Thursday, September 18, 2014 596-SURF , 596-WAVE , 922-BONG , 638-RUSH , 572-SURF(MAUI) , 241-SURF (KAUAI) , 324-RUSH (BIG ISLAND)
   
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Winds Statewide in a glance ...go HERE (this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)

Sep 18, 2014 6:57 AM HST

Update
Island skies have cleared early this morning with land breezes pushing most clouds and showers offshore. Expect increasing clouds late this morning and through the afternoon with a chance of showers.

Synopsis
Weak high pressure north of the area will keep light trades across the islands during the next few days. Seabreezes will develop with clouds and showers returning each afternoon and evening, especially over leeward and interior areas. The light winds will also keep generally warm temperatures across the area. Increasing moisture south of the islands may bring an increase in rainfall over the Big Island late in the weekend.

Discussion
Weak sfc high pressure remains located far N of the aloha state, keeping weak trades across the area through at least Sat. A mid/upper level ridge is also located N of the island chain. This synoptic scenario will allow for more seabreeze circulations to develop each day, with periods of clouds and showers during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Meanwhile, models remain in fair agreement regarding a cold front passage across the N central Pacific during the next few days. This front will further erode the high N of the aloha state and enhance the seabreezes. Most the resulting shower activity will include leeward and interior areas. The light winds will also allow for volcanic haze to build around the Big Island, but so far it is not expected to reach the smaller islands as the light winds should still remain generally from the E.

For the long range forecast, models show a possible tropical disturbance passing to the S of the islands by Sun, bringing an increase in moisture and showers over the Big Island. Also, the aforementioned front stalls about a couple hundred miles N of the aloha state and gradually dissipates during the weekend. The presence of the decaying front to the N and the tropical feature to the S may cause an increase in pressure gradients across the area which in turn could bring an increase in trade flow by late Sun and into Mon. Regardless of this scenario, the high should begin intensifying early next week with stronger trades returning by tue/wed. This will bring back a trade wind weather pattern of clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain areas, especially at night.

Marine
Small swells will affect almost all shores through the forecast period. A small but new southwest swell with a long period of 15 to 17 seconds will arrive Friday and continue through the weekend. A small swell from the northeast is due in today, peaking Friday. The current northwest swell will be reinforced by another small northwest swell early next week.

Winds will remain light through most of the forecast period. The trade winds will begin increasing early next week.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.

 

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