Friday, August 29, 2014 596-SURF , 596-WAVE , 922-BONG , 638-RUSH , 572-SURF(MAUI) , 241-SURF (KAUAI) , 324-RUSH (BIG ISLAND)
   
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Winds Statewide in a glance ...go HERE (this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)

Aug 28, 2014 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Trade winds will slowly weaken today and remain light through the weekend, allowing afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to develop over leeward areas. Afternoon and evening clouds and showers will develop over leeward and interior areas, followed by nighttime clearing, while passing low clouds may affect the windward areas at times. Stronger trade winds may return next week.

Discussion
Trade winds continue over the islands early this morning as indicated by surface observations around the state as well as wind profiles from radar data. Radar and satellite data indicate there are some low clouds and showers in the island vicinity this morning, and some of these clouds are reaching the islands, bringing some showers to mainly windward and mountain areas. Early morning soundings from Lihue and Hilo continue to show a marginally stable air mass in the area. Trade winds are expected to hold over the island today, as a surface high pressure remains far north of the state. Passing low clouds and showers will affect mainly windward and mountain areas.

Winds are expected to slowly ease over the next few days as a low pressure system from the east Pacific passes north of the state. Winds will become light enough over the islands tonight to allow land breezes to develop. As such, the diverging land breezes will bring some clearing skies to the state overnight, though low clouds embedded in the light trade wind flow may still affect the windward areas at times. A more convective weather pattern is expected over the islands Friday and Saturday, with clouds and showers developing over the islands in the afternoon and early evening hours under the converging sea breezes, while some clearing may occur at night under the land breezes. Air mass is forecast to remain somewhat stable in the island vicinity as there will be upper level ridging. On the other hand, moisture associated with the passing low pressure system north of the state may bring more clouds and even showers to Maui county Friday night, reaching Oahu on Saturday, and spreading to Kauai late Saturday into Sunday.

The light trade wind scenario will last into early next week.as such, the islands may experience hybrid convective and trade wind weather for the rest of the holiday weekend, with low clouds and showers affecting windward areas at times, while the lee areas may see afternoon and evening clouds and some showers. Stronger trade winds may still return to the islands by the middle of next week, though the wind speeds will stay modest at best. If so, more typical trade wind weather will return to the islands as well.

Marine
Latest data from the near shore buoys just east of Oahu and north of Maui still showed no sign of the anticipated abnormally long-period swell from hurricane Marie early this morning. Still expect this swell to slowly reach the island waters later today, and will bring advisory level surf to east facing shores today through Friday. While surf heights are not expected to be exceptionally high, long period swell energy from the east is somewhat unusual, resulting in normally sheltered windward locales seeing larger long period waves and strong currents.

Latest readings from the near shore buoy just southwest Oahu indicated the south swell has arrived, though swell heights are a tad lower than expected at this time. Still believe this south swell will continue to build today, bringing advisory level surf along south facing shores through Friday. Strong currents will develop in some areas due the interaction between these two swells. The surf from both swells will slowly decline over the weekend.

As winds slowly diminish, no small craft wind conditions are expected through the holiday weekend. However, the long period easterly and southerly swell mentioned above could bring confused seas to areas exposed to both swells.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory from 6 am today to 6 am HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai windward, Kauai leeward, Oahu south shore, Waianae coast, Oahu Koolau, olomana, Molokai, Lanai makai, Kahoolawe, Maui windward west, Maui leeward west, Maui central valley, windward Haleakala, leeward Haleakala, Kona, south Big Island, Big Island north and east.

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