Wednesday, September 03, 2014 596-SURF , 596-WAVE , 922-BONG , 638-RUSH , 572-SURF(MAUI) , 241-SURF (KAUAI) , 324-RUSH (BIG ISLAND)
   
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Winds Statewide in a glance ...go HERE (this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)

Sep 02, 2014 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis Light trade winds will strengthen slightly today, and remain light to moderate for most of the upcoming week. The trade winds will deliver a few showers to windward areas, especially during nights and mornings.

Discussion Latest observations show that a light easterly flow prevails in the low levels, with winds light enough to allow localized land breezes. The winds are being supported by a distant high that is relatively weak, with weak troughs between the high and the islands contributing to a loose pressure gradient, as is the nearly stationary remnant circulation of Marie, about 1300 miles NE of the islands. Although skies immediately upstream of the islands from Kauai to Molokai contain only isolated showers, an area of showery low clouds lies over windward waters out to 200 miles E of Maui and the Big Island, moving W at 10 to 15 mph.

Today, abundant sunshine is expected over leeward areas, while windward areas will be partly cloudy with a few brief showers. Showers/clouds are expected to be a little more active through tonight over windward Maui and Big Island as the aforementioned area of moisture moves W. After this modest moisture source passes, limited moisture is expected through Thursday. Increased moisture loosely associated with the remnant of Marie passing far NE of the islands may increase windward showers from Thursday night through Saturday. A mid-level ridge near the islands will ensure that the atmosphere remains strongly capped at about 8 to 10 kft.

Trade winds are expected to be slightly stronger today as compared to the last 2 days, as the troughs NW of the islands weaken and the surface ridge to the N strengthens somewhat. The overall synoptic pattern does not support a strong trade flow this week however, but rather a light to moderate flow. Therefore, one of the biggest forecast questions over the next couple of days involves the strength of the trade winds, and whether or not afternoon sea breezes will become sufficiently strong/widespread to drive cloud and shower development over leeward and interior areas. Although a slight increase in leeward sky cover is in the forecast grids for the smaller islands today, no significant pops are indicated. Some uncertainty as to how this will verify. The leeward Big Island is the exception, where leeward clouds and showers are expected every afternoon and evening through the forecast period.

Marine Elevated surf will continue along S facing shores this week. Although surf is currently below advisory levels, forerunners of a very long period S swell /20-25 seconds' are expected to build today and tonight, although at low heights. Latest observations from buoy 51004 and the cdip buoy at Barbers Point show initial energy from this swell is beginning to arrive. As this swell fills in, it will produce surf near advisory levels along S facing shores, likely from Wednesday into Thursday. Will hold off on the issuance of an advisory to see if buoy data shows greater amplitude swell heights, but an advisory may be necessary later today for surf nearing advisory levels on Wednesday.

Forecast models are indicating that a fairly large gale low will develop NW of the islands this week, generating a NW swell that arrives around Monday. Since the low has yet to develop, too early for specifics, but resultant surf looks to remain below advisory level heights along N and W facing shores.

Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds at least for the next several days.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories None.

 

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