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Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)

Jun 18, 2013 3:45 AM HST

Synopsis
A trade wind weather regime will continue into the upcoming weekend with showers favoring mainly the windward and mountain areas, especially during the nights and mornings.

Discussion
A broad surface high pressure system located 1100 miles northeast of the islands is forecast to remain in that vicinity into the upcoming weekend. Thus, islands will continue to benefit the cooling trades that the high produces. The strength of the trades is slated to ease off slightly by Wednesday night into the moderate range, but it will rebound into the locally strong about the Friday night time frame. This weakening of the trades comes about as the high and associated ridge are being tested by a front that will not influence the islands. The front weakens, and both ridge and high rebuild late in the week resulting in the stronger trades over the weekend, and perhaps days thereafter.

No real significant change in the next 48 hours. The depth of the marine layer is slated to top 8000 feet. The layer will be moist, and with orographic influence and breezy trades, the end result is passing showers favoring the nights and mornings. The source of this low level moisture lies just upwind of the Big Island and Maui, as part of a large cloud mass covering a swath of area between the islands and west coast. The cloud mass starts off as stable stratus off the west coast but become unstable cumulus just upwind of the islands.

Some good news insight. The GFS solution is pointing to a shallower marine layer with the inversion lowering to 5 to 7 thousand feet by Thursday night, thanks to a stronger mid level ridge. The marine layer is expected to be slightly drier, so with that said, we are looking at a drier trade wind regime the second half of the week that may last into the upcoming weekend. There will still be showers, just fewer.

High level cirrus is present over the Big Island this morning thanks to an upper low near Kauai and southerly winds to the east of it carrying moisture northward from the lower latitudes. But as this low fills later today, the cirrus should be moving out.

Marine
The small craft advisory /sca/ is in effect to until 6 am HST Wednesday for the windier places around Maui and the Big Island. The SCA will be monitored closely if it needs to be extended. But the trades are expected to ease slightly by Wednesday night allowing the SCA to be dropped. The trades are expected to firm up by the weekend, with possible SCA conditions returning to the windier coastal waters around Maui and the Big Island. Moderate surf along east shores due to the trade winds.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, the Pailolo and Alenuihaha channels, and waters south of the Big Island.

BIG SURF PICTURE Saturday 6/15/13

NPAC     BIG High pressure to the NE is in place for the summer with fresh to strong and even gale trades into yet another weekend.

Currently: It's tiny 2' sets from the NE wrap at Laniakea with most spots missing it at 0-1'...

Next: we actually see a bit of chance for some fun 'out of season' 12 second NW swell as a broad marginal Gale Low streams east this coming Friday-Sunday. ETA for this event is a rise to 2-3' on Monday afternoon 6/24 peaking 2-4' Saturday fading Sunday onward but still rideable into Monday. Not bad.

(See HERE)

SPAC 

Currently: SSW is 2'...  Buoys popped 1' 20 seconds Wednesday afternoon on a new South to SSW which has reached isolated chest high into Saturday. The source was a fetch far off NZL last Thursday-Saturday on a eastbound Low ending under Tahiti.

The freight train of storms keep their march left to right far south of NZL along the roaring 50-60's so no real swell for HI till maybe 2 weeks out Wednesday 26th if WW3 fantasy plays out.

Next: A large powerful Low moves sideways to our swell window Monday-Wednesday which will ruin our chances of getting anything over 3' around Tuesday 6/18-20th.

Next: long range model output hints a slight chance of 2-4' SSW surf with 15 seconds Thursday 6/27-Saturday 6/29...but this is still fantasy but its has a bit more confidence.

Next: The low prior spawned in the Taz and over NZL Sunday 6/23 and gets its fetch off to the East coast but hugging the coast limiting sea development. But, WW3 suggests the potential 3-5' SSW Saturday or Sunday the last day of June. Again, not likely...yet. 

East Shores: It's on the upside of a summery pattern. The steady Strong High to up NE has whipped up fresh-strong trades nearby and upstream allowing enough fetch to push surf up to 3-4+' along all windward shores and even 2-4' adjacent SE and NE reefs; this uptick Wed into the weekend. We'll see it fade alittle Father's Day and get back to below advsry levels Tuesday.

Tropics: Nothing.

FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link  http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.