Waves, Winds, Weather compliments of Cholos HomeStyle
Your exclusive Observations for this Wednesday, March 12th at 645am
Chilly, Light NE trade winds early making for super clean surf this morning esp along leeward shores. Building 10-20 NE trades and sunny skies island wide. Nice moderate NNW and small SSW swells.
Quote of the decade "It's a cakewalk" Gerry Lopez on getting shacked at Pipe back in the 70's. It comes from the film Super Session and he told Hal Jepsen who was filming that after you make the bottom turn "it's a cakewalk..." Thanks to Scott Valor to help me recall the details.
Click the Poster to hit up Surfer, the Bar FB page!
THE WHERE, WHEN & WHY OF HAWAII’S WAVES & WEATHER: A VIDEO PRESENTATION BY SNN
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Mar 12, 2014 4:00 AM HST
High pressure north of the islands is moving to the northeast. An associated building ridge north of the islands will bring moderate trade winds to the islands through Thursday, along with showers over mainly windward and mauka areas. A front approaching from the northwest Friday night and Saturday will bring additional showers to the islands. Strong and gusty trade winds are expected behind the front through the weekend, diminishing back to moderate levels by the middle of next week.
Radar continues to show just a few showers over the islands overnight, while satellite shows some showery low clouds upstream of Maui and the Big Island. These clouds are shallow, and the overnight sounding from Hilo shows precipitable water values of just over an inch. Have knocked back the pops for this morning across the islands, but the chance for rain is just a little higher over Maui and the Big Island this morning.
A 1026 mb high was analyzed northeast of the islands at 2 am, with a ridge building north of the islands. Most reporting sites at the lower elevations of Kauai and Oahu overnight had light winds, with moderate trades being reporting elsewhere. The models are in good agreement with the high slowly sinking to the south over the next day. An ascat pass over the islands just before 10 pm shows 20 kt winds over the Alenuihaha channel, and over the Pailolo channel. So despite the light winds over the lower elevations of Kauai and Oahu, we are seeing winds on the increase in response to the ridge to the north. Expect winds to pick up to more consistent moderate trades across the state today. These moderate trades are then expected to continue through Thursday.
As we head into Friday, the models are in good agreement with a front approaching the islands from the northwest. At this time none of the models show a definitive wind shift, so believe the front will weaken to more of a shearline by the time it reaches the islands Friday night. Limited moisture is expected to arrive with the front/shearline, but expect showers to expand from windward and mauka areas to include other areas of the islands Friday night and Saturday.
Behind the front comes the main forecast challenge for the period. The models are in good agreement with a 1037 mb high moving northwest of the islands Friday night. The tightening of the pressure gradient between the front/shearline and the high will bring strong and gusty winds to the islands for the weekend. By Saturday morning it appears the winds will have reached Kauai and Oahu, and spread to Maui county and the Big Island by Saturday night. The models have been consistent in bringing in this event, and if it pans out, wind advisories will be possible for some areas of the lower elevations.
The high pressure moves to the east, being north of the islands Sunday morning, and then starts lifting to the northeast through Monday night when it becomes nearly stationary. Monday as the high moves to the northeast it also is expected to weaken, so expect trades to back off to moderate levels.
The current moderate northwest swell is expected to peak today just below advisory levels, and then gradually subside tonight through Friday morning. A new slightly larger northwest swell is due in Friday, peaking Friday night or Saturday at advisory levels.
With moderate trades expected today, and winds already at 20 knots over the Alenuihaha channel overnight, a small craft advisory /sca/ will begin at 9 am. As winds increase behind the front this weekend, fully expect many other areas to meet SCA conditions, with some areas possibly reaching gale force.
A short period trade wind swell is likely as the trades increase this weekend that will likely produce advisory level surf for east facing shores.
BIG SURF PICTURE 3/11/14 Tuesday update
The Jet is still rockin; its Low and consolidated with 180+ kts and most of its deep troughing is occuring from off Japan with a slight NNE tilt reaching just to our North. To our East to the west coast a blocking High is set up. By Thursday the Jet is breaking up off Japan and with a weaker flow from east of the dateline and half by to the west coast. There's a dip to our NE creating the hefty NE swell coming. By Friday a new BIG High is building out to our west bouncing the Jet up and then down toward us leading to gale force NE trades. That High is over us into next week as signs of a normal March come into view. TheJet still has plenty energy tho' for some smaller NW swell.
Currently, remant tiny 2.5' NNW swell today with nice lite trades and clean sunny surf. Nothing like its near 15' peak this past weekend. Source: a complex array of Lows form, built and merged Thursday the 6th crossing the dateline nosing to within 600 miles by Friday. This one had a captured fetch as it tracked SE with 32' seas right toward Hawaii. We saw some 12' 15 second NW swells breaking on outer reefs.
Next: This past weekend an ENE tracking strong to near hurricane force 45-65kt Low is in view crossing the dateline. Most the energy will be sent off to our NE but some 4-6' Sideband NW swell with long 16-20sec filling Tuesday. This pulse comes from the early phase of the Low and is harder to predict as its not a direct hit.
Next: the above system garnered the highest winds on its SW flank Sunday-Monday and this fetch should bring bigger 6-8' NNW surf Wednesday with 14 sec.
Next: a new storm spawns off Japan Monday and should have some hurricane force 65kts at its center with 45kts on its SW flank in the 300-320 band for some above advsry WNW swell. Some of these winds are 'captured' as the system moves east. Lets claim 8-12' surf Friday afternoon at 15 sec with some higher sets into Saturday morning. (just below warning levels of 15').
Next: a strong High is building and crossing the dateline and squeezing the above Low in the Aleutians. Gales come to under 600 miles off Friday. So we'll see high NE winds and swell mixing with the NW creating victory at sea surf tho' most the NW swell will cover up the NE wrap.
Last: model show a 55kt low off N Japan this Friday to the Aleutians by Sunday. Surf from this source should fill late tuesday the 18th peaking surf at 6-8' Wednesday with 16 seconds.
Long range forecasts love to fantasize. Meaning they run 'hot' making promises they cant always keep.
The Jet pattern down under is mostly weak and zonal for several days but does start a ENE to NNE flow this weekend enhancing a broad system which should lead to SSW swells in the long range. She break apart next week so we'll once again hit a quite period.
Currently:We have a declining SSW at 1-2.5'...source: storminess east of NZL last week intensifying into Thursday but weakened fast. Still, she hangs out for awhile and is further N than the last storm thus we claim some 15 second, 1-3' SSW surf filling late Tuesday into Wednesday the 11-12th.
NExt: A NE tracking Low spawns SE of NZL Tuesday the 11th with 25-30' seas. She weakens by Wednesday but is fairly broad. We'll go with 1-2.5' surf at 14 seconds from the SSW filling Tuesday the 18th peaking Wednesday at 2-3' surf at 16 seconds and holding into Thursday... lasting a long time thnks to the long reinforcing fetches.
Last: A big Low far to the SE of NZL is seen tracking ENE by strongest Friday the 14th and weakening Sunday. Still, the broad fetch should push up some surf in the 2-3' range late thursday the 20th with long 18 sec forerunners. The peak should be Friday-Saturday at maybe 1' overhead for top spots top sets.
The Windward side see’s tiny 2’ wind swell but for the first time in ages we will see tons of High wind and NE swell starting Friday into next week as a new High comes in from the west and dominating at advsry levels for about a week. The direction will veer from NNE to ENE.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|