time in ages we will see tons of High wind and NE swell starting Friday into next week as a new High comes in from the west and dominating at advsry levels for about a week. The direction will veer from NNE to ENE.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|