Last Updated on Thursday, 05 December 2013 07:40
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Dec 05, 2013 4:00 AM HST
A ridge near the islands will maintain gentle winds and mostly dry weather over the smaller islands through Saturday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will bring some showers to the windward side of the Big Island this morning, and the trailing end of a front may bring showers to Kauai Friday and Saturday. Ridging aloft will keep the atmosphere stable so rainfall amounts will remain modest through Saturday. The weather may turn wetter on Sunday, especially on the Big Island, as deeper moisture moves over the islands from the southeast.
Surface analyses show a surface high far north northeast of the islands with a ridge extending southwest to a col, or neutral point, about 150 miles northwest of Kauai. The ridge will produce gentle to fresh east winds near the Big Island and light to moderate east southeast winds over the rest of the islands. A band of low clouds moving over the Big Island from the east has produced only scattered light showers and the weather has been mostly dry elsewhere. Clouds and showers over windward area will decrease by this afternoon while clouds and isolated showers develop over interior areas.
The global models are in reasonable agreement through the weekend, showing the trailing end of a front weakening to a shear line as it moves southeast over Kauai on Friday. The shear line will bring moderate trade winds and an increase in showers around Kauai Friday through Saturday morning and it is possible some of the showers could spread to Oahu Friday night. The showers will move off to the northwest on Saturday as the subtropical ridge moves south near the islands and our winds shift out of the southeast.
As the winds shift out of the southeast, an area of moisture associated with a low aloft will spread toward the islands from the southeast. Clouds and showers on the Big Island are expected to increase starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. Some of the clouds and showers may spread to the other islands but details remain uncertain.
Pacioos buoys showed a northwest swell peaking at 6 ft near Kauai at midnight, and on Oahu around 200 am. Surf should remain below the advisory threshold. The wavewatch iii model still shows multiple moderate-sized west northwest through north northwest swells over the weekend. The wavewatch model has not been very consistent with these swells. Latest run of the model shows the biggest swells coming from the north northwest starting Saturday, peaking below the advisory threshold Sunday through Monday, and gradually subsiding through mid-week.
Surf along east shores will remain a bit elevated today, then subside as trade-wind speeds upstream decrease.
The small surf on the south shores will get even smaller through Saturday. A new south swell is expected to arrive Sunday and build into Monday.
A surface ridge will remain near the area through early next week producing moderate to fresh east winds around the Big Island and light to moderate southeast winds elsewhere. An approaching shear line may boost winds to fresh levels near Kauai Friday night.