Waves, Winds, Weather compliments of NS Lifeguards at Surfer, the Bar Wednesday.
Your exclusive Observations for Easter Tuesday April 22 at 630am update
Fairly Cloudy (75% leeward and Windward) and another windy ENE Trade day filling 15-30mph. High Surf for East and Small Craft Advrys up for all waters. Minus Low at 530am pushes to a Small 0.7 High tide 1130am dropping out to 0.2 at 430pm.
John John Florence on his perfect 10 from Sunday's heat in the 4th round.Quote of the Week...."it was scary to come up against those Kelly (Slater) and Gabriel (Medina),” “I got that first wave and forgot about the nerves. I took off, I saw the section coming and just flew to the air, the wind caught and spun me around perfectly".
THE WHERE, WHEN & WHY OF HAWAII’S WAVES & WEATHER: A VIDEO PRESENTATION BY SNN
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Apr 21, 2014 3:39 AM HST
Strong high pressure to the north of the state will create locally windy trades today. The strong trades will continue to blow passing windward and mauka showers over into leeward areas at times today into tonight. The trades will gradually ease Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure moves further away from the state. Drier air and fewer showers are expected from Tuesday through the rest of the work week.
Radar loops show an active shower pattern continuing across windward portions of the state during the night, with some shower activity spilling over into leeward sections of Oahu, Kauai and Molokai. Rain gauges report light to locally moderate accumulations as the showers are moving quickly within rather brisk trade wind flow. The 12Z soundings show weak inversions based from around 6500 feet at Lihue up to 9000 feet at Hilo. As has been the case for the past couple of days, abundant mid/high level cloudiness continues to stream northward across the state, to the east of a stationary mid/upper level trough centered several hundred miles to the southwest. At the surface, a 1032 mb high is centered about 1050 miles due north of the Big Island, and continues to move eastward.
The main forecast issue remains gusty and locally advisory level winds across some downslope and exposed headland/ridge areas. In addition to Kamuela which has reported sustained winds of 30 mph or greater off and on for the past 12 hours or so, a few other mesonet sites on Oahu, Lanai and Kahoolawe have reported peak wind gusts at or just below 50 mph as well. Model guidance, including the high resolution university of Hawaii WRF model, does still indicate boundary layer winds peaking today, with 925 mb winds reaching 35 knots or greater in some areas. Model soundings also show some lowering and strengthening of the inversion during this time, although this seems somewhat questionable given the weak inversions observed by the 12Z soundings. Will leave the wind advisory in place for today with no coverage changes, although it seems likely that the strongest wind gusts of 50 mph or greater will remain fairly isolated. It should be reiterated that the strongest winds will not affect entire forecast zones, but instead only specific favored areas immediately downslope of the smaller mountain ranges and over some ridges and headlands.
The trades should gradually relax to more moderate levels Tuesday through Wednesday as the surface high moves further northeast and away from the state. Another weaker high will build to the north of our area Wednesday through Thursday, but would not expect any significant wind problems. A static pattern will then develop across the central Pacific for the late week into the weekend, with an east-west high pressure ridge north of the state and moderate trades prevailing across Hawaii.
As for rain chances, the area of higher moisture currently across Hawaii is forecast to shift west of the state by late tonight or Tuesday morning, with a drier airmass then prevailing through the rest of the week. Therefore would expect another 24 hours or so of a more active windward/mauka shower pattern with some leeward spillover. Followed by more limited shower coverage focusing on windward and mauka areas thereafter.
The small craft advisory has been extended through 6 am Tuesday morning for all Hawaiian coastal waters. The overnight ascat pass missed the coastal waters, but available land obs and model data including the uh-wrf suggest that winds are likely around 25 knots across at least parts of most zones. Winds are forecast to peak just below 30 knots in the Alenuihaha channel today. Winds should slowly subside Tuesday through Wednesday.
The latest wavewatch data continues to show building short period easterly swell for today, which makes sense as the fetch length into Hawaii increases due to the movement of the strong high to our north. A high surf advisory for east facing shores remains in effect through Tuesday. No problems through the week for the other shores, with small northwest swell through Tuesday. The next moderate northwest swell will arrive Wednesday and continue through Friday, but the resulting surf on north/west facing shores will remain well below advisory levels.
Wind advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Waianae coast, Oahu Koolau, olomana, Waianae mountains, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Maui windward west, Maui leeward west, Maui central valley, south Big Island, Big Island north and east, Kohala, Big Island interior.
High surf advisory until 6 pm HST Tuesday for Kauai windward, Oahu Koolau, olomana, Molokai windward, Maui windward west, windward Haleakala, south Big Island, Big Island north and east.
Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian waters.
BIG SURF PICTURE 4/12/14 Saturday update
The Jet has a 150mph trough inbetween Japan and HI at 30-40N latitude or 600-1200 miles north of us. There's lotsa of broad weak Jet winds from the dateline to over Hawaii thus the wetter weather. A strong High bounces the Jet up and over HI Sunday into next week. Also a new trough moves our way of Japan again Monday allowing for slight potential for continued storm development. By Friday the 18th its very weak tho' extended across the NPAC to the west coast. Hinting of a long term quite period.
Currently, we have a nice sized high surf advsry level 15 second NW reaching heights of solid 8' or triple overhead for Pipe and Sunset. Winds are NE sideshore but hey its got power. The source of Saturday's peaking event was a broad gale near the Kurils last Sunday moving east making for 28' seas. This swell will drop a lot to about 3-4' maybe 5' Sunday morning.
Next: A Low pops on the charts Friday 4/11 near the Kurils Is again but this ones smaller and farther away (2200 miles). Winds are stronger but wont make up for the afore mentioned factors. She'll build Wed nite the 16th peaking 5-7' Thursday from the WNW.
Last: The Jet goes zonal mid April with quick eastbound Lows bring short lived smaller spring like/small NNW surf next Saturday. Keep you posted. Better shot of NW possible on Thursday the 24th.
Long range models love to fantasize. Meaning they run 'hot' making promises they can't always keep.
SPAC: The Jet is weak and zonal or west to east from Sat to Wed. the 16th when a weak NE flow shows esp by Friday-Sunday. The main push for swell will move out of our window.
Currently: Distant past sources make for background 14 seconds with just 1' swell...this leads to 2' surf for most spots thru next weekend. Below average.
Next: If long range outlook stands the test of time we'll get a 2' SSW Thursday the 24th from a marginal NE bound Low Thursday the 17th.
Last: Friday the 18th shows a large Low far south of Tahiti ramping to 35' seas by Saturday as it tracks ENE out of our window; maybe some long period 2-3' sideband SSE surf Saturday the 26th.
The Windward side see’s small 2' ENE wind swell at 8 seconds ramping to 2-4' this weekend esp Sunday into Monday the 14th from increasing trades from the building strong High. Chance of high surf advsy surf. Model hint of Trade fetch weakening Tuesday thus a weakeing windwave swell esp by Wednesday. Typical spring.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|