Surf Summary & News Breaks sponsored by the VANS Triple Crown of Surfing
Your exclusive SNN Observations for Wednesday 12/11/13 at 640am
The Pipe Masters OFF for today. The World Title & Triple Crown Throw Down, Show Down could be Saturday in maxing to closed out Pipe. Go HERE
Call the official SNN hotline 808-596-SURF daily to get status (on, off or standby).
Partly Clear along leeward with the usual light trade wind cloud distribution along windward and maukas; ENE trades are 5-15. NW and SSW's swells down. Low Tides at 8am 0.6 and the High tide 1230 at 1.2'.
NORTH: Down and dropping on WNW/N showing 2-3' for top spots like Sunset pt at 11 seconds. Pipe about 2.5' and with smooth & clean conditions. West: Makaha down and dropping on NW and hint of occas SSW at 0-2' with clean smooth lite offshores later. Town Side: Ala Moana, Kaisers, Kewalos are down and dropping on a the S at 0-1-2' now and still clean; Diamond Head: Down and dropping on a S 1-2' with light sideshore chop. SANDYS: Down and holding on S and Holding north wrap and the East swell and at 1-2' maybe occas +?' with fair conditions & 5-15 side winds. Waves all the way from Half Point to the shorepound with fun sand bars. East: Makapu'u: Holding on north wrap and East swell now at 1-3' on the left mostly with smaller ones on the right w/ nice lines and 5-15 onshores!
Congrats to Zeke Lau - Winner of the Vans World Cup of Surfing at Sunset Beach!
Congratulations to Michel Bourez - winner of the Reef Hawaiian Pro at Ali'i Beach.
Quote of the week: "“I’m feeling pretty relaxed, but I’m sure as the event starts the reality will set in” Slater
THE WHERE, WHEN & WHY OF HAWAII’S WAVES & WEATHER: A VIDEO PRESENTATION BY SNN
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Dec 12, 2013 4:00 AM HST
Trade winds will gradually diminish the next couple of days and turn southeasterly by the weekend as an advancing front stalls briefly west of the state. Light windward showers will continue into the weekend with some afternoon cloud buildups over interior areas of the islands. The front may resume its course to the islands Sunday into early next week, bringing wetter weather and a slight chance of thunderstorms to the state.
An area of low clouds have reached the islands earlier this morning, providing some showers to mainly windward areas. The surface high pressure that has been providing trade winds to the state is moving steadily east early this morning, as a cold front from the northwest pushes closer to the state. This will lead to a decrease in trade winds for the next couple of days over the islands. Early morning Lihue and Hilo soundings both revealed a typical trade wind weather profile, with low level moisture extending to about 6k feet. Air mass is dry and marginally stable. Therefore precipitation from the passing clouds will be limited. Trade wind weather will continue today, with passing clouds and showers affecting mainly windward areas.
Latest forecast model solutions still indicate this approaching front will stall west of Kauai in the coming days. Therefore southeasterly winds ahead of this system will slowly spread over the western islands by the weekend, while more typical trade winds will prevail over Maui county and the Big Island. The western islands may see a hybrid convective and trade wind weather regime, with land and sea breezes becoming more prominent by the weekend. Clouds and possible showers will develop over the interior sections of the islands under day time heating, while night time cooling will result in partial clearing of skies over those islands. Low clouds carried by the winds may still affect the windward areas at times. Maui county as well the Big Island should see more typical trade wind weather, with passing low clouds and showers affecting mainly windward and mountain areas. Volcanic haze from the Big Island may reach the western islands at times under the increasing southeasterly wind flow.
The stalled front is still expected to resume its advance towards to the islands by the later part of the weekend into early next week as another system from further northwest pushes east. The chance of rain will increase over Kauai Saturday night as the front edges closer to the island, then spread over Oahu and Maui county by Sunday into early next week as the front moves east. The atmosphere will also become more unstable over the islands as cold air aloft associated with the front reaches the state, bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday through early next week, with possible heavier rainfall.
The global model solutions diverge somewhat in the extended period over the islands, though both models have another frontal system approaching the state from the northwest. Gfs has a surface trough developing east of the islands, resulting in northeast trade winds over the state while the european model just indicate an area of moisture persist east of the state, with southeasterly winds over the islands ahead of the frontal system. Have sided with GFS at time though this forecast certainly is subjected to change with future model runs
The small craft advisory has been cancelled with the weakening winds. A large NW swell will build rapidly Friday afternoon, bringing possible advisory level surf for north and west facing shores Friday afternoon through Saturday. This swell may be large enough to bring small craft seas conditions to the exposed coastal waters for the weekend.
BIG SURF PICTURE Wednesday 12/11/13
NPAC Today The Jet is weak and quite for a few days with a loop up and over Hawaii 1200 miles North. Then the Tokyo Express begins taking off from Thursday on. As the Jet Stream drops and deepens it gets elongated off Japan to the dateline. This long range trend will lead to above average WNW swells from about mid December to Christmas. A High sticks around to our ENE. But lotsa troughiness continues over the Islands leading to unstable weather off and on. A typical winter.
Wind and weather: Clear and Stable now but a front approaching from the northwest end of the week changes things. So Locally moderate to fresh trade winds will continue through Wednesday then Winds will turn east-southeast Friday into Saturday as a convective pattern returns our late morning seabreezes. Details HERE.
Currently: Tuesday saw 4-6+' WNW mixed with a smaller NNW with ENE trades lead to a great day of comp for the Pipe Masters. Now its just 2-4' max. These swells came from a Low that got close to HI late last week. The Low shifted and had 30' seas out west and sent some more our way. There was also another Low near the dateline Saturday which moved ENE and got close again. This one gave us that great reinforement Tuesday to easy 6'.
Next: An upgrade is claimed. A very big one is on the way. A bigger more powerful storm forms our side of the dateline Wednesday peaking with 55kts and 25-30' seas only 1000 miles off. It tracks ESE with a captured fetch and WW3 predicts 11' swell at 15 seconds. But according to Pat Caldwell Wave Watch 3 have been undercalling closer events recently. We're going to go middle ground and claim 10-15' from the WNW peaking Saturday with surf on outer reefs and the Bay cracking. This will then veer NW Sunday as it fades fast tof 10'...the winds and weather put an 'iffy' on condtions late morning into afternoon.
Last: Models show a broad big Low forming off Japan Monday. Its intensifies and tracks our way covering 1/2 the West Pac Tuesday-Wednesday. 'If' this thing pans out it could produce 'Eddie Aikau' level WNW swell. Shadowing (up to 294 degrees) could be a factor due to this extreme west angle. One way or another we're in for a long lasting spell of very large surf by 12/21 Saturday.
SPAC Current: a fading 1-2+' S to SSW filled Monday and peaked 3' Tuesday. A wide storm far SE of NZL early Dec sending most the swell to our SE but still we did see some fun surf.
LAst: A taz sea swell could show up Friday or Saturday as model show activity last Friday. But no more then 2' SW.
Iffy SSE: there's a wide Low SSE of Tahiti recently and we could see some 2' SSE background sideband surf around Tuesday or Wednesday 17-18.
We go into a flat zone before Christmas.
East Shores: pure upstream 3' trade swell with N mix. The Storms passing close to HI are disrupting the usual ongoing trade regime. But the High to the NE is still producing from a distance waves up to 1-3'. This eases this weekend due to the front.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|