Waves, Winds, Weather compliments of The Honolulu Surf Film Festival through 7/31.
Your exclusive SNN Observations for this Wednesday, July 30th 640am
Another beautiful and hot day in Paradise setting up with some typical dry cloudiness windward-mauka. Light Trades filling in 10-20mph. Small 1' high tide 615am drops out to the .4' at 1130am pushing to a big 1.8' High at 6pm
Kaisers, Kewalos (check our new Bowls CAM). There's a hint of S-SE at 1-2' with good conditions and 18 guys out at Bowls. Diamond Head: up a hair and holding on the long period 14 sec S-SW & holding on the S-SE at 1-2' and the occ 2.5' (shoulder high), fairly clean sideoffshore now at Cliffs and Right Hands. Check out our new Diamond Head Cam! Sandy's: Up and holding on the new SSW at 2-3 occ 4' and holding on the SE & trade wrap at solid 1-2' occ 2.5' with good power from Full Pt. to Pipelittles to chambers. East: Makapu'u: Holding on trade swell at 1-2' mostly, (maybe occ 2.5'?) fromAla Moana,
"Surfing is very much like making love. It always feels good, no matter how many times you've done it" Paul Strauch
THE WHERE, WHEN & WHY OF HAWAII’S WAVES & WEATHER: A VIDEO PRESENTATION BY SNN
Winds Statewide in a glance ...go HERE (this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Jul 28, 2014 4:00 AM HST
High pressure far northeast of the state will maintain moderate trade winds across the islands. Showers carried by the trades will affect mainly windward and mauka areas. Winds will strengthen somewhat in the next couple of days.
Rather fair weather continues across the state early this morning, with only a few passing showers affecting windward and mountain areas at times. The usual slight increase in cloud coverage overnight did not really materialize, and this is in lieu of the somewhat typical early morning Lihue and Hilo sounding profiles, in term of PW values. The Lihue sounding revealed a slightly less unstable air mass while the Hilo sounding trended the other way. Latest satellite imagery revealed areas of low clouds just east of the islands early this morning, with high clouds streaming from the south covering the Big Island at times. The incoming low clouds may bring a little more showers to the area later this morning, mainly to windward and mountain areas. An upper level trough will remain near the islands, and will probably keep atmospheric conditions a little unstable. Still expect low level moisture to be limited in the island vicinity today as indicated by forecast models. This will lead to less showers, in terms of areal coverage.
A surface high will remain nearly stationary far northeast of the state through much of this week and will provide trade winds to the state. While little changes are expected with this high, the islands will see a slight increase in winds at times as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat across the area due to the low pressure far south of the area. Forecast models indicate a drier air mass will persist in the island vicinity through the next couple of days. Therefore, typical summer trade wind weather will prevail across the area through the middle of the week, with passing showers focused mainly across windward and mauka areas. Winds may be locally breezy at times.
Latest model solutions are closer in term of the pending possible surge of tropical moisture from the southeast weather scenario. Looks like the bulk of the moisture may reach the Big Island late Thursday into Friday, then spread to the rest of the island chain through the weekend. The islands will experience another bout of muggy conditions, with the potential for heavy rain.
Winds will be near small craft advisory levels for the typically windier coastal waters around Maui and the Big Island at least through the middle of the week. Therefore, a small craft advisory remains in effect for those areas at least through Wednesday.
A series of small southerly swells may bring minor bumps on south facing shores, with a slight increase on Thursday night. Short period trade wind swell will continue across east facing shores, possibly increasing a bit in the coming days as trades strengthen. No other significant swells are expected through the next several days.
BIG SURF PICTURE Friday 7/25/14
The N Jet is and has been zonal and strongest of the two spit branches. There's a slight flow NE off to the SE of NZL Wed-Thursday. A better bigger NE flow is seen today Friday thru the weekend which is good news.
Recent-current: Looking pretty average now with waist high and a few isolated chest high sets from the SSE and tiny 2' SSW. There's been Taz sea sources and off to the East of NZL about 10-14 days ago. Plus a fetch to the SE of Tahiti for our short period SSE which hit pretty solid 3'. The main swell last week 14-18th lasted 5 days solid and hit 6' at some spots will be the best one for July as forecasted. This was a 3 sourced swell that allowed seas to 'add' to eachother. Fairly rare. Really sweet.
Next: We had some fetch hugging Australia in the Taz a week ago plus a storm spinning off the N Island of NZL. The Taz fetch ends up fatting up but with lighter winds. Still a background 1' 14 sec SW fills in later today leading to some 2' sets Saturday and ramping up a notch Sunday-Monday to 3' sets or head high.
Next and Next: The Taz fetch drifts over NZL to it's east coast by Tuesday 22nd as another Low far SE of NZL spins off higher winds for some added 16 second SSW swell a day later bringing back to back swells. The buoy forecast (likely running alittle hot) is 3' 14 seconds hitting midday Tuesday the 29th peaking Wednesday 30th with surf reaching solid 2-4' Hawaiian Scale or 2-3' overhead at top spots top sets (SNN calls the largest range not the average).
NExt and NExt: Surf will climb Wed eve into Thursday and even Friday as another System (with a NE track and captured fetch and 30's seas) adds to the mix off NZL's N coast. If the models pan out late friday should hit 4' and maybe reach 5' Saturday Aug 2nd from the SSW. Fetches can add to existing seas and that's what we're looking for here.
Next to Last: A low forms straight South of us Tuesday the 29th about 1200 miles under Tahiti but tracks ENE out of our window. But bits of it will get here Tuesday Aug 5th into Thursday the 7th from the South with 2' swells and 15 sec forerunners. The peak surf could reach easy 3' for a day and a half.
LAst: A giant storm deep in the TAz is there Wednesday the 30th but the track is east. Models are likely to overcall how much of this get here Wed the 6th. Right now they claim a peak of 3' 18 seconds; more likely 2' swell with long periods for deep water spots.
(See SPAC models HERE)
The Jet stream is above the Aleutians disallowing any WNW-NNW ground swell. Over the weekend however, into next week, we see an effort in the weak Jet to extend off N. Japan all the way to the dateline. This does support a surface Low for another out of season WNW early August. (Details below). By Tuesday the 29th the Jet tilts ENE but with only about 100mph so nada enough for anything. Note: Upper levels also reveal trouhiness over the Islands this weekend past Tuesday which is forecast to assist in a bit more rain fall.
Recent: High pressure domination leads to off and on tiny NE wind wrap up to maybe 2' for isolated spots. Very small 1/2' WNW hints have been in the mix but pretty much unridable.
Next: A tiny weak 25kt Low spawns off Hakkaido N. Japan monday 7/28 tracking East and dissappating Tuesday. A small 0-1 maybe 2’ WNW (305) arrives late Saturday 8/2 peaks at 2' Sunday and fades into Monday. The weak gale storm stays ~2000 miles away and short periods of 10-11 seconds wont do much for power or pizzazz but will make it rideable for a day or two...
Last: nothing out 7 days.
(See NPAC models HERE)
Windward: Wind swell will be average of 1-2+’ with slight variation downward esp Sunday-Monday when the trades freshen. The Tropical systems moving our way will add longer period E to SE swell all week. peaks likely to be 3' maybe 4'.
Tropics: Super active season so far. Another new Typhoon is forming this off the Filipines tuesday with a slow west track. It's huge by Thursday. We also have a Low 1200 miles to the east of the Big Is Sunday. All these storms from Baja are expected to weaken as they near then pass under the Hawaiian Islands next week of the 28th. Tons of East swell tho' not huge.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|