Surf Summary & News Breaks sponsored by the VANS Triple Crown of Surfing
Your exclusive SNN Observations for Tuesday 12/10/13 at 640am
The Pipe Masters ON today (Dec 8-20) for the World Title Throw Down, Show Down. Go HERE
Call the official SNN hotline 808-596-SURF daily to get status (on, off or standby).
Cloudy and NE trades starting to return (seabreeze regime pau for now). Two Swells: WNW + NNW reinforcemnt showing on buoys. Oh and a new SSW! High tide 1030 at 1.5' dropping out all day to a minus low at 530pm.
NORTH: Up and holding on WNW/N showing 4-7' for top spots like Sunset at 15 seconds. Pipe about 3-5' and not right angle but with smooth & clean conditions. West: Makaha up and holding on NW and hint of occas SSW at 2-4 with clean smooth lite offshores. Town Side: Ala Moana, Kaisers, Kewalos are up and rising on a new S-SW at 1-2.5' ; buoys showing swells 2' at 15 seconds and this is enough for 3' at top spots. Diamond Head: Up and Rising on a new S-SW 1-3' with lite side offshores. SANDYS: Up on S and Holding north wrap and the East swell and at 1-2' occas 3' with good conditions & light sideoffshore winds. Waves all the way from Half Point to the shorepound with fun sand bars. East: Makapu'u: Holding on north wrap, some easing E swell at 1-2' occas 3' on the right w/ nice lines and light onshores!
Congrats to Zeke Lau - Winner of the Vans World Cup of Surfing at Sunset Beach!
Congratulations to Michel Bourez - winner of the Reef Hawaiian Pro at Ali'i Beach.
Quote of the week: "“I’m feeling pretty relaxed, but I’m sure as the event starts the reality will set in” Slater
THE WHERE, WHEN & WHY OF HAWAII’S WAVES & WEATHER: A VIDEO PRESENTATION BY SNN
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Dec 10, 2013 4:36 AM HST
Moderate to fresh trade winds will return today and Wednesday. East-southeast flow will periods of variable winds will return Thursday through Saturday with isolated leeward showers becoming possible in the afternoons. An approaching frontal system will increase rainfall chances and possibly thunderstorms this weekend into next week.
The short term forecast remains generally unchanged from earlier in the shift. Trades continue to reassert themselves across the forecast area. They will reach moderate-fresh speeds and hold through most of Wednesday. Generally low PW air upstream supports isolated-scattered pops with light intensity maxing out during the overnight hours.
Developing low pressure northwest of Hawaii will induce southeasterly flow again locally thursday-saturday. A hybrid trade/diurnal regime will result with rain chances/intensity increasing towards the weekend as temps/heights fall aloft due to Pacific westerlies dipping into the area once again. Any afternoon convection or even terrain forced showers could become more robust by Saturday as the atmosphere begins to destabilize.
Global guidance remains consistent this morning suggesting another round of signifcant frontal weather this weekend into early next week. The synoptic scale pattern and model agreement is fair enough to at least nudge the long term towards a more unsettled pattern. Have made tweaks the the forecast to reflect increased rain chances and slight chance of thunderstorms sunday-tuesday in a west to east onset/clearing pattern
Chances of moderate diurnal convection increase over the weekend temps/heights fall aloft as a sharpening 500 mb trough moves into the area. Additional surface cyclogenesis along the aforementioned stalled boundary to the northwest will strengthen and force the front eastward likely increasing chances for heavy rain/thunderstorms Sunday into early next week.
Mixed wnw/nnw swell will producing 8-12 ft surf today. The crossed up nature of the swells may produce sets sneaking through up to 14 ft for some areas. A gradual easing trend will follow through early Friday before another large NW swell builds rapidly possibly reaching advisory levels around 15-18 ft by sunrise Saturday. Also a small out-of-season south swell will produce modest surf along south facing beaches tomorrow through Thursday.
Trade winds will be on the uptick over the next 24 to 36 hours and a small craft advisory will go into effect at 6 am for the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island tuesday-wednesday.
BIG SURF PICTURE Tuesday 12/10/13
NPAC Today The Jet is weak and quite for a few days with a loop up and over Hawaii 1200 miles North. Then the Tokyo Express begins taking off from Thursday on. As the Jet Stream drops and deepens it gets elongated off Japan to the dateline. This long range trend will lead to above average WNW swells from about mid December to Christmas. A High sticks around to our ENE. But lotsa troughiness continues over the Islands leading to unstable weather off and on. A typical winter.
Wind and weather: A front approaching from the northwest this evening will weaken to a shear line near the Kauai Channel on Friday. High pressure will develop northwest of Kauai late Sunday as the remnants of the shear line move away to the north.Winds veered to the southeast and variables with more of the same seabreezy pattern through early next week. Details HERE.
Currently: NW waves are pumping and peaking today with perfect SE offshores and ranging 5-7'. The source was a 45-55kt ESE bound Low last Sunday-Monday. But the fetch was short lived limiting size and period.
Next: a new Low popped near the dateline Monday with 25-35kts about 1000 miles away Wednesday. We should get a 4-6' NW push Friday afternoon.
Next: An upgrade on this Low as it strenthens to storm force Wed-thur and moved NNE then stalling friday. Watch for a rise Saturday midday to 6-10' from a more NNW angle. The fetch is long since the system occluded, plus the fetch got to within 900 miles. So we expect solid 8-10 maybe 12' NNW to peak Sunday and only alittle less Monday. A decent chance of a pulse to almost 6-8' tuesday from the same long Lows final fetch.
Next: A weak low near the central Aleutians tracks South sunday Monday and should bring us up to 2-4' thursday the 12th.
Last: Not a great outlook for fat WNW's for Pipe until last days but.... A compact Low spawns near the dateline Wed 12/11 and by Thursday tracks South with 25' seas and a final ESE track coming to only 300 miles away. We could see a N Friday in the high range but not all model concur. so lets wait and see.
Last Last: slight chance of a 10' WNW on 12/19 Thursday. But we must get closer.
The Jet actually took a nice NNE track up toward HI Monday the 25th and supported a Low to follow the same track. The 15 second SSW from this source will only reach 2' and maybe near 3' filling Tuesday and peaking Wednesday on the 4th of December. See below.
Current: SSW of waist high or barely 2'. The tiny background 2' SSW fills Tuesday Dec 3 from a gale Low tracking NE 2 Monday-Tuesday ago. No big deal but it does keep town rideable in Dec.
LAst: long range model fantasy hint of a better 15 second SSW swell filling Monday the 9th. It could get solid 2-3' for 2 days. A Low comes up ENE off the NZL east coast monday Dec 2nd. This is an 'out of season' swell we'd be happy with even during the Summer. Lets wait and see if models and actual winds confirm this Monday.
East Shores: pure upstream trade swell. The Storms passing close to HI are disrupting the usual ongoing trade regime. But the High to the NE is still producing from a distance waves up to 2-3'. This eases hereon.
Tropical: No storms. Thnk God.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|