BIG SURF PICTURE 

Saturday 2/4/12

NPAC: Upgrade on Wednesday to the biggest swell of the season: the Winter Jet is  low, consolidated and stretching well past Hawaii; The Jet dips right on top of us next week which will create dramatic shift in weather, waves and winds; storms to be enhanced and steered in this large upper air current;  our winds and weather patterns continue to cycle between trades to lite variables/Konas and even westerlies; right now we're in a westerly flow this weekend then variable Monday then SW Tuesday;  with 15' NW swell Monday and 25' NW Wednesday!

Currently: Its a dropping 14 second 4-7' NNW with poor westerly winds for country. The source was a complex low associated with 'the big one' which reached the dateline last Monday nite tracking past us Tuesday nite; it was a much smaller and fast east tracking Low with some 45kts that lead to 8+' NNW Thursday evening peaking Friday; the angle veers more N-NNW as we can see this weekend. Another fast tracking Low popped near the dateline Wednesday and adding some 5+' N swell Saturday as well.

Next: Wednesday 2/1 a wintery low spawned right off N. Japan's east coast in the 290-310 band but quickly moved ENE and by Sat 2/4 its up in the 300-335band with storm force of up to 55kt winds; the good news is that its seas build to 35' thnks to those high winds and a partially captured or following fetch in the 320-330 band; it gets to 1800 miles away; our waves should be filling in  at 10-12 and by midday even 15' on outer reefs with 16-20 seconds (again, thnks to the high wind speeds) it'll stay at near warnings into predawn of Tuesday. The issue for surfing will be the SW konas.

Next: A special storm kicks in Sunday tracking east from near the dateline 1200 miles to our NW in the 300-320 band; the captured fetch is much closer to us than the preceding systems nosing to under 600 miles out with 30' seas monday. Models now more confident for  15-20' maybe 25' NW on outside reefs (Peahi to hit over 30') on Wedneday; surf will be disorganized due to wide directional spectrum and onshore winds. This event is 10-15' over warning criteria of 25' faces; surf  wiil be near giant and wild, unlike the preceding few swells.

Last: A pair of Lows will be out there by next Friday-Saturday. One to our N and one near the dateline; neither will lead to anything close to the last couple Lows but plan for some below advsry increase of 6' 14 seconds around Sunday-Monday 12-13th.

SPAC: Looks like this is all we'll get. Not much but there is alittle tiny 1.5' open ocean but long period 16 sec SSW in the rare waist from a low off the NZL east coast over a week ago. More minor storm activity could bring the same Monday 2/6 but dont get hopes up.

East or Windward: Trade swell stays weak as we approach end of the week. Winds will be iffy and going variable this weekend and offshore Konas Monday thanks to another front crossing us. Overall itll be down to 2+' North and tiny windswell. Read daily OB’s or call 596-SURF.

FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

For more generic marine definitions click this link  http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

WW3 OUTPUT FORECAST& BUOY QUICK LINKS

400 AM HST SAT FEB4 2012

SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE WILL SPREAD WESTERLY WINDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS MAUI COUNTY FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH ON DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MODERATELY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED LIGHT WINDS
NEAR SEA LEVEL...BUT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLIES TO
NORTHWESTERLIES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONDITIONS OVER THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS REACHED THE CRITERION FOR A WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL REQUIRE
CONTINUED ATTENTION. PRESSURE TRENDS NEAR SEA LEVEL DEPICTED A
GRADIENT TILTING INCREASINGLY IN THE DIRECTION OPPOSITE FROM
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLYING AN INCREASE IN WESTERLIES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE OVER AND AROUND THE STATE WAS BELOW AVERAGE...
AND RAINFALL SPARSE. THE LANGUISHING RIDGE ALOFT MANAGED TO PRODUCE
A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE AT LAST...LOWERING THE INVERSION TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW A TYPICAL HEIGHT.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...POWERFUL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL START TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE STATE IN
EARNEST...WHILE A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL PRESS ON SOUTH INTO THE DISINTEGRATING
SURFACE RIDGE...SO LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS MAUI
COUNTY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM. WITH THE AIR
MASS AHEAD OF IT ON THE DRY SIDE...AND UNIMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...THIS FIRST FRONT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT...AND THE NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND
IT...LIKELY WILL PROVE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT A SECOND FRONT AND THE POWERFUL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD AIR
BEHIND IT AT THE SURFACE. THIS NEW FRONT WILL INVIGORATE THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD...AND THEY WILL PRESS ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
ARCHIPELAGO...REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BY AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND
SURGE...AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF DOWNSLOPING
ALONG SOUTHERLY SLOPES.

TOGETHER WITH ENHANCED SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...AND MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...THE SECOND FRONT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE STATE...THOUGH AT THIS POINT
IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO THREATEN FLOODING. TECHNICALLY...
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT WITH THE GREATEST DYNAMICS AND COLDEST AIR REMAINING FURTHER
NORTH...THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LOW. THE CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE...AND AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO DROP MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT DEEPER
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT VERY EASILY COULD CHANGE THIS OUTCOME.

ONCE THE SECOND FRONT PASSES...MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS BEHIND IT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE COOLER ON AVERAGE
THAN THE ONE PRESENTLY OVER THE STATE...CLOUDIER SKIES ACTUALLY MAY
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS THEN
WILL TEND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS AND
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

Satellite Animations: (Click Here)    Wind & Cloud Cover Models: (Click Here)     Weather Terms Index: (Click Here)

SNN CHIEF SURFING OFFICER: GARY KEWLEY

Your Exclusive 6:45am OBZ: and the surf scene for Aloha Saturday 2/4/12

Winds have a westerly - NW flow early and clear (and cold 65 for the warm blooded Kama'aina).

Country: Up and rising on the new 4-6+  NNW (326); buoys are 5-7' 12-14 seconds; not the best shape or texture at both Sunset 4-6+ and Pipe 3-5'  as lite onshore chop is already on it.  WEST:  Makaha up and rising with fairly smooth 2-4' and likely bigger later but with onshores; it is lining up down the middle; TOWN:  Holding the tiny thight high SSW angle. As of now its 0-1.5 maybe 2' max and smooth; we could see onshores pick up and mush it out at anytime.  Diamond Head:  holding SSE 0-1.5' possible occas weak 2' sets and slightly mushy; SANDYS:  holding the N wrap 1-2+' and pretty clean from Full Pt and occas. into Shorey.  EAST: MAKAPU'U:  Up on N swell and still getting some weak tiny Trade swell at 1-2+  and fairly clean offshores.

Surf News:Our thoughts and prayers are going out to Big wave charger Mel Kinney who suffered a heart attack Thursday up at Sunset. Please send yours too. Mahalo.

NORTH SHORE, Oahu - (Feb. 1st, 2012)  "A hollywood script" (Dave Riddle) The final day of competition at the 2012 Volcom Pipe Pro ended in a spectacular showdown in the last 10-seconds of the 35-minute final with John Florence taking 1st place with a buzzer-beating 9.93 Backdoor barrel. His last wave, together with his earlier perfect 10-point ride, put his combined heat score at 19.93 out of a possible 20 to edge out former Pipe Pro Champion Jamie O'Brien in 2nd, Kai Barger in 3rd and Nate Yeomans in 4th.
RESULTS