Last Updated on Saturday, 13 September 2014 07:28
Winds Statewide in a glance ...go HERE (this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Issued: Sep 13, 2014 4:11 AM HST
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through the forecast period.
A very long period south swell will build through the day. Current readings from buoy 51004 suggest the higher period swell taking over as the dominant period, but heights have not jumped up yet. Surf along south facing shores is expected to reach advisory levels by this afternoon. The surf is expected to remain elevated through Sunday night, before slowly diminishing next week.
Elsewhere, a short-lived moderate northwest swell is expected to arrive late in the day Sunday, and gradually diminish through the first half of next week.
A diurnal land and sea breeze pattern will persist through the middle of next week bringing warm temperatures, afternoon clouds with showers, and clearing during the nights. Additional moisture will move in Sunday leading to more shower coverage, through rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant.
Current satellite and radar shows clouds and showers have increased over the Big Island, and windward Maui and Molokai this morning due to an influx of moisture coming in from upstream. Soundings from this morning shows an elevated inversion of 12000 feet at Hilo and a relatively moist precipitable water value of 1.55 inches. Expecting this moisture to remain over the Big Island today and tonight before transversing westward. Isolated showers are also impacting the windward side of Oahu.
A surface ridge is present over the islands resulting very light pressure gradient and winds. The light wind flow regime will result in warm conditions today. Sea breezes from heating of the land will produce clouds and showers over the interior of the islands from late morning to early evening. The Big Island will see the greatest areal coverage of showers extending up to the higher elevations today. Land breezes will break up the clouds and showers tonight. This diurnal weather pattern will continue through at least the first half of next week.
The models bring varying amount of precipitable water into the islands starting Sunday through most of next week, though the trend is that it will increase. The atmosphere is expected to remain stable, so the additional low level moisture will likely mean an increase in the number of showers for all islands, with most shower activity occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours. It is possible we may see isolated moderate or heavier showers at times, but overall atmospheric dynamics does not support any elevated chance for this.
A large deep layered anticyclone will build slowly eastward from the date line to the north of the state, allowing light to moderate trade winds to gradually return during late next week.